How much of Ramsay's and Roose's actions were planned?

[Rosetta Stone]

Roose had no choice but to go along with the Stark's rebellion.  He had to go or else have the Starks destroy his house.   Somebody had to mind the land while he was away.  The only choice he had was his abnormal son.  I am sure he was hoping the son would have done a better job but that is the problem faced by fathers.  Roose was planning to betray Robb all along and only needed an opening. 

[Darth Sidious]

On 9/23/2022 at 3:51 AM, Craving Peaches said:

But Roose rebelled alongside the Starks when they first rebelled. His armies clashed with the Lannisters. 

I thought that psychopaths, at least one type, had a lack of long term planning skills/didn't consider the long term consequences of their actions very much. Ramsay seems to want instant gratification and I don't think he has the patience to wait for long-term plans to pay off. So he may not have thought much about how his treatment of Lady Hornwood could affect his survival later on, looking only at what her death got him in the moment.

I think Roose thinks through everything while Ramsay thinks through basically nothing.

In my opinion, Roose is a bit stuck because he knows Ramsay is unsuitable but he doesn't want a boy lord ruling house Bolton. He seems to think he won't live much longer, which is odd.

Roose had to obey Robb. At least it had to look that way. The Starks would have done to his Dreadfort what the Tullys did to the Goodbrooks. 

[Craving Peaches]

34 minutes ago, Darth Sidious said:

Roose had to obey Robb. At least it had to look that way. The Starks would have done to his Dreadfort what the Tullys did to the Goodbrooks. 

I'm not sure if Roose was planning on betraying Robb right from the very start.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Ramsay can't have sacked Winterfell without Roose being unaware of it or not having given certain instructions, the fact he ordered his men to spare the Frey boys and take them not as captives is a proof that he had instructions from his father to spare them. 

[Arthur Peres]

42 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I'm not sure if Roose was planning on betraying Robb right from the very start.

For me it's very clear that he botched the battle of the Green Fork on purpose.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Arthur Peres said:

For me it's very clear that he botched the battle of the Green Fork on purpose.

I think he did too but I can't remember whether it was part of a larger plan to fool Tywin or not. But I think Roose may have used it to get rid of the Hornwoods so their lands could be claimed.

[Arthur Peres]

5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think he did too but I can't remember whether it was part of a larger plan to fool Tywin or not. But I think Roose may have used it to get rid of the Hornwoods so their lands could be claimed.

It was not part of the plan, if anything Roose did everything Robb asked him, not to.

From the start Robb was hesitant to face Tywin:

Robb hesitated. “The Greatjon thinks we should take the battle to Lord Tywin and surprise him,” he said, “but the Glovers and the Karstarks feel we’d be wiser to go around his army and join up with Uncle Ser Edmure against the Kingslayer.” He ran his fingers through his shaggy mane of auburn hair, looking unhappy. “Though by the time we reach Riverrun . . . I’m not certain . . . ”

Then Robb started to explain his plan

Robb drew a map across the table, a ragged piece of old leather covered with lines of faded paint. One end curled up from being rolled; he weighed it down with his dagger. “Both plans have virtues, but . . . look, if we try to swing around Lord Tywin’s host, we take the risk of being caught between him and the Kingslayer, and if we attack him . . . by all reports, he has more men than I do, and a lot more armored horse. The Greatjon says that won’t matter if we catch him with his breeches down, but it seems to me that a man who has fought as many battles as Tywin Lannister won’t be so easily surprised.”

“I’d leave a small force here to hold Moat Cailin, archers mostly, and march the rest down the causeway,” he said, “but once we’re below the Neck, I’d split our host in two. The foot can continue down the kingsroad, while our horsemen cross the Green Fork at the Twins.” He pointed. “When Lord Tywin gets word that we’ve come south, he’ll march north to engage our main host, leaving our riders free to hurry down the west bank to Riverrun.”

Robb wanted to draw Tywin north, then take Jaime by surprise, he wanted Tywin on march so that he could not help Jaime and he did not thought to surprise Tywin, instead he wanted the infantry to stall for time. Greatjon was sacked because he idea was either too risk or too foolish, instead they go with Roose for cunning.

Tywin did fall for Robb's plan, and went on to march North like the young wolf wanted, he would waste even more days if Roose did not marched on him.

“My lord,” he said, “Ser Addam bid me tell you that the Stark host is moving down the causeway.”

“So the wolfling is leaving his den to play among the lions,” he said in a voice of quiet satisfaction. “Splendid. Return to Ser Addam and tell him to fall back. He is not to engage the northerners until we arrive, but I want him to harass their flanks and draw them farther south.”

“We are well situated here,” Ser Kevan pointed out. “Close to the ford and ringed by pits and spikes. If they are coming south, I say let them come, and break themselves against us.”

“The boy may hang back or lose his courage when he sees our numbers,” Lord Tywin replied. “The sooner the Starks are broken, the sooner I shall be free to deal with Stannis Baratheon. Tell the drummers to beat assembly, and send word to Jaime that I am marching against Robb Stark.”

If anything, Roose should have stopped his march the moment he is harassed by the Lannisters skirmisher, and either retreat to draw Tywin even more, or picked a place to defend himself. Tywin would just see that as Robb losing his temper and being coward as his coments show.

