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Doran Martell - All Bark and no Bite?


Craving Peaches
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Few things I can think of that he did were getting oberyn to poison tywin and making Gregor publicly confess his crimes to the lords of the realm (making tywin look bad) of raping and murdering Elia and her baby....but this took almost 17 years ??? What did doran do in the meantime other than the ariane viserys pact?

Edited by Tyrosh Lannister
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1 hour ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Few things I can think of that he did were getting oberyn to poison tywin

There's some evidence, but no confirmation whether Oberyn was poisoning Tywin or not. And even if he was it doesn't matter because Tyrion killed him quickly with a crossbow. So the likely intended effect of the poisoning, to cause long term pain, failed.

1 hour ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

making Gregor publicly confess his crimes to the lords of the realm (making tywin look bad) of raping and murdering Elia and her baby

Oberyn did that but there's no way to tell if Doran planned on this or not. I think it was a waste of his life to be honest, everyone who mattered knew who really did the deed, all it does it state it out loud, Tywin already had a bad reputation from the sack.

1 hour ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

.but this took almost 17 years ??? What did doran do in the meantime other than the ariane viserys pact?

This is what I want to know. If he did intend Oberyn to do those things well it took them both 17 years to come up with this rash, flawed and luck-dependant plan...

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18 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I can't really understand why they can justify killing Tommen though. I mean he is a sweet and innocent child who has done nothing to them.

 

I'm not saying their actions are justified. They are cleary vile people, but at the very least it makes sense from a pragmatical point.

Cersei is the power behind the throne and she uses Tommen as the puppet for her actions. You kill him, Cersei has no legitimacy on the throne, the Tyrell alliance is broken down, Cersei becomes isoleted and vunerable.

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48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Cersei is the power behind the throne and she uses Tommen as the puppet for her actions. You kill him, Cersei has no legitimacy on the throne, the Tyrell alliance is broken down, Cersei becomes isoleted and vunerable.

It makes sense from that perspective but I don't think the Sand Snakes themselves think of it like that, they see it in terms of getting revenge for Oberyn and it being justified because of that which I don't really get...

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18 hours ago, Ring3r said:

I do not see where Dorne's story is going.  Clearly GRRM has something planned....Dawn is there and Emostar is being set up for SOME reason.  The Tower of Joy was there and that's hugely important.  Dorne has to be included for SOME reason but I don't see it yet.  The only thing I can think of is that Dorne might make a decent place for Dany to make first-landing, rather than Dragonstone.  The desert and mountains isolate it and would let her form a base of power from which to project her dragons without interference from anyone's navy.  But there's zero indication that Doran has any such intention, and it'd make it really hard for her to reach the North, which she's going to have to do.

I agree. I think that while Dany will take possession of Dragonstone and spend a lot of time there, I think that most of her armies will begin in Dorne.

I think that there is going to be an enormous naval battle in the Stepstones and that most of Dany's forces will be forced to make an emergency landing in Dorne.

Yes, it would make it very hard for her to reach the North. But I think that might be the point.

 

Frankly, I think that House Dayne knows the truth about Rhaegar's plans and Jon's heritage and that they have been sitting on the truth for years. Maybe they are collectively plotting to make some move. Or maybe the Darkstar is at the "fuck it, I'm going for it" stage.

I think the point of Areo's storyline (besides giving us a really cool battle between Obara, Hotah, Darkstar, Balon and maybe even Ned Dayne) is to reveal that R+L=J, that Jon is the song of ice and fire (aka the rightful King of Westeros and the savior of humanity) and about the Long Night. Basically, I think the big R+L=J revelation is going to be shown in a series of Sam, Bran and Areo chapters.

Areo's chapters might just unveil a lot of the magic and history of House Dayne and Dorne's role in the last Long Night as the so-called "Empty Land." We also never found out what happened at Starfall which Ned Stark immediately visited after the Tower of Joy...I think Areo's chapter will fill in the gaps. Sam's revelatory chapter would focus more on the documentation of the marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna, the agreement that Rhaegar and Elia had and how Brandon and Aerys II ruined it. Bran's revelatory chapter would be a lot more emotionally intense (Jon is his family and they grew up together...and he has such a sweet image of his father), more focused on the Long Night and the magical properties of Stark-Targaryen blood.

That way, if Sansa does accidentally blabs about Jon's heritage to a messy gossip (i.e. Myranda Royce) after previously swearing secrecy, will it really matter? Half of the realm will already know about it.

If one (or all) of the Daynes run their mouth, then it gives Dorne a very good reason to pull the rug out from under Aegon and make things very difficult for him and Dany. Which is fitting since giving the Targaryens and their followers a hard time is something that Dorne is very good at.

