The winds of winter predictions 2.0

[Nevets]

Things I firmly believe about the next book.  (As in, I would happily take an even money bet on them).

Jon is not dead, only badly injured and comatose for a while.

Davos and Rickon will not make it south of the Wall prior to Davos's last chapter.  Maybe not even then.

Bran will leave the cave.

Sansa will bring about Littlefinger's downfall.

Brienne survives Stoneheart.

Jaime dies during the book.

Cersei and Margaery both win their trials.

Arya leaves the FM and returns to Westeros.

Daenerys makes it at least to the eastern shore of the Narrow Sea.

Daenerys, Tyrion, Sansa, Arya, and Bran are all alive at the end of TWOW.

[Kyll.Ing.]

9 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Daenerys- Total chapters- 17

And with that, you reach 225. Three times as long as the other books and then some. It's reasonable that TWoW will be a bit longer than the others, but completely off-the-rails bonkers to believe for half a second it will be this much longer.

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

And with that, you reach 225. Three times as long as the other books and then some. It's reasonable that TWoW will be a bit longer than the others, but completely off-the-rails bonkers to believe for half a second it will be this much longer.

I think the OP is unfamiliar with how much can fit into a chapter.  Most of the predictions could probably fit into about half the number listed.  Stark kids are on the low side though.  I don't think she likes them much.  

And, unfortunately, the chapter counts aren't the only bonkers thing.  Many of the predictions seem highly unlikely, to say the least.  I don't mind out of the box predictions; I go there myself sometimes.  But some of the predictions don't even recognize there is a box.  They're completely antithetical to the story itself.

[Daenerysthegreat]

 

 

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

Stark kids are on the low side though.  I don't think she likes them much.  

 

Bran has 10 chapters. Sansa has 7, while arya is the lowest with 5(honestly how much can one show about braavos)

Small edit: You’re half right, Sansa has way few chapters to cover the vale. I think she might have 17, just like Dany because she’s the only pov in the vale

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

But some of the predictions don't even recognize there is a box.  They're completely antithetical to the story itself.

Tell me which ones. 
 

 

[Kyll.Ing.]

On 9/30/2022 at 12:04 PM, Daenerysthegreat said:

Bran has 10 chapters. Sansa has 7, while arya is the lowest with 5(honestly how much can one show about braavos)

Small edit: You’re half right, Sansa has way few chapters to cover the vale. I think she might have 17, just like Dany because she’s the only pov in the vale

235 now. The rest of the books put together add up to 338. You're more than two-thirds of the way there. 

Do you really not see how unrealistic that would be?

[sifth]

I rather enjoy all of your fan theories. I wonder how many will be right, lol

[Back in Black-Snow]

17 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

235 now. The rest of the books put together add up to 383. You're quite close to two-thirds of the way there. 

Do you really not see how unrealistic that would be?

More than likely this person is high or drunk and a stroke of "brilliance" no one else sees came to them, and they just can't figure out why no one else sees it.

Not going to lie, I have done it too. Lol

[Daenerysthegreat]

8 hours ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

235 now. The rest of the books put together add up to 383. You're quite close to two-thirds of the way there. 

Do you really not see how unrealistic that would be?

I can see that. But I still can’t do anything since the story itself is so big. 

[Nevets]

14 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

 

 

 

Bran has 10 chapters. Sansa has 7, while arya is the lowest with 5(honestly how much can one show about braavos)

Small edit: You’re half right, Sansa has way few chapters to cover the vale. I think she might have 17, just like Dany because she’s the only pov in the vale

Tell me which ones. 
 

 

"The only thing worth writing about is the human heart in conflict with itself" - George R.R. Martin, quoting American author William Faulkner.

It's about the characters; their strengths, flaws, desires, fears, and how these affect their actions - and those of others.

Also, Martin isn't in the habit of killing off major characters without a compelling reason, like creating a void or vacuum, or otherwise affecting many characters' actions.  And he's not going to kill a POV to simply hand off the story to someone new.

Now to my critique.

Vale: No mention of Sansa.  She's the reason we're in the Vale.  Any story is about her.  If Harry dies, it will be because it has a direct affect on her story.  Also, Littlefinger has been set up as her antagonist.  His death or downfall will be her doing.  Sansa is a main character; the others there are support.

Kings Landing: Tyrell army is going nowhere until Margaery is secure, especially if there are serious tensions.  Lannister army doesn't really exist.  Jaime left with under 1000, and left most of that at Riverrun or with Prester.