His father had set a grueling pace, and it had taken its toll. Men wounded in the battle kept up as best they could or were abandoned to fend for themselves. Every morning they left a few more by the roadside, men who went to sleep never to wake. Every afternoon a few more collapsed along the way. And every evening a few more deserted, stealing off into the dusk. Tyrion had been half-tempted to go with them.

He had been upstairs, enjoying the comfort of a featherbed and the warmth of Shae’s body beside him, when his squire had woken him to say that a rider had arrived with dire news of Riverrun. So it had all been for nothing. The rush south, the endless forced marches, the bodies left beside the road . . . all for naught. Robb Stark had reached Riverrun days and days ago.

Tywin was days away from helping Jaime, he forced marched his host and still came way too late to help Jaime's host, but Roose actions only gained Robb a single day, if he had retreated back already would have acomplished his mission, instead he wasted more than a 1/3 of his army for nothing.

Roose went against the purpose of his command and seeked battle, he tired his men with the intention of surprising Tywin just to threw away the element of surprise, he waited for the Lannisters to form up, he abandoned the high ground, he threw the men of other houses into the mess and shoot them with arrows, and preserved his forces during all this.

[csuszka1948]

On 9/25/2022 at 10:49 PM, Arthur Peres said:

For me it's very clear that he botched the battle of the Green Fork on purpose.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think the author intended for it to read that way (but writing battles is not his strong suit).

"Hate to bother you but I have a question concerning Roose Bolton's betrayal. There are some that think that Roose had treachery in mind from the minute Robb left Winterfell. That his battle against Tywin was against Robb's wishes and meant to weaken the other Northern Houses. I believe he first thought of treachery after Stannis was defeated and Highgarden joined with the Lannisters. Could you clarify any of this or will is it something that is to be revealed later?

GRRM: Lord Bolton may well have all sorts of things in mind. Whether or not he would act on any of those thoughts is another matter. Roose is the sort of fellow who keeps his thoughts to himself. And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that."

Roose' attack managed to achieve the primary strategic objective - distracting Tywin (not that it ultimately proved necessary) - , and his losses weren't that grievous that he had to be punished.

 

Also, his move to take Harrenhal from Tywin's troops definitely helped Robb and hurt the Lannisters, Tywin only managed to survive because of the Tyrell alliance.

Edited June 24, 2023 by csuszka1948

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I don't think the author intended for it to read that way (but writing battles is not his strong suit).

"Hate to bother you but I have a question concerning Roose Bolton's betrayal. There are some that think that Roose had treachery in mind from the minute Robb left Winterfell. That his battle against Tywin was against Robb's wishes and meant to weaken the other Northern Houses. I believe he first thought of treachery after Stannis was defeated and Highgarden joined with the Lannisters. Could you clarify any of this or will is it something that is to be revealed later?

GRRM: Lord Bolton may well have all sorts of things in mind. Whether or not he would act on any of those thoughts is another matter. Roose is the sort of fellow who keeps his thoughts to himself. And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that."

Roose' attack managed to achieve the primary strategic objective - distracting Tywin (not that it ultimately proved necessary) - , and his losses weren't that grievous that he had to be punished.

 

Also, his move to take Harrenhal from Tywin's troops definitely helped Robb and hurt the Lannisters, Tywin only managed to survive because of the Tyrell alliance.

This

Also theres nothing wrong with  his tactics at all. He's a man known as cold and risk adverse so the night march gamble  almost works, brynden has just murdered a lot of tywins scouts so he may light on recon....however hes still  discovered by tywins  remaining scouts about a hours march away ,Knights can be ready for battle in under 15 mins and hes further off than that..the suprise had failed!!!

Now from there his men are  still in marching columns and tired, he can march onto tywins camp  but its probably  got walls and gates and virtualy tywins men will be up and ready soon, the horns are sounding to wake them all..its potential suicide. He can retreat back to his  previous position or option 3 is risk battle. Numbers wise tywin has around 20k with 7.5k cavalry and 12.5k foot, roose has around 17-18k with only  600 being cavalry.

The 3rd option will still distract tywin as robb ordered and theres still a realistic chance of roose ending the war here, he gets his men to form up and rest in a good position...on hills.

Hes vastly outnumbered in cavalry thus waiting on the hills is out...the northern cavalry will  clearly be driven off  in the opening charge  vs their westerlands counterparts... they cant hold vs tywins cavalry at like 10:1 numbers! then unsupported by cavalry the blocks of  men would be peppered with arrows and cavalry charges to be methodicaly exterminated.

He instead chooses to take advantage of his armys strength which is in  foot numbers. They charge downhill which backed by their superior  numbers and momentum gives them a good chance of breaking tywins foot before their cavalry loses and is forced to flee.

The battle however as all battles never goes exactly as planned , ser gregor somehow inhumanly shatters a spear wall all by himself and tyrions agressive clansmen pour into the gap he  makes .....roose as we know cold bloodedly has his archers fire at that end of the field as the clansmen are poorly armoured and he doesn tcare for blue on blue damage , a cruel calculated move but it doesnt alter things ..the northmen are driven back and then shatter under tywins reserve charge.

Roose reforms them at a causeway and moves onto he twins. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by astarkchoice