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The winds of winter predictions 2.0


Daenerysthegreat
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13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

But the Baratheons aren't the ancien regime, the Targaryens are. I can understand Jon Con and the Sand snakes wanting to pursue that course of action but I don't think the faith would back them.

And the Smallfolk in the city love Margaery.

Mobs are fickle.  There will be a huge number of Dornish in the city, all out for revenge.  

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9 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I’ve thought on it and 5 chapters are too less for arya to cover her track completely, so I’m giving her more 5 chapters.

Volume 2 

pov- Davos-17 chapters, Asha-17 chapters, Sansa-17 chapters, Bran-10 Chapters, Melisandre- 10 chapters, Jaime- 5 Chapters, Brienne- 13 Chapters, Cersei-2 Chapters, Tyene- 1 Chapter, Arianne- 2 Chapters

1) The North

2) Beyond the Wall

3)The Vale

4) Stoneheart

5)The Second Sack(the remaining part)

Volume 3

Pov- Dany- 17 Chapters, Barristan- 15 chapters, Victarion- 10 chapters, Tyrion-5 chapters, Arya-10 chapters.

1)The East

2)Braavos

So what does evertone think @Nevets @The Lord of the Crossing @SeanF @Aldarion  @King_Hodor_the_Short

1. Way too many chapters - again.  In Dance, each chapter was an average of 13 pages, not 5, and the preview chapters are about the same.  Cut your numbers in half, and you will be in the ballpark. 

Also, we are not getting 3 volumes.  I think it will wind up being 2, but they will be short, roughly a total of 90-110 chapters total.  He is also not going to split books by location.  He did that with Feast and Dance and it was not popular.

2. It is unlikely he will add POVs.  If so, it will be for coverage, and they will be limited in scope, like Barristan at the end of Dance.

3.  I expect the main action to move toward the North.  Hence the title Winds of Winter.  So characters like Sansa and Arya will head that way, and KL and the Riverlands will become a bit less important than they have been.  Essos will get bulked up as well, with Dany and Tyrion preparing to head west and eventually doing so.

Edited by Nevets
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My proposed chapter numbers for each character:

Daenerys 10; Tyrion 9; Jon Snow 9; Arya 9; Sansa 8; Bran 7.

Cersei 7; Davos 5; Samwell 5; Brienne 4; Theon 3; Jamie 2.

Arianne 4; Asha 4; Barristan 4; Victarion 4; Melisandre 3; Aeron 3; Jon Connington 2; Areo Hotah 2.

Total is 104 plus prologue and maybe epilogue gives 105-106, which fits into two books the same length as Feast.  I tried to do one volume but couldn't get below 92, which is too many for one book.  Too many characters and stories to deal with.

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13 hours ago, Nevets said:

My proposed chapter numbers for each character:

Daenerys 10; Tyrion 9; Jon Snow 9; Arya 9; Sansa 8; Bran 7.

Cersei 7; Davos 5; Samwell 5; Brienne 4; Theon 3; Jamie 2.

Arianne 4; Asha 4; Barristan 4; Victarion 4; Melisandre 3; Aeron 3; Jon Connington 2; Areo Hotah 2.

Total is 104 plus prologue and maybe epilogue gives 105-106, which fits into two books the same length as Feast.  I tried to do one volume but couldn't get below 92, which is too many for one book.  Too many characters and stories to deal with.

Why does Melisandre, one of the main characters, get only three chapters?

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20 hours ago, Nevets said:

1. Way too many chapters - again.  In Dance, each chapter was an average of 13 pages, not 5, and the preview chapters are about the same.  Cut your numbers in half, and you will be in the ballpark. 

Also, we are not getting 3 volumes.  I think it will wind up being 2, but they will be short, roughly a total of 90-110 chapters total.  He is also not going to split books by location.  He did that with Feast and Dance and it was not popular.

2. It is unlikely he will add POVs.  If so, it will be for coverage, and they will be limited in scope, like Barristan at the end of Dance.

3.  I expect the main action to move toward the North.  Hence the title Winds of Winter.  So characters like Sansa and Arya will head that way, and KL and the Riverlands will become a bit less important than they have been.  Essos will get bulked up as well, with Dany and Tyrion preparing to head west and eventually doing so.

1)I scrapped that 5 page thing, we are going with the usual book pages.  We might get three volumes. These books cam be divided on basis of location, as they aren’t being written on the basis of popularity. The author is doing us a favour by continuing writing the series at all.

