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Better Metal Metaphors for the Baratheon Brothers


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15 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

He had the power he needed to end it all, instead he prolongued the war. And everyday he prolongued he rised the chances of things going wrong for him, like we saw happen in cannon, and even without magic a lot of things could go wrong...

He being assassinated for example...

or The Vale declaring for Robb, Joffrey or Stannis.

or Balon kicking the bucket sooner and Euron invading the Reach, forcing his lords to leave him to defend their turf.

or bickering between his lords, making he lose suport of one in favor of another.

or Dorne declaring independence and incressing the number of his foes

or The Lannisters hiring the Golden Company or any other large mercenary group and getting another army...

Wasting time was not wise... he could and he should have finished the war, the sooner the better. If you can checkmate you don't waste time by promoting paws.

Very few if we count his whole army... Stannis almost took the city in a single day with just a portion of Renly's men, so it was more than granted that Renly could do it and arguiably even faster and we less casualties if he speed up and don't give the Lannisters a chance to fortify the city.

Stannis was trapped between the city and a army 4 times his size... Renly does not need to worry about it. Tywin does not have the numbers to be a threat to him at that moment., Renly has more cavalry than Tywin has men.

Renly has more than enough men to take on Robb... even if he choose not to he has the diplomacy tools to force the young wolf to bend the knee, like Sansa for example.

Yeah its a choice, anything can happen but it does not mean it is likely.

Renly seems to be quite universally loved and is closely guarded by a kingsguard the chance's of him being murdered are low, in fact magic had to be used for it to happen.

The Vale joining Robb would be a problem, but the Vale as not moved for a while and is most likely not going to so Renly could safely count on them staying neutral.

Renly is still along the Mander, if Euron attacks he could quickly move is army or part of it south along it and protect the Reach, in fact Renly taking is time mean that he still can come back to defend the coast of the Reach but if he had taken KL and figthing in the Riverlands well he would be quite far and in no position to help.

From what we see Renly is the one uniting is lords, so has long has he does not do something stupid they will stay with him.

Just like the Vale, Dorne is most likely not going to move, in fact Renly believe that Dorne will join him since they hate the Lannister and he can assure them vengeance so waiting for them to move is a good idea.

Yeah the Lannister could get some mercenary's but no where near enougth, the largest mercenary compagny we know of is the GC and they are only a tenth of Renly's strength, and since the Lannister gold is in Casterly Rock, Tywin could still try and buy them if KL falls. Also the GC compagny was under contract and they never break a contract, until fAegon that is.

It does not seem like any of Renly's lords wanted to move fast, and he as experienced men like Tarly and Rowan who would pressure him to move fast, so it seems that Renly's war council agree that he does not need to make a move quickly.

And even fewer if he waits, the city was almost at the point of open revolt by the time Stannis arrived, give it another month and the Lannister would have been chased from it like Rhaenyra during the Dance, meaning that Renly would have most likely lost 0 men wich is alot better then a few.

Sure Stannis situation was different but carelessness can still be deadly, Stafford Lannister believed he was safe but was destroyed in is camp. Renly would most likely have no problem putting a siege on KL but it is not a risk 0 situation, unlike him starving it from afar.

Yes, and he still has those tool if he takes the prudent approach, again the slower approach is just a safer option and makes more sense.

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5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He died due to unforeseeable magic, not because he was waiting. He can do everything you say he should and he can still die in the exact same way when Stannis and Melisandre have him killed with magic.

Had he ignored Stannis and take the city he would be alive and a King. It was ignoring the city, being slow as hell, and going after Stannis instead of the city that killed him. Any day he delays is another day he can be assassinated, get sick or something else.

 

8 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Tommen was in Rosby, having been smuggled out of the capital by Tyrion in preparation for a scenario like this. So Tywin can fight on in Tommen's name.

And with Tyrion and Cersei dead... what becomes of this plot? Tywin is either dead after failing to save the city or in the away in Harenhall, Rosby would just turn Tommen to Renly to gain his favor, or Renly could put a reward for him and he would end up like Maelor...

11 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

But they aren't necessarily his future vassals, the North already chose not to follow him once, from what he knows it looks like they want to be independent so why should he automatically treat them as future vassals? By this logic he shouldn't fight anyone because they are all his future vassals.

Yes they are... He wants to be King of them all and it's why he wanted Robb to bend the knee by his own words..

let them bleed dry and now he has homage not of lords but of beggars...great stuff.

