Jon's Coming Battle with Ramsay

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[chrisdaw]

48 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I know of the theory that existed prior to show. The problem is, I can, as well as many others as you have pointed, see Shireen being burned. By the order of Stannis though? Not a chance. Melisandre may burn her and Melisandre would be on board with this. The reason can indeed be the defeat of Stannis but not a real one, perhaps due to pink letter which I think was not written by Ramsay.  

Stannis is doing it, that's the whole story, how a somewhat decent man can be turned down this path. Ramsay wrote the pink letter, the whole purpose of it is to begin to hype the showdown between him and Jon.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, chrisdaw said:

Ramsay wrote the pink letter

I never got the argument that either Stannis or Mance wrote the letter. I think sometimes people think because it's so obviously done by one character it has to actually done by another. But sometimes the obvious choice is the correct choice.

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Craving Peaches]

18 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Agreed for the most part, there are a whole lot of "Benjen is secretly Daario, and Lancel, Osmund and Moonboy for all I know are secret Targs" etc stuff going on when the simplest explanation is Daario is Daario and not all people are secret Targaryens... However, the issue of pink latter has plenty of holes and question marks all over it.

Not going to go over each and every one of them since I can't even recall them all but I'll give a few examples but there are a lot more.

First is WHY? Why would Ramsay send a lettor to Jon to get his bride? His bride is FAKE FAKE FAKE, admitting Jeyne was his bride would take away any legitimacy he has gained through that marriage. Denouncing is more likely. "No she's not and has never been my bride, this isn't Arya, this is an impostor" is the better approach even if this lie too can be dismissed easily, it would at least buy some time and keep whatever lord on the fence on his side for a while. 

Second, how does he evenknow that Reek and Jeyne were headed to Jon?

Third, how does he know that Mance is Mance? Even with the assumption that Melisandre's glamour has failed, he doesn't even know how Mance looks like. Only three people knew what happened to Mance. Mance, Stannis and Melisandre. Mance could have claimed that he was anyone and in fact would've done so to protect his child.

Fourth, absence of evidence doesn't mean evidence of absence of course but why aren't we told about the hand writing on the parchment? We've been told about Ramsay's hand writing on a previous letter, doesn't it seem so suspicious to you that we aren't told about this one?

As I've said, there are plenty of more things like that you can find on the forums that suggest, if not outright point out that Ramsay isn't the one who wrote this letter.

I admit there are some things that would suggest Ramsay may not be the author, but I think the alternatives (Stannis, Mance) are an even worse fit. It may be of dubious origin but I still think Ramsay or someone on his side wrote it.

[Evolett]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Third, how does he know that Mance is Mance? Even with the assumption that Melisandre's glamour has failed, he doesn't even know how Mance looks like. Only three people knew what happened to Mance. Mance, Stannis and Melisandre. Mance could have claimed that he was anyone and in fact would've done so to protect his child.

Hmm, two of Mance's "washerwomen" probably died in the attempt to liberate Jeyne and must have been identified afterwards. Both Jeyne and Theon are missing from Winterfell so it stands to reason that Ramsay would suspect Mance's and his women's involvement in their escape. Not too difficult figuring that out. The suspects would have been rounded up and interrogated - we know what Ramsay is like. Mance may not have talked but if Ramsay really flayed the remaining women, they may have revealed all they know. And I think they were aware of most of what was stated in the letter. I tend to think the so called pink letter is genuine.

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Second, how does he evenknow that Reek and Jeyne were headed to Jon?

Ramsay assuming that Jeyne and Theon would make for the safety of the Wall to commit themselves into Jon's care is logical. From Ramsay's point of view, Jon is LC, Jeyne officially his half-sister and the assumption is that the Watch takes no part in the affairs of the realm, meaning the two refugees may well find refuge there. Ramsay challenges all that in his letter and we can expect him to confront Jon over the issue because Jon is the one person who will be able to identify the lie that is Jeyne. 

That Ramsay cages Mance and supplies him with a cloak made from the skins of the women also strikes me as genuine. We have ample proof of Ramsay's flaying practices and the extent to which he goes for sport and his own personal pleasure, how much more in a case like this. Mance would be guilty of collaboration with or without a glamour. I see little reason why the letter should not have been penned by Ramsay.

There is also a possible parallel regarding the caging of Mance. Aemon the Dragonknight was caged and subsequently freed by Baelor the Blessed. In this case it's the "Bael" character that is caged and for all we know, he may be released by a "dragonknight."

Edited October 2, 2022 by Evolett
Typos

[BalerionTheCat]

19 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I admit there are some things that would suggest Ramsay may not be the author, but I think the alternatives (Stannis, Mance) are an even worse fit. It may be of dubious origin but I still think Ramsay or someone on his side wrote it.

I don't think Stannis would use this kind of trick. He would not know or fake: "my Reek". I"m not sure he even knows about Mance's plan, specifically the 6 washer women.

I don't think Ramsay would care and ask for Val. Neither for Melisandre. Probably not for anyone else, supposing the knew them.