2) Again, different viewpoints 

3) We need some time to resolve the conflicts in the south before moving north, besides I gave 20 chapters for the beyond the wall, some people aren’t even hoping for 5.

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9 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Why does Melisandre, one of the main characters, get only three chapters?

Melisandre is not one of the main characters.  She is a secondary character; supporting cast of you will.  She is there to support and move along the stories of main characters, in this case Stannis and Jon Snow. Her chapters will probably be to cover the Wall while Jon is out of commission. 

My numbers are guesses.  She could get more, but if she has more than five I will be shocked.

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Just now, BalerionTheCat said:

Have you a link to this "things online suggesting that Melisandre will be used because Jon will no longer be a POV."?

I was confused about why you were stressing the word 'guess'. Everything is a guess until the next book comes out, though some are more probable than others.

It was something I read elsewhere or on another site I think. Nothing official, just someone else talking about what they thought might happen and why. I don't think I saved the link, if you want I can go have a look for it.

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My predictions for chapter counts in The Winds of Winter.

  1. Bran Stark - 8
  2. Daenerys Targaryen - 10
  3. Jon Snow - 3 (as Ghost, after which he'll disappear)
  4. Melisandre - 6
  5. Victarion Greyjoy - 5
  6. Tyrion Lannister - 8
  7. Arya Stark - 8
  8. Theon Greyjoy - 4
  9. Areo Hotah - 3
  10. Davos Seaworth - 5
  11. Jon Connington - 4
  12. Cersei Lannister - 7
  13. Sansa Stark - 9
  14. Aeron Greyjoy - 2
  15. Brienne Tarth - 4
  16. Arianne Martell - 5
  17. Barristan Selmy - 4
  18. Jaime Lannister - 6
  19. Asha Greyjoy - 4
  20. Samwell Tarly - 5

Including the prologue and the epilogue, it's at 113...It's going to be GRRM's largest book thus far. I think A Dream of Spring might be just as long if not longer but there's still a good chance that A Dream of Spring will be more along the lines of A Storm of Swords in length.

The Winds of Winter has to be this long because it has to finish the plotlines from A Dance with Dragons. It'll have to be issued in two volumes. If so, it might need a prologue and epilogue for each volume.

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  • 1 month later...
On 10/23/2022 at 5:02 PM, BlackLightning said:

My predictions for chapter counts in The Winds of Winter.

 

113 chapters and 20 povs is alot.  You seem to be taking an "everything for every fan" approach.  I will take a different approach.  We will maybe see in the end which is closer to the truth.

I'm not brave enough to predict chapter counts per POV, but I am brave enough to tentatively predict POVs.  I make three main assumptions.  First, that things GRRM says are likely true until proven otherwise, even if GRRM is himself being very tentative.  Second, that when GRRM talks in his NAB about "visiting with" characters, this is typically a reference to a POV chapter for that person.  Thirdly, that any references to POV counts do not include prologue and/or epilogue one-offs.

I do not claim this approach is infallible.  But if we accept everything GRRM says as true, I find that all of  his public statements are reconcilable with each other.  And lead to the following conclusions.

WINDS will contain 13 POVs (*1), not counting prologue and epilogue.  These either are, or will be labelled (**), as follows:

1 - Tyrion - confirmed (sample chapter)
2 - Arya - confirmed (sample chapter)
3 - Sansa - confirmed (sample chapter)
4 - Victarion - confirmed (sample chapter)
5 - Barristan - confirmed (sample chapter)
6 - Theon - confirmed (sample chapter)
7 - Aeron - confirmed (sample chapter)
8 - Arianne - confirmed (sample chapter)
9 - Cersei - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
10 - Hotah - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
11 - Asha - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
12 - Melisandre - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
13 - Samwell - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)

However, GRRM has also said, without referencing WINDS, that he has about 16 POVs remaining (*3).  This can be reconciled with the 13 POVs in WINDS reference by assuming that 3 POVs will go on a book-long hiatus without actually being discontinued.

Here, then, are a complete list of the remaining POVs from FEAST/DANCE with a brief note as to why they might not appear as POVs in the next volume.  I express, at this time, no opinion as to which ones are actually dead, and which ones will eventually be returning.  Note that some characters that don't appear as POVs might still appear, or seem to appear, as characters.

