Deadly Dance of the She-wolves

[Craving Peaches]

42 minutes ago, Kalikrates said:

the other over Petyr Baelish. Sansa’s bond with Baelish will never waiver.

I'm confused. Are they fighting over Petyr or over the right to kill him? Why would Arya be interested in him?

[Springwatch]

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Sansa apologists, huh? I mean she's my favorite Stark character, but largely because of a substantial backstory 

Lol queen just like you. She promised. Anyways, Cersei thinks it's on Sansa

 

Noooooo! Not this again! I can't believe Cersei receives zero credit on this forum for intelligence or honesty, except on this one point.  But observe, and observe...

Cersei, at the time of the coup, to Sansa (who already knows the truth): "Why else should you have come to me and told me of your father's plan to send you away from us, if not for love?"

Cersei, much later, to the brother she hates: "[...] If Sansa hadn't come to me and told me all her father's plans . . ."

That is a big, big change, from, the plan to send you away, to all your father's plans. Cersei is not being honest here.

ETA

Queen like you. Oh gosh, Sansa.

[Springwatch]

4 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

Information is power, when you have info on your rival, you use it against them.

Yeah, and that is the key point. What information, and how did Cersei use it? What did Sansa know that could cause Cersei to change her commands in the last few hours before the death of Robert? What changed?

(Don't try to answer any of that - there was a forty page thread somewhere that hammered these questions into dust. There are no answers. Only simple faith in Sansa's guilt. )

 

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Noooooo! Not this again! I can't believe Cersei receives zero credit on this forum for intelligence or honesty, except on this one point.

That's because this forum is often ridiculous. She's clearly intelligent.

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

But observe, and observe...

Cersei, at the time of the coup, to Sansa (who already knows the truth): "Why else should you have come to me and told me of your father's plan to send you away from us, if not for love?"

Cersei, much later, to the brother she hates: "[...] If Sansa hadn't come to me and told me all her father's plans . . ."

That is a big, big change, from, the plan to send you away, to all your father's plans. Cersei is not being honest here.

What reason would she have to lie to Tyrion about that?

Like, that's it. That's all the plans. She now knows when Eddard will strike and Cersei had the opportunity to beat him to the punch, which is why she massacred all those people like Syrio.

She thinks she's wicked, defying her father. I don't understand, what's so wrong with admitting Sansa's betrayal? One act, specifically one in love stricken childhood, does not define her entire character 

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Such a fight will not be in the form of a physical duel because Sansa is not at all brave enough for that.  I believe there will be a conflict between the Starks that will lead to the death of one or two of them.  Sansa will surely be on one side.  She is ambitious but lack the intelligence and the courage to acquire anything for herself.  But she will be used by Littlefinger and Harry to further their own ambitions.  Ambitions which may include control of the North.  Sansa will side with anyone who can give her the status she thinks she is deserving of. 

[Springwatch]

(deleted - editing format produced new post (?))

[Springwatch]

On 9/9/2022 at 11:06 PM, Hugorfonics said:

That's because this forum is often ridiculous. She's clearly intelligent.

Ok, I agree, but most arguments on this topic depend on Cersei being dumb as an amoeba, literally inert like a beached whale.

On 9/9/2022 at 11:06 PM, Hugorfonics said:

What reason would she have to lie to Tyrion about that?

The point is that she does. We saw her do it. The why is interesting - she takes blame from Ned and puts in on Sansa - but it's a distraction here.

On 9/9/2022 at 11:06 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Like, that's it. That's all the plans. She now knows when Eddard will strike and Cersei had the opportunity to beat him to the punch, which is why she massacred all those people like Syrio.

Sansa's information is that the girls have to be ready to leave the Tower at midday. Therefore, at around 12:15 they will be wandering around in the open, clutching their suitcases - the point of maximum vulnerability. Next they present themselves at the castle gates, and after being waived through by the guards, they trail slowly through the city with their cartloads of luggage, followed by several hours waiting on the ship for the evening tide.

ETA (This is not speculation - everything in the para above follows from the text.)

If Cersei trusts this information, she'll believe Ned will not 'strike' until well after midday, maybe the next day. But he doesn't. Immediately Robert dies (in the morning, during Arya's lesson), Ned strikes, and so does Cersei.

Therefore - it is certain that Cersei did not change plans on account of the Windwitch.

On 9/9/2022 at 11:06 PM, Hugorfonics said:

She thinks she's wicked, defying her father. I don't understand, what's so wrong with admitting Sansa's betrayal? One act, specifically one in love stricken childhood, does not define her entire character 

Wicked like Arya, meaning not wicked at all - Ned's forgiveness and approval will surely follow.

