Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I think he invaded Ukraine because he wanted to increase Russia's power and prestige, the first step in restoring the old Russian empire. The idea that Russia would be defeated was probably unfathomable to him. He was probably thinking the worst-case scenario in February was failing to take Kyiv and maybe Odesa, but still overrunning the Donbas, forming a land corridor and being able to declare a convincing victory with ~10% of Ukrainian territory under Russian control.

I agree! but the statement I was responding to was that Putin absolutely wants to keep the current Russian system in place and not rock the boat, and that's obviously incorrect. Putin has shown since...what, 2008? That he absolutely wants to rock the boat and gain more power, and is willing to risk some things in order to do so. The idea that Putin is in a happy spot and wants to conserve what he has is obviously belied by the facts on the ground. 

 

[Werthead]

Looks like Ukrainian forces are assault Kupyansk and Sen'kove right now, both on the Oskil. That's a widening of the line fairly significantly to the south.

No word on the Slovyansk troops. They've moved out but it's unclear where they have committed. But artillery and HIMARS strikes around Izium seem to be ramping up.

[Which Tyler]

7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It's worth noting that the Americans said that the Ukrainians had been wargaming the Kharkiv offensive for weeks. I get the impression that the Ukrainians had wargamed the Kherson, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia offensives with the Americans and with NATO personnel but had been told not to pursue three offensives at once, as that was too ambitious, so they didn't bother with Kharkiv. But when a recon in force pushed through the lines and found nothing there, they hurriedly pivoted and took advantage of the success to reinforce it, and were even slow to fully exploit it (the southern arm of the offensive stayed still for two days whilst the northern went wild).

So, they had planned this operation as a contingency but weren't necessarily expecting to implement it, but improvised.

More than fair - and you are far more knowledgeable of these things than I

[Werthead]

Russian troops in Izyum on Telegram saying they are preparing for things to get "hot" overnight. Girkin has had some kind of meltdown and has said that the Kharkiv front breakthrough and the (in his view, inevitable) fall of Izyum are the result of treason by the Kremlin.

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, KalVsWade said:

His entire inner circle is powerless. Putin has almost total control in Russia. There was some thought that the oligarchs could wield some power against Putin but the relationship is entirely the reverse; the oligarchs rely entirely on Putin for anything. 

 

I think that's reasonable. At the same time it is almost precisely the rationale given for why Putin would never break the 70 year taboo of war in Europe. 

I guess I don't see how those would falter per se after a nuclear weapon attack, because I don't see how short of actual boots on the ground European powers can escalate particularly further. I guess the best thing they can do is give Ukraine even more weapons but I think from a Russian perspective that's almost certainly the case they're dealing with now, and the notion that Ukraine can get and use F35s any time soon is unlikely. 

No one is ever in complete control of anything. Does Putin fly every plane in Russia? Does he drive every vehicle? Does he manage every business or enterprise in Russia? Does he even attend every departmental meeting within the Kremlin?

Putin may have the illusion of complete control but no chance in hell he actually has complete control.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, maarsen said:

No one is ever in complete control of anything. Does Putin fly every plane in Russia? Does he drive every vehicle? Does he manage every business or enterprise in Russia? Does he even attend every departmental meeting within the Kremlin?

Putin may have the illusion of complete control but no chance in hell he actually has complete control.

Sure, he doesn't have 'complete' control. But his control is certainly stronger than what was implied, and there are no particularly heavy competitors to his reign. It's very difficult for people to even formulate resistance with any degree of success. 

[mormont]

Re: Putin's control. If only someone had written some sort of book where perhaps a character tells a parable about power... 

[Gorn]

45 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russian troops in Izyum on Telegram saying they are preparing for things to get "hot" overnight. Girkin has had some kind of meltdown and has said that the Kharkiv front breakthrough and the (in his view, inevitable) fall of Izyum are the result of treason by the Kremlin.

Well, if the troops from Izyum sector were pulled from the front to participate in Russia's utterly pointless Vostok-2022 military exercise in far Eastern Siberia (as I've seen some pro-Russian sources claim), Girkin might have something of a point.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

This is interesting:

 

[Which Tyler]

What a difference an hour makes (presumably, mostly involving fact checking, rather than actual movement on the ground)

 

[ThinkerX]

How is Putin supposed to be able to continue a military campaign when most of the equipment is nonfunctional mothballed junk and there are no spare parts or new equipment due to sanctions? Likewise, how to keep the Ukrainian war going without ticking off the outlying Oblasts (who appear to have supplied most of the troops) to the point of at least passive rebellion?

