Better Metal Metaphors for the Baratheon Brothers

[Craving Peaches]

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Don't agree... I think that Donel was closer to that reality

Fair enough.

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Melissandre controls Stannis better than anyone controlled Robert for example.

I agree, but I also don't think Robert was that difficult to manipulate either. Cersei gets Robert to do exactly what she wants, to compete in the melee, just by using reverse psychology, and Robert is only prevented from competing be Eddard and Barristan. Ned thinks:

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The eunuch had hit upon a truth; tell Robert Baratheon he could not, should not, or must not do a thing, and it was as good as done.

I agree with your other points about Robert.

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

in his position would have won the war in a single swoop by taking King's Landing, but instead he decided to play tourney and let the realm burn, while he starved the city that would be his future capital.

He is besieging King's Landing because it is under hostile Lannister control, it is just a normal warfare thing. If he attacks it he needlessly looses troops as he is sieging it just fine from afar with no loses on his side. He is either besieging or attacking his future capital, so he can't really win there. I don't think he's letting the whole realm burn, only his enemies, by allowing them to fight each other. The plan was to let the Starks and Lannisters wear each other down, making his advantage in numbers better and better. He is conserving his own strength while his enemies weaken each other. The tourneys are good for moral, they keep troops entertained and stop them being bored, and they are a good training exercise.

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Mostly because Stannis is showing that he can bend pretty well, and he does every time the law points to him. He is great a judging others but he is incapable of taking responsability for his deeds, he bends the morals and laws better than anyone else to justify himself. Kinslaying? well I wasn't awake... even though I took part in a weird ritual and have memories of killing my brother in the dream. "I would never hurt the boy, he is my nephew" than proceeds to try to burn him alive... 

Haha this is very true. Man of Iron, morals of...tin?

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

his thoughs on Brienne

I am not sure if Loras is the most reliable source when it comes to Renly's thoughts on Brienne - I always got the sense he was jealous that she beat him in the melee and so forth. Actions speak louder than words, at any rate we see that Renly was only ever courteous to Brienne, allowed her to join his Kingsguard, armour him before battle etc. so even if those are his true thoughts he was able to put them aside.

[Craving Peaches]

5 hours ago, frenin said:

They are not tho, it's Viserys/Otto who put Daemon on the City Watch, not whatever Maester of Laws they had, Janos Slynt answers directly to Robert, not Renly.

Thank you for reminding me.

5 hours ago, frenin said:

About the metal thing, given that Noye last saw the brothers 15 years ago when they were boys. Though Martin does a little of self insert by Martin there imo, Noye comment  about how Robert is not really a good king is kinda odd for someone who has been in a penal colony for nearly two decades. If even Ned thought things were running smoothly till he saw th evidence... All Noye could tell is that there has been 14 years of peace and plenty.

The issue I have is that while he knew adult Robert and Stannis, he last saw Renly when he was a child and so I don't see how his opinion of Renly is going to be as accurate as the other two, which I don't think are that accurate anyway.

[Denam_Pavel]

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Saying that it's baseless assumption is ignoring the text.

I said beginning, this is close to a year later. Renly declared himself King first, that doesn't constitute the beginning of the war. Stannis had been gathering forces on Dragonstone throughout the events of the first book, and Varys had been sending reports about it to Tywin all the while he was dealing with Ned's stuff, who had been preparing in response. Renly's faction in reality is a latecomer to the conflict. Stannis definitely was making plans for war already, That he was planning to kill Renly the whole time, like, implies he was planning to kill him the moment Jon Arryn showed him the likelyhood he was Robert's true heir. That Craven Peaches didn't mean it that way is fine, that doesn't I myself am not allowed to mean it that way either.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

I said beginning, this is close to a year later. Renly declared himself King first, that doesn't constitute the beginning of the war.

I'd say that both Renly's and Robb's crownings constitute the beginning of the War of the 5 Kings.

But no one has ever argued that Stannis meant to kill Renly while Robert was alive.

 

@Arthur Peres

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but instead he decided to play tourney and let the realm burn, while he starved the city that would be his future capital. 

I'd say that the greatest strategy to win a war there is. Letting your foes kill each other while you feast is amazing.

Starving your future capital means growing discontent and an easier time taking that capital.

 

 

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He was also a very false person, he presented himself as belevonet but in privite he showed his true collors, like his thoughs on Brienne and the mockery of Shireen let it clear.

Disagree here.

Him mocking Shireen shows he's scumbag but not particularly false, he does so in Stannis's face as well as in the council.

