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What were really the chances of success for Viserys or Daenerys if the original plan with Khal Drogo had come to fruition ?


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The plot always involved the Dragons. It is known that the Dothraki are waiting for their own version of the Prince Who Was Promised. Theirs is called the stallion who will mount the world. Which in reality is a dragon rider.    
The plot would put Viserys on the throne but it would have taken years. The war of the 5 kings happened sooner than planned.  It was to be the nail in the Baratheon and Stark coffins. 

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6 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

It is known that the Dothraki are waiting for their own version of the Prince Who Was Promised. Theirs is called the stallion who will mount the world.

I don't think there is enough evidence to say they are the same myth. One of them is about saving the whole world from darkness, the other about someone uniting all Dothraki and killing all their enemies (which doesn't sound like saving the world).

6 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

It was to be the nail in the Baratheon and Stark coffins. 

More like it would have been the nail in the Targaryen coffin, invading Westeros with a horde of murderous savages under Viserys the second mad king to slaughter and pillage the innocent would prove once and for all that their line was irrecoverably tainted with madness and cruelty. Lords, smallfolk and faith alike would reject them and it is unlikely they would see much success anyway.

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Thinking about it, Viserys or Drogo I don’t think could of won.

To keep this post briefer I won’t show my working out but basically if I use a non canon but representative timeline off google I can guess when Viserys would land..... Illyrio says that Viserys won’t get his army(if he was even promised it) after Dany is presented to the Dosh Khaleen in Vaes Dothrak and then I omens favor war, so I’m saying if Viserys didn’t die then the attempt on Dany life would still go ahead and Drogo would favour war. Viserys said he only needs 10,000 Dothraki to sweep the kingdoms so I’ll guess Drogo appoints one of his Kos to lead them while Drogo, Dany and baby chase down Khal Ogo. So I choose Ko Pono to lead Viserys and 10,000 back to pentos. I’m stuck here with if Viserys would order Jorah to stay with his sweet sister as her Westeros sworn sword in the savage land or realise he needs Jorah to translate and earn the respect of the army....I’m going to go with protect his sister. If they leave when they left on the main series and take the same time to get back across the Dothraki sea then Ser Baristan Selmy will still be at Pentos and he can join the army(and strong Belwas, Groleo etc but they’re not important) I then imagine Illyrio sends them south to meet up with JonConn, YG and The GC (As Ser Tristan believed this was the plan, although he said 50,000 but as they invaded with zero Dothraki in main series I imagine they will still invade) and then set sail with 10,000 Dothraki and 10,000 Golden Company with elephants.

If they take as long as Tyrion does on his “slow” journey to Volon Therys and then as long as the GC did to sail then roughly they’ll land in stormlands (I imagine they’ll still follow this route as JonConn is still high ranking) then take Griffins Roost then depending on “the guile” he plans on taking Storm End.

If that happens Viserys is in a good position, a solid fortress and more than likely Dorne(with an alive Oberyn and Quentyn) and who knows which ambitious houses join especially as this was just after the battle of black water but then of course will loyalties split if YG is revealed and Tywin and Mace are in KL, Stannis, Rob and Balon alive....although each have got there own problems I imagine a foreign army would unite the realm or at least some of the kings. Viserys 3’s day’s were numbered.

 

IF Viserys dies and Drogo doesn’t die so he proceeds to gather slaves and drives them to slavers bay where his whole Khalasar of 100,000? Including 40,000 warriors. Board ships and sail to Westeros. I imagine once again that Groleo, Strong Belwas and Ser Barristan meet them in Volantis and then join JonConn, YG and The Golden Company and continue with JonConn’s stormlands plan. Going off how long The google timeline estimates Victarian’s journey even then they would land, take Griffins Roost Before the battle of black water so may need to delay but Drogo might be tempted to attack and then they would perish after battling Stannis black water army and then Tywin and mace arrive.

Basically  I believe unless the characters know what we know then neither Drogo or Viserys can win, at this stage. Of course this is all my opinion and can have holes poked through it with ease.

