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The winds of winter predictions 2.0


Daenerysthegreat

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1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I see no reason for Dany to go to Asshai. 

Quaithe said she will find truth in asshai, she’s been yelling that thingfot 3 books. Dany  ends up in asshai to find the truth, I think about the others, simultaneously with Mel finding the truth beyond the wall.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

think Shireen gets burned (practically a given, actually) and Rickon has no claim.  Plus they would need a regency, and with all the chaos going on, nobody is going to want that.

Well that’s because I killed stannis, aegon and Tommen and myrcella. The shireen- rickon marriage makes sense to me, as does her survival. It also proves a interesting conclusion thematically, the heroes, even the stern unpopular ones( stannis), along with what many believed to be an anti hero(aegon) destined to be killed by a more popular character, are dead, and the so called winners are children married to each other, ruling under a regency.

The regency will probably be under a council, since most of the army is northern and will want a day in the affairs, and selyse worships a false god or so.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Aegon and Stannis won't die until confronted by Daenerys,

I get aegon, people want Dany to slay his lie, but what does stannis have to do with it?

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2 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

1) Rickon and shireen end up king and queen. 
2) Dany ends the book in asshai

3) Aegon, Jaime, Theon, Tyrion, Davos, Stannis, Elia, Samwell, Tommen, Myrcella(there is one more I think) are killed/murdered

Well what does everyone think @The Bard of Banefort @Lord Varys @Jaenara Belarys @Odej  @Craving Peaches @Rondo @Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 @The Last Wolf

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I think it would be cool to see Asshai but unless Daenerys is planning to complete the first circumnavigation I don't think we will go there because she would just be going further away from where all the action is. If the series is supposed to be concluded in two more books then realistically Daenerys has to land on the shores of Westeros or be very close by the end of WoW at the very latest.

I agree Stannis will be killed. I don't think he's got long left. Shireen will probably be burned as well. But I think Aegon will stick around so there is conflict between him and Daenerys.

Poor Tommen will probably die.

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2 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Sorry, but for the point about Dany in Asshai...first off, IIRC, GRRM has said that we won be going to Asshai, and second, why just delay Dany's story even more? Even on dragonback, the journey will still be a long one, and she's already spend too much time away. 

Rickon and Shireen, I feel like Shireen will be dead at the end of the series. 

All the deaths will cut down on POVs and make stuff more efficient, but you'll still need to come up with a reasonable end for all of these characters. There's not much of a point in introducing Aegon if you don't have him show down with Dany, steel chairs and all. 

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On 9/29/2022 at 4:56 PM, Nevets said:

Things I firmly believe about the next book.  (As in, I would happily take an even money bet on them).

Jon is not dead, only badly injured and comatose for a while.

Davos and Rickon will not make it south of the Wall prior to Davos's last chapter.  Maybe not even then.

Bran will leave the cave.

Sansa will bring about Littlefinger's downfall.

Brienne survives Stoneheart.

Jaime dies during the book.

Cersei and Margaery both win their trials.

Arya leaves the FM and returns to Westeros.

Daenerys makes it at least to the eastern shore of the Narrow Sea.

Daenerys, Tyrion, Sansa, Arya, and Bran are all alive at the end of TWOW.

I'm roughly on board with the gist of these. Here are mine:

1. Arya is on a boat to westeros in the first 1/4 of wow (i predict in her next chapter following the mercy chapter), in westeros by the mid-point. then she will first reunite with Nymeria and her pack. after that the options are joining Sansa in the Vale, joining LS in the riverlands for some Frey revenge, or heading north to join Rickon or Jon. my guess is she and the wolves join LS and the next move is to the twins for revenge on the freys, with Jaime's assistance.

2. Stannis wins the battle of the ice as many have predicted: he lures the freys onto the ice, the manderly forces switch sides and attack the freys from the rear, preventing any attempt to retreat, and the karstark betrayal does not materialize as expected. the frey contingent is wiped out and stannis' forces are strengthened substantially.

3. Stannis and northerners retake winterfell. Roose dies, probably at Ramsay's hand but maybe in battle or is executed by Stannis/Rickon after Winterfell is retaken. Ramsay escapes to the dreadfort or remains at large until sometime in the middle of DOS, when there is some kind of showdown with the now reunited starks, probably with Jon.

