Ukraine 20: We’re not bluffing and you can tell we aren’t by how we say we aren’t bluffing…

[Maithanet]

Let's not start counting the 25k prisoners just yet.  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Let's not start counting the 25k prisoners just yet.  

Fair point.

[TormundsWoman]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

Much as I'd like Putin to be heading for The Hague, it may make sense to offer him comfortable retirement, if he quits, in somewhere like Mar A Largo.

Sean, be reasonable, whatever did the US people do to you? Did we piss in your coffee?

If so I apologize, won’t do it again.

[The Anti-Targ]

I'd be more concerned that Russia may have a cunning plan. If Ukraine extends too far in a narrow strip then the advancing forces risk being cut off, encircled and slaughtered.

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'd be more concerned that Russia may have a cunning plan. If Ukraine extends too far in a narrow strip then the advancing forces risk being cut off, encircled and slaughtered.

No indication that the Russians are capable of this.  The Russian army looks like an inert, spent force, particularly in Kherson.

[Gorn]

17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'd be more concerned that Russia may have a cunning plan. If Ukraine extends too far in a narrow strip then the advancing forces risk being cut off, encircled and slaughtered.

I'd be more worried if they had actually demonstrated capability of conducting cunning plans in this war (OK, capture of Lysychansk was tactically sound, but little else).

For example, their current phase of the Donbas offensive seems to be "let's throw cannon fodder at the same impregnable defensive positions every day for two months".

[Arakasi]

I think the Russians are somewhat past the point of cunning plans. The Ukrainians are attacking along a fairly sizeable river so if the Russians want to attack over a river into the face of drone spotting for artillery well good luck I suppose.

[The Anti-Targ]

So a Baldrick seasons 2-4 cunning plan rather than a Baldrick season 1 cunning plan.*

 

*Blackadder for anyone unfortunate enough not to know.

[Which Tyler]

4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'm not saying it's deliberate, but the way Ukraine has extended its push down the Dnipro river gives the frontline a somewhat phallic look, as if to be telling Russia something.

As was the initial breakthrough en route to Kupyansk, and the initial breakthrough en route to Zarinche. It just the way things look when you break through, and get in behind, a defensive line.

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'd be more concerned that Russia may have a cunning plan. If Ukraine extends too far in a narrow strip then the advancing forces risk being cut off, encircled and slaughtered.

We were concerned about the same thing with the initial breakthrough en route to Kupyansk, and the initial breakthrough en route to Zarinche, but this time, their left flank is protected from counter attack by the Dnipro (albeit, with range from artillery on the far side). General Mud will be limiting the Russian capacity for counter attacking on the right flank, keeping such options to actual roads.

It's just a risk you take when you first break through a defensive line. At this point, we have to trust that the Ukrainians known what they're doing with further troops following into the breach.

[Kalbear]

Also, as a rule the Ukraine plan has not been particularly characterized by taking risks or overextending, or having particularly bad Intel. There's always a first time, of course, but I doubt seriously that they'll make a major blunder.

Note that they did do that in 2014 - they were unprepared for how to deal with mass fires and lost a major force early on. They've course corrected quite a bit since then.