Ukraine 19: In HARMS Way

[ThinkerX]

4 hours ago, Firebrand Jace said:

This ill conceived invasion has gotta be the most expensive military hardware demo in history right? 

Vlad, just go home brah

You don't want this in your life

Putin cannot do that. He is effectively 'President for Life.' He holds that title only as long as he is perceived as 'strong.' If that perception vanishes, then Putin is no longer 'President' - and almost certainly 'not alive.' 

Continued Ukrainian successes have a high potential to destroy the perception that Putin is 'strong.'

Hence, the question of what Putin will do to maintain that image. Right now, as I see it, his options are:

1 - drop a nuke.

2 - full mobilization.

Option one gets Russia made into an international pariah, a sort of supersized North Korea. 

It is doubtful (my take) that Russia's economy could support option two without a complete crash.

 

[Arakasi]

He can just negotiate a settlement and go back to 2014 and put Crimea up for referendum which Russia likely wins.

[Darzin]

43 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Putin cannot do that. He is effectively 'President for Life.' He holds that title only as long as he is perceived as 'strong.' If that perception vanishes, then Putin is no longer 'President' - and almost certainly 'not alive.' 

This is a common opinion but I don't think it holds up. Plenty of "Presidents for life" have survived losing wars some much more devestating than this. Saddam, Kim Il Sung and Ghaddafi all lost wars and were able to stay the leaders of their respective countries. the first two losing far more devestating wars then the losses Russia has faced in their "special operation" Putin has moved heaven and earth to keep life  normal in Russia and the average Russian has not been effected so much this has not been a national struggle and that makes it easier to wind down.

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed reports at the moment, but Izyum is reported to have fallen. Russian forces either surrendered or they tried to break out and swim across the river Oskil (which, fortunately, narrows considerably east of Izyum and isn't quite as challenging to cross as a few miles north, where it is miles wide). Ukrainian forces let a lot of them go, mainly because they didn't want to be lumbered with thousands of PoWs. Some suggestion that a few Russians are holed up in the town centre and their surrender/departure is being negotiated.

Kupyansk has also fallen, at least up to the river. The Russians have been told to hold the river at all costs until reinforcements (probably the 3rd Army Corps) arrive. In the meantime additional Ukrainian units have caught up and dug in.

Ukrainian forces also appeared to have captured Lyman intact. There was fighting in Lyman but it was limited, possibly a rearguard so the Russians could evacuate heavier equipment (which they couldn't do in Izyum or Kupyansk), then they ran.

The Ukrainians have now launched another offensive north of Kharkiv, moving towards Velykyi Burluk, the central command and control node and resupply centre for northern Kharkiv Obalst. The Ukrainians have been counter-attacking around it since the war started but Russian forces there were too heavily dug in, but drone strikes and HIMARS seem to have softened them up. It's clear at this point that Ukraine's short-term objective is to completely clear Kharkiv Oblast of all enemy forces and throw them back over the border. This morning hundreds of Russian civilian vehicles were pouring over the border into Belgorod, despite apparently being asked not to go.

And finally Ukraine has broken through the Russian lines in Kherson Oblast, on the south-west of the front. They've retaken Aleksandrovka and turned the southern end of the fank, opening the first direct route of advance on Kherson City. Meanwhile, 1300 Chechen reinforcements have arrived in Kherson, which is interesting. If they fight and die on the front lines, Kadyrov is going to look very weak (oh, sorry, he's retired hasn't he? I wonder if he realised what was coming).

Ukraine has also liberated vital military equipment seized earlier in the conflict. The last bit of kit the Russians seized is terrifying.

 

[SeanF]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Unconfirmed reports at the moment, but Izyum is reported to have fallen. Russian forces either surrendered or they tried to break out and swim across the river Oskil (which, fortunately, narrows considerably east of Izyum and isn't quite as challenging to cross as a few miles north, where it is miles wide). Ukrainian forces let a lot of them go, mainly because they didn't want to be lumbered with thousands of PoWs. Some suggestion that a few Russians are holed up in the town centre and their surrender/departure is being negotiated.

Kupyansk has also fallen, at least up to the river. The Russians have been told to hold the river at all costs until reinforcements (probably the 3rd Army Corps) arrive. In the meantime additional Ukrainian units have caught up and dug in.

Ukrainian forces also appeared to have captured Lyman intact. There was fighting in Lyman but it was limited, possibly a rearguard so the Russians could evacuate heavier equipment (which they couldn't do in Izyum or Kupyansk), then they ran.

The Ukrainians have now launched another offensive north of Kharkiv, moving towards Velykyi Burluk, the central command and control node and resupply centre for northern Kharkiv Obalst. The Ukrainians have been counter-attacking around it since the war started but Russian forces there were too heavily dug in, but drone strikes and HIMARS seem to have softened them up. It's clear at this point that Ukraine's short-term objective is to completely clear Kharkiv Oblast of all enemy forces and throw them back over the border. This morning hundreds of Russian civilian vehicles were pouring over the border into Belgorod, despite apparently being asked not to go.

And finally Ukraine has broken through the Russian lines in Kherson Oblast, on the south-west of the front. They've retaken Aleksandrovka and turned the southern end of the fank, opening the first direct route of advance on Kherson City. Meanwhile, 1300 Chechen reinforcements have arrived in Kherson, which is interesting. If they fight and die on the front lines, Kadyrov is going to look very weak (oh, sorry, he's retired hasn't he? I wonder if he realised what was coming).