4. I'm open to the idea that Stannis retakes winterfell by trickery, with karstark and manderly fighters as supporting characters and his own fighters dressed in frey colors etc. i also think this is the genesis for ramsay's assertion in the letter to Jon that stannis is dead; at the moment he writes it, he believes it, but is mistaken.

5. ramsay wrote the pink letter, and believes its contents to be true at the time of writing it. the motive is to assert his dominance over the north and demand the NW and jon's submission, and force them to send fArya and Theon/Reek back to him.

6.  We will get a brief look at Davos and Rickon in Skagos; perhaps the moment when Davos finds Rickon. Then Davos and Rickon and some skagosi will go to the north; I predict they will arrive just in time to join the battle on the ice, but maybe just after, or perhaps not until after Stannis and his northern allies have retaken winterfell. Rickon's presence will complicate Stannis' sway over the northerners, perhaps due to his being declared king in the north or lord of winterfell for a while, and this will be a factor in Stannis' eventual defeat and death, though I don't think stannis dies until the beginning of DOS.

7. Jon is not dead. If he's dead, he'll be revived, but I hope not and I doubt it. too many dead characters coming back to life already. he'll be out of commission for the first 1/2-3/4 of the book but back in action for the last 1/2-1/4. he'll be in winterfell by the end of wow. his motive for going there will be to support rickon and the northerners in a brewing power struggle with Stannis, and/or to hunt down ramsay. Jon's arrival with wildlings and perhaps loyal NW fighters tips the scales decisively to Rickon/starks/north in the struggle with Stannis. this is what leads stannis to burn shireen. Melisandre has traveled to winterfell with Jon and his force, and urges Stannis to burn Shireen. Davos ultimately forsakes Stannis, probably due to Stannis burning shireen, and sides with rickon/starks/the north. mel is blamed for shireen's death, and either escapes with Stannis or otherwise escapes or is exiled. after this we don't see her for a pretty long while. This last bit-burning Shireen, Davos switching sides, Mel disappearing - may not happen until the beginning of DOS.

8. Jaime survives lady Stoneheart-perhaps by escape, more likely by giving her something she wants more than his death. there are a variety of candidates here, but most of them are promises, such as finding/rescuing sansa or arya. preferably it is something he can deliver immediately or at least something that for some reason he cannot back out of. i don't think LS will just let him go because he promises to go save Sansa. my guess is his participation in some kind of scheme whereby he gets the freys to open the gates so as to let LS's brotherhood faction, posing as lannister troops, plus Arya and her wolf pack, into the twins for a frey massacre.  he escapes or is released after this, and ends up with cersei in casterly rock.

9. after the frey massacre Arya hears that Rickon is alive and has retaken winterfell. LS dies (for good this time) before she is reunited with Rickon, but arya and the wolves and the LS faction of the bwb arrive in winterfell around the 1/2-3/4 point of wow. this is also around the time the power struggle between stannis and the north/rickon starts to heat up. arya's arrival strengthens rickon's position and exacerbates the dispute.

10. the other faction of the BWB, under the Blackfish's leadership, inflict carnage on Freys and Lannisters at Riverrun and on the column trekking from Riverrun to Casterly rock. Edmure dies in the process, and Blackfish becomes lord of Riverrun.

11. Sandor Clegane does go back to KL to fight his monster brother on behalf of the faith. win or lose, Cersei survives the trial and the events of the following paragraph. my guess is both unGregor and Sandor die in the fight.

12. Arianne marries Aegon, and the combined Aegon/Golden company/Dornish army, with some stormland lords who've joined, march on King's landing, resulting in a prolonged, destructive, and bloody battle spanning most of the middle two quarters of wow. initially it's Aegon/Dornish vs. Tyrells/Lannisters. The faith militant support Aegon, hastening Aegon's victory. Tyrells either defect to Aegon, or more likely retreat to highgarden with their army and Margery, where they cower (the Martells and the Lannisters are hostile to them) and are absent from the main action (perhaps some fighting with euron, but I don't think euron will attack highgarden) until about a 1/4 into DOS. Cersei escapes, eventually reaching Casterly rock with Myrcella. Tommen is killed in the chaos, probably by one of the sand snakes. Aegon is crowned king with Arianne as his consort. the Martells savor their revenge until Dany shows up in DOS.

