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US politics: Rovenber is coming.


Varysblackfyre321
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6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

According to 538's model (dangerous words I know), it is now more likely that the Democrats hold the House (29%) than the Republicans take the Senate (28%).  That feels too optimistic to me, I think that right now Democrats have a fairly clear path to 49 seats (winning PA and AZ), but getting to 50 means holding one of GA/NV and both of them feel shaky. I'm still pretty gunshy about assuming that the polling will hold up for Democrats.  The last 4 cycles have been 3 losses and 1 draw on that regard, and that certainly makes me uncomfortable.

Another way to think about it is, assuming Democrats win AZ and PA (which isn't guaranteed but both are likely based on the available data), are the odds that Democrats can win at least one of GA/NV/WI/OH/NC ~3x greater than the odds that Republicans get a clean sweep? To me, that feels about right. That still acknowledges a very real chance of Republicans winning, but none of those 5 races would be a shocker at all if Dems won them (though OH only because Vance is so awful). Its entirely plausible, though not that likely I think, that Democrats win all of them.

Also for GA, remember that there is a libertarian in the race, though he rarely gets his name included in the polls. There's a good chance that race goes to a run-off, where a lot of the same factors would be in play as the last run-off and I think Warnock would be favored.

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29 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Complete aside, but I rode for a few years when a boy, had a half-share in a horse*, shared in the grooming and so forth, and loved it.

My sister got and rode a horse when she was probably about 9-10.  That's right, my sister asked for a pony and my parents actually got her one.*  His name was (probably still is) Toby, and after my sister went to college my parents sold him.  I remember one time he had colic so my dad, brother and I spent an entire day walking him around the stables.

*To be fair, my family has a history with horses.  My great-grandfather - who raised my mother - was a horse trainer in California from the 30s to 60s and left us all a shit ton of money when he died.  When the book about Seabiscuit came out my mom kept on mentioning all the characters she knew growing up until we all told her we get it.

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27 minutes ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

There’s a reason real cowboys are bow-legged.  And involves taint callus.

Lol. I would definitely try to complete 50 miles a lot quicker than  12 hours.

You can teleport with them like in RDR2, right?

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

My sister got and rode a horse when she was probably about 9-10. 

 The golden child gripe begins to make more sense. :P

At least tell me they got you a nice car when you turned 16.

Edited by Tywin et al.
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8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

 The gold child gripe begins to make more sense. :P

?  I honestly don't know what this is referring to.  ETA:  Oh, if you mean me referring to my sister as the golden child over the years, yes, absolutely.  My brother and I made fun of her about mommy and daddy buying her a pony for quite some time.

And no, my parents have never bought me a car.  All my wasted money went to American University - although that was entirely the money my great-grandfather left to me.

Edited by DMC
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19 minutes ago, DMC said:

?  I honestly don't know what this is referring to.  ETA:  Oh, if you mean me referring to my sister as the golden child over the years, yes, absolutely.  My brother and I made fun of her about mommy and daddy buying her a pony for quite some time.

And no, my parents have never bought me a car.  All my wasted money went to American University - although that was entirely the money my great-grandfather left to me.

Lol, you know I don't edit posts for the most part, but I will if I catch something within a few seconds. 

Yeah, you've joked about her getting special treatment over the years without providing a ton of specifics. I'm not the jealous type, but if I was in your shoes I'd be pissed if she got a pony and I didn't even get like a $10,000 car, which would have gone a long ways when you were in HS (say a used Jeep Wrangler or lux car with >100K miles on it). 

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeah, you've joked about her getting special treatment over the years without providing a ton of specifics. I'm not the jealous type, but if I was in your shoes I'd be pissed if she got a pony and I didn't even get like a $10,000 car, which would have gone a long ways when you were in HS (say a used Jeep Wrangler or lux car with >100K miles on it). 

My parents have bought my brother (and my sister, for that matter) multiple cars over the years - albeit like you said, around the $10-15k range (maybe closer to twenty, but still, nothing outrageous).  The reason they didn't initially for me is I was making a decent amount of money when I got my license and had a friend/coworker that sold me hers for $600.  That was my decision, and my dad in particular wasn't happy about it.  Then when I started to go to AU in DC, I really didn't need one, so by the time I got down to Florida/Orlando at 22 I was in a position to buy (well, lease) my own decent car - which was all they'd be willing to pay for at that point anyway.