[Jace, Extat]

Ukraine had all Spring and all Summer to train and incorporate their reserves. The condition of the Russian infantryman is no doubt pitiable. Poorly equipped, undermanned, and facing an offensive that was probably conceived in the Pentagon. I suspect that all those HIMARS clips we saw over the summer were practice for this offensive. This looks like Uranus in reverse.

[Werthead]

Yasynuvate is significantly to the south of Kup'yansk, overlooking the Oskil. This is a wholesale collapse in the region. Some reports this was partisans rather than the regular military, but if they can do this without anyone stopping them, it's a good sign the Russian presence in the area has evaporated.

This is also not far north-east of Izyum. Assuming the rest of the lines are crumbling like this to the north and west, then Izyum could be encircled very quickly.

Also some reports that although Kup'yansk is not yet taken, the railhead there has come under attack, which will prevent resupply from reach Izyum.

If the Russians don't pull back from Izyum to the Oskil, they could lose a lot of manpower and equipment very quickly.

ETA: Some reports now of LPR militia in Kharkiv Oblast telling the Russians to fuck this for a game of soldiers and are quitting their positions. Optimistic Ukrainian reports that that LPR might now pull all its troops from Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson to focus on defending Luhansk Oblast, which is now in danger of attack.

Also now reports of heavy fighting near Lysychansk. Might be a Russian push to try to offset gains to the north, doesn't sound very effective so far.

 

[SeanF]

14 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yasynuvate is significantly to the south of Kup'yansk, overlooking the Oskil. This is a wholesale collapse in the region. Some reports this was partisans rather than the regular military, but if they can do this without anyone stopping them, it's a good sign the Russian presence in the area has evaporated.

This is also not far north-east of Izyum. Assuming the rest of the lines are crumbling like this to the north and west, then Izyum could be encircled very quickly.

Also some reports that although Kup'yansk is not yet taken, the railhead there has come under attack, which will prevent resupply from reach Izyum.

If the Russians don't pull back from Izyum to the Oskil, they could lose a lot of manpower and equipment very quickly.

ETA: Some reports now of LPR militia in Kharkiv Oblast telling the Russians to fuck this for a game of soldiers and are quitting their positions. Optimistic Ukrainian reports that that LPR might now pull all its troops from Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson to focus on defending Luhansk Oblast, which is now in danger of attack.

 

That’s quite some advance, over just a few hours.

[Werthead]

Avdiivka just outside Donetsk City has been retaken, or it was never taken in the first place and the Russians were talking BS. So their sole success in the entire country in the last 3 days has gone.

[Maithanet]

 

[Maithanet]

wow

 

 

[Which Tyler]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

Yasynuvate is significantly to the south of Kup'yansk, overlooking the Oskil. This is a wholesale collapse in the region. Some reports this was partisans rather than the regular military, but if they can do this without anyone stopping them, it's a good sign the Russian presence in the area has evaporated.

This is also not far north-east of Izyum. Assuming the rest of the lines are crumbling like this to the north and west, then Izyum could be encircled very quickly.

If that's taken, rather than Partisans (big if, at the moment), then more to the point, that's about 6 miles from the 3rd major crossing of the Oskil.
If it's troops rather than Partisans, then, if they can work their way down to Horokhovatka, then they've got all the arteries into Izyum, which will only have farm tracks and country roads to resupply. Yes, the Russians would still have the train track to Lyman - but that's a currently a dead end that way.

[Varysblackfyre321]

10 hours ago, Maithanet said:

wow

 

 

Oh is Putin going to kill him for being captured?

 

Also “orc” from what I understand is used by Ukrainian nationalists as a slur.

[broken one]

41 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Also “orc” from what I understand is used by Ukrainian nationalists as a slur.

It is word for Russian grunt, used by almost everyone there, children and greybeards, from Lviv to Kharkiv and from Chernihov to Melitopol.

Nance explains why (in English):

War is always evil, on war things get stolen, people get hurt etc. but Russian army have not changed its mode of action even by a little bit, it is all exactly the same as it was in 1920 or 1939.