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The winds of winter predictions 2.0


Daenerysthegreat

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On 10/17/2022 at 9:22 PM, Nevets said:

My proposed chapter numbers for each character:

Daenerys 10; Tyrion 9; Jon Snow 9; Arya 9; Sansa 8; Bran 7.

Cersei 7; Davos 5; Samwell 5; Brienne 4; Theon 3; Jamie 2.

Arianne 4; Asha 4; Barristan 4; Victarion 4; Melisandre 3; Aeron 3; Jon Connington 2; Areo Hotah 2.

Total is 104 plus prologue and maybe epilogue gives 105-106, which fits into two books the same length as Feast.  I tried to do one volume but couldn't get below 92, which is too many for one book.  Too many characters and stories to deal with.

I really don't see the need for so many chapters. For example:

Dany - 7-9.  I think 10 may be about about right, but 6-8 would do. We need one to pick up her last scene in DOD (1). Then one where she enters the battle at Mereen (2). one post battle, where she meets tyrion, reunites with Jorah, consolidates her administration, etc. (3) one where she prepares for and sets out on her voyage of conquest through essos (4). next chapter is the attack on Volantis (5). then 2 or 3 or 4 attacking Pentos, Myr, Tyrosh and Lorath, and negotiating with Braavos, solidifying preparation for crossing narrow sea, and departing for westeros (7-9).

Jon--4-5. one after he wakes up, showing his recuperation (1). more recuperation, gets more info, marshals his forces and departs for winterfell (2). arrives in winterfell (3). one or two more (4-5).

Barristan -the two we have, then one more during the battle where he dies (3).

Arya - 8-9.  Mercy chapter (1). next chapter she departs for and or arrives in westeros  (2). makes her way to riverlands and reunites with Nymeria, takes effective control through Nymeria of the huge wolf pack. (3). makes her way to Inn at the Crossing, meets hot pie, sets out to find BWB (4). finds BWB and LS (5). participates in attack on twins/frey massacre. (6). leads wolf pack and BWB remnants to winterfell after having heard that Rickon is there. (7). 2-3 chapters at winterfell. (8-9).

Tyrion - 6-8. 2 during battle of mereen, 1-2 in mereen before departing with Dany on conquest of essos, then 3-4 more following story for Dany suggested above.

Bran 3-6. could be only one or two in the cave, one or two traveling from the cave to winterfell, and one where he arrives in winterfell. 

Victarion - 7.

sansa 7-9.

Davos-2-3.

theon 3-4.

Jamie 2-3-4.

Brienne - 1-2.

Samwell - 5.

arianne - 6

cersei 5

that's 73-83. your remainder that's 14 more; I'd cut that to 7 for 80-90, plus prologue and epilogue.

 

 

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On 12/8/2022 at 2:09 PM, Brother Seamus said:

I agree. I confidently predict we will see POVs from Jon, Dany, Davos, Brienne, Jaime, and Bran, which adds up to at least 19, accepting Black Lightning's other confirmed and semi confirmed POVs (which I do, at least tentatively).

Yea

I actually think that both Jon Connington and Jon Snow will stop getting POV chapters halfway through the book.

Jon Snow will have died, lived a second life as a direwolf before being "resurrected" (as in restored to his own body, against his knowledge or consent) at which point we will no longer get a POV from him. Pretty much, the situation with Jon Snow will be the same situation as Catelyn's. Upon their deaths, they no longer get POV chapters...even though they still play very important roles in the story.

With Jon Connington, I think that his POV will end about halfway through the book after the most essential battles in Aegon's campaign have already been fought and won; after which Arianne will become the sole POV in Camp Aegon. The poor man is as good as dead and I think it serves the story for us to see him through the POV of other characters who have no idea that he is a ticking time bomb...patient zero in a greyscale pandemic. Plus, doesn't greyscale drive people insane?

On 12/8/2022 at 2:37 PM, Brother Seamus said:

I really don't see the need for so many chapters. For example:

Dany - 7-9.  I think 10 may be about about right, but 6-8 would do. We need one to pick up her last scene in DOD (1). Then one where she enters the battle at Mereen (2). one post battle, where she meets tyrion, reunites with Jorah, consolidates her administration, etc. (3) one where she prepares for and sets out on her voyage of conquest through essos (4). next chapter is the attack on Volantis (5). then 2 or 3 or 4 attacking Pentos, Myr, Tyrosh and Lorath, and negotiating with Braavos, solidifying preparation for crossing narrow sea, and departing for westeros (7-9).

