Impending Mass Starvation in Westeros

[sifth]

6 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Yes. I don't know why anyone assumed it was a local phenomenon, but the world of ice and fire makes it quite explicit.

The Others in and of themselves don't make that much of a difference in the big picture. Winter and the Long Night eventually kills everything. 

I don't know about that. I think GRRM has made it's pretty clear that The Others are indeed connected to The Long Winter.

[The Sleeper]

Connected, yes. They could be causing it or taking advantage of it and they will need be dealt with in order to reverse the situation, but in terms of the actual death toll, what they do themselves or through the wights or whatever wouldn't come close to people freezing and starving to death, by orders of magnitude.

I mean, if there is no light lack of food is only the first stage. Eventually, even the oxygen in the atmosphere will be depleted. 

[TheLastWolf]

On 8/31/2022 at 8:28 PM, Craving Peaches said:

I read this odd theory a while ago that said that someone (Varys or the maesters, can't remember) was systematically purging the rudimentary middle class in Westeros to prevent any sort of progress on from feudalism.

But Varys is killing off people who do just that, latest Kevan. He seems to be revolutionary rationalist(anti-magic, Dany better be careful) masquerading as a amoral spy-mercenary. I wont make any commie agenda jokes, since the last time I did, Gorbachev died.

[James West]

4 hours ago, sifth said:

Are the Others a threat to the entire world. I often wondered how they could get to Essos or the rest of the world for that matter, without boats.

The Five Forts in the east are proof that they also faced a threat long ago.  There is an equivalent threat but it is not the Others.  There are equivalents but do not come at the same time.  Humans and life migrate from one side to the other as the need arises. 

[Craving Peaches]

6 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

But Varys is killing off people who do just that, latest Kevan. He seems to be revolutionary rationalist(anti-magic, Dany better be careful) masquerading as a amoral spy-mercenary

I didn't really believe the theory, I think the main part was that the Antler Men were innocent but were killed as they were wealthy merchants. Of course there are multiple other reasons they could have been killed (because they were traitors, so the crown couldn't collect their debts etc.) 

Varys is certainly anti-magic, with seemingly good reason. To be frank I mostly agree with him. Magic overall is used for mostly bad purposes.

[Craving Peaches]

If the Others get as far south as Dorne, the sea around the Stepstones could freeze over to re-create the land bridge, allowing them access to Essos.

[sifth]

4 hours ago, James West said:

The Five Forts in the east are proof that they also faced a threat long ago.  There is an equivalent threat but it is not the Others.  There are equivalents but do not come at the same time.  Humans and life migrate from one side to the other as the need arises. 

To be honest, I always found the Five Forts to be rather confusing. I'd be shocked if they ever played any major role int he main series.

[BalerionTheCat]

6 hours ago, sifth said:

To be honest, I always found the Five Forts to be rather confusing. I'd be shocked if they ever played any major role int he main series.

I believe the 5 forts are not an invention by some unreliable master, or a legend without basis. I also believe they were built to defend against the demons of the Lion of Night. And I really believe these demons are none else than the Others. And the Lion of Night is none else than the Great Other, also the god associated with death in many religions, such as the Stranger of the Andals.

Whether the events of the Long Night, as described in different parts of the world, are the same or occurred at different times is debatable. But I believe they are the same, the LN is global and no known place is safe.

They don't play a role. But they are an evidence of a LN event, of an Others presence, in a very far place, very long ago. Maybe also an evidence of a powerful kingdom at the dawn of mankind.

[Aebram]

There are so many possibilities here, it's hard to know what to expect.  The War of the Five Kings happened during autumn, the worst possible time.  It resulted in the destruction of food supplies, and the deaths of many able-bodied men, just at a time when they should have been preserving those resources and preparing for winter.

We've had so many hints and foreshadowings of a long, hard winter, if we don't have one, it will almost be a disappointment of sorts.  But Westerosi weather is known to be unpredictable, and so is GRRM. :^)  Who knows; perhaps this winter will turn out to be unusually short or mild.  We all know that there was "The Year of the False Spring;" perhaps Westeros is actually having a false autumn, and warm weather will return sooner than anyone expects.

On the other hand, if we are really on the verge of another Long Night, then Yes, a lot of people will starve.  Such a season would also make it extremely difficult to travel, to wage war, or to do almost anything except survive.  That would bring everyone's plans to a halt ... Maybe the Martin will finally get to write that 5-year Gap into the story.

I'll guess that the answer is somewhere in between these two extremes.  The coming winter will be harsh enough to produce some starvation and other hardships for Westeros, but not so severe that it brings all the story lines to a halt.

We don't know much about what winter is like in Essos or the Summer Islands.  But the Iron Bank probably does, and they struck a deal with Jon Snow to bring food to the Night's Watch during the winter.  Mayhaps the weather in those other lands will remain warm enough to allow food production to continue.  Mayhaps some other lords and kings -- those who still have some coin left in their treasuries -- will make similar deals to keep their smallfolk fed.