Oldtown: Euron has no reason to be interested in Highgarden.  Kings Landing or Daenerys, yes.  Highgarden, no.  Squids do badly on land.  I think he remembers that much.    Martin sent Sam to Oldtown because he needed him there.  He also built up his story.  He isn't dying soon, and certainly for no useful story purpose.  I like Sarella, but she isn't and won't be a main character.

Arya: She isn't staying in Braavos.  She and the FM are poorly suited for each other.  In any event, there isn't enough for her to do there.  A return to Westeros is most likely, but as a main character, it's a safe bet that Martin will give her something to do wherever she goes.

Riverlands: Jaime is not going to participate in a massacre, especially of Lannisters.  He's too much a Lannister for that.  RW2 may well occur, but it will be without Jaime.

Second sack: Oh, dear.  Where are these armies coming from?  Thin air.  Except for the Tyrells and Tarly, everyone has mostly been demobilized.  Dorne I don't think ever mobilized in the first place.  I see little likelihood of this.  Also, Aegon is a lie Dany will slay.  He needs to be around long enough for that.

North: The Northerners don't have much of an army, and are unlikely to head south.  I expect the Others to keep most of them at home.  I doubt Stannis has the supplies or physical strength to march south.  By the way, Jon may or may not stay a POV, but he will remain a major force.

Essos: Tyrion isn't dying soon.  George spent the last half of his ADWD arc setting up the next leg of his story.  Penny, Jorah, slavery, etc.  I don't like it myself, but it is what it is.  And Dany is going the wrong direction.  If she's not headed for Westeros by the end of the book, then what is the point of her story?

That's all I can think of for now.  If you focus on the characters, especially the main ones, and what their goals are, it helps.  And killing off main characters for no compelling storytelling purpose isn't Martin's style either.

[Daenerysthegreat]

28 minutes ago, Nevets said:

George spent the last half of his ADWD arc setting up the next leg of his story.  Penny, Jorah, slavery, etc. 

Didn’t he set up tyrions death, that’s what it feels like.

28 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Dorne I don't think ever mobilized in the first place. 

There is a host in the boneway under the command of Lord Yronwood. I didn’t make them out of thin air. 
 

 

29 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Jaime left with under 1000, and left most of that at Riverrun or with Prester.

The army was larger than that.

One needs to kill off main characters after their purpose in the story is done.

31 minutes ago, Nevets said:

  I doubt Stannis has the supplies or physical strength to march south

But the northern stark loving lords do

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I can see that. But I still can’t do anything since the story itself is so big. 

You seem to wildly overestimate how many chapters are needed for a particular story or character.  The most chapters any character has had in one book is 15; Eddard in the first book, and Tyrion in the second.  And they were the most important characters in those books.  I doubt anyone in TWOW will get more than 10, especially if it is one volume.  If two volumes, someone might get 12 or so.

The fact is, you can adequately cover most of your scenarios with half the number of chapters listed.  Still probably too many, but at least not utterly ridiculous.  At this point you've got more than the first three books combined, or the equivalent of three ADWDs.  That's not going to work. 

[Kyll.Ing.]

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

At this point you've got more than the first three books combined, or the equivalent of three ADWDs.

Or more than any three of the other books combined. AGoT, ASoS, and ADwD are the longest books so far in terms of chapters, and together they add up to 228. 231 if you include the prologues. I redid my earlier count, and found that 235 chapters would be the equivalent of 70% of the chapters in the series so far.

[Daenerysthegreat]

12 hours ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

Or more than any three of the other books combined. AGoT, ASoS, and ADwD are the longest books so far in terms of chapters, and together they add up to 228. 231 if you include the prologues. I redid my earlier count, and found that 235 chapters would be the equivalent of 70% of the chapters in the series so far

Again it’s not my fault the story is big and has lots of portions to cover. 

[alienarea]

The story ends with A Dance with Dragons and The Winds of Winter will not be released.

[Kyll.Ing.]

8 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Again it’s not my fault the story is big and has lots of portions to cover. 

The length of your prediction is entirely on you. You decide how much you think the story will progress and how much time you want to do it in. As @Nevets said, you're giving multiple characters way more chapters than any character has ever had in previous books. You progress the story of key characters all the way to their death when there's one more book left after this. Basically, you're stretching things way beyond the point of reasonable.