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Just another thought;

Are Dothraki ill equipped to besiege?

on the face of it and army of light Calvary almost leaning to undisciplined would suggest so but then Vaes Dothrak has Buildings from lands conquered, monuments, Holy symbols, God’s, Kings, heroes, Maidens and monsters plundered.

”trash of dead cities” 

“ruined cities and regions ring the vast plains of the Dothraki sea” 

“Four Hundred years ago, rode out of the east sacking and burning every town and city in their path”

The Kingdom of Sarnor, Kingdom of the Ifequeuron and Qaathi cities all fell so they must have some knowledge in successful siege warfare .....No?

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33 minutes ago, CassDarry said:

The Kingdom of Sarnor, Kingdom of the Ifequeuron and Qaathi cities all fell so they must have some knowledge in successful siege warfare .....No?

I thought this but then their attack on Qohor amounts to just charging at the walls so I really don't know. I don't think Daenerys or anyone ever mentions them having siege engines which they presumably would need to take any castles.

Some of the statues could be made by slaves rather than plundered or have been offered as tribute.

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On 8/21/2022 at 8:39 PM, Finley McLeod said:

Hypothetical questions are common in fan forums.  I am not surprised to see this.  It is like wondering what would happen if the US revolution had failed or Japan won WW2.  It isn't the story written by George R. R.Martin though. The real story goes with Viserys died and Westeros passed to his heir, Dany.  That is the story we have and it is a good one.

Varys is not one to take dangerous chances.  He would make sure Robert, Renly, Ned, and Stannis are dead before Viserys and his Dothraki friends arrive.  The loyalties of the nobles and the people will have been bargained for even before Viserys sets foot on the sands of his family's capital.  The Dothraki's real purpose was to attack the resistance and kill them all.  The resistance will come from Robb, Hoster, and Lysa.  People we don't like. 

 

Those Starks and stags went down hard even without Varys. The boar unwrapped Robert and Ned was publicly executed after admitting to treason. Robb and Jon were idiots. They could not have stopped a Dothraki invasion. Their smallfolk armies would have turned tail and looked for the nearest place to hide. 

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4 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Robb and Jon were idiots. They could not have stopped a Dothraki invasion. Their smallfolk armies would have turned tail and looked for the nearest place to hide. 

If the invasion happened at the start of the War of the Five Kings, it won't just be Robb and Jon stopping the Dothraki, it would be Stannis, Renly and Tywin. If they are stupid enough to attack the Vale then they have to deal with their troops as well, knights in particular. These knights are clad head to toe in thick steel, as we've seen from fights with arakhs before the Dothraki struggle with this. Not to mention the knights have been trained their entire lives to fight so aren't comparable to the smallfolk levies.

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On 8/23/2022 at 5:01 PM, Angel Eyes said:

How? The Dothraki wouldn't respect Viserys and they'd be the lynchpin of his invasion.

Whether they respect him or not is not an issue. Drogo made a deal. The khalasars will honor the deal. Robert and Ned will go down fighting. Joffrey and Tommen will be castrated.  Robb, Sansa, Bran, and Rickon will be forced to leave Winterfell. Robb and Greywind will die from an arakh. Sansa and Arya will be married to the lords who supported King Viserys III. Bran will be a sad invalid who will have to depend on Hodor. Snowhead, ironically, will be safe at the wall. 

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I feel like some people still aren't understanding the inherent difficulty the Dothraki will face in terms of terrain and climate, and the fact that associating with them is in no way positive for the Targaryen dynasty.

26 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Robb, Sansa, Bran, and Rickon will be forced to leave Winterfell. Robb and Greywind will die from an arakh. Sansa and Arya will be married to the lords who supported King Viserys III.

Please tell me how the Dothraki will even reach Winterfell in the first place.

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1 hour ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Whether they respect him or not is not an issue. Drogo made a deal. The khalasars will honor the deal. Robert and Ned will go down fighting. Joffrey and Tommen will be castrated.  Robb, Sansa, Bran, and Rickon will be forced to leave Winterfell. Robb and Greywind will die from an arakh. Sansa and Arya will be married to the lords who supported King Viserys III. Bran will be a sad invalid who will have to depend on Hodor. Snowhead, ironically, will be safe at the wall. 

