Ukraine 19: In HARMS Way

[Maithanet]

Most of the things that have made the Ukrainian counterattacks this month successful would simply not apply to a battle in Crimea.  Ukraine would not have the support of the local population and would suffer from terrible supply lines.  Russia would be fighting on ground that many Russian soldiers do consider Russian (and in some cases, defending their actual homes).  The Russian navy would certainly get involved because without Sevastapol the Black Sea fleet is doomed.   

At the very least, recapturing Crimea would be extremely bloody and long.  If Ukraine embarks on that effort, it is quite possible that western support would begin to flag.  And Ukraine has a huge amount of work to do on rebuilding, and they will need western money to do that.  The sooner the war ends and the work of rebuilding begins, the better for everyone. 

EDIT: Obviously this is not up to me or the United States.  If Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders think that recapturing Crimea is achievable and worthwhile, that's their right.  But in my opinion, I think that would be a mistake. 

[Wilbur]

In case the progress in the war this week didn't leave you feeling good enough, here is a feel-good story from Georgia.

A Russian and a Lithuanian arrived in Georgia and hailed a taxi.  They demanded that the taxi driver speak Russian, but instead he played Ukrainian tunes and drove them 40 kilometers out of town when they shouted at him to turn it off.  He abandoned them at the Gombor Pass, and when they finally got back to their hotel, they filed a kidnapping complaint with the police.

A 12-person jury ruled that a.) it is not a crime to play Ukrainian tunes in your taxi, and b.) that the taxi driver was not guilty of kidnapping, and that c.) they did not believe the story the Russian and Lithuanian told in court.

Georgian taxi driver acquitted of kidnapping Russian-speaking passengers (oc-media.org)

[Jace, Extat]

What I take from Mr. Ripponet's Chomsky-ing is that Ukraine must become a nuclear armed state so that its territorial sovereignty is not considered a small cost to pay for future peaces by the rest of the world. In fact every state of every size must recognize this necessity, for the sake of their own existence in the face of naked aggressions future and present. 

Congratulations, your angst over nuclear war has left you arguing for outcomes that make nuclear proliferation a prerequisite of state security. 

[Maithanet]

I think that most of foreign relations in the past 30 years has made a pretty strong case in favor of nuclear proliferation for state actors.  The Ukraine war is just one more example.  If Ukraine had even a small arsenal of a dozen nukes, Russia never would have dared this invasion.  That would have saved a great deal of Ukrainian lives.

[Werthead]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I think that most of foreign relations in the past 30 years has made a pretty strong case in favor of nuclear proliferation for state actors.  The Ukraine war is just one more example.  If Ukraine had even a small arsenal of a dozen nukes, Russia never would have dared this invasion.  That would have saved a great deal of Ukrainian lives.

Or conversely it would have encouraged Russia to attempt to launch a sneak attack with overwhelming nuclear forces to completely sterilise the country and leave not even the remotest chance of a counterstrike, causing a great deal more loss of Ukrainian life.

As it stands, we are seeing countries like South Korea and Japan basically swinging towards wanting nuclear weapons when other countries on their doorsteps (North Korea) have them and are not shy about threatening other people with them, and Saudi Arabia has made it clear they will pursue nuclear weapons aggressively if Iran acquires them.

Non-proliferation only works as long as the extant nuclear powers agree to basically not use them or at least not threaten to use them, and the second that goes out the window, then it'll be a free-for-all, dramatically increasing the chances of them being used on at least a local level. And that's really bad news for everybody, including Russia.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I think that most of foreign relations in the past 30 years has made a pretty strong case in favor of nuclear proliferation for state actors.  The Ukraine war is just one more example.  If Ukraine had even a small arsenal of a dozen nukes, Russia never would have dared this invasion.  That would have saved a great deal of Ukrainian lives.

Going for the “Great Convention” theory of politics?

[Werthead]

Several Russian military bloggers and reporters were in Izyum today and told everyone to calm down and nothing is wrong and Russia is still in full control of the city.

About three hours later:

A Russian officer on the front, backed up by Girkin, has called this Russia's greatest military defeat since 1943 and seems to be calling for Shoigu or Gerasimov (or both) to be fired. He also indicates that Putin is getting bad information and may not even know the scale of the defeat, but there's no way they'll be able to hide Izyum's fall from him. There's some suggestion that as many as 10,000 troops are in the town and may have to surrender (though I'm dubious, troops were sent from Izyum to try to hold the roads and some appear to have legged it towards the Oskil)

[SeanF]

20 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Several Russian military bloggers and reporters were in Izyum today and told everyone to calm down and nothing is wrong and Russia is still in full control of the city.

About three hours later:

A Russian officer on the front, backed up by Girkin, has called this Russia's greatest military defeat since 1943 and seems to be calling for Shoigu or Gerasimov (or both) to be fired. He also indicates that Putin is getting bad information and may not even know the scale of the defeat, but there's no way they'll be able to hide Izyum's fall from him. There's some suggestion that as many as 10,000 troops are in the town and may have to surrender (though I'm dubious, troops were sent from Izyum to try to hold the roads and some appear to have legged it towards the Oskil)

Yeh, I think the Ukrainian campaign as a whole can be compared to Operation Mars.  Stalingrad overshadowed what was a serious Russian defeat at the hands of Army Group Centre.