Oh I know Sansa does some crazy things around this time but this one act, going to Cersei, was neither an actual betrayal (had no impact on Ned and his people), or a betrayal in spirit (how could it be wrong to love the marriage he made for her? or trust that he'd never choose a family that wasn't basically good?)

[BalerionTheCat]

Wolves are pack. This is not the case of dragons who are bloody monsters.

Sansa made an error. A big one. But no bigger than Ned or Robb or Cat. And things would have appended anyway. Because of LF, Cersei and Joffrey. Don't mix victim and instigator.

[Darth Sidious]

Arya is a homicidal nutjob. It won’t take much to motivate her to kill somebody but she will hesitate to kill one of the pack. Sansa would sell the pack for her own benefit though. That will be the trigger that starts this quarrel. 

[Hugorfonics]

On 9/9/2022 at 10:59 AM, Hugorfonics said:

 

6 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The point is that she does. We saw her do it. The why is interesting - she takes blame from Ned and puts in on Sansa - but it's a distraction here.

A distraction from what?

We see her maybe exaggerate. I think it's closer to mixing up words. Either way she says Sansa might have saved her nothing definitive.

6 hours ago, Springwatch said:

If Cersei trusts this information, she'll believe Ned will not 'strike' until well after midday, maybe the next day. But he doesn't. Immediately Robert dies (in the morning, during Arya's lesson), Ned strikes, and so does Cersei.

Therefore - it is certain that Cersei did not change plans on account of the Windwitch.

Text makes it clear that Cersei jumped off after Sansa's visit, not the next day 

Quote

Cersei had listened and thanked her sweetly … only then Ser Arys had escorted her to the high room in Maegor's Holdfast and posted guards, and a few hours later, the fighting had begun outside.

 

6 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Wicked like Arya, meaning not wicked at all - Ned's forgiveness and approval will surely follow.

Sansa thinks she's wicked 

6 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Oh I know Sansa does some crazy things around this time but this one act, going to Cersei, was neither an actual betrayal (had no impact on Ned and his people), or a betrayal in spirit (how could it be wrong to love the marriage he made for her? or trust that he'd never choose a family that wasn't basically good?)

What word do you think we should use instead?

[BalerionTheCat]

Sorry, wrong post

[Springwatch]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

A distraction from what?

Cersei lied. Or mispoke. When she changed Sansa's information from one plan (which was irrelevant to the coup anyway), to all the plans.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

We see her maybe exaggerate. I think it's closer to mixing up words. Either way she says Sansa might have saved her nothing definitive.

She tells Tyrion the success of the coup was a close-run thing, and the thing that made the difference was Sansa. This is a lie, it cannot be made to fit within the facts we're given.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Text makes it clear that Cersei jumped off after Sansa's visit, not the next day 

Right. My point was that Cersei ignored the message of the Wind Witch, which was that Ned would move slow, until his girls were safely out of the way.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Quote

Cersei had listened and thanked her sweetly … only then Ser Arys had escorted her to the high room in Maegor's Holdfast and posted guards, and a few hours later, the fighting had begun outside.

And in those few hours, the king died and the race for the Iron Throne began. The timing of the coup only ever depended on Robert; everything else is a side show.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Sansa thinks she's wicked 

She was the good girl, the obedient girl, but she had felt as wicked as Arya that morning, sneaking away from Septa Mordane, defying her lord father. She had never done anything so willful before, and she would have never done it then if she hadn't loved Joffrey as much as she did.

She thinks wicked is being like Arya. She has no idea what real wickedness is.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

What word do you think we should use instead?

Childish misbehaviour. Naughtiness. Disobedience.

[Bowen 747]

On 9/7/2022 at 10:04 PM, Only 89 selfies today said:

A twist which would make the stories of Sansa and Arya at least somewhat interesting is a battle between the two she-wolves.  I can see a scenario where Sansa will betray the family again and Arya puts her on the List.  I don't want  a sisterly spat.  It should be very serious and only one survives.  The duo of Sansa and Littlefinger against Arya. 

Lannisters. Starks, Greyjoy, Martell will all have fights within the family.  George needs to thin out the number of characters and reduce the numbers.  This is more true for the Starks as there are too many of them still alive.  I am thinking it will be a fight between Sansa and Rickon.  Manderly and the north will stand behind Rickon while Sansa will be backed by her new husband, be it LF or Harry.  

[Hugorfonics]

18 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Cersei lied. Or mispoke

(She doesn't misspeak, maybe later in affc when shes constantly drunk but not in acok)

But why lie? Cerseis story makes it seem that Sansa benefited Cerseis plans, this makes her look weaker in Tyrions eyes. Why do that?

18 hours ago, Springwatch said:

This is a lie, it cannot be made to fit within the facts we're given.