His thoughts on Brienne are common, those are the same thoughts that practically everyone shares when they see her. What sets Brienne apart from the rest is the fact that he shows her basic decency. He declares her a winner of the tourney and gives her a rainbow cloak when just shunning against the wishes of all his lords.

 

 

 

[Vaegon the dragonless]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Thank you for reminding me.

The issue I have is that while he knew adult Robert and Stannis, he last saw Renly when he was a child and so I don't see how his opinion of Renly is going to be as accurate as the other two, which I don't think are that accurate anyway.

That is my main issue with Noye assessment, he does not know Renly at all, Renly was born in 277 and Noye joined the nigths watch at the end of Roberts Rebellion in 283, that means that at most Renly was at most 6 years old last time Noye as seen him. Renly is a complete stranger for Donald and his insigth on is character is worth as much as anyone who seen Renly once.

[Denam_Pavel]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

I'd say that both Renly's and Robb's crownings constitute the beginning of the War of the 5 Kings.

But no one has ever argued that Stannis meant to kill Renly while Robert was alive.

By the time Renly and Robb crown themselves, Stannis has already betrayed his marriage with adultery, forced people to adopt a new religion, basically left Ned and Robert to die. Like Craving Peaches says, when Tarly asked what they should do if Stannis is taken alive, the only response is laughter, Stannis is too stubborn for that to be possible once he committed to something. But Stannis committed himself to becoming King, comprised his supposed ironclad sense of justice in a number of ways to do so much much earlier then this. And Stannis had an idea for Renly would have figured into his kingdom, dead or alive, before Renly crowned himself.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

@frenin thanks for reminding me about that bit about the Blackwater. I had forgotten about that.

Certainly Davos agrees with you. He responds to that mention of prophecy with a challenge to the idea of alternative fates:

"If she saw two futures, well . . . both cannot be true.”

King Stannis pointed a finger. "There you err, Onion Knight. Some lights cast more than one shadow. Stand before the nightfire and you'll see for yourself. The flames shift and dance, never still. The shadows grow tall and short, and every man casts a dozen. Some are fainter than others, that's all. Well, men cast their shadows across the future as well. One shadow or many. Melisandre sees them all." -- Davos II, ACOK

Davos is emphasizing the importance of choice and agency, yet Stannis thinks of Mel's powers as reflecting multiple possible paths, with some paths more determined than others. He still thinks in terms of choice to some extent, but it's still a much more fatalistic way of thinking than Davos. 

He does indeed say that his going to Storm's End to meet Renly would result in him gaining his army. And he does say that if he had met Renly on the Blackwater, Renly would smash him. But since he's convinced that all pretenders including Renly are fated to die lest they stop their folly, he doesn't have to connect meeting with Renly to Renly dying. From his vantage point, he tried to give Renly one last chance to save himself before Renly committed himself to that particular, tragic path of destiny.

GRRM surely wants the readers to connect the moral dots that Stannis fails to connect, and so he has Cressen and Davos press Stannis on these issues, but Stannis simply doesn't accept the arguments as his advisors frame them. You don't have to agree with his reasoning as sensible, but it's a very human way of interpreting a supernaturally-colored moral quandary.

[Arthur Peres]

8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I agree, but I also don't think Robert was that difficult to manipulate either. Cersei gets Robert to do exactly what she wants, to compete in the melee, just by using reverse psychology, and Robert is only prevented from competing be Eddard and Barristan. Ned thinks:

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Robert avoided confront as much as he could, and for that he would let Cersei have her appointments but only to a certain degree, Cersei cleary hated his brothers but he never removed them from council and he never brings any Lannisters to his small council. Robert also refused to listen Cersei when she went against Ned and tried the easiest path to avoid confront between Starks and Lannisters in both incidents at Darry and later after Jaime attacked Ned.

The man was lazy and spinless but not a complete fool, he saw his brothers, wife and "son" for what they were well enough and knew that he couldn't trust anyone on his court.

8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

He is besieging King's Landing because it is under hostile Lannister control, it is just a normal warfare thing. If he attacks it he needlessly looses troops as he is sieging it just fine from afar with no loses on his side. He is either besieging or attacking his future capital, so he can't really win there. I don't think he's letting the whole realm burn, only his enemies, by allowing them to fight each other. The plan was to let the Starks and Lannisters wear each other down, making his advantage in numbers better and better. He is conserving his own strength while his enemies weaken each other. The tourneys are good for moral, they keep troops entertained and stop them being bored, and they are a good training exercise.