13. euron attacks oldtown. sam escapes to horn hill with some important book, presumably dragon lore. oldtown is sacked and pillaged, with euron frenziedly seeking the book that sam ran off with. the hightowers and the maesters are mostly wiped out, the citadel destroyed. Sam's possession of the dragon book plays a huge role in the end-game with the others near the end of DOS.

14. sansa marries harry the heir. then littlefinger, sweetrobin and harry the heir all die one way or another (Littlefinger murders sweetrobin, maybe Harry too; Vale lords/Royces, or maybe sansa, murder littlefinger). Sansa is now the lady of the vale, right?  sansa hears of rickon's and arya's presence in winterfell, and the brewing struggle with stannis, and takes herself and some force of Vale warriors to winterfell. rickon, arya and sansa are now reunited. Jon with NW and wildlings force arrives after this. Sansa and Jon's arrival with their respective forces mark the effective end of Stannis' power in the north (or anywhere else), with some end-stage violence and drama that probably doesn't culminate until DOS. I assume there will be some period of discord among the siblings, probably Sansa wanting the lordship herself, with Jon, Arya and virtually everyone else supporting Rickon (or Bran or even Jon). but i don't think this conflict happens until dos, after stannis is dead.

15. barristan and the mereenese are winning the battle for mereen until Vic uses the horn to take partial control of a dragon, who then starts killing fighters on both sides. so the battle, though initially looking great for Barristan and the mereenese, with a lot of thanks to the iron islanders, is far from over and hangs in the balance when Dany rides in on her dragon and decisively tips the balance. yunkish et al are wiped out. Khal Jhaqo and either his little band that found Dany or perhaps a bigger group of dothraki arrive a couple of days or a week or two later. there's no detour to Vaes Dothrak. the dothraki have decided to join Dany immediately out of fear and awe of the dragon.

16. Barristan dies in the battle of mereen, maybe from dragon fire thanks to Vic. 

17. Tyrion and Jorah meet Dany during or after the battle, and Tyrion becomes her advisor. not sure what she does with jorah. probably he dies in some noble way defending dany, probably in wow but maybe not until much later in dos.

18. as for Vic and the horn, assuming, as i think we should, that the horn has some real magic power, then vic will take some kind of control over a dragon, but it will be imperfect and unpredictable and cause all kinds of chaos and complications. specifically, I predict Vic is able to ride a dragon, but his control is so poor he is inflicting almost as much damage on the mereenese side as on the yunkish side. then dany shows up and the dragons fight. Vic's is injured, making it even more difficult to control. then Vic escapes and takes off to westeros on his dragon to confront euron, leaving the iron fleet and his force of iron islanders behind to be part of Dany's army. vic ends up dragon chow near the end of wow (see below). 

19. by 1/2-3/4 of the way through wow, soon after the battle of mereen and the khalasar's arrival,  Dany marshals her forces and leaves mereen, then attacks and destroys volantis and adds tens of thousands of freed slaves to her army. at that stage her army is well over 100,000, maybe  approaching 200,000 or more.

20. in the second 1/2 of wow, a group of Lannister-haters led by the Blackfish and including the non-LS faction of the BWB and perhaps others (river lords, such as the blackwoods, bent on revenge, and/or perhaps a contingent of Tyrells or Aegon/Dornish forces) besiege the now inadequately defended Casterly Rock. Jaime, Cersei and their remaining child Myrcella face impending doom. this is left as a  cliffhanger for DOS. but both Jaime and Cersei survive until near the end of DOS. Jaime participates in the struggle against the others before his death near the end of DOS.

21. Around the 3/4 mark, Victarion arrives in westeros riding an injured, poorly-controlled dragon, and confronts euron. His journey takes whatever period of time is convenient for GRRM plot-wise, because the dragon is injured and needs to stop and rest periodically, and Vic isn't really capable of controlling the dragon if it wants to stop somewhere. Vic loses his conflict with Euron and is killed and eaten by the dragon near the end of wow. but euron also fails to become a real dragon rider, because he doesn't have the dragon book that sam took. euron and his faction of iron born, with the dragon, become more than ever a wild card, sowing chaos and destruction, not decisively joining any particular side or faction.

