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UK Politics- A Taxing Transition


polishgenius
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Will the pound sterling stabilize from its fall?  Is the US exporting its own inflation into the global market? Will China find payments on debt difficult to impossible? These questions and so many more.

The only question we do not have is, "Will massive tax cuts for the obscenely wealthy grow the economy?" because we know -- "No!" because tried that several times several places and made things worse.  So much so that people mistake the profits of Wall Street as the national economy.

Edited by Zorral
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42 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Will the pound sterling stabilize from its fall?  Is the US exporting its own inflation into the global market? Will China find payments on debt difficult to impossible? These questions and so many more.

The only question we do not have is, "Will massive tax cuts for the obscenely wealthy grow the economy?" because we know -- "No!" because tried that several times several places and made things worse.  So much so that people mistake the profits of Wall Street as the national economy.

I truthfully thought supply-side economics had been so discredited by, well, reality that I’m amazed it’s resurfaced. Not that the rich won’t of course always want it, but that it gets any popular support outside them. 

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To avoid any misunderstandings, the Kwarteng/Truss economic 'policy' doesn't have popular support - even among their own voters.
 

Quote

The poll suggested that voters disapproved of Kwarteng’s tax cuts which included axing the 45p tax rate for top earners.

This particular move was opposed by 72% of respondents to the YouGov survey, including 69% of participants who voted Tory in 2019.

The plan to lift caps on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71% of respondents, including 67% of Tory voters.

Only 9% of participants believed the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15% felt the new economic policies would achieve the aim of stimulating economic growth.

 

Edited by mormont
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5 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I truthfully thought supply-side economics had been so discredited by, well, reality that I’m amazed it’s resurfaced. Not that the rich won’t of course always want it, but that it gets any popular support outside them. 

FTR, this doesn't have any popular support - even amongst conservatives (MPs or voters, or, as far as anyone can tell, party members).

 

ETA: Dammit, ninja.d

Edited by Which Tyler
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6 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Ah, cheers, thanks. So this literally is legalized fraud/theft done in broad daylight. What times we live in. They’re not even trying to tie it into some divisive social issue a la American tradition?

Fraid so.
It's the death throws of a desperate party, who've been hijacked by a small minority on the far right wing, and who know that whatever they do, they're going to be kicked out in 2 years time; so are stealing all the silverware whilst they can.

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These tax policies are mostly total nonsense from people whose understanding of economics doesn’t appear to have updated in 20 years, who don’t actually seem to actually care about voters needs or political opinion.…

.. but all that said, some of the stuff people say in here makes me think I’ve wandered in QAnon sometimes 

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They're not stealing the silverware: that's largely gone, though if they can they'll take what's left.

Rather, they're placing a huge bet and paying for it on the credit card, in the belief that it will either pay off (in which case they win) or will fail (in which case they get kicked out and someone else cleans up the mess).

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"Tory lorries" help to carry on the looting, yes -- you know like the Proud Boys carrying the water for reichlican coupsters, enabling and supporting.  Anyway, you know, after all, it's not that bad!

 

Edited by Zorral
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Occam's Razor says the explanation that requires the fewest number of assumptions is usually the right one.

Which explanation for why Truss and Kwarteng implemented this mini-budget requires the fewest assumptions?

Some assumptions that may apply:

1) Truss and Kwarteng believed what they were doing would help the economy and markets.

1)a) Truss and Kwarteng are complete idiots, at least on matters of economic and fiscal policy

1)b) Truss and Kwarteng received extremely bad economic advice from treasury officials (who in theory are supposed to be politically neutral and give advice based on sound economic principles).

1)c) Truss and Kwarteng did not seek any advice from officials.

2) Truss and Kwarteng believed what they were doing would harm the economy and markets.

3) Truss and Kwarteng believed what they were doing would have almost no effect on the economy and markets.

3) Truss is under pressure  (including from Kwarteng) to deliver ideological policies of those (including Kwarteng) who most helped get her to #10.

3)a) Truss' puppet masters are purely motivated by ideology

3)b) Truss' puppet masters are motivated by ideology AND desires to enrich themselves / their friends / donors.

3)c)...?

4) Truss and / or Kwarteng wanted to influence markets to enrich friends / donors (so didn't need to be directed by puppet masters).

5) Truss has no clue on economic matters and deferred entirely to Kwarteng for solutions (assumption or fact?)

6) Truss and Kwarteng know they can't win the next election and so are seeking to enrich / ingratiate themselves for their unavoidable exit from parliament.

7)...there are probably a lot of other possible assumptions I haven't listed.

What evidence do we have to suggest some assumptions are more valid than others, e.g. did Kwarteng or Truss have conversations with people before the mini-budget who could stand to benefit from the mini-budget?

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45 minutes ago, Raja said:

 

So. The IMF (influenced doubtless by qnon) will not allow - or at least highly recommends Britain not to commit suicide.  Has this sort of thing ever happened to a 'rich' country before?

Edited by Zorral
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The problem with assumption (1) is that, even without any evidence corroborating other assumptions versus it (and we have at least some with that hedge fund meeting), there are multiple ways to be incompetent in that position without being incompetent in this specific way that also enriches a few specific people and kicks the poor in the dick. The chances of being this incompetent in this exact way with no attendant malice seem really fucking low.

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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Edited by Spockydog
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4 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

I have much sympathy for the workers.    to be honest I've had loads of sympathy for those who work in Weatherspoon's for years, I doubt its somewhere most people choose to work if they have much choice.

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