If Stannis Baratheon's ships weren't destroyed by wildfire would he have taken Kings Landing?

[rushzone]

Would Stannis have taken King's Landing and won the Battle of Blackwater Bay if his ships weren't destroyed by wildfire or would the combined might of the Lannister/Tyrell host have defended Kings Landing anyway? I understand that he still outnumbered the defense of Kings Landing even after most of his army was killed but would the larger army have really made a difference? I mean nearly 70,000 Lannister/Tyrell forces were descending on the city, so wouldn't the Lannisters have won anyways? I mean if Stannis almost breached the city after most of his army was destroyed then surely the 70,000 Lannister/Tyrell forces could retake the city, right?

[Corvinus85]

If the fleet had not suffered such a devastating and destructive loss, the troops on the ships would have had an easier time landing and would have been in greater number than they were. This would have allowed them to better resist any sorties from the city. Additionally the ships would have provided cover fire for the crossing troops. So all in all, Stannis's army would have had an easier time assaulting the walls and the gates. 

Additionally, the Tyrell/Lannister army arrived undetected. This is partially because of the smoke from the burning kingswood, but the smoke of the burning ships added to it. 

If Stannis had gotten into the city, it would have been a timing thing. Would he have had time to reach the Red Keep and take Cersei and Joffrey hostage? If he had them in hand, Tywin and the Tyrells couldn't have done much then. Also, Stannis's knights and men-at-arms would have been a more able defense force than the Gold Cloaks.

But there are other factors that led to Stannis's defeat. I mentioned the kingswood - Shagga and the other clansmen men did a great job harassing Stannis's army, and when the kingswood got burned out, it provided great cover for the arriving reinforcements. Also, and this is a big one, Stannis's fleet was delayed by a storm. His army arrived on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush days ahead. Imagine if the fleet had stayed coordinated with the army. 

[rushzone]

5 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

 

If Stannis had gotten into the city, it would have been a timing thing. Would he have had time to reach the Red Keep and take Cersei and Joffrey hostage? If he had them in hand, Tywin and the Tyrells couldn't have done much then. Also, Stannis's knights and men-at-arms would have been a more able defense force than the Gold Cloaks.

 

Oh wow I didn't even think of that. Yeah if Stannis took Cersei and her children hostage Tywin wouldn't dare press the attack. This would give the Baratheon forces time to consolidate control of the city. But would Stannis really keep Cersei and Joffrey hostages indefinitely? Or would he hold a public execution and sacrifice them to R'hllor?

[Corvinus85]

13 hours ago, rushzone said:

Oh wow I didn't even think of that. Yeah if Stannis took Cersei and her children hostage Tywin wouldn't dare press the attack. This would give the Baratheon forces time to consolidate control of the city. But would Stannis really keep Cersei and Joffrey hostages indefinitely? Or would he hold a public execution and sacrifice them to R'hllor?

Because Tommen was kept safe thanks to Tyrion, Stannis would have been an idiot to execute Joffrey, because if he did, the claim of Cersei's children would automatically pass to Tommen and Tywin would then be free to continue the war. There is also the fact that Stannis would want to prove the illegitimacy of Cersei's children, and the best way would be to parade Joffrey around. Cersei may be kept alive again for Tywin's good behavior, too, but I could see maybe she being sacrificed.

That being said, I'm curious if Stannis would have kept to the faith of R'hllor if he won at KL, or if he would have discarded Melisandre to go back to the Seven to appease the majority of people.

[MattJ]

6 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

That being said, I'm curious if Stannis would have kept to the faith of R'hllor if he won at KL, or if he would have discarded Melisandre to go back to the Seven to appease the majority of people.

I always see Stannis as a guy who doesnt backtrack. He'd have kept following R'hllor and probably built a church in KL but I doubt he'd have put much effort into it after that. Maybe burn a few people that would have been beheaded otherwise.

I do wonder how the war would have played out with Stannis on the throne. Do the Tyrell's defect again? Seems like they'd quickly abandon Tywin since they hadnt committed themselves too badly but who knows. Then Robb is still a traitor in the Riverlands so there's still a 3-way war, not even counting the Ironborn

[rushzone]

18 hours ago, MattJ said:

 

I do wonder how the war would have played out with Stannis on the throne. Do the Tyrell's defect again? Seems like they'd quickly abandon Tywin since they hadnt committed themselves too badly but who knows. Then Robb is still a traitor in the Riverlands so there's still a 3-way war, not even counting the Ironborn

I don't think Loras would like the Tyrells joining up with Stannis considering the only reason he convinced the Tyrells to join forces with the Lannisters was to get revenge for Stannis killing Renly. The Tyrells would probably join forces with Robb Stark and fight Tywins hosts. After that it gets tricky because Robb doesn't care who sits on the Iron throne so he would probably accept Stannis as the rightful king. Robb would turn home to retake Winterfell from the Iron Born. Meanwhile Loras and Mace Tyrell would start fighting with Stannis for the Iron Throne. This alternate history gets really tricky tbh

[rushzone]

On 9/22/2022 at 12:21 PM, Corvinus85 said:

Because Tommen was kept safe thanks to Tyrion, Stannis would have been an idiot to execute Joffrey, because if he did, the claim of Cersei's children would automatically pass to Tommen and Tywin would then be free to continue the war. There is also the fact that Stannis would want to prove the illegitimacy of Cersei's children, and the best way would be to parade Joffrey around. Cersei may be kept alive again for Tywin's good behavior, too, but I could see maybe she being sacrificed.

