Jump to content

What were really the chances of success for Viserys or Daenerys if the original plan with Khal Drogo had come to fruition ?


Recommended Posts

Just now, Vaegon the dragonless said:

But I also believe that the situation at the end of the last book will make alot of Targaryen supporter, after all the Baratheon are all but finished, the Lannister decapited and they're is a huge power vaccum that the faith and Ironborn are using. For many lords who would supported Robert, now the Targaryen prospect seems quite a bit brigther, but it is the situation that will make those supporter, not a sense of loyalty.

I agree. Aegon is a much more palatable candidate than Viserys. Also his association with the golden company is less bad then associating with Dothraki, though I think it may make a few people suspicious that he is a Blackfyre.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I agree. Aegon is a much more palatable candidate than Viserys. Also his association with the golden company is less bad then associating with Dothraki, though I think it may make a few people suspicious that he is a Blackfyre.

Aegon is a double edge blade, on one hand he actual is a better person in all aspect then Viserys and I would say he could be quite alot better then Daenerys, but his association with the GC means that he will take quite a bit of land to give and give back to those men, something that alot of family's that gained from the Blackfyre rebellion's would not be in favour. But at least the GC is mostly westerosi and would not be seen has foreign barbarians.

I dont think people will think he is a Blackfyre, but more of a fraud, but people can just forget is doubtfull origin if it is to there advantage, and many will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Vaegon the dragonless said:

Im not sure about that, the Targaryen's and the faith have a very rocky history,I wouldnt be surprised if the faith will oppose them once more for being "spawns of incest"

That's true but Aegon himself technically isn't from an incestuous union as his parents weren't siblings and the Faith's other options are Stannis the Sept Burner and Tommen who is also rumoured to be spawn of incest. Though they may feel compelled to support Tommen since Cersei foolishly rearmed them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's true but Aegon himself technically isn't from an incestuous union as his parents weren't siblings and the Faith's other options are Stannis the Sept Burner and Tommen who is also rumoured to be spawn of incest. Though they may feel compelled to support Tommen since Cersei foolishly rearmed them.

But he would be from a line of incest and planning to continue that with Daenerys, at least Tommen will not marry is sister or is aunt. And from when Cersei and the High Sparrow meet I get the idea that he really disliked the idea of the faith loosing so much of its privilege because of the Targaryen. Stannis of course is a big no-no.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

planning to continue that with Daenerys

He might end up marrying someone else as Daenerys is stuck in Meereen still.

6 hours ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

the idea that he really disliked the idea of the faith loosing so much of its privilege because of the Targaryen

I agree that he didn't like that the faith lost its former power, but I don't know if it was dislike specifically directed towards the Targaryens. Maybe he would support Tommen after all as he is a child ruler so easy to influence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The High Septon may prefer a child like Tommen, but Tommen is himself a product of incest and Varys may be keeping Tyrek or another proof in the salt (since keeping food around salt was the closest thing to a fridge in medieval times) to achieve to convince the opinion of his and his siblings' true parentage and achieve to discredit the Lannisters regime, not counting Cersei's future actions and attempts to get revenge on him for the imprisonment and walk of shame inflicted on her.

And there's also the tragic possibility of Tommen being murdered by either Nymeria or Tyene Sand. 

I also don't think that Daenerys will be viewed of a good eye due to her affiliation with the Dothraki, Unsullied, other ex-slave soldiers (though westerosi won't see the ex- part), and Red Priests too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And there's also the tragic possibility of Tommen being murdered by either Nymeria or Tyene Sand. 

I really want poor Tommen to remain unscathed but I don't think it will happen. If one of those two do kill him I hope they get their just deserts for killing an innocent child. The scene where he is playing with his kittens and talking about it with Cersei is just so cute.

8 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I also don't think that Daenerys will be viewed of a good eye due to her affiliation with the Dothraki, Unsullied, other ex-slave soldiers (though westerosi won't see the ex- part), and Red Priests too.

I agree.

I am undecided as to whether Varys isn't helping the realm and knows it or whether he really believes he is even though he's not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I really want poor Tommen to remain unscathed but I don't think it will happen. If one of those two do kill him I hope they get their just deserts for killing an innocent child. The scene where he is playing with his kittens and talking about it with Cersei is just so cute.

I agree.

I am undecided as to whether Varys isn't helping the realm and knows it or whether he really believes he is even though he's not.