[Daenerysthegreat]

42 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

You progress the story of key characters all the way to their death when there's one more book left after this

Exactly there’s just one more book left and the material is vast.

As for the the deaths of ‘key’ characters, what would you have the story be like? Kill the unpopular ones, like Sansa, brienne, mel, areo hotah etc and give thick plot armour to the rest, especially the fan favourites? Even daenerys, who I believe to be one of my favourite characters, has no plot armour and may die in the final book.

[Nevets]

10 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

 

As for the the deaths of ‘key’ characters, what would you have the story be like? Kill the unpopular ones, like Sansa, brienne, mel, areo hotah etc and give thick plot armour to the rest, especially the fan favourites? Even daenerys, who I believe to be one of my favourite characters, has no plot armour and may die in the final book.

Actually, for the time being Daenerys has plot armor that is well-nigh impenetrable.  Until she arrives in Westeros and starts affecting events there, she isn't going anywhere.  Otherwise, what's the point of her story?  The same thing is true with the Stark kids.  Until they finish their training and actually use it to some effect, they are safe.  They may suffer, but they won't die.  Not yet, at least.

[Nevets]

10 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Exactly there’s just one more book left and the material is vast.

As for the the deaths of ‘key’ characters, what would you have the story be like? Kill the unpopular ones, like Sansa, brienne, mel, areo hotah etc and give thick plot armour to the rest, especially the fan favourites? Even daenerys, who I believe to be one of my favourite characters, has no plot armour and may die in the final book.

You seem to be massively overestimating the amount of material needed to cover any particular story.  For example, for The two queens, you have 23 chapters.  Looking at the bullet points and how much material would be needed to cover them, 12 would do it quite easily. For The South and road to kings Landing, you have 56 (!!!).  It can be done in around 15, 20 at most.

Suggested chapter counts:

Two queens: 12 (originally 23)

Vale: 7 (7)

South and road to KL: 20 (56)

The North: 12 (26)

The Second Sack: 11 (28)

Braavos: 5 (5)

Meereen: 13 (30)

Beyond the Wall: 12 (20)

Stoneheart: 9 (18)

Daenerys: 11 (17)

Total: 112 (230)

If anything, I tried to overestimate the number required.  Still on the high side, but doable in two volumes, which I am beginning to suspect may be the case.

 

 

[Daenerysthegreat]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

Two queens: 12 (originally 23)

Vale: 7 (7)

South and road to KL: 20 (56)

The North: 12 (26)

The Second Sack: 11 (28)

Braavos: 5 (5)

Meereen: 13 (30)

Beyond the Wall: 12 (20)

Stoneheart: 9 (18)

Daenerys: 11 (17)

Total: 112 (230)

Finally some useful suggestion instead of the usual.

I’d like to clarify, I imagined  some fairy short chapters, like 3-4 pages long.

i disagree a bit with the north and south parts, but the rest are totally fine. 
As long as these are the main outcomes everything is fine, the chapters are just a number.

: 1) Rickon and shireen end up king and queen. 
2) Dany ends the book in asshai

3) Aegon, Jaime, Theon, Tyrion, Davos, Stannis, Elia, Samwell, Tommen, Myrcella(there is one more I think) are killed/murdered

[Nevets]

20 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Finally some useful suggestion instead of the usual.

I’d like to clarify, I imagined  some fairy short chapters, like 3-4 pages long.

i disagree a bit with the north and south parts, but the rest are totally fine. 
As long as these are the main outcomes everything is fine, the chapters are just a number.

: 1) Rickon and shireen end up king and queen. 
2) Dany ends the book in asshai

3) Aegon, Jaime, Theon, Tyrion, Davos, Stannis, Elia, Samwell, Tommen, Myrcella(there is one more I think) are killed/murdered

No book has chapters that short.  The first one's chapters averaged 9 pages, with the shortest at 5-6 pages.  And they are getting longer.  ADWD has few if any below 10 pages; the average is 13. (word count per page is similar).

I have to disagree on the main outcomes.  I think Shireen gets burned (practically a given, actually) and Rickon has no claim.  Plus they would need a regency, and with all the chaos going on, nobody is going to want that.

I see no reason for Dany to go to Asshai.  It's the wrong direction, and I don't see what's necessary about it.

Not sure about the deaths.  I doubt Sam and Tyrion die, and Aegon and Stannis won't die until confronted by Daenerys, as per her vision.  I agree on Jaime, but I'm probably about the only one.