 

13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

These are all going to be problems regardless of what Renly does or how many men he has.

By attacking straight away Renly looses more of his own men so in neither scenario can he ever be at full strength. By waiting he ensures more men are loyal to him than otherwise.

And he would have fewer ressources to deal with them, and he would also have more problems.

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2 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

We will not agree...

For me Renly had the Check mate and wasted time promoting paws, then lost the game... you guys seems to think that simple taking the biggest prize and a easy victory would be trouble for him.

I disagree that taking KL was is Check mate move, holding KL is a great boost but it does not assure victory just look at the Dance, Rhaenyra took KL but in the end she still lost. So yeah I dont think we will agree...

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11 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Not really. A lot of it goes away if he takes the city.

How does it go away? He can be assassinated at any time, the risk is actually greater in KL because of Varys. The Vale can declare for someone else at any time. The Lannisters don't loose their gold when he takes the capital so they can hire sellswords at any time. Lords can bicker at any time. Euron killing Balon has nothing to do with Renly and whether he takes KL or not.

14 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

He was going attack the north either way, Renly just died before it could happen but Balon would not change his target, he was going after Robb...

I disagree, I think he was going after the weaker target. In this scenario Tywin is the weaker target and the Westerlands have more plunder to boot.

Regardless, if Balon was going to attack the North either way, as you say, then it doesn't matter what Renly does. Balon would still attack Robb. So Renly taking the capital wouldn't matter.

15 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

And had Renly tooked the city they would be free and the fleet would be his to command...

Then he'd most likely move the fleet to deal with Dragonstone or another castle so it wouldn't be at the Reach if Euron attacked.

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Not really, they hate the Baratheons and the longer Renly takes to unify the longer the more they can go rogue.

If Renly doesn't attack straight away he has more men, having a larger army discourages Dorne from going rogue sooner. They are going rogue based on the Targaryens, something that Renly taking the capital has no influence over.

22 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Euron would be a problem either way... but had he attacked the Reach while Renly still not the unify king, will reduce his army and all the waiting for having numerical superiority goes away.

I don't see how because his army would be with him.

23 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robert or Stannis would have won the war in a weak in his position.

That is impossible.

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13 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I do agree that, with the issue of Edric Storm, things have ramped up in terms of his active reasoning and premeditation.

Eh, I'd say ever since Renly, he's actively choosing the path his rivals die, when not actively trying to kill them but that's a  convo for another time. 

Nor do I truly believe the reasoning that all the pretenders are meant to die and he's just saving them. At the very least Stannis knew and understood that if he didn't do something, one of the pretenders would wound up with half his kingdom or the iron throne. That's the entire reason why he moves, that's the entire reason why he goes after Renly to take his army.

Had Stannis truly believed that all the pretenders were fated to die he would have done anything and he certainly would not have targeted his own family. 

 

 

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Had Renly tooked KL, he would have ended the Lannister threat, he would have Sansa, Ice and Robb would still be pressed to fight the Greyjoys.

He would have ended the Lanniister link to the throne that much is true but that's the extent of it. Tywin would be pretty much alive and with an army and Robb couldn't be trusted.

 

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Renly could have forced him to bend the knee by force of overwhealming numbers or by diplomacy, he has the tools to do it with Sansa, Ice, the Redwyne fleet that would allow him bypass the Moat Callin and go home.

Could he now? Tywin had those tools and Robb didn't bend the knee either.

 

 

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb already had send a envoy to him for a alliance and they already knew that Renly would demand fealty, they also have no grudge against him, only against the Lannisters, instead Renly refused to make a simple promissed, kept Catelyn against her will and would send her back with a threat.

 

Robb explicitly stated that he'd not bend the knee and Cat repeated as much.

I do not know what makes you think that Robb would bend the knee when everything points out he wouldn't.

 

 

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Everyone else already was spend, the North lost a major part of their forces at the Greenfork, the Lannisters lost a army at Riverrun and the rivelords already took a major beating at the start... letting the realm burn even more was irresponsible and he already had the power to end it all.

It was not irresponsible, it was savvy. 

You may  not like it, Cat certainly didn't, but Renly is in no need obligated to help the Starks who have rebelled against the Iron Throne he meants to sit in and the weaker they are, the easier they are to submit.