Jon--4-5. one after he wakes up, showing his recuperation (1). more recuperation, gets more info, marshals his forces and departs for winterfell (2). arrives in winterfell (3). one or two more (4-5).

Barristan -the two we have, then one more during the battle where he dies (3).

Arya - 8-9.  Mercy chapter (1). next chapter she departs for and or arrives in westeros  (2). makes her way to riverlands and reunites with Nymeria, takes effective control through Nymeria of the huge wolf pack. (3). makes her way to Inn at the Crossing, meets hot pie, sets out to find BWB (4). finds BWB and LS (5). participates in attack on twins/frey massacre. (6). leads wolf pack and BWB remnants to winterfell after having heard that Rickon is there. (7). 2-3 chapters at winterfell. (8-9).

Tyrion - 6-8. 2 during battle of mereen, 1-2 in mereen before departing with Dany on conquest of essos, then 3-4 more following story for Dany suggested above.

Bran 3-6. could be only one or two in the cave, one or two traveling from the cave to winterfell, and one where he arrives in winterfell. 

Victarion - 7.

sansa 7-9.

Davos-2-3.

theon 3-4.

Jamie 2-3-4.

Brienne - 1-2.

Samwell - 5.

arianne - 6

cersei 5

that's 73-83. your remainder that's 14 more; I'd cut that to 7 for 80-90, plus prologue and epilogue.

I think you are 1) grossly underestimating the amount of story that needs to take place and 2) thinking that the characters are able to teleport.

For example, Dany. You do know that it's going to take at least three chapters for Dany to get out of her situation with the Dothraki. As a widow of a khal, she's supposed to be - more or less - confined in Vaes Dothrak and join the Dosh Khaleen where she is to serves as a judge and a seer for the rest of her life. She's not supposed to leave, much less gallivant across Essos to freeing slaves, smashing armies and ruling cities. Even if they don't immediately try to enslave or execute her as punishment, it's a serious situation that she has to deal with...because she can't just leave. Drogon is dangerous and bigger than the biggest horse...but he's not Balerion. Not yet. (Actually I think that her trials in Vaes Dothrak perfectly harmonize with the issues that Cersei and Margaery are facing in King's Landing.)

Then, she has to somehow get herself acknowledged by most of the Dothraki as a female khal, if not the Stallion that Mounts the World. Then she has to take her new army (no matter how big it is) all the way back to Meereen. Sure, Dany fly now and get from point A to point B faster than anyone else...but she'll be leading an army; she can't go too fast. And Vaes Dothrak is very far away from Meereen.

And while you have the right of it when you say that Dany has to deal with Volantis and the other Free Cities before she can even begin the journey to Westeros, you have forgotten that she also has to deal with Qarth which is in the opposite direction. Not too far but...it's in the opposite direction. She can't leave the enemies such as the Qartheen unharmed in her rear. Like in Astapor and Yunkai, they'll undo and destroy everything she did.

 

Plus, you're missing five POVs: Melisandre, Asha, Connington, Hotah and Aeron. Now Aeron might just only have two or three chapters (partially because GRRM doesn't want us knowing too much about Euron) but Melisandre is going to have to be the sole POV for the Wall (at least until if/when Snow comes back), Connington is the sole Aegon POV until Arianne shows up and Asha is being positioned differently than Theon. And Areo is doing something completely unique from everyone else. Unlike Connington, Asha, Melisandre and Aeron, there are no nearby POVs with Areo.

Frankly, I feel like what Areo is about to do in The Winds of Winter (and maybe A Dream of Spring) is the reason why his POV was created in the first place. Why else would he need an Areo POV? He's not an engaging character; all he ever does is watch other people do and say important stuff. GRRM could've told the Dornish story strictly from the POV of Arianne and/or Arys. He only ever really needed one POV in Dorne, much less three.

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Apparently, Hotah will have several chapters in Winds. Maybe even as many as 4, according to some estimates.