He was wasting time and paid the price, instead of a easy quickly victory he ended up dead without any acomplisments. Truly a Cooper King.

[Arthur Peres]

6 hours ago, frenin said:

I'd say that the greatest strategy to win a war there is. Letting your foes kill each other while you feast is amazing.

Starving your future capital means growing discontent and an easier time taking that capital.

Is a great strategy if you are in a position like Robb, someone that can't win by himself. Renly could have ended it all in a single battle, and he had the power to do it easily, instead he wasted time, let the realm grow even more unstable, and died without any acomplishments.

[Craving Peaches]

7 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

The man was lazy and spinless but not a complete fool, he saw his brothers, wife and "son" for what they were well enough and knew that he couldn't trust anyone on his court.

I'm not saying Robert was foolish, I'm saying he was relatively easy to manipulate, all that it took was reverse psychology for Cersei to do it, Ned thinks so too, as does Varys.

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

He was wasting time and paid the price, instead of a easy quickly victory he ended up dead without any acomplisments. Truly a Cooper King.

I don't see how he's wasting time when he is besieging a hostile city without suffering any casualties himself. All that attacking earlier does is cost him men. His enemies are fighting each other for him, why should he not wait until they are weaker before attacking? Waiting until the Starks and Lannisters have killed each other makes his victory progressively more easy. Attacking them all at the start is harder, not easier, as he will have to fight larger armies than otherwise. It is also easier for him to take King's Landing after a few months of cutting off food supplies, as the morale of the defenders will be lower due to worse conditions in the city.

Renly died because of Stannis and Melisandre's magic attack, not because he was wasting time. He could have taken King's Landing and been killed by them in the exact same way.

[frenin]

42 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

 But since he's convinced that all pretenders including Renly are fated to die lest they stop their folly, he doesn't have to connect meeting with Renly to Renly dying.

I don't know about that. Stannis is always trying to be God's wrath and vengeance, him not connecting the dots is either false or willfull blindness-

Even when he believes that all pretenders are meant to die... He still thinks that Edric's blood would be the one that kills them.

 

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The Lord of Light should have made Robert his champion. Why me?” “Because you are a righteous man,” said Melisandre. “A righteous man.” Stannis touched the covered silver platter with a finger. “With leeches.” “Yes,” said Melisandre, “but I must tell you once more, this is not the way.” “You swore it would work.”  [...] The king looked angry.“When the fires speak more plainly, so shall I. There is truth in the flames, but it is not always easy to see.” The great ruby at her throat drank fire from the glow of the brazier. “Give me the boy, Your Grace. It is the surer way. The better way. Give me the boy and I shall wake the stone dragon.”

Even if we can say that Stannis is been fed lies, Stannis does believe that he if he leeches Edric his foes will die, Stannis isn't passively waiting for fate to kill them, he's activey shaking things his "favour" so the odds go the way he wants.

 

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“I am a small man,” Davos admitted, “so tell me why you need this boy Edric Storm to wake your great stone dragon, my lady.” He was determined to say the boy’s name as often as he could. “Only death can pay for life, my lord. A great gift requires a great sacrifice.” “Where is the greatness in a baseborn child?” “He has kings’ blood in his veins. You have seen what even a little of that blood could do—” “I saw you burn some leeches.” “And two false kings are dead.”

 

This is even more clear when all of the Edric business, Stannis actively considering killing Edric to get to Joffrey and the throne. If Stannis does believe usurpers are fated to die anyways... Why is he going to commit kinslaying in order to make it happen? 

 

 

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“We do not choose our destinies. Yet we must … we must do our duty, no? Great or small, we must do our duty. Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!” Stannis gave a derisive snort. “It glimmers prettily, I’ll grant you, but on the Blackwater this magic sword served me no better than any common steel. A dragon would have turned that battle. Aegon once stood here as I do, looking down on this table. Do you think we would name him Aegon the Conqueror today if he had not had dragons?” “Your Grace,” said Davos, “the cost …” “I know the cost! moved, so his shadow fell upon King’s Landing. “If Joffrey should die … what is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?” “Everything,” said Davos, softly. Stannis looked at him, jaw clenched. “Go,” the king said at last, “before you talk yourself back into the dungeon.”

 

 

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

You don't have to agree with his reasoning as sensible, but it's a very human way of interpreting a supernaturally-colored moral quandary.

It's also a very human way to mask ambition and to hide the truth from one self.