 

[Craving Peaches]

9 hours ago, Aebram said:

The War of the Five Kings happened during autumn, the worst possible time.  It resulted in the destruction of food supplies, and the deaths of many able-bodied men, just at a time when they should have been preserving those resources and preparing for winter.

This is why I have concerns about not just about rising food prices for the smallfolk, but everyone's armies feeding themselves at their expense. For example, Aegon is invading at the start of winter when there have already been food shortages and a stunted harvest. Living off the land is not going to be sustainable for his army. As soon as they are in areas more badly affected by the war, they will struggle to find food and fodder. Same with Daenerys when she eventually comes. This will only make things worse.

Spoiler

It's possible that the Golden Company have their own food reserves, but the Arianne sample chapter, where it's said they take food from the smallfolk in the Stormlands, implies to me that they are living off the land like armies during the 30 years war.

 

[Rondo]

On 9/1/2022 at 11:01 AM, SeanF said:

The people in charge are generally not at all concerned about the smallfolk starving.  As of TWOW, the lords of the Vale are organising a tourney with a sixty course banquet.  

During ACOK, Cersei, Tyrion, and their court were merrily feeding their faces as the poor died of hunger.

So were Catelyn, Robb Stark, Sansa, Tywin, and others.  Everyday was almost a feast compared to the peasants.  Mismanagement and complete incompetence from the ruling class is why Westeros is not prepared.  By ruling class, that means Stark, Baratheon, Lannister, and Greyjoy.  

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, Rondo said:

So were Catelyn, Robb Stark

I don't think whatever Robb did was near as bad, we don't hear of him having incredibly luxurious food whilst people starve around him, unlike the Lannisters in King's Landing. Sansa was a hostage so couldn't really do much. Robb at least was trying to make sure people didn't starve as he orders people to store larger fractions of their harvest for winter. Tyrion also allows people to hunt in the Kingswood for food.

 

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, Rondo said:

Mismanagement and complete incompetence from the ruling class

That plays a part but I think the largest reason for starvation is the war, which was deliberately caused by Littlefinger and indirectly by Cersei and Jaime, Littlefinger was trying to cause war so I wouldn't say war started due to incompetence and mismanagement from the ruling class.

8 hours ago, Rondo said:

By ruling class, that means Stark

We see the Starks take action to prepare for winter and so prevent starvation by ordering people to set aside more of their harvest.

[sifth]

I hate Robb, in the books, but I don’t ever recall him eating any lavish feasts during his brief time as a king.

[Craving Peaches]

11 minutes ago, sifth said:

I hate Robb, in the books, but I don’t ever recall him eating any lavish feasts during his brief time as a king.

Out of interest may I ask why? There are plenty of legitimate reasons but some people don't like him just because he's a Stark.

[sifth]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

Out of interest may I ask why? There are plenty of legitimate reasons but some people don't like him just because he's a Stark.

Ohh I don’t hate the Starks; Arya, Sansa and Jon are some of my favorite characters. Robb just feels too similar to a Ned clone though. I wish we got inside his head, but from what little we do get of him, he ignores most good advice given to him. This wasn’t true in the first book, but it happens all over the place in the second and third.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, sifth said:

Ohh I don’t hate the Starks; Arya, Sansa and Jon are some of my favorite characters.

I didn't think you did, I just wanted to check because I have seen a lot of Stark hate posts recently.

2 minutes ago, sifth said:

Robb just feels too similar to a Ned clone though.

He does break a marriage contract because he didn't want to dishonour a lady, something that Ned supposedly didn't do, but I agree they are quite similar.

3 minutes ago, sifth said:

he ignores most good advice given to him

Yes, he does make a lot of inept decisions despite having good advisors, with regards to Theon and such.

[sifth]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I didn't think you did, I just wanted to check because I have seen a lot of Stark hate posts recently.

He does break a marriage contract because he didn't want to dishonour a lady, something that Ned supposedly didn't do, but I agree they are quite similar.

Yes, he does make a lot of inept decisions despite having good advisors, with regards to Theon and such.

Robb's the only character in the series who probably should have been a POV. I feel I would have cared about his death more had he been a main character and I knew his feelings and motivations.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, sifth said:

Robb's the only character in the series who probably should have been a POV. I feel I would have cared about his death more had he been a main character and I knew his feelings and motivations.

I agree, if I recall correctly GRRM said he regretted not having Robb as a POV. But maybe there is a reason no king has a POV, at least now.

[sifth]

19 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I agree, if I recall correctly GRRM said he regretted not having Robb as a POV. But maybe there is a reason no king has a POV, at least now.

Which is something I always found weird. Especially when he has no issue having Queen characters as POV's.