Which is telling

I have my own somewhat tinfoil theory about what Hotah will do and see in The Winds of Winter. It'll have nothing to do with Euron or Aegon and everything to do with Eddard Stark, all of House Dayne and R+L=J.

Not sure if he will survive Winds, but if he does, I have another tinfoil theory about what Hotah will do and see  in A Dream of Spring.

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20 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Which is telling

I have my own somewhat tinfoil theory about what Hotah will do and see in The Winds of Winter. It'll have nothing to do with Euron or Aegon and everything to do with Eddard Stark, all of House Dayne and R+L=J.

Not sure if he will survive Winds, but if he does, I have another tinfoil theory about what Hotah will do and see  in A Dream of Spring.

Makes you wonder how much has changed in the writing process. For example from recently discovered notes, we now know that Victarion was suppose to die in his second chapter and that Jaqen/Pate is indeed after a glass candle, at the Citadel.

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2 hours ago, sifth said:

Makes you wonder how much has changed in the writing process. For example from recently discovered notes, we now know that Victarion was suppose to die in his second chapter and that Jaqen/Pate is indeed after a glass candle, at the Citadel.

Say what?

What else have we learned?

Victarion was supposed to die in The Reaver?

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1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Say what?

What else have we learned?

Victarion was supposed to die in The Reaver?

Yea, so apparently whenever GRRM completes a draft for one of his books, he hands in a copy to a college library. A Reddit user, called Gsteff went to the library and read through over several drafts of AFFC and ADWD and over the last few months has been posting all sorts of interesting stuff. Such as there was suppose to be a mystery in AFFC on what happened to Kevan Lannister, shortly after he leaves Kings Landing. The guy is suppose to just vanish, after his son's marriage. 

https://www.reddit.com/user/gsteff/

 

Here's a link to gsteff's reddit posts.

 

Also Preston has made a few vids on these paths not taken.

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On 12/10/2022 at 11:31 AM, BlackLightning said:

I think you are 1) grossly underestimating the amount of story that needs to take place and 2) thinking that the characters are able to teleport.

 

I disagree on 1, and on 2 there's no need to be a dick. no teleporting needed.

I am indeed predicting that the whole detour to Vaes dothrak we saw in the tv show doesn't happen. she's not that far from Mereen, as the dragon flies. i don't know what the piurpose of meeting the dothraki is but if she can get control of drogon she can be back to Mereen in a couple of hours or so. the Dothraki can follow later.

and i don't think the whole thing with Jon dying, warging into ghost, and then being restored to his magically revived body will happen. it's just too goofy, too fan-fic-ish, and we have too many people magically coming back to life already. if people keep getting resurrected, getting killed loses its meaning. and it's unnecessary. he can just be gravely injured, in a coma, and heal and then wake up after the mid-point of the book.

i agree I have no idea what Hotah is doing or why he's there so I have no real sense how many chapters this will be. but again whatever it is, the whole dark star thing, is a sideshow.

no need to deal with qarth. the victory at mereen will sufficiently wipe out any other rival power (aren't there qartheen ships and soldiers already at Mereen?). and if needed, she can just fly over there and burn them out.

let's put it this way, if GRRM is going to continue leading his characters around on these sideshow subplots,  like he did for affc and dwd, he'll need four more books, not two.

to me, affc and dwd were a kind of bridge - like a bridge in a song - for the purpose of moving people around to put them in place for the second act, in wow. that's why it felt - to me anyway - like the story wasn't really advanced very much over both books, but instead many characters were frothing about going in circles or running in place. my hope and prediction is that he'll get the story under control enough that at the end of wow the third act will be set up for dos. I'm no scholar of every little thing he's said over the years, but my sense of his comments is that he realizes that what he needs to do is narrow and focus the story, tying up subplots etc, and move the story to its resolution.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Euron wanted to give Dany to Victarion as a gift instead of claiming her for himself, which is quite strange.

Not really.  Euron is just getting Victarion to do what he wants, that is, bring the Iron Fleet to Slaver's Bay.  But he plans to be 2 steps ahead of Victarion and take Dany for himself.