 

9 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Then later he has the Young Griffin,

Young Griff comes because Westeros is leaderless, that wouldn't be the case with Renly. Dany is another matter altogether.

 

 

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9 hours ago, frenin said:

He would have ended the Lanniister link to the throne that much is true but that's the extent of it. Tywin would be pretty much alive and with an army and Robb couldn't be trusted.

 

Tywin would either die trying to rescue the city or left without anything... all his imediate family is a hostage or dead, and if Renly takes Joffrey alive, Tywin cannot even crown Tommen.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

Could he now? Tywin had those tools and Robb didn't bend the knee either.

 

Robb has issues with Tywin, he does not have it with Renly.

When the war is lost after blackwater Catelyn begs Robb to make peace and surrender, Robb refuses because the Lannisters killed his father... if was Renly or Stannis in that position he would not be that stuborn.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

Robb explicitly stated that he'd not bend the knee and Cat repeated as much.

I do not know what makes you think that Robb would bend the knee when everything points out he wouldn't.

Robb says that he won't bend the knee to the Lannisters, he has no quarrels to Renly and if he is faced with a losing war, Robb is not the kind of person that sacrifices everything for a empty title. When Catelyn is send to Renly she warns him that Renly will want homage, and he still send her.

There were already riverlords in Robb's camp asking him to declare for Renly for example, it was not the case for Joffrey.

 

9 hours ago, frenin said:

Young Griff comes because Westeros is leaderless, that wouldn't be the case with Renly. Dany is another matter altogether.

Young Griff comes because the realm is in a very weak state and If Renly lets the realm bleed dry, it would be the case.

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5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin would either die trying to rescue the city or left without anything... all his imediate family is a hostage or dead, and if Renly takes Joffrey alive, Tywin cannot even crown Tommen.

Bur he'd still have an army and nothing to lose, it's not like Renly wasn't planning on eliminating Lannisters either way.

 

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb has issues with Tywin, he does not have it with Renly.

He says he's not backing him.

 

Quote

"Renly is crowned," said Marq Piper. "Highgarden and Storm's End support his claim, and the Dornishmen will not be laggardly. If Winterfell and Riverrun add their strength to his, he will have five of the seven great houses behind him. Six, if the Arryns bestir themselves! Six against the Rock! My lords, within the year, we will have all their heads on pikes, the queen and the boy king, Lord Tywin, the Imp, the Kingslayer, Ser Kevan, all of them! That is what we shall win if we join with King Renly. What does Lord Stannis have against that, that we should cast it all aside?"
"The right," said Robb stubbornly. Catelyn thought he sounded eerily like his father as he said it.

You're arguing for him to do the smart thing but if he was smart he'd have gone to pay homage to Renly from the get go.

 

 

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

When the war is lost after blackwater Catelyn begs Robb to make peace and surrender, Robb refuses because the Lannisters killed his father... if was Renly or Stannis in that position he would not be that stuborn.

And when he had the chance he refused because Renly was the youngest.

 

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb is not the kind of person that sacrifices everything for a empty title

I mean, he is. Could he make his peace with Renly? Sure  but if Stannis was no longer in the picture.

 

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

When Catelyn is send to Renly she warns him that Renly will want homage, and he still send her.

Making it clear no homage will happen.

So too does his mother btw. Cat states that Robb will never bend the knee to Renly.

 

 

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Young Griff comes because the realm is in a very weak state and If Renly lets the realm bleed dry, it would be the case.

He goes because the realm is leaderless and ripe for the taking, they go the minute Tywin dies and a child sits on the throne. JonCon also states he'd have never dreamed with setting a foot in the Stormlands with either Robert or Renly alive. No, even with the North and the Lannisters in low counts, the Golden Company cannot hope to set a foot in Westeros.

 

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, frenin said:

Eh, I'd say ever since Renly, he's actively choosing the path his rivals die, when not actively trying to kill them but that's a  convo for another time. 

Nor do I truly believe the reasoning that all the pretenders are meant to die and he's just saving them. At the very least Stannis knew and understood that if he didn't do something, one of the pretenders would wound up with half his kingdom or the iron throne. That's the entire reason why he moves, that's the entire reason why he goes after Renly to take his army.

Had Stannis truly believed that all the pretenders were fated to die he would have done anything and he certainly would not have targeted his own family. 

Disagree, but I don't think we're getting anywhere here. 

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