Ukraine has also liberated vital military equipment seized earlier in the conflict. The last bit of kit the Russians seized is terrifying.

 

"Cicero" says that Izyum has definitely been abandoned.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

With the Kherson counter-offensive being the main focus of attention a week ago, imagine if someone had said that Kupyansk and Izyum would both fall and the Russian line in less than a week. 

[SeanF]

There are now reports that Svatove has been abandoned.  That's about 30 km beyond Kupyansk, and just 20 km from Sverodonetsk.

[Fez]

6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

There are now reports that Svatove has been abandoned.  That's about 30 km beyond Kupyansk, and just 20 km from Sverodonetsk.

If these are borne out too, it would seem there simply is not an organized Russian military presence left in north-eastern Ukraine anymore. There may be individual pockets of strength still, but no theater-wide army. It makes no sense to abandon Svatove instead of making it the new front line; unless there just aren't any forces left to do so. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

8 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Putin cannot do that. He is effectively 'President for Life.' He holds that title only as long as he is perceived as 'strong.' If that perception vanishes, then Putin is no longer 'President' - and almost certainly 'not alive.' 

Continued Ukrainian successes have a high potential to destroy the perception that Putin is 'strong.'

Hence, the question of what Putin will do to maintain that image. Right now, as I see it, his options are:

1 - drop a nuke.

2 - full mobilization.

Option one gets Russia made into an international pariah, a sort of supersized North Korea. 

It is doubtful (my take) that Russia's economy could support option two without a complete crash.

 

As to option 2: with what equipment would such a fully mobilizatwd army be equipped?  The Russians are already pulling T-62’s out of mothballs that are 40+ years old.  

[Loge]

44 minutes ago, Fez said:

If these are borne out too, it would seem there simply is not an organized Russian military presence left in north-eastern Ukraine anymore. There may be individual pockets of strength still, but no theater-wide army. It makes no sense to abandon Svatove instead of making it the new front line; unless there just aren't any forces left to do so. 

It's far behind what used to be the front line, so why should there be troops in that area. And the troops that used to hold the front line aren't exactly in an orderly retreat. It's hard to dig in when you are running as fast as you can.

[Which Tyler]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

There are now reports that Svatove has been abandoned.  That's about 30 km beyond Kupyansk, and just 20 km from Sverodonetsk.

Wow - would that be panic? or are they trying to over-extend the Ukrainian lines, and pinch off the spearhead?

[Werthead]

10 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Wow - would that be panic? or are they trying to over-extend the Ukrainian lines, and pinch off the spearhead?

Possibly, or it might be an acknowledgement that there are literally no troops to defend the city with. It does feel premature though. Ukraine might simply not have enough forces to march that far anyway, and they're probably looking to consolidate their advances rather than add new ones right now.

This narrative of "we're leading the Ukrainians into the trap" has taken some shape on pro-Russian channels in the last couple of days but even the Russians on the ground have shot that down as being bullshit.

[Which Tyler]

Just now, Werthead said:

Possibly, or it might be an acknowledgement that there are literally no troops to defend the city with. It does feel premature though. Ukraine might simply not have enough forces to march that far anyway, and they're probably looking to consolidate their advances rather than add new ones right now.

This narrative of "we're leading the Ukrainians into the trap" has taken some shape on pro-Russian channels in the last couple of days but even the Russians on the ground have shot that down as being bullshit.

Thank you - Didn't know it was a narrative, just something that concerns me as a possibility; and something I'm sure the Ukrainian Command are well aware of - and can happen even without being deliberate; IF someone on the Russian side can rally the troops.

Otherwise:

 

[Fez]

40 minutes ago, Loge said:

It's far behind what used to be the front line, so why should there be troops in that area. And the troops that used to hold the front line aren't exactly in an orderly retreat. It's hard to dig in when you are running as fast as you can.

Because "defense in depth" is a concept that even laymen like myself know about. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

18 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Wow - would that be panic? or are they trying to over-extend the Ukrainian lines, and pinch off the spearhead?

That’s my thought too.  Are they trying to thin Ukrainian forces for a flank attack from the North?

[Loge]

16 minutes ago, Fez said:

Because "defense in depth" is a concept that even laymen like myself know about. 

That may be a great idea if you have the boots on the ground. With a front line of 2500 km, the Russians haven't.

[Which Tyler]

30 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Possibly, or it might be an acknowledgement that there are literally no troops to defend the city with. It does feel premature though. Ukraine might simply not have enough forces to march that far anyway, and they're probably looking to consolidate their advances rather than add new ones right now.

This narrative of "we're leading the Ukrainians into the trap" has taken some shape on pro-Russian channels in the last couple of days but even the Russians on the ground have shot that down as being bullshit.

On further thoughts - Kupyansk is the big rail hub for the area isn't it? Maybe the Russians are basically abandoning the ground they need Kupyansk to supply? Especially if they can't muster the forces to hold the place anyway.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Thank you - Didn't know it was a narrative, just something that concerns me as a possibility; and something I'm sure the Ukrainian Command are well aware of - and can happen even without being deliberate; IF someone on the Russian side can rally the troops.

Otherwise:

 

Is a Roger Water’s song really appropriate given his opposition to supporting Ukraine?  

[SeanF]

There are even now reports of fighting at Donetsk Airport.

[Loge]

Apparently, Russia has acknowledged the withdrawal of its troops from Izyum.