In the current books, Victarion plans to betray Euron, and take Dany for himself.  And Euron knows this, and gives him an opportunity to try to do just that.   The point, again, is to get Victarion to bring the Iron Fleet to Slaver's Bay.  And again, Euron plans to be 2 steps ahead of Victarion.

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On 12/11/2022 at 11:40 AM, BlackLightning said:

What else have we learned?

That, at least in dreams, Daario has blue lips. 

In the final draft, dream-Daario is changed to dream-Hidzhar (another suitor).  But the Daario-connection is kept by having Daario lying next to her during the dream, maybe as if he were inspiring it.    In the earlier draft, Dany woke up to Missandei, not Daario.

Maybe GRRM changed the clue because too on the nose.  Unless you prefer Gsteff's theory that the dream is about Jon Snow stabbing Dany to death with his knife.

I am biased because I had long believed this dream-Hidzhar was really Daario.  So this old draft subjectively feels like confirmation to me.

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In my analysis of the titled chapters I found many parallels could be drawn between Areo Hotah and Ser Gregor Clegane. I anticipate Areo will repeat things that Gregor has done in the past. Robert's Rebellion pitted 5 houses against 2: Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon, and Lannister, against Targaryen and Martell. The Lannisters (the Stranger of the 7) played both sides, only choosing the rebels once it became clear that they could win.

The Martells are seeking yet again to ally themselves with house Targaryen by sending Quentyn to Danaerys, as well as "the Roynar" by sending Arianne to Young Griff. All the while sending an envoy to Kings Landing to serve on the Small Council. But just like Tywin, Doran seeks to play both sides, because he is unsure who will win. Doran seems to be repeating Tywin's role in the Rebellion, and Areo could very well serve Doran in the same capacity as Gregor did - carrying out attacks and generally killing without mercy. Gregor famously tore an infant from Elia's arms and dashed his head against a wall. Will Areo show up after Arianne to save Young Griff during a sack of a city? Or if Young Griff really is Rhaegar's son Aegon, maybe Areo will be the one to actually carry out the dashing of his head against a wall? Its all speculation of course, but its something to think about.

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18 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

I am indeed predicting that the whole detour to Vaes dothrak we saw in the tv show doesn't happen. she's not that far from Mereen, as the dragon flies. i don't know what the piurpose of meeting the dothraki is but if she can get control of drogon she can be back to Mereen in a couple of hours or so. the Dothraki can follow later.

That's the thing; it's not really a detour. It's a dangling plotline from Game of Thrones and Clash of Kings. Quaithe has told her (more than once) that she has to go back in order to move forward.

And why would they follow later? Why wouldn't they just take her now? Because of Drogon? Khal Jhaqo has archers with him and they are right in front of her. Even if Drogon could survive the barrage of arrows at such close range, Dany wouldn't.

Even if they follow later, they are going to try to take her back to Vaes Dothrak.

And the city is no condition to withstand a fresh Dothraki khalasar.

18 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

and i don't think the whole thing with Jon dying, warging into ghost, and then being restored to his magically revived body will happen. it's just too goofy, too fan-fic-ish, and we have too many people magically coming back to life already. if people keep getting resurrected, getting killed loses its meaning. and it's unnecessary. he can just be gravely injured, in a coma, and heal and then wake up after the mid-point of the book.

A coma?

Jon has not only been stabbed at least 20 times, but his throat has been cut. Castle Black has no maester and the other people who stand any chance of helping him (Melisandre and that one drunken septon) are completely busy elsewhere.

There's no way he is going to survive something like that without magical intervention.

We literally had Melisandre see a human male transform into a wolf and then back into a human in the flames. Not only that but Melisandre also saw Bran as a boy with the face of a wolf.

Melisandre can show up at the last minute and find a way to magically preserve and heal his body (someone mentioned that the spell that Mirri Maz Duur cast to save Drogo's body can be feasibly pulled off by Melisandre) but...that's going to take just as much time as resurrecting his body. Jon can warg into Ghost while he is in a coma or after death; it doesn't matter.

18 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

but again whatever it is, the whole dark star thing, is a sideshow.

let's put it this way, if GRRM is going to continue leading his characters around on these sideshow subplots,  like he did for affc and dwd, he'll need four more books, not two.

Why would the whole Darkstar thing be a sideshow?

