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China why haven’t pro-democracy movements been able to take root?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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Those of my generation remember the Tianenmen Square protests in Beijing. The images of one of the protesters stoping a line of tanks by standing in the middle of the road.  

Why hasn’t the pro-Democracy movement gotten more traction in China?  Is it because the existing system is too much like the traditional Confusion philosophy that holds in so much of China?  Why can’t the PRC be liberalized?

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Those of my generation remember the Tianenmen Square protests in Beijing. The images of one of the protesters stoping a line of tanks by standing in the middle of the road.  

Why hasn’t the pro-Democracy movement gotten more traction in China?  Is it because the existing system is too much like the traditional Confusion philosophy that holds in so much of China?  Why can’t the PRC be liberalized?

Do you know what happened to that person who stopped the line of tanks? How successful were the Hong Kong protests?

I think this is a category error. Democracy is not a standard thing for countries or leadership models to gravitate to. It has very rarely succeeded in places without a strong western-centric history of philosophy, culture and acceptance of large human rights and individualism. That is not much of the world. Democracies have largely not done particularly well and we are seeing more and more backsliding into autocratic systems across the board, even in places that had had a fairly decent history of that. For countries with a younger democracy like the US (with full rights for all citizens only in place since 1960s) backsliding is even more common. 

In the grand scale of things democracy doesn't have a long history, nor does it have a great track record in that history; there's a lot of "democracy, but only for rich white men" even in the best of places. China has had an incredibly long history of dynastic, long-term autocratic rule combined with a strong bureaucratic managerial class and aims towards meritocratic viewpoint, and that has largely worked out well for their country. 

Now, one thing to consider: right now, for arguably the first time, China has a very strong middle class of relatively affluent urban technophiles. It is not clear if things go badly in the country how they will react or what they will call for. But even then it is unlikely they will ask for democracy; chances are good they will instead ask for new leadership. 

 

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15 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

China has a very strong middle class of relatively affluent urban technophiles.

An emerging professional class is indeed one of the key factors associated with democratization, but I agree that doesn't necessarily mean it will for China.

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Those of my generation remember the Tianenmen Square protests in Beijing. The images of one of the protesters stoping a line of tanks by standing in the middle of the road.  

Why hasn’t the pro-Democracy movement gotten more traction in China?  Is it because the existing system is too much like the traditional Confusion philosophy that holds in so much of China?  Why can’t the PRC be liberalized?

Pure anecdotical from personal talk. They don't give a shit. The government basically has a bargain with them. Improve our lot and make some of us rich and we leave you alone.

Unfortunately Xi Jin ping is actually a bad leader and let's this bargain slip.

 

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

An emerging professional class is indeed one of the key factors associated with democratization, but I agree that doesn't necessarily mean it will for China.

Yep. I think a lot of people get into the idea that middle class which is upset means more democracy, when a lot of times it just means ouster of existing leadership for a different autocrat viewpoint that goes a different direction. One could kinda squint and say that that's a democratic process but it really isn't, any more than dictatorships are democratic because dictators are often held accountable at the end of a barrel of a gun. 

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5 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Yep. I think a lot of people get into the idea that middle class which is upset means more democracy, when a lot of times it just means ouster of existing leadership for a different autocrat viewpoint that goes a different direction.

As kiko just alluded to, authoritarian governments have gotten really good at appeasing the professional class without democratizing - even without a change in regime/leadership.

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1 hour ago, kiko said:

Unfortunately Xi Jin ping is actually a bad leader and let's this bargain slip.

For the past few decades China had a pretty OK (definitely not great) system of rotating leaders out and providing incentives for stable, competant leadership.  Obviously no system is perfect, but at least for a while it served to avoid the worst excesses of autocracy and somewhat limit corruption. 

Xi Jinping has basically dismantled that system by making himself autocrat for life, and filling many other key positions with loyal allies.  That does not bode well for good governance in China going forward. 

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Because the system works for most people. A large portion of the population has been lifted up from absolute poverty and a true middle and working class have formed. For most people's lives prosperity and rule of law have gone only gone up and corruption has only gone down. Most Chinese do not feel oppressed by their government the oppression you read about in the news happens to minorities in far flung provinces and westernized dissidents whose mindset and values are alien to the average Chinese. The average Chinese is not restricted from doing what they want to do.

Also China is not a fake democracy like Russia or Egypt. This gives the state a much stronger foundation then most authoritarian regimes. 

  • 13 hours ago, KalVsWade said:

    yNow, one thing to consider: right now, for arguably the first time, China has a very strong middle class of relatively affluent urban technophiles. It is not clear if things go badly in the country how they will react or what they will call for. But even then it is unlikely they will ask for democracy; chances are good they will instead ask for new leadership. 

     

    I think this is key. Reading about China in media again and again you see the the idea that Chinese are "trading lack of democracy for prosperity" I have never heard anyone express this view in China people support the government because it's reasonably competent and had provided many paths to success or if not success betterment.