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Yeh, I think the Ukrainian campaign as a whole can be compared to Operation Mars.  Stalingrad overshadowed what was a serious Russian defeat at the hands of Army Group Centre.

Yes and no. The defeat made the Russians moderately more cautious and also convinced them to switch to tactics that better suited their fighting style, inviting the Germans to attack defended ground and be pinned and ground down, which worked at Stalingrad (kind of) and later on at Kursk. Mars also drained German manpower that would be badly needed by Kursk.

The operation also convinced Hitler that he was smarter than all his generals - which was bad for Germany but good for Russia - and inversely seems to have convinced Stalin to give his generals freer hand. There's also disagreement on how Mars was planned and resourced (Mars got one-quarter the ammunition than Uranus around Stalingrad). 

I have a feeling he might have been referring - much more appropriately - to the Third Battle of Kharkiv in March 1943, although it was smaller in scale. During the battle the Soviets initially recaptured Kharkiv, Belgorod and Izyum (!) but then lost them to a German counter-attack, with a rough loss of 10 Soviet dead for every 1 German. The operation was poorly planned and resourced. Although it did also set up the Battle of Kursk, a much grander Russian victory.

So as long as the Ukrainians refrain from advancing on Kursk, they should be fine.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Firebrand Jace said:

What I take from Mr. Ripponet's Chomsky-ing is that Ukraine must become a nuclear armed state so that its territorial sovereignty is not considered a small cost to pay for future peaces by the rest of the world. In fact every state of every size must recognize this necessity, for the sake of their own existence in the face of naked aggressions future and present. 

Congratulations, your angst over nuclear war has left you arguing for outcomes that make nuclear proliferation a prerequisite of state security. 

That's not quite the point. 

I think Chomsky is looking for a peaceful WWII like solution. Social workers, special needs teachers, and yes, therapists will be parashooted into Russia to work on Volodya's anger issues. And as a deterrent, Care Bears will be dropped on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki; or rather Minsk and Vladivostok.

[Wilbur]

55 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Several Russian military bloggers and reporters were in Izyum today and told everyone to calm down and nothing is wrong and Russia is still in full control of the city.

About three hours later:

 

Given the diminutive size of that little red bottle jack, I hope that they are not in too much of a hurry to change that tire.

[Maithanet]

The Russians look to be abandoning Lyman (Donetsk oblast) without a fight.  Things are really falling apart fast.

 

[horangi]

So, come September 15th, when the Donetsk region is fully occupied, do the Ukrainian soldiers garrisoned there get to vote in the referendum?

[SeanF]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Russians look to be abandoning Lyman (Donetsk oblast) without a fight.  Things are really falling apart fast.

 

Izyum is untenable, going by that map.

[Wade1865]

Vladimir -- whatcha gonna do. watcha gonna do. when they come for you?

[Werthead]

Apparently the fighting at the refinery outside Lysychansk isn't partisans, its the 93rd Mechanised Brigade, the "Cold Ravine" armoured force. This is one of the most decorated and feared units in the Ukrainian military, who destroyed the 4th Guards Tank Division in Trostianets. They would not be deployed on a whim, so that's potentially a significant push right through the heart of Donbas and right back into the heart of the Russian mincer, or what at least should be one. Who knows what resistance they'll find. Severodonetsk might be a bridge too far, but retaking Lysychansk may now be realistic.

ETA: Apparently the 93rd are counter-attacking. The Russians assaulted their position and rather than just scaring them off, they decided to chase them and found nothing behind their lines. So another "reconnaissance in force," this time by the heaviest tanks in the Ukrainian military. 

It's not right outside Lysychansk, it's in Verkhnokam'yanka, but that's only 6km away so still pretty near.

Also (translations in the replies:)

  

40 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Izyum is untenable, going by that map.

It's also untenable by the videos of artillery and rocket systems being unloaded on Russian positions all around Izyum. I think Kyiv dropped their media blackout, Ukrainian Twitter is going crazy with videos of it.

The city itself isn't being targeted, or if it is, it's with HIMARS.

 

 

[Jace, Extat]

20 minutes ago, Werthead said:

 

.

The city itself isn't being targeted, or if it is, it's with HIMARS.

 

 

This ill conceived invasion has gotta be the most expensive military hardware demo in history right? 

Vlad, just go home brah

You don't want this in your life

[Wilbur]

Better detail on why Russian forces are being picked apart:  Math

Why Is Russia Losing on 3 Fronts? Math (the Short Answer) – Real Context News (RCN)

[Wade1865]

1 hour ago, Firebrand Jace said:

Vlad, just go home brah

You don't want this in your life

Firebrand Jace -- yes, what I started thinking, shortly after I came back to the board. I do sympathize with both armies but, if you're not going to mobilize the country, it's time to cut losses and conserve lives.

***

(or, go all out; )

[Maithanet]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

Izyum is untenable, going by that map.

Right, izyum is surrounded and just a matter of time.  But the Russians could have realistically made a stand at Lyman, itself an important city.  But indications are they are giving it up without a fight.  This was a city they took a month to capture back in spring.