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Ukraine 20: We’re not bluffing and you can tell we aren’t by how we say we aren’t bluffing…


Ser Scot A Ellison

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We cannot 100% rule out that it was WW2 ammo that has remained undetected when the pipeline was built and just randomly went off now, there's still quite a bit of that in the Baltic Sea. But it is very, very  unlikely, which according to the seismic surveillance basically leaves only sabotage.

But the question is: how? Because as far as Russian marine activities go, we know nearly everything - NATO surveillance net in the Baltics is very tight. These pipelines are extremely robust, you cannot simply have diver put a small charge to it. Same problem with depth charges - the pipeline is at the bottom of the sea and the main explosive charge of any underwater explosion will go upwards. Finding out, how this pipeline was damaged will be extremely important.

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3 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

We cannot 100% rule out that it was WW2 ammo that has remained undetected when the pipeline was built and just randomly went off now, there's still quite a bit of that in the Baltic Sea. But it is very, very  unlikely, which according to the seismic surveillance basically leaves only sabotage.

But the question is: how? Because as far as Russian marine activities go, we know nearly everything - NATO surveillance net in the Baltics is very tight. These pipelines are extremely robust, you cannot simply have diver put a small charge to it. Same problem with depth charges - the pipeline is at the bottom of the sea and the main explosive charge of any underwater explosion will go upwards. Finding out, how this pipeline was damaged will be extremely important.

I suspect an underwater unmanned drone of some kind.

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5 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

We cannot 100% rule out that it was WW2 ammo that has remained undetected when the pipeline was built and

The two pipelines are not, near as I can tell, right next to each other. And a third pipeline was also damaged, as I recall? It would be very strange for multiple outdated munitions to all go up some distance from one another.

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24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I suspect an underwater unmanned drone of some kind.

That would be far beyond any Russian drone technology we've seen in this war so far.

One possible explanation I've seen circulating on Twitter is that is has to do with a Russian flotilla that was operating south of Gotland / west of  Oland in January this year and did include two ships ("Fortuna" and "Katun") that helped to building the pipeline. Maybe they put remote-controlled charges in place in preparation for their war? Although this would demonstrate a level of planning that was absent in almost every other aspect of the war and also this area is quite some distance to the damaged parts of the pipeline.

Others say it was the Americans, because they had opposed this pipeline from the beginning. 

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16 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Didn't Biden threaten to "bring an end to" the pipeline a few months back?

Or Poland did it with OPM Gluptak drone. Gluptak means "booby" (the bird, oc)

But seriously, I really do not think so. Some unidentified drones were spotted near Norwegian sea platforms like 3 days ago (at least thats what I ve read just before the pipe was damaged). I think Russians are spreading confusion.

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12 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Would sabotaging a European gas pipeline have much effect on US energy prices?

Yes or not, it could have effect on European prices and this is why Russia is suspect.

I guess from US POV it would be unnecessary to blow it up now, when it is getting to its end.

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34 minutes ago, broken one said:

Or Poland did it with OPM Gluptak drone. Gluptak means "booby" (the bird, oc)

But seriously, I really do not think so. Some unidentified drones were spotted near Norwegian sea platforms like 3 days ago (at least thats what I ve read just before the pipe was damaged). I think Russians are spreading confusion.

I have also heard the "Poland was it" theory (because they hated nordstream and got their very own pipeline on this exact day)  but I think it is more likely that the russians destroyed it themselves as a terror move (like: look we can destroy pipelines in the baltic see if we want to; implying also other pipelines)

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1 hour ago, Alarich II said:

That would be far beyond any Russian drone technology we've seen in this war so far.

Norway and the UK, I believe, have been suspecting the Russians of sabotaging underwater internet cables in the Atlantic for years now. So it's likely that they do have underwater drones that can at least get there. Whether or not they can cut gas pipelines is another question.

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I dunno, I'm still doubtful that it was the Russians, it doesn't make sense. The damage to the pipelines is likely permanent, and they could accomplish the same effect simply by cutting the flow at their end with a valve.

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7 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I dunno, I'm still doubtful that it was the Russians, it doesn't make sense. The damage to the pipelines is likely permanent, and they could accomplish the same effect simply by cutting the flow at their end with a valve.

Which is what they did to Nordstream 1 weeks ago. They kept Nordstream 2 pressurized, telling the German government "You can have your gas, just authorize Nordsteam 2." That bait is gone now.

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1 minute ago, Loge said:

Which is what they did to Nordstream 1 weeks ago. They kept Nordstream 2 pressurized, telling the German government "You can have your gas, just authorize Nordsteam 2." That bait is gone now.

Yeah, but I assume they will want to sell gas to Europe again at some point, and new pipelines are incredibly expensive and time-consuming to build.

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9 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I dunno, I'm still doubtful that it was the Russians, it doesn't make sense. The damage to the pipelines is likely permanent, and they could accomplish the same effect simply by cutting the flow at their end with a valve.

They could, but that would be the Russians choosing to do it deliberately. That isn't how putin likes to do things - time after time he does subterfuge and then denies any actual action. People are not thrown out of windows - they fall. People are not poisoned. Hacks are done by entirely other groups. 

Why would he do it this way? To punish Europe right before winter while being able to vaguely say he didn't do it. 

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Just now, Gorn said:

Yeah, but I assume they will want to sell gas to Europe again at some point, and new pipelines are incredibly expensive and time-consuming to build.

If they wanted to sell gas to Europe they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine. Russia might be able to sell at some point, but any putin led regime ain't gonna be doing it any time soon.

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Fury in Crimea because the Tatar community has been targeted for recruitment. The Crimean Tatars only make up ~15% of the population but they were an important group for Russia to win over in 2014, as they could have made life tougher for them. But the Tatars weren't enthused by the support they'd had from Kyiv whilst Crimea was part of Ukraine and did (genuinely, it appears) favour Russian rule. There was even a brief, minor honeymoon period where they got some more investment, although that tailed off pretty quickly and for the last couple of years it looks like they had buyer's remorse.

So them now being - heavily, it looks like - targeted for conscription has really not gone down well.

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

A big Russian TV talking head… has been drafted… wow… he freaks out and complains “there are ethnic minorities who can go…”

 

It's satire, those English subtitles aren't real :)

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1 hour ago, Gorn said:

I dunno, I'm still doubtful that it was the Russians, it doesn't make sense. The damage to the pipelines is likely permanent, and they could accomplish the same effect simply by cutting the flow at their end with a valve.

It would not have been exactly the same effect, since now some may say it's job of Poland or USA. Btw yesterday Polish-Danish Baltic Pipeline was open, so the coincidence is interesting.

Frankly speaking no scenario makes much sense to me. I wonder if we will ever find out.

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