 

 

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

Is a great strategy if you are in a position like Robb

It's a great strategy if you're in any position really.

 

 

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

Renly could have ended it all in a single battle,

Could he now? Robb would simply retreat and refuse to surrender if he still had any capabilities.

He could have surely won in a single battle if all his enemies were truly spent.

 

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

and died without any acomplishments.

That's not really a sign of disgrace when one's killed by a ghost.

 

 

 

 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

him not connecting the dots is either false or willfull blindness-

B).

He's human, he's flawed, he's not nearly as rational and stoic as he thinks he is. He's a morally gray character, one of GRRM's most intriguing. He rides the razor thin line between heroism and villainy. And as such, he's a great foil for Dany.

I do agree that, with the issue of Edric Storm, things have ramped up in terms of his active reasoning and premeditation. That's how GRRM works, to give a character small challenges that often have easy solutions or convenient loopholes, then to progress with increasingly more difficult situations and demands. Davos made things easy for him by spiriting Edric away without his knowledge, but that won't happen again. Soon we will get not just to human sacrifice, but the sacrifice of his own daughter, ostensibly to save the world.

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Could he now? Robb would simply retreat and refuse to surrender if he still had any capabilities.

He could have surely won in a single battle if all his enemies were truly spent.

Had Renly tooked KL, he would have ended the Lannister threat, he would have Sansa, Ice and Robb would still be pressed to fight the Greyjoys.

Renly could have forced him to bend the knee by force of overwhealming numbers or by diplomacy, he has the tools to do it with Sansa, Ice, the Redwyne fleet that would allow him bypass the Moat Callin and go home.

Robb already had send a envoy to him for a alliance and they already knew that Renly would demand fealty, they also have no grudge against him, only against the Lannisters, instead Renly refused to make a simple promissed, kept Catelyn against her will and would send her back with a threat.

Everyone else already was spend, the North lost a major part of their forces at the Greenfork, the Lannisters lost a army at Riverrun and the rivelords already took a major beating at the start... letting the realm burn even more was irresponsible and he already had the power to end it all.

[Vaegon the dragonless]

2 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Had Renly tooked KL, he would have ended the Lannister threat, he would have Sansa, Ice and Robb would still be pressed to fight the Greyjoys.

Renly could have forced him to bend the knee by force of overwhealming numbers or by diplomacy, he has the tools to do it with Sansa, Ice, the Redwyne fleet that would allow him bypass the Moat Callin and go home.

Robb already had send a envoy to him for a alliance and they already knew that Renly would demand fealty, they also have no grudge against him, only against the Lannisters, instead Renly refused to make a simple promissed, kept Catelyn against her will and would send her back with a threat.

Everyone else already was spend, the North lost a major part of their forces at the Greenfork, the Lannisters lost a army at Riverrun and the rivelords already took a major beating at the start... letting the realm burn even more was irresponsible and he already had the power to end it all.

How many men would Renly have lost by storming KL ? And he risk behing pinned between the city and a lannister army just like what happend to Stannis. Taking the long route and blockading KL just makes more sense and protects his troops. By the time he would have arrived to KL the city would have most likely openned its gate to him limiting the blood spilled.

And even if Renly and Robb had no grunge, Robb is figthing at that point to break away from  the kingdom, that makes him a ennemy until he kneels wich nothing indicates he is willing to do, after all Robb does not need to wait for Renly to take KL for him to join him, but he does not because his bannermen did not want that and he does not see Renly has the heir nor Stannis but believes that Joffrey and Tommen are true Baratheon's.

From Renly's point of view if the Lannister defeat the Starks it is beneficial to him since he could just swoop in to defeat the Lannister army by overwhelming force and he would face a already defeated ennemy, and vice versa.

In the end they're is absolutly 0 downside to the slow advance on KL that Renly does, that is until is brother siege his castle, wich even if he could just continue on would be a bad look. Even then defeating Stannis would have been a formality if not for blood magic. And once Stannis defeated and likely dead, well he can just go back to taking is time with KL.

[Arthur Peres]

13 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

In the end they're is absolutly 0 downside to the slow advance on KL that Renly does, that is until is brother siege his castle, wich even if he could just continue on would be a bad look. Even then defeating Stannis would have been a formality if not for blood magic. And once Stannis defeated and likely dead, well he can just go back to taking is time with KL.

 

He had the power he needed to end it all, instead he prolongued the war. And everyday he prolongued he rised the chances of things going wrong for him, like we saw happen in cannon, and even without magic a lot of things could go wrong...