We are talking about people who only follow strength, and Viserys is not only weak but he does not understand he is. If and it is a big if, the dothraki cross the Narrow see they will follow they're leader and it must be a pretty powerfull one, I dont see the Dothraki crossing if Drogo does not lead them. And as it happened in the real timeline, if he dies well the khalasar breaks. So if something happens to Drogo or is deputy if he somehow manage to make them follow a Ko across then the Dothraki will completely abandon Viserys since the deal is between Drogo and Viserys and only stand till Drogo rides.

So no, the Stark would not be destroyed neither would the Lannister for that matter, they migth defeat a army or two but they will be bled dry even before Winter comes. And Winter would be the end of the Dothraki.

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13 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

We are talking about people who only follow strength, and Viserys is not only weak but he does not understand he is. If and it is a big if, the dothraki cross the Narrow see they will follow they're leader and it must be a pretty powerfull one, I dont see the Dothraki crossing if Drogo does not lead them. And as it happened in the real timeline, if he dies well the khalasar breaks. So if something happens to Drogo or is deputy if he somehow manage to make them follow a Ko across then the Dothraki will completely abandon Viserys since the deal is between Drogo and Viserys and only stand till Drogo rides.

So no, the Stark would not be destroyed neither would the Lannister for that matter, they migth defeat a army or two but they will be bled dry even before Winter comes. And Winter would be the end of the Dothraki.

How do you think knights would fare against Dothraki?

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There is the possibility that a Dothraki Invasion in the middle of the War of the Five Kings could actually have a unifying effect as everyone teams up temporarily to destroy the murderous, savage horde. It could even lead to a Great Council to decide who is King. Or perhaps people would still be unable to put their grievances aside.

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6 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

How do you think knights would fare against Dothraki?

I guess it would depend on the leaders of the army's, the terrain and if we have a typical westerosie army against a typical dothraki one. 

If it is only knights against dothraki, the dothraki could defeat the knigths has long has the knigths dont make contact. The moment the knigths make contact the dothraki are done for, you can be the best rider and extremely quick, full plate armour wins every day against a grass shirt.

If we are talking a actual westerosi host againts typical dothraki army then it is not even fair and the Westerosi would oblitare the khalasar, pinning them down with heavy infantery and pikes will archers outmatch mounted archers, leaving them open to a heavy cavaleri charge that would completely break any khalasar.

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1 minute ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

If it is only knights against dothraki, the dothraki could defeat the knigths has long has the knigths dont make contact. The moment the knigths make contact the dothraki are done for, you can be the best rider and extremely quick, full plate armour wins every day against a grass shirt.

I was imagining a funny scenario where the Dothraki somehow landed while Stannis and Renly were preparing to do battle, and if Renly and co. could direct their cavalry charge towards the Dothraki instead, as they would probably be seen as a greater threat than Stannis. The Dothraki bows could be an issue at a distance, but as you said I think they'd be hard pressed to withstand knights charging when they actually made contact, because they don't have a good way of getting through the plate mail.

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10 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I was imagining a funny scenario where the Dothraki somehow landed while Stannis and Renly were preparing to do battle, and if Renly and co. could direct their cavalry charge towards the Dothraki instead, as they would probably be seen as a greater threat than Stannis. The Dothraki bows could be an issue at a distance, but as you said I think they'd be hard pressed to withstand knights charging when they actually made contact, because they don't have a good way of getting through the plate mail.

Dothraki bows, outside of the rare dragonbone ones are supposedly weaker then the standard longbow of Westeros, so I dont even think the would be that much of a threat as long has foot archers are in range.

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2 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

Dothraki bows, outside of the rare dragonbone ones are supposedly weaker then the standard longbow of Westeros, so I dont even think the would be that much of a threat as long has foot archers are in range.

I don't think Renly had much or any foot archers right there with him, though he does have the Storm's End garrison who would almost certainly be armed with such. Would this be enough?