I don't get why there are fans who think that everything that doesn't have to anything do with the Stark-Lannister feud and the invasion of the Others is a sideshow. It's annoying and ignorant.

Darkstar is a member of House Dayne and House Dayne has been pretty interesting part of the story since the midpoint of A Game of Thrones. All the stuff pertaining to Ned Stark, Jon Snow, the Tower of Joy and whatever the hell there happened depends on House Dayne. Why?

I don't know but it's strange that Ned went straight for Starfall (the seat of House Dayne) immediately after leaving the Tower of Joy? Why would he go there? The Martells are the rulers of Dorne and they are based in Sunspear. Why go to Starfall?

And then there's all this stuff with Howland Reed (who is the only living witness for whatever happened at the Tower of Joy and at Starfall) and Edric Dayne (who was trying to tell Arya something about Jon). Even Barristan Selmy and Catelyn Stark (yeah, she's undead but she clearly hasn't forgotten) are invested in the Daynes, particularly Ashara. A lot of people in the realm think that Ashara Dayne is Jon's real mother...but when Ned hears the rumors, he gets super angry?

That's part of the reason why the "R+L=J" thing went nowhere and the show sucked in the final two seasons...because there was no House Dayne.

I'm not just talking about you...but this whole "sideshow subplot" stuff just basically proves that a lot of the fandom is almost as shallow as D&D.

18 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

no need to deal with qarth. the victory at mereen will sufficiently wipe out any other rival power (aren't there qartheen ships and soldiers already at Mereen?). and if needed, she can just fly over there and burn them out.

No need to deal with Qarth?

I think you have forgotten their armada. Qarth only has a few ships at Meereen. The armada that they all possess (which we saw in Clash) is massive.

Even if it's just a case of Dany flying over to Qarth and burning them out, it's still going to take a POV chapter to do so.

Abandoning Qarth means allowing slavery to continue. Why would Dany do that?

18 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

to me, affc and dwd were a kind of bridge - like a bridge in a song - for the purpose of moving people around to put them in place for the second act, in wow. that's why it felt - to me anyway - like the story wasn't really advanced very much over both books, but instead many characters were frothing about going in circles or running in place. my hope and prediction is that he'll get the story under control enough that at the end of wow the third act will be set up for dos. I'm no scholar of every little thing he's said over the years, but my sense of his comments is that he realizes that what he needs to do is narrow and focus the story, tying up subplots etc, and move the story to its resolution.

 

The story has advanced quite a bit.

Not as much as it would have if Dance had been a full-length novel. But it has definitely advanced.

Take Stannis. At the end of Storm, he is sauntering around Castle Black complaining about the Watch and trying to legitimize Jon Snow. By the end of Dance, his army (although on the brink of starvation) has gotten significantly larger, he's eliminated a major Ironborn outpost in the west, he has tasked Melisandre and Davos with separate missions and he's basically staring down the walls of Winterfell.

The King's Landing story has gone from Cersei Lannister being the supreme authority in the Seven Kingdoms with Tywin and Tyrion gone to...

  • Cersei under house arrest
  • Kevan dead
  • Varys entering the final stage of his schemes
  • the Faith Militant becoming a new power bloc with the ability and willingness to control the Iron Throne
  • the Tyrells overstretching themselves now that they have effectively taken over the government.

Tyrion? Yes, this dragged quite a bit (and it was painful to read) but Storm ended with Tyrion - more or less - becoming what everyone had accused him of being. Where has he gone now? Well, outside of the fact that Tyrion has now embraced wanton acts of cruelty to spite others who mock him, he's a recently emancipated slave (who freed himself) just outside the gates of Meereen, scheming to seize control of the Second Sons.

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1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't know but it's strange that Ned went straight for Starfall (the seat of House Dayne) immediately after leaving the Tower of Joy? Why would he go there? The Martells are the rulers of Dorne and they are based in Sunspear. Why go to Starfall?

Because he brought Arthur's sword to Ashara. Supposedly Ned's a man of honor and he was able to defeat Arthur somehow and he gave Howland credit for helping him...which sounds like it made Ned feel a little bit ashamed of his win.