He being assassinated for example...

or The Vale declaring for Robb, Joffrey or Stannis.

or Balon kicking the bucket sooner and Euron invading the Reach, forcing his lords to leave him to defend their turf.

or bickering between his lords, making he lose suport of one in favor of another.

or Dorne declaring independence and incressing the number of his foes

or The Lannisters hiring the Golden Company or any other large mercenary group and getting another army...

Wasting time was not wise... he could and he should have finished the war, the sooner the better. If you can checkmate you don't waste time by promoting paws.

13 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

How many men would Renly have lost by storming KL ? 

Very few if we count his whole army... Stannis almost took the city in a single day with just a portion of Renly's men, so it was more than granted that Renly could do it and arguiably even faster and we less casualties if he speed up and don't give the Lannisters a chance to fortify the city.

13 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

And he risk behing pinned between the city and a lannister army just like what happend to Stannis. Taking the long route and blockading KL just makes more sense and protects his troops. By the time he would have arrived to KL the city would have most likely openned its gate to him limiting the blood spilled.

Stannis was trapped between the city and a army 4 times his size... Renly does not need to worry about it. Tywin does not have the numbers to be a threat to him at that moment., Renly has more cavalry than Tywin has men.

13 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

And even if Renly and Robb had no grunge, Robb is figthing at that point to break away from  the kingdom, that makes him a ennemy until he kneels wich nothing indicates he is willing to do, after all Robb does not need to wait for Renly to take KL for him to join him, but he does not because his bannermen did not want that and he does not see Renly has the heir nor Stannis but believes that Joffrey and Tommen are true Baratheon's.

 

Renly has more than enough men to take on Robb... even if he choose not to he has the diplomacy tools to force the young wolf to bend the knee, like Sansa for example.

[Craving Peaches]

3 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Had Renly tooked KL, he would have ended the Lannister threat, he would have Sansa, Ice and Robb would still be pressed to fight the Greyjoys.

Tywin would still be in the field, so the threat would not be over yet.

3 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Renly could have forced him to bend the knee by force of overwhealming numbers or by diplomacy, he has the tools to do it with Sansa, Ice, the Redwyne fleet that would allow him bypass the Moat Callin and go home.

The overwhelming numbers are even more in his favour if he just waits for the Starks and Lannisters to wear each other down though. Landing and fighting in the North would cost a lot of troops. Sansa and Ice probably aren't going anywhere, he doesn't have to rush towards them. They would definitely help with negotiating, but he can have both them and much superior numbers by just continuing to besiege the city from afar and attacking later when it's more weakened.

3 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Everyone else already was spend, the North lost a major part of their forces at the Greenfork, the Lannisters lost a army at Riverrun and the rivelords already took a major beating at the start... letting the realm burn even more was irresponsible and he already had the power to end it all.

Renly likely wants his foes to be as easy to defeat as possibly. They can still be weakened further. Lots of damage has been done already but Tywin and Robb still have thousands of men in the field each.

[Arthur Peres]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

Tywin would still be in the field, so the threat would not be over yet.

Tywin would not have any other claim to the throne, joffrey is either dead or captured, Tommen is missing, Tyrion, Cersei and Lancel dead, Myrcella is at Dorne, Jaime is Robb's hostage and so is Kevan second son... what can he do?

He has nothing left at this point. Either Tywin dies defending KL or he is forced to bend the knee after, there is nothing more for him to do.

3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The overwhelming numbers are even more in his favour if he just waits for the Starks and Lannisters to wear each other down though. Landing and fighting in the North would cost a lot of troops. Sansa and Ice probably aren't going anywhere, he doesn't have to rush towards them. They would definitely help with negotiating, but he can have both them and much superior numbers by just continuing to besiege the city from afar and attacking later when it's more weakened.

We already saw how waiting ended up...he is dead, great.

Renly does not need to fight in the north, he will just give Robb a ride and this already is more than enough. And he already has more than 4 times the number of Robb, he should not waste time.

Bleeding your future vassals dry is beyond stupid, they strenght is his strenght.

Lets say that everything you wanted turned out to be...Tywin and Robb bleed each other dry, they can spend nothing and they are forced to bend the knee... Now Renly has to deal with Balon and Mace in the north on hiw own, using the Reach lords that couldn't care about less about the north... Then later he has the Young Griffin, Daenerys, Dorne... and neither North, not the Riverlands or the Westerlands can help him with a single men or penny because he let them bleed.