22. Dany and her now massive host roll through essos and the free cities, including Pentos, and are in Pentos or Tyrosh near the end of the book, having gained hundreds of thousands of new recruits from the enslaved and oppressed and others (e.g. other bands of Dothraki) from all over essos in the course of her conquest from mereen to the free cities. Braavos throws in with Dany, and provides funding to help keep her army fed and clothed and armed. braavos siding with Dany means they reject Stannis' request for money, which is another cause of Stannis' political demise and eventual death. Dany sets off to invade westeros in the second from last POV chapter of wow. her host is over 200,000, maybe 1/4 million, maybe more.

23. Bran spends the first half of wow in the cave (only 2-4 Bran chapters in the first half of wow), then escapes and spends a big chunk of the second half of wow on another brutal, harrowing journey, south to the wall and then winterfell, arriving in winterfell at the end of wow. Meera will be with him, jojen will be dead. not sure about hodor. it's hard to imagine bran and meera making it back to winterfell without hodor but who knows. Bran's arrival at winterfell completes the reunification of the starks at winterfell. for a brief period, we get an optimistic "happy ending" to wow, with rickon, Bran, jon, arya and sansa all reunited at winterfell. this should be the next-to-last POV chapter. In this chapter we will also see Meera send word to her father that she is alive and in winterfell, setting up Howland's Reed's eventual participation in the end-game events of DOS.

24. the others begin their attack on the wall in the last 1/4 of wow. they breach it and begin pouring through in the last POV chapter.

25. there's an epilogue set someplace removed from the main action, involving one of the more interesting and mysterious minor characters - such as quaithe, marwyn, the green men on the Isle of Faces, or the faceless men. the epilogue provides an important clue as to the nature of the connections among the others, the Starks, the COTF, tPtwP, Azor Ahai, Valyria, dragons, the revival of magic, the screwed up seasons, the faceless men, and other such mysteries.

 

 

 

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Asshai serves one very specific purpose in the story, and for that matter the setting as a whole: To be a mysterious city on the far side of the world. The ultimate faraway, exotic location, so alien to the people of Westeros and so shrouded in riddles it might as well be a mythological place. It's to Westeros what China was to early-medieval Englishmen. Going there would defeat the whole purpose. It is meant to be far away and mysterious, not inspected up-close.

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29 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

Asshai serves one very specific purpose in the story, and for that matter the setting as a whole: To be a mysterious city on the far side of the world. The ultimate faraway, exotic location, so alien to the people of Westeros and so shrouded in riddles it might as well be a mythological place. It's to Westeros what China was to early-medieval Englishmen. Going there would defeat the whole purpose. It is meant to be far away and mysterious, not inspected up-close.

Also Daenerys already had the chance to go there and rejected it.

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Some things I'm confident in, some things are gut feetings, some are shots in the dark . . .

 

The North:

- Jon Snow is resurrected by Mel's magic, but he comes back harder, colder, justice personified . . . but still more human than Beric or UnCat

- The conspirators are executed

- Stannis wins the battle of Ice

- Stannis wins Winterfell through guile, the Manderly's enter with his "corpse" and sword while Stannis' men wear Frey colours. Roose and Ramsay are killed

- The Others arrive and Snow puts up a valiant fight but is forced to abandon the post

- Prologue chapter is Stannis. The Others are looming and he believes he is the man of destiny. He burns Shireen at Melisandre's insistence that it will win the battle against the darkness. It does not work. Stannis is killed in the battle.

 

The Eyrie

- Harry the heir is killed (or mortally wounded) in the tourney

- Sansa manipulates Sweetrobin to muster an army to meet her own ends

- Littlefinger is executed

 

The Riverlands

- Jaime is brought before UnCat and is able to win his "trial", though he must betray his Frey allies as part of the bargain

- The Freys are further depleted due to infighting and BwB assassinations

 

Westerlands

- Edmure Tully and Roslin Frey are intercepted/rescued before arriving at Casterly Rock by his uncle the Blackfish

 

The Reach

- Euron Greyjoy wins the Battle of Blood by summoning krakens with the blood of his pregnant mistress

- Aeron Greyjoy is sacrificed but breaths second life as a kraken

- Euron Greyjoy blows the horn of winter at Oldtown

- Sam escapes Oldtown to warn of the coming catastrophe

 

The Stormlands

- Aegon and Jon Con capture Storm's End

- Aegon and Jon Con defeat Mace Tyrell as Dorne reinforcements arrive in time to turn to the tide

- Aegon appears certain to take the Iron Throne and prepares to march on King's Landing