That being said, I'm curious if Stannis would have kept to the faith of R'hllor if he won at KL, or if he would have discarded Melisandre to go back to the Seven to appease the majority of people.

That's true Stannis needs Joffrey alive but I think he would proclaim her children bastards of incest and  he would hold a public execution for Cersei where Melisandre would burn her under the great Sept of Baelor. Also the Tyrells would probably defect and join forces with Robb Stark and take Casterely Rock. After that I don't know, with Tywin out of the picture its really the Tyrells vs. Stannis

[MattJ]

On 9/23/2022 at 12:52 PM, rushzone said:

I don't think Loras would like the Tyrells joining up with Stannis considering the only reason he convinced the Tyrells to join forces with the Lannisters was to get revenge for Stannis killing Renly. The Tyrells would probably join forces with Robb Stark and fight Tywins hosts. After that it gets tricky because Robb doesn't care who sits on the Iron throne so he would probably accept Stannis as the rightful king. Robb would turn home to retake Winterfell from the Iron Born. Meanwhile Loras and Mace Tyrell would start fighting with Stannis for the Iron Throne. This alternate history gets really tricky tbh

See I'm not sure the Tyrells wouldnt just pack it up and go home. They're very good at not fighting. I'd say they just return to Highgarden and maybe join the stronger of Stannis or Tywin, who cant stop fighting each other. Either way, they'd be pretty exhausted to try and take on Robb. I'd say best case scenario where the winner controls Crownlands, Stormlands, Reach, and maybe Iron Islands, if they even bother re-asserting control over them.

And then Aegon and Dany show up. What a mess haha

[Corvo the Crow]

On 9/22/2022 at 5:51 AM, rushzone said:

Oh wow I didn't even think of that. Yeah if Stannis took Cersei and her children hostage Tywin wouldn't dare press the attack. This would give the Baratheon forces time to consolidate control of the city. But would Stannis really keep Cersei and Joffrey hostages indefinitely? Or would he hold a public execution and sacrifice them to R'hllor?

Tywin waited half a year when Aerys was held hostage at Duskendale, only after Barristan rescued him Tywin ordered the attack. For his own blood, against Stannis, he'll definitely stay his hand. Stannis can indefinitely held them hostage, against Tywin, Roses wouldn't be of the same idea though, not for long. Best bet he'll have is take them captive, along with the "poxy" Twins of Redwyne, rescue Sansa, loot the treasury, send the captives and gold back to Dragonstone while leaving behind a sizable force that will deter an attack for a while along with some hostages, say Cersei and a one of the Redwynes. He can send a raven to Robb informing he has rescued her sister, and would be accomodating her as a guest, until the roads are safe, if you get my meaning. Robb would gladly throw away the crown he never wanted for his sister. Tywin won't attack and he'll manage to hold off Reach from attacking for a while. Robb would be wreaking havoc in Westerlands so not being able to attack, Tywin would be forced to return to the west, again. Reachmen may attack but by then Stannis could pull the rest of his troops. Stannis has

[TeethGrinder]

On 9/23/2022 at 5:52 PM, rushzone said:

I don't think Loras would like the Tyrells joining up with Stannis considering the only reason he convinced the Tyrells to join forces with the Lannisters was to get revenge for Stannis killing Renly. The Tyrells would probably join forces with Robb Stark and fight Tywins hosts. After that it gets tricky because Robb doesn't care who sits on the Iron throne so he would probably accept Stannis as the rightful king. Robb would turn home to retake Winterfell from the Iron Born. Meanwhile Loras and Mace Tyrell would start fighting with Stannis for the Iron Throne. This alternate history gets really tricky tbh

Did Loras think Stannis killed Renly? I thought he blamed Brienne. 

[BlackLightning]

Yes.

Would he have been able to hold it is the better question. And the answer to that question is probably not.

The smallfolk would revolt the moment Stannis starts executing and sacrificing people to the flames. Plus, then there are his trademark policies (i.e. outlawing prostitution) to think about.

Stannis doesn't have the manpower or the skill needed to quell unhappy/terrified smallfolk and defend the city against a siegeforce of ~80,000. Plus, Tommen is not even in the city so the fight can continue in his name.

[hnv]

Nothing. at best he storms the red keep and takes Joff and Cersei's head off only to be taken by the rear by Tywin\Tyrell alliance. Tywin would have acted swiftly and wed Tommen to Marj. Hell he might be slightly pleased with Cersei out.

Most likely Stannis would have started to siege the red keep and then taken by the rear only now he couldn't escape by sea. Within a fortnight his head would meet some spikes and tar.