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Ukraine 19: In HARMS Way


Werthead

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On 9/14/2022 at 2:32 AM, ThinkerX said:

At this point, given NATO/US supplies and the Russians abandoning piles of stuff, I am starting wonder if Ukraine might not end up with more in the way of tanks and artillery pieces than they had a year ago...

 

As for the Russian tanks - most of them were abandoned because they had been immobilized/damaged. It is said that since development lines of UA and RUS tanks had split up some years ago, only small part of the vehicles may be easily brought back to working condition, Ukrainians lack specific replacements.

Other thing is during the escape from Kharkiv area Russians left some decent stuff behind, like prototype AA systems, radars and wreck of SU-35SM with advanced rockets and signal jamming device (top secret). This is heaven for Western and Ukrainian intelligence. BTW the plane wreck was lying there since March or so and Russians did not bother to clean up the crash site.

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Been a surprisingly quiet couple of days as both sides regroup and rearm.

It looks like Russia has shored up a new defensive line around Svatova, having reportedly pulled out last week. Looks like they came back in and are using it as the nexus for a new defensive effort in the east. This seems to have been inspired by the Russians re-engaging Ukrainian forces outside Lyman. This has prevented Ukrainian forces from breaking out from Lyman to threaten Severodonetsk (to the SE) and Svatova (to the NE) and turn a major defeat into a total fiasco. However, Russia seems to not have enough forces to defend Lyman with their preferred multiple rings of defence.

However, it looks like Russia only has two battalions in Lyman and are outnumbered by the Ukrainians, so it probably depends more on the time Ukraine needs to reinforce, rotate or re-equip rather than the resistance to determine when the wider Lyman area fully falls.

The Russians have switched to helicopters to resupply their forces in the Kherson salient, giving up on the pontoons over the Dnipro. This is probably far too little, too late. It looks like the Ukrainians are developing a plan to chop up the salient into multiple smaller zones and crush them. That's already happening in the north where Archhangelsk and Davydiv Brid are being cut off from the surrounding areas to be starved into submission.

The Russians have attacked the Karachun Dam near Kryvyi Rih to try to collapse the dam and wash away the Ukrainian pontoons over the Inhulets River. So far this has been ineffective.

Macron and Scholz seem to be developing a plan to "mediate" a ceasefire and end to the war, although after Ukraine's victory they seem to be scenting blood. Their new proposals, both made in direct phone calls to Putin, are for a total Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory in return for an end to hostilities (presumably preventing Ukraine from striking Russian soil, with of course a big question mark over Crimea) and some lessening of the sanctions. Putin may be more amenable to such a proposal after the last few weeks, but doesn't seem to be rushing to take up the offer.

Putin and Xi spoke at length today and in a public discussion Putin seemed to admit there are "concerns" over the course of the war in Ukraine and he is allaying Xi's concerns. He offered Xi his backing over Taiwan but Xi didn't seem hugely impressed.

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It's taking too long, but sanctions appear to be working to have bigger effects. This is likely not going to be something particularly well-controlled, but will instead possibly trigger an every-man-for-themselves scramble for resourcing.

 

 

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It is not surprising that the Russian economy is struggling.  Oil prices are down from ~$120 a barrel in March to $95 a barrel now.  Russia has to sell that oil at a steep discount ($30/barrel cheaper) to China and India because nobody else wants it.  Natural gas is even worse, since Russia has shut off the taps into Europe completely to "improve leverage", and they don't have anywhere near the capacity in place to move/sell all that gas to Asia. 

In the entire Putin era, Russia has relied on that energy money to reliably keep the economy churning.  That money train has stopped, right at the moment when all other advanced industries are also struggling/shutting down due to lack of foreign imports. 

Honestly, I'm amazed the Russian economy has survived as well as it has thus far.  The Russian economic managers/bankers are doing impressive work.  But they can't keep this up forever when the fundamentals are this bad. 

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6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Oil prices are down from ~$120 a barrel in March to $95 a barrel now.

Maithanet — yes; and it should decrease further as the US recession worsens in response to persistent inflation and what will most likely be higher than anticipated interest rates. All populations with a stake in this war will suffer, most especially Russian.

On the other hand, some populations will benefit. I suspect India and China will mix the cheap energy with non-Russian energy before selling it to the West at higher than normal profits.

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I saw an assessment elsewhere that seems right:

 

 

Quote

 

Translation: China is unhappy Russia is screwing up, alarming Western nations and getting them to focus on security and not being overly dependent on aggressive autocracies for trade. China worries that Russia’s current troubles in Ukraine are a foretaste of what China can expect if it attempts to seize Taiwan.

However, on the flip side, China is delighted to see Russia ruining its armed forces and reputation - makes it all the easier for China’s own ambitions in Central Asia. China is also happy to purchase Russian raw materials at cut-rate prices, and is also happy to make Russia dependent on China in various other ways.

