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UK Politics - Closing Down Sale


Derfel Cadarn
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6 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

 

 

 

In 1997 the election result was Labour 43%, Tories 31%, Lib Dems 17% and Labour got 418 seats, Tories 165 seats, and Lib Dems 46 seats. If the results from that poll hold up through the next election, is there even a Conservative party anymore? How many seats would they have? Less than 100? Does Labour break 500 seats?

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Are those kinds of numbers basically unprecedented in the UK?  In Trump's very worst polls (right around the failure to repeal the health care bill) he was polling at ~30% approval, and the "generic ballot" of Republicans vs Democrats was never a 30 point spread, even on outlier polls.

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3 minutes ago, Fez said:

 

In 1997 the election result was Labour 43%, Tories 31%, Lib Dems 17% and Labour got 418 seats, Tories 165 seats, and Lib Dems 46 seats. If the results from that poll hold up through the next election, is there even a Conservative party anymore? How many seats would they have? Less than 100? Does Labour break 500 seats?

Less than 100 - yes.

Over 500 - not quite

 

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2 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

I imagine there'll be projections that have a few seats either way, but at the end of the day the precise details are almost irrelevant coz that's a party-extinction event. 

It certainly would give at least 2 election cycles to turn the titanic back around. 

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22 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

It certainly would give at least 2 election cycles to turn the titanic back around. 

Depends on who retains their seat and becomes party leader.

JRM or one of those clowns. Then it might take a good while longer.

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Are those kinds of numbers basically unprecedented in the UK?  In Trump's very worst polls (right around the failure to repeal the health care bill) he was polling at ~30% approval, and the "generic ballot" of Republicans vs Democrats was never a 30 point spread, even on outlier polls.

Theresa May's Tories polled as low as 17% during mid-2019 in the middle of their Brexit meltdown, although Labour weren't polling much better at the time.

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3 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

what is depressing about that, I live in one of the Blue Bits...... wankers.

Me too :(

 

  

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Depends on who retains their seat and becomes party leader.

JRM or one of those clowns. Then it might take a good while longer.

Isn't BANES yellow there?

Edited by Which Tyler
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One thing that poll ensures is that there will not be a back bench revolt and the Tories will see out this term. Too many noses will be yanked out of the trough for any Tory to be willing to pull the trigger on forcing an election any earlier than absolutely necessary. The question is how long Truss lasts. The sooner they are rid of her the sooner they can try to get another PM and chancellor to try to get the con back on track and regain enough support to at least be a substantial opposition (I guess meaning having a lot more MPs than the combined total of all other opposition parties).

2 years is still a long time, and it may be long enough to start being able to con the electorate again, and to make it harder for poor people to vote.

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5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The sooner they are rid of her the sooner they can try to get another PM and chancellor to try to get the con back on track

I wonder if this would even help at this juncture.

If they’re rapidly ousting pms it can appear as if they don’t have competent candidates to offer.

Edited by Varysblackfyre321
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6 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

2 years is still a long time, and it may be long enough to start being able to con the electorate again, and to make it harder for poor people to vote.

Also yes and plenty of time to lean into nonsense culture war issues to distract from their incompetence, corruption, and cruelty.

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2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I wonder if this would even help at this juncture.

If they’re rapidly ousting pms it can appear as if they don’t have competent candidates to offer.

appear as if?

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