I'm one of those people that believe Ashara is Jon's mother and that Ned is his real father. I also believe Ashara is not dead. I think she's living in her father's house as Wylla - an existence very similar to how Sansa is disguised as Littlefinger's daughter Alayne.

If Ashara is indeed Jon's mother and Ned didn't marry her, then her prospects for marriage were about as good as Lollys Stokeworth, if you recall how well THAT went. Ashara probably couldn't bear the thought of marrying some jumped up sellsword due to her loss of maidenhead. She faked her death and assumed the Wylla identity and Ned knew about it. He probably helped her push someone off of the Sandstone Tower much like Littlefinger helped Sansa push Lysa out the Moon Door. When Robert asked the name of Jon's mother, technically Ned didn't lie.

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4 hours ago, Melifeather said:

In my analysis of the titled chapters I found many parallels could be drawn between Areo Hotah and Ser Gregor Clegane. I anticipate Areo will repeat things that Gregor has done in the past. Robert's Rebellion pitted 5 houses against 2: Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon, and Lannister, against Targaryen and Martell. The Lannisters (the Stranger of the 7) played both sides, only choosing the rebels once it became clear that they could win.

The Martells are seeking yet again to ally themselves with house Targaryen by sending Quentyn to Danaerys, as well as "the Roynar" by sending Arianne to Young Griff. All the while sending an envoy to Kings Landing to serve on the Small Council. But just like Tywin, Doran seeks to play both sides, because he is unsure who will win. Doran seems to be repeating Tywin's role in the Rebellion, and Areo could very well serve Doran in the same capacity as Gregor did - carrying out attacks and generally killing without mercy. Gregor famously tore an infant from Elia's arms and dashed his head against a wall. Will Areo show up after Arianne to save Young Griff during a sack of a city? Or if Young Griff really is Rhaegar's son Aegon, maybe Areo will be the one to actually carry out the dashing of his head against a wall? Its all speculation of course, but its something to think about.

Not sure what Hotah/Sandor parallels you found.  The ones I can think of are that both serve as bodyguards, both are skilled warriors, and both are defined by loyalty.  Hotah's loyalty is defined by his oaths, which Sandor rejects.  However, these are different oaths, without, as far as we know, any of the higher ideals that defines the Westerosi Knight (which Sandor also rejected, at least before his "death").

Hotah's role is that of one extra set of ears too many.  Doran dispenses information on a need-to-know basis, and since there are things that Hotah does not need to know, there are things Hotah does not hear.  Hotah is a mechanism for telling the readers what is going on, without telling them what is REALLY going on.  Hotah is a simple man, who has not understood or analyzed the clues GRRM fed us through his POV.  He allows GRRM to set readers up for a surprise.

My guess is that, when Hotah finds out some of the things he does not know, that will be when he dies. 

Doran is not playing both sides any more.  He believes war is upon him, and is scrambling for allies, and setting up surprise attacks, so the war starts on his terms.  He has not sent an envoy to serve on the council.  That's just a pretext.  He has sent an assassin to kill.

The supposed expedition to capture Darkstar is actually another of these surprise attacks.  But Hotah may not be among those who are "in the know".

 

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1 minute ago, Gilbert Green said:

Not sure what Hotah/Sandor parallels you found.  The ones I can think of are that both serve as bodyguards, both are skilled warriors, and both are defined by loyalty.  Hotah's loyalty is defined by his oaths, which Sandor rejects.  However, these are different oaths, without, as far as we know, any of the higher ideals that defines the Westerosi Knight (which Sandor also rejected, at least before his "death").

Hotah's role is that of one extra set of ears too many.  Doran dispenses information on a need-to-know basis, and since there are things that Hotah does not need to know, there are things Hotah does not hear.  Hotah is a mechanism for telling the readers what is going on, without telling them what is REALLY going on.  Hotah is a simple man, who has not understood or analyzed the clues GRRM fed us through his POV.  He allows GRRM to set readers up for a surprise.

My guess is that, when Hotah finds out some of the things he does not know, that will be when he dies. 

Doran is not playing both sides any more.  He believes war is upon him, and is scrambling for allies, and setting up surprise attacks, so the war starts on his terms.  He has not sent an envoy to serve on the council.  That's just a pretext.  He has sent an assassin to kill.

