The winds of winter predictions 2.0

[Nevets]

@Gilbert Green I am taking the opposite tack.  Until I see something definitive, I am going to assume that all or nearly all POVs will be present.  An eight-year-old interview in a foreign language with tangled syntax and imprecise numbers does not qualify as definitive.  Especially as it hasn't been referenced since. 

[Gilbert Green]

2 minutes ago, Nevets said:

@Gilbert Green I am taking the opposite tack.  Until I see something definitive, I am going to assume that all or nearly all POVs will be present.  An eight-year-old interview in a foreign language with tangled syntax and imprecise numbers does not qualify as definitive.  Especially as it hasn't been referenced since. 

We will have to wait and see which guess was closer to the truth.   15 or fewer POVs and I get bragging rights.  17 or more and you get bragging rights.  16 POVs will be a wash.  Fair?

But I must now revise my original prediction.  Am unsure if I should increase my confirmed count to 14, or be more tentantive about some of the semi-confirmed ones.   His NAB reference to "Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty" need not be read as confirming all 4 POVs, as POVs.

[sifth]

13 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

We will have to wait and see which guess was closer to the truth.   15 or fewer POVs and I get bragging rights.  17 or more and you get bragging rights.  16 POVs will be a wash.  Fair?

But I must now revise my original prediction.  Am unsure if I should increase my confirmed count to 14, or be more tentantive about some of the semi-confirmed ones.   His NAB reference to "Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty" need not be read as confirming all 4 POVs, as POVs.

The thing is, we're getting a POV at The Wall. GRRM has been very hush about this plot line, but he has mentioned it being difficult for him to write more than once. So it's either Mel or Jon; the former being the more likely one, for obvious reasons.

[Gilbert Green]

3 hours ago, sifth said:

The thing is, we're getting a POV at The Wall. GRRM has been very hush about this plot line, but he has mentioned it being difficult for him to write more than once. So it's either Mel or Jon; the former being the more likely one, for obvious reasons.

Too many moving parts for me here.  Maybe there won't be a POV at the Wall and the aftermath will be a mystery spread by ravens and rumors.  Or maybe there will be 14+ POVs.  Or maybe a POV other than Mel (Asha, Theon, Bran, Sam) will reach the Wall or (in Bran's case) observe events at the Wall.  Or maybe we will get Mel chapters, but not a Sam chapter in Sam's POV.

What are the exact words of his saying the Wall chapters are difficult?  Because he just said that about Bran.

[sifth]

2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Too many moving parts for me here.  Maybe there won't be a POV at the Wall and the aftermath will be a mystery spread by ravens and rumors.  Or maybe there will be 14+ POVs.  Or maybe a POV other than Mel (Asha, Theon, Bran, Sam) will reach the Wall or (in Bran's case) observe events at the Wall.  Or maybe we will get Mel chapters, but not a Sam chapter in Sam's POV.

What are the exact words of his saying the Wall chapters are difficult?  Because he just said that about Bran.

You're going to have to make me look through over 11 years of stuff GRRM talked about, in regards to the book, to find his exact words. My man, I love this series, but even I'm not that good. All I remember is, he said a few years back that he still had a lot of chapters still to write, in regards to that plot line.

[Gilbert Green]

4 minutes ago, sifth said:

You're going to have to make me look through over 11 years of stuff GRRM talked about, in regards to the book, to find his exact words. My man, I love this series, but even I'm not that good. All I remember is, he said a few years back that he still had a lot of chapters still to write, in regards to that plot line.

I won't make you do that.  "A few years back" is clue enough. 

[BlackLightning]

21 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

So fair enough.  I must count Bran as at least semi-confirmed, and revise my prediction accordingly.  In fact, I think Bran now gets precedence over Sam and Mel, and perhaps even Asha.

Thank you for the link.

If GRRM really wants Bran to become the King of All Westeros at the end of the series and not look like an idiot, then Bran has to take precedence over Sam, Mel and Asha.

In fact, Bran has to get back to the point where he is keeping pace with Dany, Tyrion and Arya.

[Gilbert Green]

20 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

nm

 

[Gilbert Green]

21 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

If GRRM really wants Bran to become the King of All Westeros at the end of the series and not look like an idiot, then Bran has to take precedence over Sam, Mel and Asha.

That's a big if.  And I'm trying, as best I can, to work only with GRRM's statements.

[Nevets]

53 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

That's a big if.  And I'm trying, as best I can, to work only with GRRM's statements.

Unfortunately, GRRM's statements have a tendency to be unclear and ambiguous.  That is certainly the case with the French interview you insist on following.  I prefer to work only with statements that are clear and unambiguous.

[Gilbert Green]

33 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Unfortunately, GRRM's statements have a tendency to be unclear and ambiguous.  That is certainly the case with the French interview you insist on following.  I prefer to work only with statements that are clear and unambiguous.

I'm not insisting on anything.  I will happily discard the French interview, when I find something clearer and less ambiguous that contradicts it.  Which could happen.  It might happen soon if GRRM keeps name-dropping POV chapters.

But it has not happened yet. 

In the meantime, people seem to want me to discard this tidbit of information merely because it does not match what they want to hear.  But that's just not my methodology.

Anyone who does not like my methodology is perfectly free to move on to a dozen other fan-wishlist-style predictions for WINDS, of which there have been many, including in this thread.  They can feel free to make their own predictions as well.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I would love to see a Willas or Garlan POW. Both characters have amazing potential.

[LongRider]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

Unfortunately, GRRM's statements have a tendency to be unclear and ambiguous.  That is certainly the case with the French interview you insist on following.  I prefer to work only with statements that are clear and unambiguous.

