Arakasi Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Being kicked out of NATO and having your army bombed back to the Stone Age likely wont do it after he saw what happened to Putin. I am guessing this conflict will die down and Edrogan will get credit for helping to negotiate peace. (Or a ceasefire at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alarich II Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1569440359276548098?t=WEvM5hZCLqutdmWLvMXfsQ&s=19 So apparently Russias ally Armenia is being attacked by Azerbeijan as we speak. The vultures are already circling on Russias periphery. My guess, it won't be long before Georgia is stirring as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Alarich II said: https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1569440359276548098?t=WEvM5hZCLqutdmWLvMXfsQ&s=19 So apparently Russias ally Armenia is being attacked by Azerbeijan as we speak. The vultures are already circling on Russias periphery. My guess, it won't bei long before Georgia ist stirring as well... Woo! I admit to thinking several times of Russia - 1904, which surprised Europe as much it surprised the Czar ... and that's all I'll say, because superstitious fears of being wrong/jinxing. Also however it turns out, what comes after is going to be as awful as what has already happened, and may well be so for even more millions of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted September 12, 2022 Author Share Posted September 12, 2022 Some reports that a ceasefire is already in place after Putin apparently called both leaders. Possibly some kind of weird face-saving exercise? Not sure why Azerbaijan would feel the need to do that. Azerbaijan claimed they came under attack and launched a blistering counter-strike as a warning, but they're not planning to invade. Very much a developing situation. In Kherson, there's apparently a constant rotation of Ukrainian units going on. Ukrainian units are only spending a day on the front before being relieved. Russian forces are not being rotated at all, so morale is at abysmal. Multiple front-line units are out of food, ammo or water, or all three, and several have surrendered. Some negotiating a surrender. The wholesale rapid collapse predicted by many hasn't quite happened yet, though. Looks like Ukraine has been shoring up its new lines in the east and is carefully monitoring Russian activity across the border in case they regroup and then try to punch through now-more-thinly-held Ukrainian lines. Careful balancing act going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Russia claiming it is re-grouping, of course. The footage I'm seeing of weapons, ammo and equipment being left behind kinda suggests Russia is maybe not being entirely honest about re-grouping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Let Russia punch back. Mobile war favors the proximate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakasi Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-kharkiv-region-recapture-ukraine-insider/ Really good article from perspective of a captain who led part of the attack in Kharkiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 5 hours ago, Werthead said: Some reports that a ceasefire is already in place after Putin apparently called both leaders. Possibly some kind of weird face-saving exercise? Not sure why Azerbaijan would feel the need to do that. Azerbaijan claimed they came under attack and launched a blistering counter-strike as a warning, but they're not planning to invade. Very much a developing situation. In Kherson, there's apparently a constant rotation of Ukrainian units going on. Ukrainian units are only spending a day on the front before being relieved. Russian forces are not being rotated at all, so morale is at abysmal. Multiple front-line units are out of food, ammo or water, or all three, and several have surrendered. Some negotiating a surrender. The wholesale rapid collapse predicted by many hasn't quite happened yet, though. Looks like Ukraine has been shoring up its new lines in the east and is carefully monitoring Russian activity across the border in case they regroup and then try to punch through now-more-thinly-held Ukrainian lines. Careful balancing act going on there. I had to laugh at one online Russian shill who claimed tge recent Ukrainian gains were just like The Battle of the Bulge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 50 minutes ago, SeanF said: I had to laugh at one online Russian shill who claimed tge recent Ukrainian gains were just like The Battle of the Bulge. Ukraine could talk Moscow and these types would bring up napoleon occupying Moscow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted September 13, 2022 Author Share Posted September 13, 2022 Not to condone Azerbaijan's actions or hitting civilian targets, but it's a further example of how Russia's power and influence is waning even in its back yard. Azerbaijan knows it's not going to get too much blowback with Turkey backing it and the EU negotiating a new energy deal with them, so they can almost do what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alarich II Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 If this war continues to weaken Russia, like it did in the last few days, my guess is that not only will Armenia find itself quite alone in this struggle, but Georgia might stir again and trouble may well break out in Russias Caucasian Republics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 They do have a well practiced Georgian division now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted September 13, 2022 Author Share Posted September 13, 2022 Just now, kiko said: They do have a well practiced Georgian division now. And a Belarusian one, and I believe some Azerbaijanis as well. Plus a surprisingly large number of Chechens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Looks like they're over the Siverskyi Donets North of Siverk (to the East of Lyman) https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/view/3325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 10 hours ago, SeanF said: I had to laugh at one online Russian shill who claimed tge recent Ukrainian gains were just like The Battle of the Bulge. I mean, to be fair, any salient has that potential until it’s consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, James Arryn said: I mean, to be fair, any salient has that potential until it’s consolidated. Sort of. The German offensive in the Bulge was a terrible idea because they could not contest Allied air superiority, had no way of protecting their flanks and were fighting an enemy with good morale, reserves, and leadership. In many ways the Germans were lucky to have things go as well as they did. The Ukrainians are fighting an enemy with bad morale, no reserves, in a contested airspace. There is a possibility for the Russians to counterattack, but doing so with sufficient strength and speed to cut off the Ukrainian attack has always looked unlikely, and the opportunity is already lost if it were going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Which Tyler said: Looks like they're over the Siverskyi Donets North of Siverk (to the East of Lyman) https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/view/3325 Unconfirmed reports that they've got Kreminna, between Lyman and Severodonetsk. I'm sceptical, but huge if true, it's the main route NW from Severodonetsk, and the first capture North of the SD river, East of the Oskill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Board a bus in Georgia and shout pro-Russian slogans? Get ejected in a random location to the music of a volley of invective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 Another explicit description of how the breakthrough came about. Twit: NYT: The Critical Moment Behind Ukraine’s Rapid Advance - The New York Times (nytimes.com) And the twit 4/5 explains the sudden appearance of MRAPs and HEMTT armored engineering recovery vehicles in the random social media video clips deep within the Karkhiv drive in the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted September 13, 2022 Author Share Posted September 13, 2022 Russia's equipment losses in the last seven days are...extreme: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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