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US Politics: Oh Dearie, Dearie me.


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16 minutes ago, Zorral said:

think the biggest challenge for him in that regard, is that he's going to have to swallow some of his pride, in the courtroom, at least, to make that argument, effectively," he said. "And that's not something I'm sure he will be able to stomach."

This said about the man who when making the video to tell the J6 rioters to go home was unable to say the simple phrase “the election is over “.

 Not happening. 

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@Zorral

Fraud is a difficult cause of action because it has 9 elements.  If the Plaintiff fails to prove any of the 9 elements the cause of action fails.  Believe it or not “everyone knew Trump lies” is a valid defense to Fraud because the person defrauded had to be unaware the person defrauding them was defrauding them:

https://www.robertdmitchell.com/common-law-fraud

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I don't think anyone should be charged with fraud against big banks, because big banks should be able to do due diligence to check the veracity of statements made on loan applications that if they miss people's lies it's on them and courts' time should not be wasted. Let these people's credit records reflect the fact they are unreliable.

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53 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

So... he could just say, Everybody does it, everybody knew I did it - and that's it?

The Plaintiff, in a fraud case, bears the burden of proving “everybody… didn’t know it”.  That’s why fraud is a very hard case to make and rarely asserted.

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The thing about bashing on states that happen to have shitty people in charge or the most cruel policies is that there are plenty of people living there who do not want those those things.

Even in the most extremely "blue" or "red" states you have like 30%-40% of the population who don't support assholes like DeSantis or Abbott.  I know most of this stuff is just joking around but it was pretty sad to see so many people during the pandemic* saying stuff like "well if Texas doesn't want the vaccines fuck em", "or DeSantis forgot to order the vaccines hahahhaa fuck Florida", same with abortion --"just move and let these states go to hell".  Most people can't just move overnight or leave behind their families and communities to shop around for the right Little Laboratory of Democracy.

Eta2: and we're still in a pandemic, bte

Edited by Larry of the Lake
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Breaking Down New York’s Long-Awaited Fraud Lawsuit Against Donald Trump
Letitia James, the New York attorney general, claims that the Trump Organization illegally obtained hundreds of millions of dollars by systematically exaggerating the value of its properties. 

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/breaking-down-new-yorks-long-awaited-fraud-lawsuit-against-donald-trump

The key word here is illegality.

Quote

James, the New York attorney general and a longtime political antagonist of the former President, didn’t mince words. “Trump falsely inflated his net worth by billions of dollars to unjustly enrich himself and cheat the system,” James said, in a statement. “In fact, the very foundation of his purported net worth is rooted in incredible fraud and illegality.” ....

Lying to the IRS is a crime.

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... The complaint also alleges that, in 2016, the Trump Organization misled an outside appraiser that prepared a valuation of the Seven Springs property, which it then submitted to the Internal Revenue Service in support of an application for a conservation easement “that ultimately, and fraudulently, reduced Mr. Trump’s tax liability by more than $3.5 million.” ....

Fraud though perhaps more difficult to prove, tends to slip into criminal acts.

Quote

 

.... To be sure, it isn’t a crime to stand on Fifth Avenue and declare that you are a billionaire. And it has long been reported that Trump grossly inflated the value of his assets to exaggerate his net worth. In a 2018 Washington Post article, Jonathan Greenberg, a former reporter for the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans, recalled how, as far back as 1984, an official from the Trump Organization representing himself as “John Barron” called him up and claimed that Trump owned far more valuable real estate than the magazine had given him credit for. (Trump, whom Greenberg believes made the calls himself, wanted to be higher on the rich list.)

Where Trump and his businesses crossed the legal line, the complaint alleges, was in producing false financial statements that grossly inflated his net worth to “induce banks to lend money to the Trump Organization on more favorable terms than would otherwise have been available to the company, to satisfy continuing loan covenants, and to induce insurers to provide insurance coverage for higher limits and at lower premiums.” The complaint identifies numerous loans and insurance policies that it said were granted at least partly on the basis of claims Trump made about his wealth in a “Statement of Financial Condition”—a list of his assets and liabilities that the Trump Organization produced annually. ....

 

The article also lays out why it's quite possible that it stays 'just fraud' and 'doesn't really matter.'

Edited by Zorral
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Sadly, the next episode of the Jan6 hearings will probably be the last one. (Aside from a possible final hearing with recommendations etc) I'll miss the show! Also, they likely won't have Ginni Thomas' or Gingrich's testimonies until then. And the final report may not be finished until after the midterms.

A Chuck Todd video, but strangely he says, like, reasonable stuff.

 

Edited by Mindwalker
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I just turned the TV on this morning, and CBS had its current projections for the House (223-212), which lines up well with what 538 has (225-210). I'm not sure I buy that will be the final number, as the fears of a real recession have grown significantly since late last week, and even though these numbers above are based primarily because women consider abortion one of the top issues, the economy isnt far behind.

Cant claim I know enough about economics, but I do know there were quite a few arguments against the Fed being so aggressive in its latest round of interest rate hikes.

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Meadows texts reveal direct White House communications with pro-Trump operative behind plans to seize voting machines

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/politics/meadows-texts-phil-waldron-seize-voting-machines-election-fraud/index.html

Quote

 

Washington (CNN)As allies of then-President Donald Trump made a final push to overturn the election in late-December 2020, one of the key operatives behind the effort briefed then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows about his attempts to gain access to voting systems in key battleground states, starting with Arizona and Georgia, according to text messages obtained by CNN.