[Craving Peaches]

15 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

He had the power he needed to end it all, instead he prolongued the war. And everyday he prolongued he rised the chances of things going wrong for him, like we saw happen in cannon, and even without magic a lot of things could go wrong...

He being assassinated for example...

or The Vale declaring for Robb, Joffrey or Stannis.

or Balon kicking the bucket sooner and Euron invading the Reach, forcing his lords to leave him to defend their turf.

or bickering between his lords, making he lose suport of one in favor of another.

or Dorne declaring independence and incressing the number of his foes

or The Lannisters hiring the Golden Company or any other large mercenary group and getting another army...

All of these things can still happen even if Renly immediately attacks and takes King's Landing first. The Vale is extremely unlikely to intervene, Lysa won't do anything unless Petyr says and Petyr is most liekly pro-Renly. Balon doesn't attack until Renly is dead, if Renly doesn't die and looks like he will come to an accord with Robb Balon may choose to attack the Westerlands instead. The Redwyne fleet is at home because the twins are hostages at KL. So as long as they stay that way the fleet is at the arbour and so actually well positioned to defend from the Ironborn. So Renly taking the captial actually makes it more likely that Euron could attack successfully. Dorne under Doran is also unlikely to declare independence. Unless Renly can instantly take Casterly Rock, the Lannisters could still hire a huge army regardless of how quickly he takes the capital. As for bickering between lords, it is unlikley to happen in a way that causes them to withdraw all support completely, as Renly is more politically aware than Robb, and again it could still happen even if he was sitting on the Iron Throne.

The point is that Renly has no need to attack KL right away, he is doing just fine sieging it with no losses, attacking earlier costs him men that he could just avoid, he has enough men to do battle with everyone but the advantage against them will be even more in his favour the longer he waits, as they fight each other while he looses no one.

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

He has nothing left at this point. Either Tywin dies defending KL or he is forced to bend the knee after, there is nothing more for him to do.

He could choose to go down fighting. That's probably more likely than him bending the knee to the person who has killed his son, daughter, and grandson. He is very prideful.

11 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tommen is missing

Tommen was in Rosby, having been smuggled out of the capital by Tyrion in preparation for a scenario like this. So Tywin can fight on in Tommen's name.

3 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

We already saw how waiting ended up...he is dead, great.

He died due to unforeseeable magic, not because he was waiting. He can do everything you say he should and he can still die in the exact same way when Stannis and Melisandre have him killed with magic.

4 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Bleeding your future vassals dry is beyond stupid, they strenght is his strenght.

But they aren't necessarily his future vassals, the North already chose not to follow him once, from what he knows it looks like they want to be independent so why should he automatically treat them as future vassals? By this logic he shouldn't fight anyone because they are all his future vassals.

7 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Then later he has the Young Griffin, Daenerys, Dorne...

These are all going to be problems regardless of what Renly does or how many men he has.

By attacking straight away Renly looses more of his own men so in neither scenario can he ever be at full strength. By waiting he ensures more men are loyal to him than otherwise.

[Arthur Peres]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

All of these things can still happen even if Renly immediately attacks and takes King's Landing first. 

Not really. A lot of it goes away if he takes the city.

7 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Balon doesn't attack until Renly is dead, if Renly doesn't die and looks like he will come to an accord with Robb Balon may choose to attack the Westerlands instead.

He was going attack the north either way, Renly just died before it could happen but Balon would not change his target, he was going after Robb... even if he goes after Tywin still benefits Renly...Quickly victory, quickly unification and all this goes away faster.

 

9 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The Redwyne fleet is at home because the twins are hostages at KL.

And had Renly tooked the city they would be free and the fleet would be his to command...

11 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

So Renly taking the captial actually makes it more likely that Euron could attack successfully.

Euron would be a problem either way... but had he attacked the Reach while Renly still not the unify king, will reduce his army and all the waiting for having numerical superiority goes away.

 

13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Dorne under Doran is also unlikely to declare independence

Not really, they hate the Baratheons and the longer Renly takes to unify the longer the more they can go rogue.

15 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The point is that Renly has no need to attack KL right away, he is doing just fine sieging it with no losses, attacking earlier costs him men that he could just avoid, he has enough men to do battle with everyone but the advantage against them will be even more in his favour the longer he waits, as they fight each other while he looses no one.

Yes he has the need... this is why he was marching on the city... the fact that he was slow as hell and die before even reached his target show that the whole cooper thing was right... not much value there. Robert or Stannis would have won the war in a weak in his position.