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Ukraine 19: In HARMS Way


Werthead
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Yes, the Ukrainians have crossed the Oskil river around Kupyansk, and further north as well.  They aren't pushing much beyond that at the moment, likely because they need to bring up more supplies.  That is giving the Russians time to regroup, which is unfortunate. 

People who know more about military matters than me are insisting that the Russian defensive "line" isn't anchored by anything and the Ukrainians should have little difficulty bypassing strongpoints and outflanking the Russians in northern Luhansk.   If this is turning into a war of maneuver and outflanking (even with pauses in between thrusts) that definitely favors the Ukrainians with better trained troops and more flexible leadership.

And in the meantime, the Russian troops north of the Dnipro are still slowly disintegrating.  Just a matter of time before we get more good news on that front as well.  

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30 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

It is, and that's how anyone living at or close to a river will use it; but using it to describe geographic locations makes more sense when you can assume that your audience knows which way the rive flows. Not everyone knows which direction any particular river in Ukraine flows, before it eventually turns south to go to the Black Sea

Well, the Dniepr isn't exactly a minor creek. It's the third(?) longest river in Europe. That thing is quite long. But yeah, you can say, it pre-supposes a bit of knowledge in your audience, but people using the terms left and right side of the river are just going by the standard convention, so slacking them off for using the right terms technically felt wrong. If they used East instead of Left, you'd probably still need to look it up on a map anyway.

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but what if you are talking about the left or right bank of a river in Naboo where the water flows illogically and often against gravity?  how would you tell from looking at a map which way is downstream?

Edited by Pebble thats Stubby
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55 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Well, the Dniepr isn't exactly a minor creek. It's the third(?) longest river in Europe. That thing is quite long. But yeah, you can say, it pre-supposes a bit of knowledge in your audience, but people using the terms left and right side of the river are just going by the standard convention, so slacking them off for using the right terms technically felt wrong. If they used East instead of Left, you'd probably still need to look it up on a map anyway.

People who the left bank and right bank annoy better never ever go to New Orleans. :D

Edited by Zorral
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33 minutes ago, Zorral said:

People who the left bank and right bank annoy better never ever go to New Orleans. :D

They maybe can train first with the hundreds of other river deltas.

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Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are exchanging fire along the border and its looks like Tajikistan may have sent troops over the border. Kyrgyzstan has threatened to declare mobilisation if Tajikistan doesn't stop advancing, potentially triggering a full-scale war. Russia seems to have been caught completely on the hop by this and has so far failed to intervene. 

Armenia seems to be stepping up its criticism of the CSTO, declaring it useless because Russia won't back up the mutual defence part of the pledge. If the CSTO effectively collapses, that could be deeply embarrassing for Putin.

Ukrainian forces are over the Oskil now in at least three places and seem to be expanding their areas of operations. It looks like Ukraine is probing towards the Krasna River. Troits'ke is the next likely target for a Ukrainian offensive, taking it would cut the last rail link from Belgorod to Luhansk and force the Russians to reroute all logistics through Rostov. That's 30 miles from Kupyansk though.

Ukraine is making incremental progress in Kherson, but they seem to be bewildered by the Russian tactic of pouring troops in to die and then not being able to resupply them. 

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35 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine is making incremental progress in Kherson, but they seem to be bewildered by the Russian tactic of pouring troops in to die and then not being able to resupply them. 

The presumption that human life matters to the Russian Regime seems to be… unfounded.

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The presumption that human life matters to the Russian Regime seems to be… unfounded.

Not for touchy-feely reasons, but for simple preservation of resources reasons. Russia has expended 50,000 lives - mostly young Russian men in their teens,twenties and thirties - which they cannot remotely afford with their demographic decline. It sounds like what's going on in Kherson at the moment is carnage. The Ukrainians have almost run out of logistics targets so are hitting bunkers, barracks, trench positions. They blew up the main Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka yesterday with what looks like heavy casualties.

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7 hours ago, Wilbur said:

A Russian tank crew surrendered in exchange for some sandwiches, and naturally the internet has jokes.

 

This reminds of when Jeff Probst would temp people to drop out in Survivor challenges with tasty meals.

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Overview of the last few days, though by definition, out of date by the time he hits "publish"

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-september-13-15

 

Here's his map for those who want to zoom and pan:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1IAEioi_4fG25hwvtvq7IvkGIRSRBET4&ll=48.33671153241347%2C35.94865468395318&z=7

Edited by Which Tyler
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18 hours ago, Werthead said:

Russia has expended 50,000 lives - mostly young Russian men in their teens,twenties and thirties - which they cannot remotely afford with their demographic decline.

That said, Ukraine's demographic decline has been even worse than Russia's and they have a way smaller starting population. I hope for Ukraine's sake that their losses are significantly lower and that they aren't exposing their men as much. Merely by considering the demographic situation of both countries, this whole war is a pointless criminal bloodbath.

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32 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Merely by considering the demographic situation of both countries, this whole war is a pointless criminal bloodbath.

So much truth.

Most wars are either stupid or venal, but this one really stretches out there in the pointless stakes.

So of course that means supporting Ukraine to end it is critical.

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