Phil Waldron, an early proponent of various election-related conspiracy theories, texted Meadows on December 23 that an Arizona judge had dismissed a lawsuit filed by friendly GOP lawmakers there. The suit demanded state election officials hand over voting machines and other election equipment, as part of the hunt for evidence to support Trump's baseless claims of voter fraud.


In relaying the news to Meadows, Waldron said the decision would allow opponents to engage in "delay tactics" preventing Waldron and his associates from immediately accessing machines. Waldron also characterized Arizona as "our lead domino we were counting on to start the cascade," referring to similar efforts in other states like Georgia.
"Pathetic," Meadows responded.

 

 

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2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I just turned the TV on this morning, and CBS had its current projections for the House (223-212), which lines up well with what 538 has (225-210). I'm not sure I buy that will be the final number, as the fears of a real recession have grown significantly since late last week, and even though these numbers above are based primarily because women consider abortion one of the top issues, the economy isnt far behind.

Cant claim I know enough about economics, but I do know there were quite a few arguments against the Fed being so aggressive in its latest round of interest rate hikes.

With the election now only five weeks away (and early voting starting soon in many places) I am not sure there is enough time for any recession to get into people's consciousness before the election. The average person's negative perception of the economy will depend more on their perceptions of inflation, especially gas prices, and their sense of their own ability to get ahead in our present economic system. I heard a pollster a few weeks ago saying that when people are asked specific questions about the economy, after the recent inflation the high cost of housing is what they use as their explanation for why they think the economy is "bad" despite low unemployment. The issue of astronomical rents making it difficult for young families in many parts of the country to save enough money to buy a house like previous generations did was already a problem before the recent inflation. 

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That may be the case for a 'slow burn' recession, but in my head I was thinking of the Lehman Brothers crash in 2008 which had a direct impact on the election and pretty much solidified Obama's lead over McCain. In fact, the reason I was thinking about it was because it happened roughly in the same time period (early to mid September IIRC). This morning the news was hardly better with the strengthening US dollar which apparently can have a chilling effect on global trade and stocks of multinational companies in the US. Anyway..time will tell.

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

That may be the case for a 'slow burn' recession, but in my head I was thinking of the Lehman Brothers crash in 2008 which had a direct impact on the election and pretty much solidified Obama's lead over McCain. In fact, the reason I was thinking about it was because it happened roughly in the same time period (early to mid September IIRC). This morning the news was hardly better with the strengthening US dollar which apparently can have a chilling effect on global trade and stocks of multinational companies in the US. Anyway..time will tell.

But I don't think the news you mentioned is anywhere near as bad as the 2008 crash. Are many financial experts predicting the possibility of such a thing? 

The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced on September 15, so we are already 11 days past that anniversary this year.

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6 minutes ago, Ormond said:

But I don't think the news you mentioned is anywhere near as bad as the 2008 crash. Are many financial experts predicting the possibility of such a thing? 

The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced on September 15, so we are already 11 days past that anniversary this year.

FWIW I think this has the potential to be quite a bit worse, globally. 

Supply lines are still disrupted/recovering from Covid. Russian war against Ukraine created problems with the food supply (Ukraine being a grain exporter), and with the (neccessary) sanctions on Russia driving up energy prices. Throw the good old capitalist greed is good mantra. Personally, I think the question is when things will blow up, not if. 

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14 minutes ago, Ormond said:

But I don't think the news you mentioned is anywhere near as bad as the 2008 crash. Are many financial experts predicting the possibility of such a thing? 

The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced on September 15, so we are already 11 days past that anniversary this year.

There are some that are predicting a worse crash, yes. It's not as common but it is out there. In particular there are worries about the stability of the Chinese market that could cause some very unforeseen leverage issues which could be very, very bad. That interest rates and inflation are up there means that unlike 2008 it's harder to recover by using more money right away to just make the world more liquid.

The other issue is that in 2008 the world was largely cooperative and could be relied on to work together to mitigate the recession. That is absolutely not the case. China could be seen then as an economic partner, and Russia was working closely with Europe. Neither are remotely true now, and that adds even more risk. 

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Oh right, forgot about the Chinese.

They have given out loans left and right for infrastructure projects, mainly for their silk road 2.0 project. A lot of those debts look like a bigger than 50% chance of default (quite bit of that is down to Covid hitting the global economies), or need serious restructuring by Chinese banks. The total number of Chinese loans we are talking about is close to 1 trilion. 

And that'd be a huge problem, for obvious reasons, as China's domestic economy is also being hit due to their zero covid strategy.

 

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger
Edit: Spiegel Link adeed (yes, English language)
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Not to mention China's built a lot of highways to nowhere, and financed infrastructure projects and factories that have no infrastructure in Africa.  A lot of it was really bribes to the klepto rulers who thanked them for the loans and banked them in their own overseas accounts.  We saw some of those last when in Angola, way back in the day of what? 2012 or somewhere around then?

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Not sure i get the whining over the interest rate hikes by a few people on the networks. Its like they want to poke at the guys trying to plug the leaks in the ship hull.

Inflation is still clearly, fiercely, entrenched. We can either slow down the price increases or sink to the bottom of the sea. I prefer not to criticize the guy thats trying to save the ship.

I remember economist pointing out that it could lead to inflation way back when Trump pushed through another tax cut while we were already quantitatively easing and buying up bonds under Trump. This is Trumps inflation we are fighting!

Edited by DireWolfSpirit
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