  • The people who have the most questioning I've found are law students who often hold some "unorthodox" views

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24 minutes ago, Darzin said:
  • Because the system works for most people. A large portion of the population has been lifted up from absolute poverty and a true middle and working class have formed. For most people's lives prosperity and rule of law have gone only gone up and corruption has only gone down. Most Chinese do not feel oppressed by their government the oppressionyou read about in the news happens to minorities in far flung provinces and westernized dissidents whose mindset and values are alien to the average Chinese. The average Chinese is not restricted from doing what they want to do.
  •  
  • Also China is not a fake democracy like Russia or Egypt. This gives the state a much stronger foundation then most authoritarian regimes. 
  • I think this is key. Reading about China in media agian and agian the idea that Chinese are "trading lack of democracy for prosperity" I have never heard anyone express this view in China people support the government because it's reasonably competent and had provided many paths to success or if not success betterment.

  • The people who have the most questioning I've found are law students who often hold some "unorthodox" views

 

 

 

Out of curiosity… how do the rather stringent COVID restrictions that have been put in place in a number of cities play into this?  Because the average person in China trusts the State… it’s no big deal?

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During the era of T***p-ism, I found myself thinking, “I’m glad to be in China instead of back home,” on an almost daily basis.  I never once thought, “I wish I could move my whole family back home right now.”  Then again, I’m just a typical working-class ex-pat, so YMMV.

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10 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Out of curiosity… how do the rather stringent COVID restrictions that have been put in place in a number of cities play into this?  Because the average person in China trusts the State… it’s no big deal?

I think if I understood him correctly, you answered your own question.

It always seemed to me that a very slow motion set of events were started with the H.K. handoff in 1999. I never doubted that the mainland would slowly but surely tighten H.K. like a vice till it lost its automony and more democratic characteristics and came under the thumb.

How long Taiwan can remain from under the thumb is intriguing, but I see the same slow motion capitulation playing out there eventually.

That said, as Darzin posted, your average Chinese citizen has known a generation of increased prosperity, growth into a global powerhouse. My guess is on average Chinese patriotism is at least as strong as American support for their government.

Xi no worse than Trump.

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On 9/17/2022 at 3:10 AM, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Out of curiosity… how do the rather stringent COVID restrictions that have been put in place in a number of cities play into this?  Because the average person in China trusts the State… it’s no big deal?

For most lock downs not much, though I dunno if I'd say it's because people trust the state so much as the governments control of media allowed people to by in to the public health idea. There was of course grumbling but most people did alright.Also most of China his not that restricted and hasn't been for a while most cities have experienced at most two lockdowns the first whole country lockdown and a second if cases were found. In most places lockdowns were just the guidelines in the west but enforced as hard rules.

The big exception is Shanghai which got crazy strict and  things got a bit out of hand and I'm in some "edgy" wechats groups  with some rather graphic footage of that. People attacking healthcare workers and people getting forceably quarantined. The thing is the people who participated were not democratic revolutionaries wanting to overthrow the government they were fighting to go buy vegetables. I have a friend who teaches in Shanghai and in his students presentations they got rather angry about it. But a girl writing a poem about protecting her cat doesn't mean she wants multiparty western liberal democracy.

I guess if you think of an Assyrian or Medieval peasant they might resent a bad king but that doesn't mean they want democracy. The level of democratic conciousness and politcal engagement here is very low. There is not much framework for it, and the system is working decently for most people. Most everyone is living better than their parents, oftentimes by an order of magnitude so people don't see the need to look for outside solutions.  There are of course outliers but most of those are cultural liberals rather than political. 

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Possibly it's apocryphal, but I've heard stories of the Chinese government hosing the blood down the sewers after the tanks ran over protesters.

Also it's got be demoralizing for the pro democracy factions in China when they see the Big Guy selling out all principles for mere tens of million dollars.

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3 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Possibly it's apocryphal, but I've heard stories of the Chinese government hosing the blood down the sewers after the tanks ran over protesters.

Also it's got be demoralizing for the pro democracy factions in China when they see the Big Guy selling out all principles for mere tens of million dollars.

Who… pray tell… is “the Big Guy”?

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I imagine all the people getting arrested and murdered might have something to do with it. The economy doing well until recently also played a big role: countries change from dictatorships to democracy usually after a massive economic downturn or losing a war, and neither happened in China for quite some time, though Xi is working on it

 

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On 9/16/2022 at 6:17 PM, KalVsWade said:

I think this is a category error. Democracy is not a standard thing for countries or leadership models to gravitate to. It has very rarely succeeded in places without a strong western-centric history of philosophy, culture and acceptance of large human rights and individualism. That is not much of the world.

 

Is it really true though that democracy is some uniquely Western/European thing? Of course you can argue that many democracies outside Europe are founded on the legacy of colonialism, where Western ideas already existed once those countries became independent. But every country’s road do democracy has been different. Taiwan and South Korea developed democracies from military dictatorships. Japan was an extremely authoritarian society, was democratised by force, yet democracy stuck around there. (Afghanistan - well, different story.) Thailand has drifted in and out of democracy, Indonesia has their own version of buddhistic democracy and so on. All those countries are very different from the Western philosophical traditions.

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Democracy isn't exactly going great for the UK right now with a Government full of lizards with no empathy, cost of living spiralling out of control, so many people living in poverty.

If I was in China I'd be looking at UK/US/Western democracy and be thinking "thanks but no thanks"

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