To be clear though, the reason I refer to my sister as the golden child is predominately a compliment.  My brother and I were fuck ups while she did everything right.  That's nothing to be ashamed of.  And while we made fun of her about the horse at least until her mid-20s, it eventually got old and really rings hollow these days.  When she got married her and her husband insisted on paying for virtually the entire wedding. 

If anything, much more than the horse, was all the work my brother and I did for her over the years e.g. helping her move (especially when she was an undergrad) and, particularly, re-wallpapering her room growing up.  But that was almost entirely just being good brothers.  With the latter though it took, like, an entire summer for us to get all the crap off that was underneath the previous wallpaper.  I still don't know what the fuck that was about because the house itself wasn't that old (and also we definitely could've just put the new wallpaper on top of it anyway but my dad is incredibly anal).  We listened to a lot of Jim Rome that summer.

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24 minutes ago, teej6 said:

What are the chances of winning the appeal with the 11th Circuit?

I'd say significant.  Briefly looking at the judges, there's three Obama appointees, one Clinton, and the Chief Judge - William Pryor - was nominated by Dubya. 

Now he's got a pretty fascinating wiki page.  He's from Alabama, and was Jeff Sessions' Deputy AG back in the 90s there.  He also called for the removal of Roy Moore back in 2003 when the latter disobeyed a court order about displaying the Ten Commandments (back in the day, this was a big thing).  Later, Obama appointed him to the US Sentencing Commission in 2013 where he served until 2018.

Anyway, I'd put all five of those on the "likely to side with the DOJ" side.  Then you have the six Trump appointed judges.  Some of them seem, well, likely in the bag for him, but not all.  Particularly his first two appointees - Newsom and Branch - got a significant amount of Democratic votes on confirmation.  So overall, definitely doesn't seem like a slam dunk for Trump.

Of course, either way whichever side loses will appeal to SCOTUS, so...

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55 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

We havent seen so many bought judges since Capones Chi town or maybe Tammany Hall?

Maybe its always been this way but it wasnt so blatantly open and apparent until we elected our (former) recent gangster to the W.H.

I don't know if it's a good or bad thing that the public realizes how politically-inclined the judiciary is and always has been.  This is the institution that established and perpetuated Jim Crow for over half a century, so it's not like that's anything new.  And, frankly, the American public has always had an absurdly naive view of the appellate court(s) as "above politics" or acting solely in the interest of "the rule of law."  That's a fiction lawyers have propagated and has never reflected reality. 

As for being "bought" by Trump, well, what about the litany of legal challenges he's been the complainant on that have been rejected over the last two years?  What about the fact he was, like, 1 for 60 on legal challenges immediately after the 2020 election - which is precisely why he had to resort to 1/6?  You could say that's whataboutism, but it certainly isn't in any empirical way when weighing the impact of those decisions to one district court judge siding with him on appointing a special master.

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6 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't know if it's a good or bad thing that the public realizes how politically-inclined the judiciary is and always has been. 

It's 100% a good thing that the scales are falling from the public's eyes. Judges and justices are among the biggest frauds in this country and it's beyond time the people see this.

And your parents should have bought you car, regardless of the details. Appreciate you sharing that though.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

And your parents should have bought you car, regardless of the details. Appreciate you sharing that though.

.....maybe the next time I'm arraigned I can appeal to the judge to order my parents to buy me a car in order to demonstrate their bias.

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What I wonder about Judge Loose Cannon, was she intimidated by the maga mobs that harass and threaten judges that 45 has indicated he doesn't like or have treated him wrong?  If she had ruled against him the mobs would be at her door that day.  For all we know, she could have received threatening phone calls and other forms of intimidation.  Did it happen?  Don't know.  Could it?  Possibly.  

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8 minutes ago, LongRider said:

What I wonder about Judge Loose Cannon, was she intimidated by the maga mobs that harass and threaten judges that 45 has indicated he doesn't like or have treated him wrong?

Even if she wasn't directly threatened, this is a very good question.  The implicit pressure Trump is putting on anybody that opposes him needs to be more directly confronted - more than just "semi-fascism" - and more specifically directed at him. 

That Biden speech was fine, and you don't want to call 40% of the country fascist, but there's nothing wrong with calling out Trump and his people for continuing to encourage/incite violence when a lot of these investigations are exactly about him encouraging/inciting violence in the first place.

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45 did sing her praises on his fake twitter after her first ruling.  He can turn on someone so easily, she must know this.  On the 2nd ruling, she knew the DOJ would send it out for appeal, takes the pressure off of her.   

Edited by LongRider
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