Ukraine 19: In HARMS Way

[DanteGabriel]

3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

 

 

On the plus side, perhaps Putin can take comfort in the fact that Ukrainian gains no longer look like a giant penis penetrating Russian territory.

[Werthead]

As far as I can tell, Kherson City's last few remaining Russian barracks have been hit and destroyed by HIMARS. A Ukrainian reserve force at Mykolaiv has apparently been released for action on the Kherson front. They've also widened the bridgehead in the north across the Inhulets River.

Some speculation Ukraine is stepping up its Kherson attack to stop Russia from releasing reserves to head back east, although I'm not sure there's much they could do. Might be better to let them go and then collapse Kherson afterwards.

This is infinitely a bigger a defeat than the Battle of Kyiv, so the Russians logically will have to take some kind of action comparable to the pullback from the Kyiv front. I suspect that means either giving up Kherson, which isn't really accomplishing anything any more, or abandoning Donetsk, Luhansk and maybe the entire Donbas.

In unsurprising news, mass graves have been discovered in Vysokopillia.

[A True Kaniggit]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Russians sent in the air force to try to relieve the front but the only thing they seem to have achieved is losing an Su-34 to apparently mobile Ukrainian air defences. Some reports of Su-24s shot down at the other end of the line.

Apparently some kind of breakthrough in Kherson Oblast but the Ukrainian government is waiting to make an announcement.

Huzzah!

[Varysblackfyre321]

 

[Zorral]

Zelensky meets with  "Yale historian and fascism expert, Timothy Snyder, author of the 2017 book On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century."

https://www.rawstory.com/ukraine-zelensky/

[Arakasi]

This would be huge if true. I guess we’ll find out in the coming days.

 

[Which Tyler]

Looks like the last couple of days' action not only captures the railway hub at Kupyansk, but brings another major rail artery into range of GMLRS (apparently no HIMARS in the area), heading SSE from the hub at Valuyki, and heading to Luhansk

 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Arakasi said:

This would be huge if true. I guess we’ll find out in the coming days.

 

The map looks like a screen shot taken from this guy's Youtube chanel https://www.youtube.com/c/RoadHomeMotorcycleVlogs

I've watched a few of his videos, he seems to know his stuff.

[Werthead]

Another Su-34 has crashed, this time apparently an accident over Crimea. Interesting if perhaps it was suffering from poor maintenance or a lack of spare parts. Two in two days.

The Kherson front continues to develop. It looks like the Ukrainians have breached the far northern tip of the line, just next to Arkhangelsk, and are moving south, possibly to encircle the town. That's where the forces from Vysokopillya moved after being pushed back.

The southern front of the Donbas appears to be folding. Bakhmut under attack, some Russian forces retreating from Soledar. I wonder if that means they've released the Kramatorsk defenders to go on the offensive as the Slovyansk troops moved north to Izyum. If that front folds, then Popasna can be retaken which was a hugely important strategic hub and then Kadiivka (not the one near Donetsk) and then Luhansk City is in range of Ukrainian forces. That might be why the LPR government has been trying to negotiate to evacuate to Russia.

At least 600 Ukrainian civilians are reported missing in the occupied areas of the Kherson front. In Vyskopillya, several mass graves have been found. The first, and I think the only one exhumed so far, had 20 bodies in it.

LPR and DPR citizens have been trying to cross the border into Russia with their shiny new Russian passports, but have been stopped. Apparently their Russian passports do not allow them free travel into Russia itself...which is something. Some reports that LPR and DPR soldiers arriving at the border have been told to disarm themselves. They do not seem keen.

The Ukrainians blew up a Russian staging ground in a, er, ketchup factory.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

LPR and DPR citizens have been trying to cross the border into Russia with their shiny new Russian passports, but have been stoppe

I’ve heard it argued Putin doesn’t want them spreading word of his failure.

But where can they go but not Russia? And if they’re just left at the border won’t that just make russia look worse?

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

I'm curious how the collapse of the Kharkiv Front will affect the morale of the Russians in Kherson. 

[Which Tyler]

Lots of reports from Kharkiv oblas that Russian troops have left, but Ukrainian haven't arrived yet; and of Ukrainian troops arriving to find the Russians have already run away. Which lends credence to this:

 

 

[Werthead]

Yup, the entire Kharkiv front apart from that sliver down the Oskil has gone. Troops are pulling back across the border and it looks like have been told not to let DPR and LPR troops go with them. It looks like they are now focusing on holding Luhansk, Donetsk and the Kherson front.

Moscow officials have publicly called for Putin's resignation.

Telegram reports of a possible attack to the southwest of Donetsk to drive to the Sea of Azov and split the Donbas front from the Zaporizhizhia front in the vicinity of Mariupol (!).

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Another Su-34 has crashed, this time apparently an accident over Crimea. Interesting if perhaps it was suffering from poor maintenance or a lack of spare parts. Two in two days.

Reports say it was friendly fire from AA defenses in Crimea.

[Which Tyler]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yup, the entire Kharkiv front apart from that sliver down the Oskil has gone. Troops are pulling back across the border and it looks like have been told not to let DPR and LPR troops go with them. It looks like they are now focusing on holding Luhansk, Donetsk and the Kherson front.

Moscow officials have publicly announced a desire for unaided flying lessons.

Telegram reports of a possible attack to the southwest of Donetsk to drive to the Sea of Azov and split the Donbas front from the Zaporizhizhia front in the vicinity of Mariupol (!).

FTFY

[The Sunland Lord]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I’ve heard it argued Putin doesn’t want them spreading word of his failure.

But where can they go but not Russia? And if they’re just left at the border won’t that just make russia look worse?

Their border control works like that. Passport or no, they can decide not to let someone in or out for that matter.

[Werthead]

 

[polishgenius]

12 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Their border control works like that. Passport or no, they can decide not to let someone in or out for that matter.

 

 

Not that I want to appear to defend Russia, who are clearly stabbing these people in the back, but that's how all border control works, it's not a uniquely Russian thing.

[The Sunland Lord]

24 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 

 

Not that I want to appear to defend Russia, who are clearly stabbing these people in the back, but that's how all border control works, it's not a uniquely Russian thing.

What I'm saying is that they could've told these people that those passports they obtained are good to go in the Federation, but then the border control could've appeared like they didn't get the memo.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

39 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Moscow officials have publicly called for Putin's resignation.

While my heart goes out to those who never wanted this conflict, I have no sympathies for those fair weather war hawks who have changed their tune about their country's invasion of Ukraine to a 180 now that the potential for loss is on the table. Do they plan on withdrawing from Ukraine or even Crimea and pretend that nothing has happened? Think that everything will go back to the way things were while Ukraine lies in ruins? What reparations will Russia pay Ukraine for invading them, bombing their cities, and killing their civilians?