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Ukraine 20: We’re not bluffing and you can tell we aren’t by how we say we aren’t bluffing…


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3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Allowing a foreign terrorist movement to carry out an attack on a country with which one is not at war, killing thousands, is about as clear an act of aggression as I can think of.

Sorry, how did Afghanistan ‘allow’ anything? First, no one even knew who was behind 9-11 until months after the attack. Second, it wasn’t even wholly planned in Afghanistan…even if you accept that that would somehow make Afghanistan guilty (which would be interesting considering that we know a lot of the planning happened within the US itself) it was planned all over the place, including Afghanistan but also the Sudan, Egypt, S.A., the U.S., etc. and we are not even sure where he was on 9-11. Third there is zero evidence that the Taliban knew anything about 9-11 before anyone else. This is a non-argument. 

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10 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Sorry, but...

What has relitigating 9/11 and it's fall-out got to do with Ukraine?

Isn't there another thread where this would be relevant?

 

"Not to derail" was back on page 2, do we really need to keep the derail up for 8 pages and counting? Despite another thread explicitly set up to deal with the derail?

Or does "derail" mean something new these days, and I'm just behind the ttimes I'm not the thread police, but it seems 75% of this thread is off topic, and as someone interested in the actual topic, it's frustrating as hell.

Would it be better if, instead of a thread for the derail, we started a new threa for the war in Ukraine, and allowed the derail to continue uninterrupted by pesky On-Topic discussion?

I agree. If people have directly relevant to topic points to make involving Afghanistan, Iraq etc. that's fine but discussion of whether those conflicts were in themselves justified isn't directly relevant. There is, so far as I know, no evidence that Putin has justified the war in Ukraine by reference to the Iraq war and while people are free to assume that this played a part (or not) there seems no point to further discussing whether that assumption is justified. Move on. 

Edited by mormont
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15 minutes ago, mormont said:

 There is, so far as I know, no evidence that Putin has justified the war in Ukraine by reference to the Iraq war and while people are free to assume that this played a part (or not) there seems no point to further discussing whether that assumption is justified. Move on. 

Maybe Putin hasnt uttered those words in public, but his mouthpieces have.

The foreign minister also accused the U.S. of not following international law.

“In Iraq … they saw a threat to their American security, they bombed it. And when neo-Nazis and ultra-radicals are being grown right on our borders …we are not allowed to react to this threat on our borders,” Lavrov said.  

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Just now, Relic said:

Maybe Putin hasnt uttered those words in public, but his mouthpieces have.

The foreign minister also accused the U.S. of not following international law.

“In Iraq … they saw a threat to their American security, they bombed it. And when neo-Nazis and ultra-radicals are being grown right on our borders …we are not allowed to react to this threat on our borders,” Lavrov said.  

And that is… and always will be the Tu Quoque fallacy.  “America got to break international law… why can’t we???”  Its like a serial killer claiming they can’t be punished because the Zodiac Killer has never been caught.

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

And that is… and always will be the Tu Quoque fallacy.  “America got to break international law… why can’t we???”  Its like a serial killer claiming they can’t be punished because the Zodiac Killer has never been caught.

Well, no, it’s a serial killer claiming they can’t be punished because of known police/prosecutor serial killers leading his prosecution. 

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1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

Well, no, it’s a serial killer claiming they can’t be punished because of known police/prosecutor serial killers leading his prosecution. 

What perfect nation has unstained hands and the resources to investigate war crimes?  

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6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What perfect nation has unstained hands and the resources to investigate war crimes?  

There are millions of degrees between unstained hands and arguably the most prolific superpower killer of foreign civilians in modern times. 
 

edit: but do you see, Scot, that it’s not the clear TQ you are making it out to be? And to be clear, my absolute position is that both serial killers should be punished. It’s pretty convenient for one of the serial killers to be all ‘oh, well, this is not an ideal world, so failing that we should…’ etc. 

Edited by James Arryn
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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What perfect nation has unstained hands and the resources to investigate war crimes?  

Pretty sure we'd be able to name a whole bunch of nations, nations whose only involvement in modern warfare came after GWB blackmailed almost the entire western world into getting involved in his bullshit War On Terror.

 

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One unfortunate implication of the illegal referendums is that Russia is likely to start drafting every man in Kherson and Zaporyzhia, just as they've done in dnr/lnr.  Those men are likely to surrender and sabotage at every opportunity, but nonetheless, it is unfortunate that many will undoubtedly be casualties in this war.

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5 minutes ago, lacuna said:

Hmmmmmmm... Far be it from me to cast aspersions, but...

Best speculation I've seen is that the idea that the tap might be turned back on with immediate effect if there were, say, a regime change in Russia is something that spooks Putin as a possible encouragement to others to push him out of power, and so he himself has sabotaged it so that that idea can't be used as a carrot by Europe to anti-Putin factions that may be forming in Russia.

 

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Lyman now appears to be encircled on three sides. The Ukrainians were hoping for a faster breakthrough but the Russians have managed to reinforce the position.

Certainly looks that way, with Ridkodub and Nove falling whilst Novomykhalivka and Zelena Dolyna are being contested.
For the time being, it looks like the road East to Zarichne (or the smaller track to Yampil, which can then only lead to Zarichne) is the only route in or out for supplies / retreat.

 

I'm seeing unconfirmed reports that Drobysheve has been completely enveloped, with troops moving on to start hitting Stavky.
If they get that, then moving along that route to Zarichne looks... an unpleasant prospect.

Equally, if they can take and secure Stavky, then all of Lyman, Drobysheve, Derylove, Shandryholove, Serednje and Zelena Dolyna are all surrounded as well; with the only route out being that crap shoot from Lyman to Zarichne.

Edited by Which Tyler
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31 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

One unfortunate implication of the illegal referendums is that Russia is likely to start drafting every man in Kherson and Zaporyzhia, just as they've done in dnr/lnr.  Those men are likely to surrender and sabotage at every opportunity, but nonetheless, it is unfortunate that many will undoubtedly be casualties in this war.

Considering that no country besides maybe North Korea will recognize the referendum, drafting people from occupied regions into your army is another break of the Geneva Conventions. 

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10 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

Considering that no country besides maybe North Korea will recognize the referendum, drafting people from occupied regions into your army is another break of the Geneva Conventions. 

The Russian dictator doesn’t seem to care.  I think he’s pissed he’s not allowed to treat Ukraine like a “rogue province” the way China treats Taiwan.

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Looks like Ukraine have pushed out from their beachhead North of the SD at Siversk

Looks like Dibrova and Torske are under attack - some reports have them taken, some contested, some as "just" under attack.

That's the route East from Zarichne under severe threat.

 


If all true, and successful, that's a huge land grab over the last 2-3 days

Edited by Which Tyler
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9 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Looks like Ukraine have pushed out from their beachhead North of the SD at Siversk

Looks like Dibrova and Torske are under attack - some reports have them taken, some contested, some as "just" under attack.

That's the route East from Zarichne under severe threat.

 


If all true, and successful, that's a huge land grab over the last 2-3 days

Doesn’t that mean the bag around Lyman has closed?

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Doesn’t that mean the bag around Lyman has closed?

If true, and successful, then yes; whilst adding Yampil, Zarichne and Torske.


ETA: Nope, sorry, there's still a small-looking road out North from Zarichne to the East of the Zherebets River.

I can only see that road being used for the purposes of running away though - way too much risk to add further supplies when that's you're only route in or out

Edited by Which Tyler
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