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10 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't think Renly had much or any foot archers right there with him, though he does have the Storm's End garrison who would almost certainly be armed with such. Would this be enough?

Oh I was speaking more generally, in your scenario I dont think the dothraki would land near 2 enemy armies, since that would all but guarantee the would be charged at before they would have completely disembarked and would have been massacre on the beach. But if it still happen I would think that Renly would pull back and wait for is infantery, since it could be reinforcement for Stannis from is perspective. From Stannis POV, well he would most likely have sent is fleet to smash that unknow threat. And we all know how the Dothraki would do in the water.

So yeah if they just disembarked on the beach Renly would annhilate them before they could mount they're horse and get to dry ground.

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2 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Whether they respect him or not is not an issue. Drogo made a deal. The khalasars will honor the deal. Robert and Ned will go down fighting. Joffrey and Tommen will be castrated.  Robb, Sansa, Bran, and Rickon will be forced to leave Winterfell. Robb and Greywind will die from an arakh. Sansa and Arya will be married to the lords who supported King Viserys III. Bran will be a sad invalid who will have to depend on Hodor. Snowhead, ironically, will be safe at the wall. 

Prove it. It's made abundantly clear that Drogo's khalasar didn't respect him; and once he put a sword to Daenerys' womb, it was a death sentence.

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2 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Drogo made a deal. The khalasars will honor the deal.

Drogo and the khalasar (only his khalasar is involved) should not be treated as a unanimous entity. As Vaegon the dragonless said, as soon as Drogo dies the deal is off. His successor(s) are under no obligation to fulfill Drogo's part of the deal. I know Jorah thinks Dothraki are true to their word, but I don't think Drogo ever really intended to honour the deal anyway. Illyrio has this to say:

Quote
"Yes, but when?"
"When the khal chooses," Illyrio said. "He will have the girl first, and after they are wed he must make his procession across the plains and present her to the dosh khaleen at Vaes Dothrak. After that, perhaps. If the omens favor war."

So it basically sounds like Drogo is never going to help Viserys, at least not for a really long time. And even if Drogo decides to cross he may face contention from other Dothraki who don't want to cross the 'poison water'. It could cause a rift in the Khalasar.

Also, we shouldn't assume that the Targaryens are just suddenly going to get all this extra help as soon as they arrive.

Quote
"They are your people, and they love you well," Magister Illyrio said amiably. "In holdfasts all across the realm, men lift secret toasts to your health while women sew dragon banners and hide them against the day of your return from across the water." He gave a massive shrug. "Or so my agents tell me."
Dany had no agents, no way of knowing what anyone was doing or thinking across the narrow sea, but she mistrusted Illyrio's sweet words as she mistrusted everything about Illyrio.

Sounds suspect.

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2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Also, we shouldn't assume that the Targaryens are just suddenly going to get all this extra help as soon as they arrive.

I think alot of people grossly over-estimate how much support the Targaryen still have, Robert did a pretty good job at uniting the realm behind him, the Greyjoy rebellion insured it. The Targaryen certainly have support, mainly in parts of the Riverlands and in the Reach but the Riverlands where mostly pro-robert and the targaryen loyalist were reduced quite a bit.

And for the Reach well some lords would defenitly support them, I believe chief among them would be the Rowans, but the Tyrells and the power bloc around them (Hightowers, Redwyne, Fossoway) would go for the better opportunity and will Robert is alive well he is, then Renly is a good prospect for them until magic kills him. Now the Lannister are a bad alliance because of Cersei complete incompetence but it is they're best bet to gain power. Dorne seems like the only truly loyal place and it is more about vengeance for Elia then actual loyalty.

But I also believe that the situation at the end of the last book will make alot of Targaryen supporter, after all the Baratheon are all but finished, the Lannister decapited and they're is a huge power vaccum that the faith and Ironborn are using. For many lords who would supported Robert, now the Targaryen prospect seems quite a bit brigther, but it is the situation that will make those supporter, not a sense of loyalty.

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