- Aegon and Jon Con are intercepted by Dany and her invading forces

- Aegon is burned with Jon Con beside him, he dies content beside the "son" of the man he loved

 

Dorne

- The Martells throw in with Aegon and Jon Con and commit their forces to him

- The Martell army is obliterated and the water gardens burn as Dany brings them to heel

 

The Crownlands

- Cersei wins her trial, either straight up or through treachery

- The Faith Militant is obliterated

- Cersei makes overtures to Euron after Dany's arrival

 

Across the Narrow Sea

- Barristan is killed in battle after the Shavepate betrays him

- The Shavepate executes Hizdahr within Mereen

- Victarion is bathed in dragon fire . . . he doesn't survive

- Tyrion and Jorah win Mereen in Dany's name . . . she arrives soon after and embraces Jorah and accepts Tyrion

- Dany aims to leave though when or how is not clear (she next shows up in the Reach)

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2 hours ago, SaltPoster said:

Some things I'm confident in, some things are gut feetings, some are shots in the dark . . .

 

The North:

- Jon Snow is resurrected by Mel's magic, but he comes back harder, colder, justice personified . . . but still more human than Beric or UnCat

- The conspirators are executed

- Stannis wins the battle of Ice

- Stannis wins Winterfell through guile, the Manderly's enter with his "corpse" and sword while Stannis' men wear Frey colours. Roose and Ramsay are killed

- The Others arrive and Snow puts up a valiant fight but is forced to abandon the post

- Prologue chapter is Stannis. The Others are looming and he believes he is the man of destiny. He burns Shireen at Melisandre's insistence that it will win the battle against the darkness. It does not work. Stannis is killed in the battle.

 

The Eyrie

- Harry the heir is killed (or mortally wounded) in the tourney

- Sansa manipulates Sweetrobin to muster an army to meet her own ends

- Littlefinger is executed

 

The Riverlands

- Jaime is brought before UnCat and is able to win his "trial", though he must betray his Frey allies as part of the bargain

- The Freys are further depleted due to infighting and BwB assassinations

 

Westerlands

- Edmure Tully and Roslin Frey are intercepted/rescued before arriving at Casterly Rock by his uncle the Blackfish

 

The Reach

- Euron Greyjoy wins the Battle of Blood by summoning krakens with the blood of his pregnant mistress

- Aeron Greyjoy is sacrificed but breaths second life as a kraken

- Euron Greyjoy blows the horn of winter at Oldtown

- Sam escapes Oldtown to warn of the coming catastrophe

 

The Stormlands

- Aegon and Jon Con capture Storm's End

- Aegon and Jon Con defeat Mace Tyrell as Dorne reinforcements arrive in time to turn to the tide

- Aegon appears certain to take the Iron Throne and prepares to march on King's Landing

- Aegon and Jon Con are intercepted by Dany and her invading forces

- Aegon is burned with Jon Con beside him, he dies content beside the "son" of the man he loved

 

Dorne

- The Martells throw in with Aegon and Jon Con and commit their forces to him

- The Martell army is obliterated and the water gardens burn as Dany brings them to heel

 

The Crownlands

- Cersei wins her trial, either straight up or through treachery

- The Faith Militant is obliterated

- Cersei makes overtures to Euron after Dany's arrival

 

Across the Narrow Sea

- Barristan is killed in battle after the Shavepate betrays him

- The Shavepate executes Hizdahr within Mereen

- Victarion is bathed in dragon fire . . . he doesn't survive

- Tyrion and Jorah win Mereen in Dany's name . . . she arrives soon after and embraces Jorah and accepts Tyrion

- Dany aims to leave though when or how is not clear (she next shows up in the Reach)

A few notes:

I think you mean that Stannis is in the epilogue, not the prologue.  The prologue is at the beginning; if he dies there he can't do anything else.

Sweetrobin is 8 years old.  He can't muster up anything on his own.  If Sansa wants an army, it's the Vale lords she will have to convince, Yohn Royce likely the most important.  Not sure what she would do with it though.

Roslin Frey is still at the Twins until she gives birth.  A rescue attempt for Edmure and Jeyne Westerling is a possibility though.  

You left out Arya and Bran.  Understandable; I have trouble figuring out their future stories as well.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was just re-reading the "Forsaken" sample chapter from WOW and I'm just in awe of Euron Greyjoy as a character.

I think some of the theories that have been brought up these past few years are not that far off from the actual truth,not matter how exagerated they may seem at first.

