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US politics: Rovenber is coming.


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Since its past after labor day, its time to do poll watching. GA and NV are concerns, particularly since the 538 model puts both of them in the D column for a total of 51 in the Senate. GA is a worry because Kemp is comfortably on track to retain the governorship, and I just cant see too many vote switches. NV is a concern because of voter registration numbers. The polls also historically overestimate D strength in swing states, so I am girding myself for a kick in the crotch regarding the Senate (House was a lost cause although the number of seats lost wont be too bad). 

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16 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Since its past after labor day, its time to do poll watching. GA and NV are concerns, particularly since the 538 model puts both of them in the D column for a total of 51 in the Senate. GA is a worry because Kemp is comfortably on track to retain the governorship, and I just cant see too many vote switches. NV is a concern because of voter registration numbers. The polls also historically overestimate D strength in swing states, so I am girding myself for a kick in the crotch regarding the Senate (House was a lost cause although the number of seats lost wont be too bad). 

Yeah, I think 538's model has gone overboard on the Dems' Senate chances.  Pennsylvania/Fetterman still seems secure - and that pick-up does make it more like 55-60 for the Dems, but not at ~ 70 where it's been the past week or so.  The good news is the recent special elections have shown actual results - not polls - that durably suggest a much more favorable cycle for Dems than should be expected.  BUT, there's still seven weeks left.

Again, what I'm most confident about are the gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and that's very important for 2024.  Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada though...those are gonna be nailbiters.

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To the end of his life, Starr showed up wherever there was room for one to excuse sexual assault if it was committed by a Republican.

When it seemed his former protégé Brett Kavanaugh might have his own Supreme Court nomination derailed by the sexual violence of his past, who was there to stand up for him? Ken Starr!

 

Kavanaugh was also there working for Starr during the badgering of Lewinsky and the Clinton impeachment.

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O-o

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The House committee investigating the US Capitol assault has received additional material from the Secret Service in response to a subpoena, but members aren’t saying whether it sheds new light on missing agency text messages.

Representative Zoe Lofgren, a Democrat, on Wednesday described some of the records as “relevant” and worthwhile to the panel’s ongoing probe of the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection.

US House Panel Gets More Secret Service Records in Jan. 6 Probe - Bloomberg

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SCOTUS back in the news (though it won't get much coverage probably). 

Conservatives finally have found the line that Roberts and Kavanuagh aren't willing to cross in the name of religious freedom; namely, overrule the entire body of procedure for a state justice system and preemptively issue an injunction. Not great that the other 4 conservatives would be okay with doing it though.

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23 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Kavanaugh was also there working for Starr during the badgering of Lewinsky and the Clinton impeachment.

People also tend to forget Starr’s disastrous tenure as president of Baylor University. Under his stewardship a number of rapes and sexual assaults were reported and the university failed to follow up on them leading to his firing. Great guy, right?

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24 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

tenure as president of Baylor University.

Penn State all over again, though this time it was players and (very) young women doing the raping, instead of these old guy coaches doing it to little boys.

 

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49 minutes ago, DMC said:

Rubio cosponsors Graham's abortion ban bill, after saying just three weeks ago is should be left to the states.  Nice.

Republican strategists are better than their Democratic (and democratic) counterparts. If they're pivoting to bring more attention to abortion I suspect they have a good plan. Rubio and Graham are two of the smarter ones. Mock your enemy at your own peril. 

 

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1 minute ago, Firebrand Jace said:

Republican strategists are better than their Democratic (and democratic) counterparts. If they're pivoting to bring more attention to abortion I suspect they have a good plan. Rubio and Graham are two of the smarter ones. Mock your enemy at your own peril. 

 

....I said yesterday Graham's bill is quite possibly an effort to get out the GOP base precisely because the enthusiasm gap has shrunk to nil.  This probably reflects that as well.  Still doesn't change the fact the 15 week ban is very unpopular in Florida and Rubio obviously just etch-a-sketched within three weeks.  Doubt this will change the overwhelming likelihood Rubio wins reelection, but please, the last thing I need is lectures or warnings from you.

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3 minutes ago, Firebrand Jace said:

Republican strategists are better than their Democratic (and democratic) counterparts. If they're pivoting to bring more attention to abortion I suspect they have a good plan. Rubio and Graham are two of the smarter ones. Mock your enemy at your own peril. 

 

Rubio is the walking definition of an empty suit and Graham isn't much better. They've both gotten ahead by being cynical and shameless. They're not smart and are absolutely terrible people.

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9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Rubio is the walking definition of an empty suit and Graham isn't much better. They've both gotten ahead by being cynical and shameless. They're not smart and are absolutely terrible people.

Still doesn't mean they aren't two of the smarter ones, given the competition.

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“If there’s a new member of a court and all of a sudden everything is up for grabs, all of a sudden very fundamental principles of law are being overthrown, are being replaced, then people have a right to say: What’s going on there? That doesn’t seem very law-like,” she said.

Kagan repeats warning that Supreme Court is damaging its legitimacy
The justice's pointed comments follow Chief Justice John Roberts' recent lament that unpopular decisions shouldn't undercut the court.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/14/kagan-supreme-court-legitimacy-00056766

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Even if the Republicans take back both chambers this cycle and Trump wins in 2024 and ushers in his own reich and we all are summarily executed within 3 years, that doesn't mean anybody in the Republican party is being particularly "smart" right now and certainly are not "smarter" than Dem operatives.  Exploiting built-in advantages and now fragrantly cheating doesn't mean the victors are smart, it means the electorate is especially stupid -- or apathetic without hope.

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