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Ukraine 20: We’re not bluffing and you can tell we aren’t by how we say we aren’t bluffing…


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One thing, which I haven't seen mentioned before. After West imposed sanctions on Russia, they were all like "well, we don't need you anyway. There are plenty of other countries (China, India etc.) who are just lining up to be our friends". Which was more than a bit odd, since culturally, historically and societaly - for the last few centuries at least Russia gravitated towards Europe, and nowhere else. Even nowdays, examples are numerous:

- when Russians emigrated, they moved to Europe, and not to Asia. At the moment, there are plenty of Russians trying to avoid being mobilized and most of them are trying to get into Finland. I doubt many are trying to get to e.g. China

- when rich Russians bought more houses for vacation or leisure, they bought them in European countries - not in Asian ones.

- when rich Russians wanted their kids to get best education, they sent them to European universities

- last year, Croatia was full of Russians who traveled two thousand (!) kilometers so they could get vaccinated with EU-approved vaccines which would enable them to travel across EU freely.

- etc.

At least that was the way things worked up until last few months. And now, with anything and anyone Russian basically being persona non grata in Europe, this process naturally stopped. Just one more way how Russia, by opting to invade Ukraine, basically shot itself in the foot and unfortunately went against its own best interest. 

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It's a complete mystery to me, how a train carrying dozens of tanks can mysteriously explode minutes after arriving at a train station 5km from the border with Ukrainian held territory.

 

 

I can only think it's... spontaneous combustion - surely even T-62s aren't that susceptible to stray cigarettes.


Wait, T-62... aren't they from approximately 1962? Is that... Is that the best they've got for the newly conscripted troops?

Edited by Which Tyler
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Yes, that seems about right. Even the Ukrainians have some machine guns from WWII or even earlier, but they'd at least customised and done things to them to make them more effective, and at least for close-range combat a 1940s MG is still going to be a deadly weapon.

Using WWI weapons is insane.

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My fear is that the conscripts are going to be used as the police and guard units in lpr and dpr to suppress the populace, which will in theory free up slightly better trained troops - but mostly will allow them to kill civilians faster. 

The referendum will allow those conscripts to be deployed to lpr and dpr of course. 

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

Are the Russians really arming their new conscripts with bolt action rifles?

 

May be. I listened to an interview with western legionary, he said he saw Maxim machine gun from WWI or II used by Ukrainian side. Said it was very good gun, super heavy and immobile, but suprisingly very accurate, users claimed they prefered it over newer post soviet heavy machine guns :dunno:

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2 minutes ago, broken one said:

May be. I listened to an interview with western legionary, he said he saw Maxim machine gun from WWI or II used by Ukrainian side. Said it was very good gun, super heavy and immobile, but suprisingly very accurate, users claimed they prefered it over newer post soviet heavy machine guns :dunno:

That’s quite a bit different from WWI era bolt action rifles.

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A bit of background on Russian callups.  Supposedly they are calling up reservists, who have previous military experience.  This sounds like more of an advantage than it is, because in most cases these men have never seen combat, many were barely trained the last time they were in the military, and often that was decades ago.  Russia does not do any maintenance training to make sure that reservists maintain the skills they learned as soldiers.  A man in his 40s who did a year as a conscript in the 90s is going to need extensive training to be even close to useful in Ukraine. 

But some videos on twitter indicate many of these troops are going to be given a 2 week "refresher" and then sent to the front.  With crappy equipment and no training, they are likely to accomplish very little other than die in large numbers. 

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But some videos on twitter indicate many of these troops are going to be given a 2 week "refresher" and then sent to the front.  With crappy equipment and no training, they are likely to accomplish very little other than die in large numbers. 

 

I would not worry. They are stiffening the ranks with convicts and anti-war protesters. No way this turns into a shit show.

Edited by Martell Spy
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All of the reasons why mass mobilization does not make sense for Putin look to be coming true.  This is a huge political risk with questionable, if any, military benefit.  If the military continues to crumble of the next 3 months (which I fully expect) then the situation will be much worse for Russia than it would have been without mobilization. 

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I'm thinking now of that twitter thread, I can't remember if it was here I saw it, pointing out that logistics in Russia are absurdly centralized. Everything flows through Moscow. Which means a huge number of the reservists are going to be flowing through Moscow. And a bunch of unhappy reservists in the Russian capital (St. Petersburg at the time) waiting to be sent to die in an unpopular war is one of the main reasons the Tsar was overthrown in 1917.

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