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NFL 2022 Week 1: Leviathans in Fall


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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Um, dunno what you mean by "basically every thing," but anyone using a single rudimentary stat like completion percentage to predict success in the NFL is a really bad data analyst. 

Buddy, he would have wide open targets 10 yards away from him and regularly throw it five yards short or 10 feet over their head. His accuracy was really bad for a pro prospect.

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but comparing that to Kurt Warner is just silly.

Not when magically putting it all together when it's hard to explain is at play.

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Buddy, he would have wide open targets 10 yards away from him and regularly throw it five yards short or 10 feet over their head. His accuracy was really bad for a pro prospect.

Not when magically putting it all together when it's hard to explain is at play.

.....Ok, and?  What's your point, buddy?  Can you explain to me how one of the most hyped quarterbacks in his class who was drafted 7th overall is like a guy who wasn't drafted at all and went on to spend four years not even able to find a job in the NFL?

 

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Buddy, he would have wide open targets 10 yards away from him and regularly throw it five yards short or 10 feet over their head. His accuracy was really bad for a pro prospect.

Not when magically putting it all together when it's hard to explain is at play.

Maybe it's also called getting competent coaching for the first time in his career? Someone who actually knows how to teach a QB how to be more accurate? I mean he had all the tools, he just needed coaching and weapons.

More importantly it wasn't a leap in year 3 out of no where like people keep saying, he got considerably better year 1 to 2 in every single category. 52,8% to 58.8% is a big leap. 2074 yds to 3089 is a big leap, 10tds to 20 is a big leap. 12 int down to 9 int is huge for 2nd year guy.

Then in year three he got Diggs and it was game on.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

.....Ok, and?  What's your point, buddy?  Can you explain to me how one of the most hyped quarterbacks in his class who was drafted 7th overall is like a guy who wasn't drafted at all and went on to spend four years not even able to find a job in the NFL?

 

The point is how shocking the jump in skill talent that took place is, not how they got into the league. Neither has a great comparison point TBH. 

Allen had some hype, but I recall far more people worth listening to say they wouldn't bet on him for the exact reasons I've mentioned, that he couldn't hit the side of a barn standing right in front of it at times. That's a serious concern, and through his first two seasons that seemed to be the case. What turned everything around for him and the Bills is that he suddenly became accurate, and it appears now with a representative sample size that it's not a fluke.

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2 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Then in year three he got Diggs and it was game on.

Allen in his first two years was terrible against man coverage. I've heard a lot of people say Diggs is one of the, if not the best, WRs to beat man coverage. That's nothing to sneeze at. 

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

The point is how shocking the jump in skill talent that took place is, not how they got into the league. Neither has a great comparison point TBH. 

K.  In that way he's MUCH closer to Mahomes or Herbert than Warner.  The latter is just an out of nowhere comparison.

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

but I recall far more people worth listening to say they wouldn't bet on him for the exact reasons I've mentioned, that he couldn't hit the side of a barn standing right in front of it at times.

I'm sure there were!  But he also went first to the Browns in Mel Kiper's first mock draft of 2018.  Comparing that to Kurt Warner is patently nonsensical.  He was incredibly raw - like scouts said - but eventually put it all together - like scouts who were high on him thought he could.  This is a pretty standard progression, not some outlier.  Indeed, it's a testament to scouting that so many identified this as a significant possibility and he went 7th in the draft.

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19 minutes ago, DMC said:

Um, dunno what you mean by "basically every thing," but anyone using a single rudimentary stat like completion percentage to predict success in the NFL is a really bad data analyst.  And let's not rewrite history here, Allen had tons of hype throughout his final season even until after it.  It was a relatively disappointing season, sure,  but comparing that to Kurt Warner is just silly.

That's the thing - it wasn't just completion % (though that was bad). It was getting worse in his final season. It was his speed and how he ran. It was his lack of playing against good competition. It was his turnovers. Like, the best comparisons of him to others in college were people like blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell. That's not great company!

I don't think warner is a good comparison because Warner came in and did great almost right away. That isn't the case with Allen. There aren't very many qbs who show that improvement at all, even fewer who jump so drastically in year 3, and even fewer who become superstars. It's almost certainly the case that he's the exception that proves the rule but wow, what an exception.

 

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

K.  In that way he's MUCH closer to Mahomes or Herbert than Warner.  The latter is just an out of nowhere comparison.

You could tell Mahomes and Herbert were going to be great from their first month in the league. So no, Allen does not track with them at all.

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I'm sure there were!  But he also went first to the Browns in Mel Kiper's first mock draft of 2018.  Comparing that to Kurt Warner is patently nonsensical.  He was incredibly raw - like scouts said - but eventually put it all together - like scouts who were high on him thought he could.  This is a pretty standard progression, not some outlier.  Indeed, it's a testament to scouting that so many identified this as a significant possibility and he went 7th in the draft.