Either he's going to summon some sort of Dark God from the depths of the sea or he is going to end up taming one of Dany's dragons through that giant blood sacrifice he means to unleash.

In anyway, I'm just amazed at how well written the chapter is. Aeron's POV is just perfect, the whole narrative is nightmarish as f***.

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ok I get the chapter counts were off but I have a new one.

Also I’m reviving Davos, since killing him was a mistake.I’m giving him ten extra chapters

three volumes of twow

Volume 1

pov-

Cersei- 11 chapters, Nymeria- 2 chapters, Tyene- 2 chapters, Arianne- 14 Chapters, Obara- 18 chapters, Jon- 6 chapters,Areo- 4 chapters, Elia- 8 chapters, Sam-5 chapters, Aeron-7 chapters, Sarella-8 chapters 

1)The Two Queens

2) The South and the Road to Kings landing.

3) The second sack(first part)

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I’ve thought on it and 5 chapters are too less for arya to cover her track completely, so I’m giving her more 5 chapters.

Volume 2 

pov- Davos-17 chapters, Asha-17 chapters, Sansa-17 chapters, Bran-10 Chapters, Melisandre- 10 chapters, Jaime- 5 Chapters, Brienne- 13 Chapters, Cersei-2 Chapters, Tyene- 1 Chapter, Arianne- 2 Chapters

1) The North

2) Beyond the Wall

3)The Vale

4) Stoneheart

5)The Second Sack(the remaining part)

Volume 3

Pov- Dany- 17 Chapters, Barristan- 15 chapters, Victarion- 10 chapters, Tyrion-5 chapters, Arya-10 chapters.

1)The East

2)Braavos

So what does evertone think @Nevets @The Lord of the Crossing @SeanF @Aldarion  @King_Hodor_the_Short

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26 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I’ve thought on it and 5 chapters are too less for arya to cover her track completely, so I’m giving her more 5 chapters.

Volume 2 

pov- Davos-17 chapters, Asha-17 chapters, Sansa-17 chapters, Bran-10 Chapters, Melisandre- 10 chapters, Jaime- 5 Chapters, Brienne- 13 Chapters, Cersei-2 Chapters, Tyene- 1 Chapter, Arianne- 2 Chapters

1) The North

2) Beyond the Wall

3)The Vale

4) Stoneheart

5)The Second Sack(the remaining part)

Volume 3

Pov- Dany- 17 Chapters, Barristan- 15 chapters, Victarion- 10 chapters, Tyrion-5 chapters, Arya-10 chapters.

1)The East

2)Braavos

So what does evertone think @Nevets @The Lord of the Crossing @SeanF @Aldarion  @King_Hodor_the_Short

I don't know that there will be a sack.  I think that Kings Landing might fall quite easily to fAegon/Arianne.

But, I expect a purge, with the backing of the Faith.  People associated with the Tyrells/Lannisters/Baratheons, will be put to death horribly.  I wouldn't be surprised to see stuff like Tommen and Margaery being burned at the stake by the new regime.  And, that's when Arianne will realise just what her cousins and the other Dornish are like, and just how far in over her head she is.

I think we'll witness some of the cruellest scenes in the whole series, at Kings Landing.

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36 minutes ago, SeanF said:

But, I expect a purge, with the backing of the Faith.  People associated with the Tyrells/Lannisters/Baratheons, will be put to death horribly.  I wouldn't be surprised to see stuff like Tommen and Margaery being burned at the stake by the new regime

Why would they burn Margaery at the stake though? The High Sparrow said the evidence against her was weak. And why would they back the Targaryens when they practice incest, which the faith are against? Unless Aegon agrees to end this practice.

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20 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Why would they burn Margaery at the stake though? The High Sparrow said the evidence against her was weak. And why would they back the Targaryens when they practice incest, which the faith are against? Unless Aegon agrees to end this practice.

Jon Con and the Sands absolutely hate the ancien regime, along with the Sparrows and many of the smallfolk.

I assume he marries Arianne, who is a distant cousin, so this would not be an issue. 

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34 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Jon Con and the Sands absolutely hate the ancien regime

But the Baratheons aren't the ancien regime, the Targaryens are. I can understand Jon Con and the Sand snakes wanting to pursue that course of action but I don't think the faith would back them.

And the Smallfolk in the city love Margaery.

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