I also get the impression that GRRM changes plans often, for various reasons.   I expect that we’ll see some unexpected plot twists. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I could see Euron Greyjoy stealing King Joffrey's Valor, the war galley that the Redwynes started to build for Joffrey prior to the Purple Wedding, and use it as his new admiral ship.

[BlackLightning]

On 11/27/2022 at 11:44 AM, Nevets said:

I'm not buying the whole 13 POV idea.  His statement in the interview is unclear and vague, and subject to interpretation, and that's without considering any translation issues.

 

Me neither

@Gilbert Green There are 20 (18 if both of the Jons stop getting POV chapters) POVs and GRRM said that he's not going to split up the POV characters and put them in different books. I have every reason to believe him because the whole FeastDance split caused way more problems than it solved.

We haven't had a proper POV chapter from Samwell, Sansa and Brienne since 2005! He can't leave out certain POVs. Jon Connington is dead on his feet so we're probably going to not see him anymore.

On 11/29/2022 at 8:32 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I could see Euron Greyjoy stealing King Joffrey's Valor, the war galley that the Redwynes started to build for Joffrey prior to the Purple Wedding and use it as his new admiral ship.

When on Earth would he do that?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

31 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Me neither

@Gilbert Green There are 20 (18 if the two Jons if Snow actually does end up dying and Connington becomes this ticking time bomb that the reader knows about but no one else does never gets another POV chapter again) POVs and GRRM said that he's not going to split up the POV characters and put them in different books. I have every reason to believe him because the whole FeastDance split caused way more problems than it solved.

We haven't had a proper POV chapter from Samwell, Sansa and Brienne since 2005! He can't leave out certain POVs. Jon Connington is dead on his feet so we're probably going to not see him anymore.

When on Earth would he do that?

During or after his battle with the Redwyne Fleet, if he does win the battle and if the galley had been finished and incorporated in the Redwyne Fleet, or if it's still at the Arbor. I think it's possible that the Arbor may be targeted before or after Oldtown.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

During or after his battle with the Redwyne Fleet, if he does win the battle and if the galley had been finished and incorporated in the Redwyne Fleet, or if it's still at the Arbor. I think it's possible that the Arbor may be targeted before or after Oldtown.

When did they start building this galley? After the Redwynes were restored to the Iron Throne at the end of Clash

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

43 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

When did they start building this galley? After the Redwynes were restored to the Iron Throne at the end of Clash

During A Storm of Swords, Paxter Redwyne gave a model of the ship to Joffrey as a wedding gift.

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

 

@Gilbert Green There are 20 (18 if the two Jons if Snow actually does end up dying and Connington becomes this ticking time bomb that the reader knows about but no one else does never gets another POV chapter again) POVs and GRRM said that he's not going to split up the POV characters and put them in different books. I have every reason to believe him because the whole FeastDance split caused way more problems than it solved.

We haven't had a proper POV chapter from Samwell, Sansa and Brienne since 2005! He can't leave out certain POVs. Jon Connington is dead on his feet so we're probably going to not see him anymore.

Sansa is confirmed for WINDS. 

There were 22 POVs in FEAST/DANCE.  Those plausibly eliminated by death include: (1) Arys - chopped; (2) Quentyn - flamed; (3) Jon Snow - stabbed; (4) Brienne - hanged; (5) Jaime - lured into a death trap; (6) Sam - put to bed by a faceless assassin.

Which brings us down to 16, which coincidentally is how many POVs GRRM said he had left in 2013 (without necessarily saying that all would appear in WINDS).  I personally don't think all six are truly dead.  But their POVs might go silent for a while to keep us guessing.

POVs plausibly dropped for reasons not necessarily of death or fake-death include (7) Davos - disappeared in the mists of Skagos; (8) Jon Con - No longer needed once Arianne arrives; (9) maybe Mel?, depending on what GRRM needs her for.  Substitute these 3 in, and you can keep more of the first 6 alive.

When I suggest that one or more POVs might go on hiatus for an entire volume, I am not suggesting anything analogous to the Feast/Dance split.  I am merely referring to what happened to Theon's POV in STORM.

Characters plausibly on volume long hiatus might include Dany and/or Davos.  Dany might go mad in WINDS.  This might be a bit much to endure from Dany's own POV.  Maybe that's why we have a Barristan POV instead.

 

 

[Brother Seamus]

On 11/27/2022 at 12:44 PM, Nevets said:

I'm not buying the whole 13 POV idea.  His statement in the interview is unclear and vague, and subject to interpretation, and that's without considering any translation issues.

He is commenting that his POV count has increased greatly.  He says he had seven in the first book (actually eight), but now has 13 in the beginning of this one but fewer by the end.  Nothing about the middle.  I find it very unclear and imprecise.

It also makes the story incoherent and full of gaps.  I don't think anyone seriously believes Daenerys or Bran won't appear, and I can't see him killing characters like Brienne or Jaime off page.  Jon Connington is expendable, and if Jaime dies soon (I doubt Brienne dies early; she got too much build up in AFFC) Brienne can cover it.  John Snow could disappear as a POV, but I'm not convinced he is even dead.

He could have fewer than 13 POVs by the end.  People could die, or no longer be active POVs.  The Stark kids, Tyrion, and Dany are the only ones I'm convinced will make it all the way to the end of TWOW.

I agree. I confidently predict we will see POVs from Jon, Dany, Davos, Brienne, Jaime, and Bran, which adds up to at least 19, accepting Black Lightning's other confirmed and semi confirmed POVs (which I do, at least tentatively).