The supposed expedition to capture Darkstar is actually another of these surprise attacks.  But Hotah may not be among those who are "in the know".

 

In AFFC chapter 2, Captain of Guards, we can can discern some glimmers from the past with regards to Tywin and Gregor Clegane, but it is laid out very symbolically. You may not agree with my interpretations, but I think some people may get an idea of how I see the comparisons once I lay them out. 

The chapter starts out describing overripe blood oranges and Doran's painful gouty limbs. IMO these are symbolic of Doran's hesitation to act on his plans to the point that when he does finally act, he's too late. His "fruits" have ripened and fallen on the ground rotten, and he's suppressed his own emotions to the point that they have physically manifested in his joints.

Areo Hotah's physical description is as formidable as Gregor's. He's an astonishing 8 feet tall, weighs 30 stone (420 lbs) with massive shoulders and arms like tree trunks which give him the strength to wield a 6ft long great sword with just one hand. He has been known to cut people in half with a single blow.

When Areo takes note of the falling, over ripe fruit, he also hears the children in the Water Gardens splashing. Symbolically speaking, I think the bursting fruit and water splashing are intended to evoke the two families that Tywin extinguished: the Tarbecks and the Reynes. Gregor Clegane would have been with Tywin when those families were destroyed.

I don't wish to derail this thread so if you want to read more about the parallels and my interpretations of the symbolism in this particular chapter, here is a link

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17 hours ago, Melifeather said:

The chapter starts out describing overripe blood oranges and Doran's painful gouty limbs. IMO these are symbolic of Doran's hesitation to act on his plans to the point that when he does finally act, he's too late. His "fruits" have ripened and fallen on the ground rotten, and he's suppressed his own emotions to the point that they have physically manifested in his joints.

Doran's plans of bloody vengeance are over-ripe, and about to go SPLAT, like the blood oranges.  Which means that alot of people, sadly, are about to go SPLAT.

His gout is merely gout.  It is a distraction to make him seem sympathetic and "weak".  When he winces at the mention of murdering children, it is supposed to be ambiguous whether he is wincing in pain from gout, or because he is horrified at the murder of children.  The answer, I think, is sadly the former. 

17 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Areo Hotah's physical description is as formidable as Gregor's. He's an astonishing 8 feet tall, weighs 30 stone (420 lbs) with massive shoulders and arms like tree trunks which give him the strength to wield a 6ft long great sword with just one hand. He has been known to cut people in half with a single blow.

That's true of Gregor.  If any of it is true of Hotah, it is news to me.

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17 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't know but it's strange that Ned went straight for Starfall (the seat of House Dayne) immediately after leaving the Tower of Joy? Why would he go there? The Martells are the rulers of Dorne and they are based in Sunspear. Why go to Starfall?

In Deep Geek has a good video about it:

 

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On 12/12/2022 at 6:48 PM, Brother Seamus said:

and i don't think the whole thing with Jon dying, warging into ghost, and then being restored to his magically revived body will happen. it's just too goofy, too fan-fic-ish, and we have too many people magically coming back to life already. if people keep getting resurrected, getting killed loses its meaning. and it's unnecessary. he can just be gravely injured, in a coma, and heal and then wake up after the mid-point of the book.

Jon isn't even injured.  His final scene involves a warged Karstark glamored by Mel.  There will be complications, though.  Karstark, still glamored, will be revived as an undead Nights Watch commander.

Jon took Mel's warnings seriously as soon as he read the Pink Letter.  If the Pink Letter was forged, it was probably forged by Mel for that very purpose.  So Jon consulted with Mel, and they took precautions, off-page.

On 12/12/2022 at 6:48 PM, Brother Seamus said:

i agree I have no idea what Hotah is doing or why he's there so I have no real sense how many chapters this will be. but again whatever it is, the whole dark star thing, is a sideshow.

Darkstar's forces and Obara's forces will unite to massacre Balon's forces, on Doran's top-secret orders.  Hotah is probably not in the know, so he may die defending Balon.

On 12/12/2022 at 6:48 PM, Brother Seamus said:

let's put it this way, if GRRM is going to continue leading his characters around on these sideshow subplots,  like he did for affc and dwd, he'll need four more books, not two.

When I form theories, I try asking myself: how will this advance the story?

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