The Sand Snakes, at least the older ones, are very hardly nice persons, being cruel and vicious being and Nymeria has already made clear her intent to kill Tommen against Doran's objections that he never did anything to their family. It's 

Though I think that karma will catch up with them, and that they will suffer after Daenerys' arrival to Westeros with the Second Dance. Unlike their cousins and uncle, and Myrcella they'll definitively deserve what should happen to them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Prove it. It's made abundantly clear that Drogo's khalasar didn't respect him; and once he put a sword to Daenerys' womb, it was a death sentence.

The deal was made. The Magister didn’t get rich by making deals with people who are not going to keep it. The Khalasars would have crossed the Narrow Sea, impale Robert on a stake and given him a bad case of hemorrhoids. Ned would be dead before the Dothraki arrival. Stannis and Renly will be dead as well, and dragged behind Drogo’s stallion. Nude. 
 

Robert, a warrior, feared the Dothraki. For good reasons. He knew they could take Westeros by force. That is an opinion coming from a man who knows war. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Khalasars would have crossed the Narrow Sea, impale Robert on a stake and given him a bad case of hemorrhoids. Ned would be dead before the Dothraki arrival. Stannis and Renly will be dead as well, and dragged behind Drogo’s stallion. Nude. 

Do you have any actual proof that they could do this?

From what we actually see of the Dothraki, they struggle against armour, don't like crossing the sea, seemingly have no siege engines so will struggle against castles and have no respect for Viserys. Please explain how they can even reach Renly and Stannis. Is Stannis just going to sit there on Dragonstone and let them all pass? Are all those hostile to Viserys just going to stand there and let themselves be killed? No, Stannis would attack them with the royal fleet while they are crossing, Robert and Renly could take refuge in their castles if needed etc. Why would Ned just suddenly die before the Dothraki make landfall? Because you don't like him?

And there was only one khalasar involved, Drogo's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Robert, a warrior, feared the Dothraki. For good reasons. He knew they could take Westeros by force. That is an opinion coming from a man who knows war. 

Robert is more worried about lords joining Viserys with the Dothraki, not really the Dothraki themselves.

Quote

"If the beggar king crosses with a Dothraki horde at his back, the traitors will join him."

All they have to do is stop the Dothraki from crossing, which, given their complete inexperience with naval warfare and the sea, wouldn't be too difficult.

Quote
Robert snorted. The anger was leaving him as suddenly as it had come. "This Khal Drogo is said to have a hundred thousand men in his horde. What would Jon say to that?"
"He would say that even a million Dothraki are no threat to the realm, so long as they remain on the other side of the narrow sea," Ned replied calmly. "The barbarians have no ships. They hate and fear the open sea."
Quote

"He will not cross," Ned promised. "And if by some mischance he does, we will throw him back into the sea."

Quote

"The narrow sea would still lie between us. I shall fear the Dothraki the day they teach their horses to run on water."

Quote

To the Dothraki, water that a horse could not drink was something foul; the heaving grey-green plains of the ocean filled them with superstitious loathing. Drogo was a bolder man than the other horselords in half a hundred ways, she had found … but not in this. If only she could get him onto a ship …

If by some miracle they do land, all they have to do is avoid fighting them on an open field, and even then they could probably still beat them by using knights.

Quote

"He is a strong man, brave … and rash enough to meet a Dothraki horde in the open field. But the men around him, well, their pipers play a different tune. His brother Stannis, Lord Tywin Lannister, Eddard Stark …"

 

The Dothraki are not the invincible super warriors some people seem to think they are.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Dothraki aren't the Mongols led by Genghis Khan and his loyal Subutai (one of the greatest generals of all times). 

They don't have the discipline, the heavy cavalry, the auxilaries, the siege equipement and experience and more complex tactics that medieval mongols had, and even the mongols weren't invincible as mameluks and european armies were able of matching and even defeating them with the right commanders and strategy/tactics. 

Having only light cavalry and horse archers isn't going to fare well too long against castles, knights in heavy armor, heavy infantry with pikes, haldberds and shields and longbowmen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The deal was made. The Magister didn’t get rich by making deals with people who are not going to keep it. The Khalasars would have crossed the Narrow Sea, impale Robert on a stake and given him a bad case of hemorrhoids. Ned would be dead before the Dothraki arrival. Stannis and Renly will be dead as well, and dragged behind Drogo’s stallion. Nude. 
 

Robert, a warrior, feared the Dothraki. For good reasons. He knew they could take Westeros by force. That is an opinion coming from a man who knows war. 

