Ukraine 19: In HARMS Way

[Werthead]

Kadyrov not happy:

 

[Werthead]

Major Ukrainian buildup outside Vuhledar, on the SE front where the Donbas front intersects the land corridor. Russian messages on Telegram saying they don't have enough forces to hold them back and warning that the Ukrainians can punch through to Mariupol.

[Arakasi]

Crazy how Russia got so spread out that they can’t hold anything. Is there only force that’s able to hold the line Kherson and the Luhansk/Ukraine border in the east?

[Werthead]

Reportedly the Russians have repulsed a Ukrainian attack through Pisky, which from the way Russian/tanky Twitter is behaving, you'd think they'd captured Kyiv. The only half-victory they've been able to declare for a couple of weeks at this point.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

There were a plethora of women in Sunflower skirts at church this morning.  

Slava Ukraini!!!

[Werthead]

This is in interesting piece, if not fleshed out much.

Quote

 

"Russia, an aging tyranny, seeks to destroy Ukraine, a defiant democracy. A Ukrainian victory would confirm the principle of self-rule, allow the integration of Europe to proceed, and empower people of goodwill to return reinvigorated to other global challenges. A Russian victory, by contrast, would extend genocidal policies in Ukraine, subordinate Europeans, and render any vision of a geopolitical European Union obsolete," Snyder wrote. "This war, in other words, is about establishing principles for the twenty-first century. It is about policies of mass death and about the meaning of life in politics. It is about the possibility of a democratic future."

The piece ended by saying peace may be possible, "but only if the Ukrainians can fight their way back to the sea."

 

 

[Werthead]

Big power cuts across parts of Ukraine. Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa have experienced blackouts. Some reports that Russia has used cruise missiles to hit power junctions.

However, it does look like they did it a bit ineptly, blacking out most of the DPR and also a large chunk of Belgorod.

Take with a grain of salt:

 

[Jace, Extat]

37 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Big power cuts across parts of Ukraine. Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa have experienced blackouts. Some reports that Russia has used cruise missiles to hit power junctions.

However, it does look like they did it a bit ineptly, blacking out most of the DPR and also a large chunk of Belgorod.

Take with a grain of salt:

 

Huzzah!

[Werthead]

Ukraine has apparently ran into a massive problem. They don't have enough spare tank and other vehicle drivers to actually move all the shit they've captured. They have Russian tanks, missile systems, radar trucks and IFVs filling up parking lots and being mounted on the side of highways. They're drafting in HGV drivers to start moving this shit to places where it can be repaired and reassigned to Ukrainian use (and also have all the Z-signs scrubbed off, there's been some near friendly fire incidents already).

 

[Clueless Northman]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

Kadyrov not happy:

Kadyrov is the last person I'd tell my secret war plans, even if he was on my team and a top military officer. I'd actually tell him shit, so that he could accidentally leak them to the world in one of his usual blustering bumbling declarations. Though I'm glad I'm not Putin when he'll actually have to tell Kadyrov the cold hard truth. Granted, he actually might be right about the sorry state of Russian military right now - stopped clock and all that.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

A debate about whether to continue the war and how Russia fucked up the war on Russian television…

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

50 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has apparently ran into a massive problem. They don't have enough spare tank and other vehicle drivers to actually move all the shit they've captured. They have Russian tanks, missile systems, radar trucks and IFVs filling up parking lots and being mounted on the side of highways. They're drafting in HGV drivers to start moving this shit to places where it can be repaired and reassigned to Ukrainian use (and also have all the Z-signs scrubbed off, there's been some near friendly fire incidents already).

 

There are worse problems to have in this situation.  Tankies are still insisting “everything is going according to plan”.  I’ve been blocked by a couple.  

[Wade1865]

RE WX -- clearly, Vladimir has been planning / preparing to indirectly weaponize weather against the EU. Although any forecast (like this one) that's months out is unreliable, it still points to potential trends this winter. Thus, it may not be as decisively useful as RUS would have liked it to be.