I haven't cared about what Kiper's thought in a decade. He's entertaining, but at the end of the day like everyone else he's just guessing. He nailed the Allen pick, but he also had Rosen going second, whoops, Darnold fifth ahead of Mayfield, double whoops, and Jackson not going in the first round. Which of the five has won an MVP again?

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1 minute ago, KalVsWade said:

I don't think warner is a good comparison because Warner came in and did great almost right away. That isn't the case with Allen.

Well, that's the comparison I was objecting to.  If you wanna say he seemed like JaMarcus Russel - maybe - but I think you're give Blaine Gabbart's natural abilities far too much credit.  As for making the jump in Year 3, meh.  Plenty of QBs aren't great off the bat.  Plenty of even highly drafted QBs sit for awhile throughout even recent history - Philip Rivers comes to mind.  I don't think it's that crazy of a thing. 

Seems more like this was some argument y'all were ensconced in than looking at things objectively.  Allen looked a hell of a lot better draft pick than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen even by Year 2.  He wasn't some supernova out of nowhere.

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You could tell Mahomes and Herbert were going to be great from their first month in the league. So no, Allen does not track with them at all.

I haven't cared about what Kiper's thought in a decade. He's entertaining, but at the end of the day like everyone else he's just guessing. He nailed the Allen pick, but he also had Rosen going second, whoops, Darnold fifth ahead of Mayfield, double whoops, and Jackson not going in the first round. Which of the five has won an MVP again?

WHOOSH!!!  Right over your head!

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I think that's the real key to me - Josh Rosen and Sam darnold both were likely not going to do well but they had similar measurables to Allen; less absurd physical power, but still similar frames, long balls, and even some running. They failed as largely expected. Why didn't Allen?

 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Allen in his first two years was terrible against man coverage. I've heard a lot of people say Diggs is one of the, if not the best, WRs to beat man coverage. That's nothing to sneeze at. 

Lol, this sounds absurd, but it is late and I am tired?

Who was he throwing to in man coverage, we have discussed this before, he had absolute shit receivers who couldn't get open, that's his fault? Once he got a legit #1 receiver who could actually do his job it all came together.

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5 hours ago, dbunting said:

Who was he throwing to in man coverage, we have discussed this before, he had absolute shit receivers who couldn't get open, that's his fault? Once he got a legit #1 receiver who could actually do his job it all came together.

Funny how people never mention Lamar has always had shit receivers too...

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny how people never mention Lamar has always had shit receivers too...

How are you measuring that?  Numbers-wise, sure - but 25 attempts and 200 yards per game through the air isn't going to make anybody look good.  That offense is based on the run and wins when Lamar is rushing well.  He makes mistakes when you make him throw the ball.

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11 minutes ago, aceluby said:

How are you measuring that?  Numbers-wise, sure - but 25 attempts and 200 yards per game through the air isn't going to make anybody look good.  That offense is based on the run and wins when Lamar is rushing well.  He makes mistakes when you make him throw the ball.

It’s also very TE heavy offense, and Lamar has Mark Andrews. 

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1 hour ago, aceluby said:

How are you measuring that?  Numbers-wise, sure - but 25 attempts and 200 yards per game through the air isn't going to make anybody look good.  That offense is based on the run and wins when Lamar is rushing well.  He makes mistakes when you make him throw the ball.

In part because that's what they can do best. Lost in the Tua lovefest is that Lamar crushed it too and had a better passer rating, and he was doing it against a really good defense while Tua was facing three rookie back ups iirc. Give that man Tyreek, for example, and those passing numbers would likely look a lot better. The best WR Lamar has had is Hollywood Brown and he's just another guy.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

In part because that's what they can do best. Lost in the Tua lovefest is that Lamar crushed it too and had a better passer rating, and he was doing it against a really good defense while Tua was facing three rookie back ups iirc. Give that man Tyreek, for example, and those passing numbers would likely look a lot better. The best WR Lamar has had is Hollywood Brown and he's just another guy.

So the measurement you're using is whether Tyreek Hill has ever played with him.  Oddly specific, but I guess I'll give it to you.

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

In part because that's what they can do best. Lost in the Tua lovefest is that Lamar crushed it too and had a better passer rating, and he was doing it against a really good defense while Tua was facing three rookie back ups iirc. Give that man Tyreek, for example, and those passing numbers would likely look a lot better. The best WR Lamar has had is Hollywood Brown and he's just another guy.

Lamar sat most of his rookie year behind Flacco, that’s when he had his most talented receivers - Smoke Brown and Crabtree, then 2019 he’s got Andrews, Ingram, Snead and Boykin

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4 hours ago, aceluby said:

So the measurement you're using is whether Tyreek Hill has ever played with him.  Oddly specific, but I guess I'll give it to you.

Lol, I just picked a random top end WR. The Ravens have fail to get Lamar one of those, or something close to it. 

1 hour ago, PyroclasticFlow said:

Lamar sat most of his rookie year behind Flacco, that’s when he had his most talented receivers - Smoke Brown and Crabtree, then 2019 he’s got Andrews, Ingram, Snead and Boykin

Not exactly a group of world beaters...

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