And Viserys bungled the plan by being too impatient. Not to mention he would have shot the whole plan in the foot had he raped Daenerys like he wanted to the night before her wedding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Robert, a warrior, feared the Dothraki. For good reasons. He knew they could take Westeros by force. That is an opinion coming from a man who knows war. 

More like, for no reason at all. As Terror points out:

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The Dothraki aren't the Mongols led by Genghis Khan and his loyal Subutai (one of the greatest generals of all times). 

They don't have the discipline, the heavy cavalry, the auxilaries, the siege equipement and experience and more complex tactics that medieval mongols had, and even the mongols weren't invincible as mameluks and european armies were able of matching and even defeating them with the right commanders and strategy/tactics. 

Having only light cavalry and horse archers isn't going to fare well too long against castles, knights in heavy armor, heavy infantry with pikes, haldberds and shields and longbowmen.

And in fact, even the Mongols did not fare very well against knights and castles - despite having siege weapons and heavy cavalry. So more I think about it, more I believe that the original plan was basically set up to get them both killed, as despite what Jorah Mormont may think, Dothraki stand no chance against Westerosi.

However, it is not that simple. As Peaches pointed out:

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Robert is more worried about lords joining Viserys with the Dothraki, not really the Dothraki themselves.

It might also be that Dothraki were merely a prop designed to make Viserys look credible by giving him an army. And while I don't think many Westerosi lords would have found Dothraki a "credible force", it may have been enough to turn the Robert-hating lords away from him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The Dothraki aren't the Mongols led by Genghis Khan and his loyal Subutai (one of the greatest generals of all times). 

They don't have the discipline, the heavy cavalry, the auxilaries, the siege equipement and experience and more complex tactics that medieval mongols had, and even the mongols weren't invincible as mameluks and european armies were able of matching and even defeating them with the right commanders and strategy/tactics. 

Having only light cavalry and horse archers isn't going to fare well too long against castles, knights in heavy armor, heavy infantry with pikes, haldberds and shields and longbowmen.

As the Unsullied would show against the Dothraki. A phalanx against cavalry wound up beating the cavalry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think they had a shot, why not?

The traitors will rise, undoubtedly. Mainly Dorne but it's hard to imagine Robb and Edmure siding with Lannister over anything. Lysa won't fight because she just won't. So out of the great houses alone a Targaryen invasion looks promising, then all the minor houses may make an early play as well like Tully and later Tyrell did last time.

Castles huh? Westerosi themselves aren't great at capturing them, look at the Frey's siege of Riverrun in affc for example. But also look at thrice captured Harrenhal, twice Winterfell, twice Stormsend. Eventually Riverrun. All through trickery and guile. It's not unreasonable to assume Targaryen and Dothraki are incapable of bribing the one legged cook.

And Dothraki are mean spirited? Well the last time Targaryen tried this instead of Dothraki they had dragons. I think Westerosi can expect a little meanness with a Targaryen invasion.

 

The way I see it is Aerys lost because his army is actually other people's armies. Aside from the GC the king only commands seven swords, it was ok when there were dragons too but now there's not and the king must rely on his subordinates which isn't always great.

So even if the Dothraki can't compete with a standing army, well they won't have to, that's someone else's job. They're there for quick raids and to spread terror and absolutism. Like dragons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are a lot of moving parts.  What kind of general was Khal Drogo?  Would he just send his riders into suicidal charges head on, against heavy infantry?  Or would he flank them, try to cut off their line of retreat, shower them with arrows, while staying out of range?  Did he understand the importance of recruiting mercenaries who understood siegecraft?  Would his riders collaborate with heavy horse and heavy infantry?

The intention was, presumably, that his riders link up with the Golden Company, and disaffected lords of Wateros, so given that, the invasion might well have succeeded. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SeanF said:

There are a lot of moving parts.  What kind of general was Khal Drogo?  Would he just send his riders into suicidal charges head on, against heavy infantry?  Or would he flank them, try to cut off their line of retreat, shower them with arrows, while staying out of range?  Did he understand the importance of recruiting mercenaries who understood siegecraft?  Would his riders collaborate with heavy horse and heavy infantry?

The intention was, presumably, that his riders link up with the Golden Company, and disaffected lords of Wateros, so given that, the invasion might well have succeeded. 

Hopefully he'd be smarter than to just run them into a wall of infantry (read: the Long Night).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...