1 - Jon Snow - Stabbed, seemingly to death.
2 - Bran - Bonded with weirwood network; loses self.
3 - Dany - Bonded with Drogon; loses self.
4 - Jon Connington - POV will no longer be needed after Arianne meets Aegon.
5 - Davos - Vanished to Skagos, setting up a later surprise.
6 - Brienne - Hanged or near hanged; maybe turned wight.
7 - Jaime - Lured into a death-trap & disappeared.
8 - Quentyn - flamed by Rhaegal.
9 - Arys - Cut down by Hotah.

-------------------------------------------------------------x

CITED SOURCES
(*1) Statement to Le Nouvel Observateur in July 2014.
(*2) Various NAB entries that reference visiting or spending time with named characters, including an entry on 7/23/20 (Cersei, Asha, Hotah); and an entry on 8/15/20 ("Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty").
(*3) Interview on 7/23/13 (“I could introduce a Dothraki viewpoint character, but I already have like sixteen viewpoint characters.”)

** The reason for this caveat is that I don't want to rule out that we will have a tricksy faceless person POV, where the faceless persona is named, Arya-style (etc.), after the persona adopted.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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I assume we will loose many of the povs, as many people are getting into the same places. Jon Con is dead, Arianne will replace him. There are 4 povs near Mereen, Barristan and Victarion will probably soon die. Jon will be ressurected, but I don't think we will see his perspective again, we've had Mellisandre pov for a reason. I believe that Brienne will somehow die, probably saving Jaime (like sacrifising in trial by combat). Auren is already dead. Greyjoy sibling are not in the best spot, one of them won't get out of this. So we have 12 povs left: Bran, Arya, Sansa, Tyrion, Daenerys, Cersei, Samwell, Davos, Arianne, Melisandre, Areo and one of Greyjoys. The rest will but cut off after few chapters.

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On 11/25/2022 at 1:33 PM, Gilbert Green said:

113 chapters and 20 povs is alot.  You seem to be taking an "everything for every fan" approach.  I will take a different approach.  We will maybe see in the end which is closer to the truth.

I'm not brave enough to predict chapter counts per POV, but I am brave enough to tentatively predict POVs.  I make three main assumptions.  First, that things GRRM says are likely true until proven otherwise, even if GRRM is himself being very tentative.  Second, that when GRRM talks in his NAB about "visiting with" characters, this is typically a reference to a POV chapter for that person.  Thirdly, that any references to POV counts do not include prologue and/or epilogue one-offs.

I do not claim this approach is infallible.  But if we accept everything GRRM says as true, I find that all of  his public statements are reconcilable with each other.  And lead to the following conclusions.

WINDS will contain 13 POVs (*1), not counting prologue and epilogue.  These either are, or will be labelled (**), as follows:

1 - Tyrion - confirmed (sample chapter)
2 - Arya - confirmed (sample chapter)
3 - Sansa - confirmed (sample chapter)
4 - Victarion - confirmed (sample chapter)
5 - Barristan - confirmed (sample chapter)
6 - Theon - confirmed (sample chapter)
7 - Aeron - confirmed (sample chapter)
8 - Arianne - confirmed (sample chapter)
9 - Cersei - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
10 - Hotah - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
11 - Asha - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
12 - Melisandre - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)
13 - Samwell - semi-confirmed (NAB hints) (*2)

However, GRRM has also said, without referencing WINDS, that he has about 16 POVs remaining (*3).  This can be reconciled with the 13 POVs in WINDS reference by assuming that 3 POVs will go on a book-long hiatus without actually being discontinued.

Here, then, are a complete list of the remaining POVs from FEAST/DANCE with a brief note as to why they might not appear as POVs in the next volume.  I express, at this time, no opinion as to which ones are actually dead, and which ones will eventually be returning.  Note that some characters that don't appear as POVs might still appear, or seem to appear, as characters.

1 - Jon Snow - Stabbed, seemingly to death.
2 - Bran - Bonded with weirwood network; loses self.
3 - Dany - Bonded with Drogon; loses self.
4 - Jon Connington - POV will no longer be needed after Arianne meets Aegon.
5 - Davos - Vanished to Skagos, setting up a later surprise.
6 - Brienne - Hanged or near hanged; maybe turned wight.
7 - Jaime - Lured into a death-trap & disappeared.
8 - Quentyn - flamed by Rhaegal.
9 - Arys - Cut down by Hotah.