1) "Looking at surface temperatures probabilities over Europe, we see the surface temperatures are mostly above normal in the northwest. But over central regions, we do not see a strong “blowtorch” signal, which could be a result of a more neutral to negative NAO mode in early winter." [normal, or warmer surface temperatures]

2) "Airmass temperatures are most interesting over North America, with a strong cold air anomaly in Canada and warmer air in the southern United States. The jet stream can usually be found between the two air masses. Europe is seen as warmer than normal, but with no obvious pattern, it is a low-confidence forecast for now." [warmer air temperatures]

3) "Going to the precipitation forecast, we can see Europe having a mostly drier signal. The exception is the far North Atlantic regions under the low-pressure influence." [normal, or drier precipitation]

[Which Tyler]

10 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has apparently ran into a massive problem. They don't have enough spare tank and other vehicle drivers to actually move all the shit they've captured. They have Russian tanks, missile systems, radar trucks and IFVs filling up parking lots and being mounted on the side of highways. They're drafting in HGV drivers to start moving this shit to places where it can be repaired and reassigned to Ukrainian use (and also have all the Z-signs scrubbed off, there's been some near friendly fire incidents already).

Surely, that's what tractors are for!

[Wade1865]

Well, how the turns have tabled -- the battle for Kharkov is over.

[Werthead]

 

Russia seems to have completed its withdrawal of troops from Kharkiv Oblast to the vicinity of Belgorod. Logically, they should rest and refit before rejoining the fray. However, it seems some units are moving east immediately, presumably to re-enter Ukrainian territory via Luhansk Oblast and to try to reinforce the line. However, it is unclear if they are numerous enough to reinforce the entire line from the Russian border down to Lyman, which is huge and currently under-defended. The Russians should probably look to consolidate the line further, although how they do that without ceding further territory is unclear.

Russian troops have stepped up offensive operations south of Lysychansk, which is...a choice given how the Twin Cities region is currently threatened with encirclement. The Russians are trying to grind forwards to Bakhmut, but their artillery support has been diminished by the logistical problems introduced by HIMARS destroying all their ammo depots close to the line. Continuing an offensive in Bakhmut when the Ukrainians could achieve further successes on both flanks seems ill-advised.

Kherson is a slow grind, but progress is being made despite large numbers of Russian troops being funnelled into the area. In particular, Arkhangelsk is becoming very isolated with Ukrainian forces surrounding them on three sides and their avenue of retreat to Davydiv Brid becoming increasingly isolated. There's also apparently a "porous" area south-east of Davydiv Brid where Ukrainian units have broken through but not formed a coherent line, so there's units from both sides roaming around fighting one another. The Ukrainian goal is probably to form a contiguous line from Davydiv Brid to Beryslav, but they're running into the issue of coming into range from Russian artillery on the far bank of the Dnipro. However, advances are also bringing that area into HIMARS range, so that might not be too much of a problem.

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Surely, that's what tractors are for!

Apparently there's more captured equipment than there are spare tractors to tow it.

[Which Tyler]

10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Apparently there's more captured equipment than there are spare tractors to tow it.

Sorry, I'd forgotten - the Russians seem to have spent the last few months stealing all the farm equipment in captured territory

[Werthead]

Nontrivial chance a Russian diplomat was reprimanded for arguing with cartoon dogs online.

 

[Maithanet]

The Ukrainians liberated 7% of all Russian occupied territory last week.  That includes territory stolen back in 2014 like Crimea, so if you go just by 2021 borders, its more like double that.  In sharp contrast to the paltry advances of the past 5 months for Russia.

I get the impression that the Ukrainians are trying to both consolidate and push further, which obviously runs the risk of putting less pressure on Russian forces and allowing them to regroup.  That's unfortunate, but probably unavoidable.  The good news is that the Kherson pocket is still gradually disintegrating for Russia.  If the Russians retreat/surrender from Kherson, it will be yet another blow to morale and leadership. 

There's a lot of talk about mounting another offensive around Zaporyzhia, but I can't help but think that driving into the flanks and rear in Luhansk oblast is the easier target for maintaining the initiative and further demoralizing the Russian forces.  The question is just how much material the Ukrainians have available in that part of the front for another big push. 

[Fez]

With troops now up to the border in Kharkiv, is there any chance Ukraine crosses the border and occupies Belgorod? Militarily, it seems feasible; and it would be a strong negotiating chip for an eventual settlement. However, taking any part of Russia itself, even just a border city, seems like it would dramatically increase risk of nuclear weapons being used. And there's the risk of harming Western perceptions since its extremely likely Russian civilians would be killed, even if Ukraine is not deliberately targeting them.