It can. However it can not be made with assumptions like

18 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The timing of the coup only ever depended on Robert; everything else is a side show.

But this is an assumption.

18 hours ago, Springwatch said:

She thinks wicked is being like Arya. She has no idea what real wickedness is.

Sure, but she at this time thinks it's Arya. And she thinks Arya is way worse then she actually is

18 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Childish misbehaviour. Naughtiness. Disobedience

So Sansa misbehaved the Starks or disobeyed the Starks?

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

But why lie?

But you agree that she lied, yes? One plan is not all the plans. Sansa hasn't a clue what Ned is going to do that day.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Cerseis story makes it seem that Sansa benefited Cerseis plans, this makes her look weaker in Tyrions eyes. Why do that?

Weaker? Not really, coups are tricky things. I can speculate if you like.

1. She's an instinctive bully and manipulator, who likes to see Sansa isolated and friendless. This feels quite likely, because it's happened already - the whole court avoids Sansa because of the treason taint put on her by Small Council, which is reinforced by making Sansa apologise for it (my brother is a traitor etc etc). Those apologies sound very well-rehearsed and therefore well-used. Tyrion is unlikely to be impressed by any of that, so Cersei gives him something better. Now he is suspicious of Sansa too.
2. Sansa is regularly taking beatings from Joffrey's Kingsguard. Cersei finds this hard to square with her self-image as the ideal ruler. So she falls into the habit of victim blaming.
3. Cersei hates Tyrion laughing at her about the twincest, so shies away from reporting her conversation with Ned.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

21 hours ago, Springwatch said:

This is a lie, it cannot be made to fit within the facts we're given.

It can. However it can not be made with assumptions like

21 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The timing of the coup only ever depended on Robert; everything else is a side show.

But this is an assumption.

Like, what?!

When Robert dies, there is a power vacuum at the top, which will be filled either by Cersei, or Ned. No other event comes close to the impact of that.

And as matter of record, when Ned hears about the death, he acts immediately, and he finds Cersei has acted immediately also.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Sure, but she at this time thinks it's Arya. And she thinks Arya is way worse then she actually is

Not really? She's sees Arya being hugged and comforted and rewarded by Ned often enough. Not so bad then.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

So Sansa misbehaved the Starks or disobeyed the Starks?

Sansa did nothing to 'the Starks'. Nothing she did affected them one iota.

She disobeyed her father, as children sometimes do.

[Quoth the raven,]

The game of thrones is not just about the play for the iron throne.  It's also a play for minor prizes like who gets to inherit the lands and titles of even the most humble of castles.  There will be contention among the Starks for the north though the prize may not be grand.  Sansa and her sponsors from the Vale will put her claim to the North.  Rickon will also claim. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

Petyr Baelish and Sansa against Wayman Manderly and Rickon. It’s a tough campaign for Sansa’s side. Wayman is already in the North. The Arryn forces will have to march in winter.   

[StarkTullies]

I don't think there will be a major conflict between the two Stark sisters in their eventual reunion, or between any of the surviving Starks.  Sansa and Arya didn't get along in Book 1, as siblings often don't, but that is when they were living "normal" lives and before they lost everything.  Sansa never cared for her "bastard half-brother" when she was young and entitled, but she has grown since then and found herself missing him.  She will certainly be happy to see Arya again.  Arya is a wolf desperately seeking a pack.  She is with the Faceless Men only because she has nowhere else to go (her first intention was always to reunite with Jon), and she would be delighted to re-unite with any of her family members... even Sansa.

I don't expect a power struggle between the Stark siblings either (with the possible exception of Jon if he returns from the dead significantly changed... but certainly not Jon as we knew him pre-death).  The conflict will be between the people using the Starks for their gain (Manderly, Baelish, and whatever forces might be plotting to use Robb's will to name Jon as King in the North).  None of the Starks actively want power, except Jon who felt guilty about desiring that power (and turned it down when Stannis offered it to him).

[BalerionTheCat]

18 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

The game of thrones is not just about the play for the iron throne.  It's also a play for minor prizes like who gets to inherit the lands and titles of even the most humble of castles.

This game of thrones, this struggle for power, is at every level. Starting from sellswords fighting and betraying, gambling their lives for a few coins, they will spend with whores... to a struggle between magical, godlike entities, to dominate the whole word. The Iron Throne is just a petty prize. For some who are more aware, are more players of the games and their consequences.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

House Manderly is already onboard Rickon's wagon as far as propping up his claim.  That will surely collide with LF's ambitions for Sansa.  This is where the deadly friction will start.  LF will have some of the Arryn vassals on his side while Rickon will have House Manderly and the rest of the Starks.