On balance China is content to see the Russian bear with its snout firmly trapped in the bear trap of Ukraine, but is annoyed that the process is causing an overall tightening of security and damage to the notion of appeasement, which China hoped to take advantage of itself.

For Russian success or failure, or for that matter the fate of Ukrainians, China otherwise remains quite indifferent.

 

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1 hour ago, Wade1865 said:

The US would annihilate the PRC in a conventional war. Russia did the PRC a favor in reminding it of this fact.

The US would lose within two weeks when they found out they couldn't buy iPhones,  mypillows and cars.

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1 hour ago, KalVsWade said:

The US would lose within two weeks when they found out they couldn't buy iPhones,  mypillows and cars.

Taiwan is also a crucial part of many supply chains, so the US wouldn't be able to buy most of that stuff regardless of how they respond. So it might as well make good on those security assurances it provided in exchange for Taiwan giving up on its nuclear program.

Also, over the last year, I've seen many, many companies in my field try to make themselves less dependent on China. Partly because of Covid-shutdowns of their factories and ports, but also partly due to Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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12 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Russians have attacked the Karachun Dam near Kryvyi Rih to try to collapse the dam and wash away the Ukrainian pontoons over the Inhulets River. So far this has been ineffective.

The dam has been damaged, but it hasn't collapsed.

 

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7 hours ago, Gorn said:

Taiwan is also a crucial part of many supply chains, so the US wouldn't be able to buy most of that stuff regardless of how they respond. So it might as well make good on those security assurances it provided in exchange for Taiwan giving up on its nuclear program.

Also, over the last year, I've seen many, many companies in my field try to make themselves less dependent on China. Partly because of Covid-shutdowns of their factories and ports, but also partly due to Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yup, "onshoring" is now a huge thing in the USA and it's starting to come up as a thing in Europe as well. Or finding an alternate source of cheap goods and labour, India and countries in Africa seem well-poised to exploit that.

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A mass grave has been unearthed near Izyum. 300+ bodies, they seem to all be local civilians.

There were two "large" explosions overnight in Melitopol. Partisan activity around the town is very high.

26 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Those African countries that haven't been blessed with Chinese investment you mean. Thoght China has bought into most of Africa.

China has, but it has buyer's remorse. It's woken up to the fact that a lot of those investments will never be repaid, and that's helping send shockwaves through the Chinese economy.

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27 minutes ago, Werthead said:

A mass grave has been unearthed near Izyum. 300+ bodies, they seem to all be local civilians.

There were two "large" explosions overnight in Melitopol. Partisan activity around the town is very high.

China has, but it has buyer's remorse. It's woken up to the fact that a lot of those investments will never be repaid, and that's helping send shockwaves through the Chinese economy.

Finally realised that dude they were dealing with wasn’t really a Nigerian prince? 

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

A mass grave has been unearthed near Izyum. 300+ bodies, they seem to all be local civilians.

There were two "large" explosions overnight in Melitopol. Partisan activity around the town is very high.

Just read somewhere, that it's probably not a second Bucha. The grave contains civilians and soldiers, who died during the Russian attack.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

China has, but it has buyer's remorse. It's woken up to the fact that a lot of those investments will never be repaid, and that's helping send shockwaves through the Chinese economy.

That's weird, I thought of it more as a political investment to increase China's political influence (soft power) there. So not designed to earn a quick Yuan. 

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 

That's weird, I thought of it more as a political investment to increase China's political influence (soft power) there. So not designed to earn a quick Yuan. 

Even if is, it's not that useful in that regard because most of those regimes are inherently unstable, and the dictator they helped might be replaced by another one, or might simply turn against China if it suits them. In anyway, I doubt the soft power actually gained was that useful for the amount of money they spent.

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Just read somewhere, that it's probably not a second Bucha. The grave contains civilians and soldiers, who died during the Russian attack.

That's weird, I thought of it more as a political investment to increase China's political influence (soft power) there. So not designed to earn a quick Yuan. 

And how well did that work for the US in South and Central America?

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Depends, I'd think China also has the hard power to support regimes if need be. That is obviously speculation as China hasn't been involved in military operations for quite a while (did they do anything after the Vietnamese made a point, that they are not some Chinese colony and are absolutely able to defend their interests against the bigger brother, shortly after the Vietnam war? Genuine question). So their assumed military strength may or may not be up to task. Bit in any case it should be enough to protect their African investments, if need be. And it's kinda unfathomable, that they'd suck as hard as the Russians. 

Anyway, the Chinese have other domestic problems. The after effects of their One Child Policy. The age structure of their society will probably prevent them from replacing the US as the global super power. Unless, the GOP really manages to start a civil war at home. But then, we'd be having a different conversation, or possibly none.

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