Mance is the one with all the knowledge to write this letter. The letter is infuriating. It has only for effect to draw the wildlings (and probably the queen's men too) to assault Winterfell. Ramsay is not that stupid. He doesn't need the wildlings siding with the rebel Northmen.

Mance is in a bit in a hurry at the end of ADwD, but I think he could have prepared the letter before, when he and the girls had more or less the freedom of the caste. As a back up plan.

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He knows Reek

OK. But I don't think this happened before the Pink Letter. I believe, if Stannis wanted something from Jon or the Free Folk, he would order it plainly, as the king he is. I don't think Stannis' letter would say he was defeated and dead either. He would just talk about the bride. Maybe his family and Val. Maybe Reek, but no one cares at the Wall.

I don't think the letter is Ramsay's. But I don't think it's Stannis either.

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[BalerionTheCat]

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

? This obviously happens after Reek has escaped and delivered to Stannis and before any battle. PL is claimed to be written after Bolton victory over Stannis, meaning battle. 

After Theon's escape yes. But before any battle. Beside, Nestoris must find Mors Umber then Stannis. There is more time for Mance.

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Stannis wants Jon not as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch but Lord of Winterfell. We all know how that has worked out with Jon so far.

I see the logic of faking death to force Jon to act. But I don't think Jon would act for Stannis. Nor for Winterfell. And I believe Stannis knows that too. Maybe for Arya. But do Stannis believe it?

I understand we can build a case for Stannis. More than for Ramsay. But I think Manse makes the most sense.

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Mance currently isn't having a wonderful time in Winterfell

Mance could have prepared the letter in advance. As a back up plan. But would that be to save his skin? I don't see Mance risking his people life for an unlikely rescue. Or maybe this plan came once in Winterfell. And for another purpose.

The washer women could have men talking. And Mance may know more about the mood inside Winterfell. The conspiracy if you like. Or the mummers' show some name it. And he may know that the Boltons are done. And he may think that attacking Winterfell in winter is not that suicidal. So bringing his Free Folk to the help of Arya and the demise of the Bolton would be a good move. To get them accepted by the Northmen.

[Nevets]

I think Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter.  Stannis and Mance don't make sense, and Ramsay has ample motive for the demands he makes.

Of course he wants FArya back.  She's his hostage against the Northerners.  Without her safety to worry about, there's nothing stopping them from tearing him into itsy bitsy pieces.  Her absence probably isn't known yet, but it will be, and he needs her back.

If Jon says she's fake, Ramsay can accuse him of lying.  The letter establishes Jon as Ramsay's enemy, giving him motive. And while they would be happy to use anything Jon might say against the Boltons, the Northerners would probably assume he was lying simply to protect his sister from Ramsay.  I doubt Ramsay is too worried about what Jon might say, but the letter would suggest that keeping quiet would be best.

I think Ramsay has all the info he needs, especially if he has beaten Stannis (or thinks he has). That would give him prisoners from Stannis's camp, who would know Arya is on her way to the Wall, with a headstart, and Stannis's interest in Val and the baby.  

The people he demands would be valuable prisoners for the Crown, and if not delivered (and I doubt he thinks they will be), it gives him an excuse to attack the Watch.  He needs an excuse because the Boltons can't hold the North if they attack the Watch unprovoked.

[BalerionTheCat]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think Ramsay has all the info he needs, especially if he has beaten Stannis (or thinks he has). That would give him prisoners from Stannis's camp, who would know Arya is on her way to the Wall, with a headstart, and Stannis's interest in Val and the baby.

I doubt he has beaten Stannis at the time of the letter (or after). Stannis camp is at one day of Winterfell. And I doubt Ramsay believes Theon and Jeyne survived to get there. Less yet that Stannis  would care to send them to the Wall.

Edited October 3, 2022 by BalerionTheCat

[Tyrosh Lannister]

Stannis will have defeated the Boltons by the time Jon wakes up 

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Springwatch]

18 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

And who would the Northern lords believe? Jon son of Eddard, or Ramsay? Or better yet, their own eyes when they see fArya and Jon side by side? Remember that Alys is with Jon as well. Alys shares the Starkish look as well, with her grey eyes, long face and brown hair, so much so Jon has, when he first laid eyes on her thought she was Arya. What will the lords think when they see fArya, Jon and Alys together? Many, if not all of these lords have seen Catelyn, perhaps many times over the years, so even if they don't know what the real Arya looked like, they have seen that fArya looks nothing like Catelyn. When they see Jon and Alys who look like each other and see that fArya looks not at all like these two, what will they think?

But that's a point against you, really.

The marriage was public. All the northern lords saw Ramsay's brown-eyed bride. They may doubt Arya had brown eyes, but they have no proof, because all the Winterfell folk are gone and likely no-one else ever paid much attention to Ned's little daughter.

Jon would be that proof. If he says his sister had grey eyes, that settles the matter, and Ramsay's claim vanishes. His only hope is to cause as much chaos and violence as possible, because if it comes to judgement, he will lose.