-------------------------------------------------------------x

CITED SOURCES
(*1) Statement to Le Nouvel Observateur in July 2014.
(*2) Various NAB entries that reference visiting or spending time with named characters, including an entry on 7/23/20 (Cersei, Asha, Hotah); and an entry on 8/15/20 ("Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty").
(*3) Interview on 7/23/13 (“I could introduce a Dothraki viewpoint character, but I already have like sixteen viewpoint characters.”)

** The reason for this caveat is that I don't want to rule out that we will have a tricksy faceless person POV, where the faceless persona is named, Arya-style (etc.), after the persona adopted.

I'm not buying the whole 13 POV idea.  His statement in the interview is unclear and vague, and subject to interpretation, and that's without considering any translation issues.

He is commenting that his POV count has increased greatly.  He says he had seven in the first book (actually eight), but now has 13 in the beginning of this one but fewer by the end.  Nothing about the middle.  I find it very unclear and imprecise.

It also makes the story incoherent and full of gaps.  I don't think anyone seriously believes Daenerys or Bran won't appear, and I can't see him killing characters like Brienne or Jaime off page.  Jon Connington is expendable, and if Jaime dies soon (I doubt Brienne dies early; she got too much build up in AFFC) Brienne can cover it.  John Snow could disappear as a POV, but I'm not convinced he is even dead.

He could have fewer than 13 POVs by the end.  People could die, or no longer be active POVs.  The Stark kids, Tyrion, and Dany are the only ones I'm convinced will make it all the way to the end of TWOW.

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GRRM has pretty much confirmed that Bran will have chapters in the new book. On his most recent book tour, he mentioned that he has a very hard time writing Bran chapters and they're causing him the most difficulty in the book.

https://winteriscoming.net/2022/11/02/george-rr-martin-struggling-bran-chapters-the-winds-of-winter/

Edited by sifth
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1 hour ago, sifth said:

GRRM has pretty much confirmed that Bran will have chapters in the new book. On his most recent book tour, he mentioned that he has a very hard time writing Bran chapters and they're causing him the most difficulty in the book.

https://winteriscoming.net/2022/11/02/george-rr-martin-struggling-bran-chapters-the-winds-of-winter/

When I first read these words, my first thought was "Pfft, he's been saying that for 2 decades, and it has nothing specifically to do with Winds."  So I listened to the video, and it seemed at first that I was right.  Most of that Q&A was a reference to previously published material.

But then, at the very end, starting at 4:39 in the video, he throws in, apparently in reference to Bran chapters:  "... and I am still struggling with the new ones that are in the Winds of Winter ...

So fair enough.  I must count Bran as at least semi-confirmed, and revise my prediction accordingly.  In fact, I think Bran now gets precedence over Sam and Mel, and perhaps even Asha.

Thank you for the link.

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3 hours ago, Nevets said:

I'm not buying the whole 13 POV idea.  His statement in the interview is unclear and vague, and subject to interpretation, and that's without considering any translation issues.

All of us are only guessing.  In the meantime, I explained my methodology - to take seriously what GRRM says.  Obviously, I would prefer original words to the translation.  But, in the absence of a contradiction, the translation will do.  If there were a conflict, I might prefer an original statement over a translated statement, or an actual video over a quote, etc. etc.  But I face no such dilemma here.

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

He is commenting that his POV count has increased greatly.  He says he had seven in the first book (actually eight), but now has 13 in the beginning of this one but fewer by the end.  Nothing about the middle.  I find it very unclear and imprecise.

AGOT had 8 POVs, but 7 by the end.   He tells Le Nouvel Observateur that WINDS has 13 povs; fewer by the end . This is not that difficult to understand.  

Is it infallible?  No.  Is it the information we have?  Yes.

When 14 POVs are definitely confirmed, I will be happy to conclude that the quote from Le Nouvel Observateur was somehow wrong.   And that might happen.  But it has not happened yet.

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

It also makes the story incoherent and full of gaps. 

We can critique the story when we actually read it.

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

I don't think anyone seriously believes Daenerys or Bran won't appear, and I can't see him killing characters like Brienne or Jaime off page. 

All these things seem plausible to me.  I now believe Bran will be in the book as POVs because GRRM now appears to have said so.  I will do the same for Dany or Brienne or Jaime, if he confirms their POVs as well.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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