Soon we will have chaos all over Westeros. Violent unrest within Dorne, the Others overrunning northern Westeros, Euron Greyjoy's reign of terror in the southwest, a mini-gresycale epidemic in King's Landing, natural disasters in the Vale (between the earthquake that will be caused by the fall of the Wall and all of the snow packing on, I think part or all of the Giant's Lance will fall), mass starvation everywhere, Faceless Men lurking about power bases seeking information, dead people getting up and trying to kill the living, Children of the Forest popping back up, religious warfare

17 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

There was a theory I liked about what would happen there in the next book. Obara and Hotah would accompany Balon Swann to hunt down Darkstar as the death of Ser Arys would be pinned on him (not to mention his attack on Myrcella). Hotah would have secret orders to kill Balon. When they got there Darkstar would tell Balon what really happened with Arys and how Hotah was going to kill him. Then they would team up and it would be Balon and Darkstar Vs Hotah and Obara.

 

 

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Doran Martell is angry, he's in pain, and he's confined.  That would make any man plot.  And plot.  And plot endlessly.  Planning and then execution of the plan are important.  It's the execution where he has trouble.  He has a lot in common with Arya except she executes her plan.  Sick with anger and pain they plot.  Arya carries out her murderous plot.  Doran dreams about his.  

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I think the stuff he told Arianne and the Sand Snakes, that he worked with Oberyn and his plans for vengeance, is bullshit and that his actual policy is like house Swan's, to keep Dorne out of the war as much as possible and have a foot in each camp.

The reason he says otherwise is that he doesn't have the political clout to control Oberyn, Arianne and the Sand Snakes directly.

Edited by The Sleeper
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1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

to keep Dorne out of the war as much as possible and have a foot in each camp.

How can he continue to do this any longer though? Everyone in Dorne except him seems to be out for blood. Especially when they hear word of Aegon, maintaining his neutral no-war stance is going to be very hard. The smallfolk and the nobles all seem to want war, the rest of his family wants war. There was already a lot unrest about it. If he continues to just sit there, there could be an uprising or something...

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51 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

How can he continue to do this any longer though? Everyone in Dorne except him seems to be out for blood. Especially when they hear word of Aegon, maintaining his neutral no-war stance is going to be very hard. The smallfolk and the nobles all seem to want war, the rest of his family wants war. There was already a lot unrest about it. If he continues to just sit there, there could be an uprising or something...

Ideally, he would want to be on the winning side without having Dorne involved in any of the fighting. I do agree that there will come a point where either he will be able to keep out, or it will be as dangerous or more to stay neutral than to get involved. 

Quentyn might have screwed him in that regard and Arianne is set up to complete what he started. 

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On 10/1/2022 at 12:05 PM, Craving Peaches said:

I just don't understand what his 'winning' would look like if it were to happen, because he can't achieve both his goals.

The magic of the author’s pen. Or keyboard. 
 

See, to me, patience is good virtue. Self control and good planning are good. But over-thinking things can also lead to bad decisions. There is an appropriate level of caution where too little or too much leads to failure. There has to be risk before the reward. Doran wants the reward without taking the risk. There’s risk in opening a business and investing. 

King Viserys III is within reason to question Doran’s loyalty, if he had lived. Not that it would matter because Arianne was his best option.  A truly loyal man might have sent gold to help his king and princess. 

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On 10/3/2022 at 10:49 AM, Moiraine Sedai said:

See, to me, patience is good virtue. Self control and good planning are good. But over-thinking things can also lead to bad decisions. There is an appropriate level of caution where too little or too much leads to failure. There has to be risk before the reward. Doran wants the reward without taking the risk. There’s risk in opening a business and investing. 

King Viserys III is within reason to question Doran’s loyalty, if he had lived. Not that it would matter because Arianne was his best option.  A truly loyal man might have sent gold to help his king and princess. 

The problem with Doran is that he doesn't take any steps to protect his investments; Viserys is left out to dry when Doran could have helped him, if only to make sure Viserys doesn't abuse Arianne. He does almost nothing to help Quentyn when he sends him to court Daenerys; if her victories in Slavers' Bay were so widely known, why would Doran have known that Daenerys wasn't going to be moved by an awesome show of Dornish power. Even Oberyn understood image politics, more than Doran.

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Doran doesn't bark.  That's the point.  He is stealthy and weaves his plans in secret.  He is quiet like a spider and awaits for an opportunity.  He's passive and dependent on fortune.  Petyr Baelish makes his own fortune and capitalizes on it.  PB is more successful for now.  I do feel like Arriane will mess up Doran's plan and get the Martells in trouble. 

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14 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Doran doesn't bark.  That's the point.  He is stealthy and weaves his plans in secret.  He is quiet like a spider and awaits for an opportunity.  He's passive and dependent on fortune.  Petyr Baelish makes his own fortune and capitalizes on it.  PB is more successful for now.  I do feel like Arriane will mess up Doran's plan and get the Martells in trouble. 

More than Doran's plans are messed up right now?

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Robert and Tywin reigned and died with Dorne paying its taxes in time, even the Vale showed more teeth and  told Tywin to fuck off.  

Doran is every bit as useless and his family believes he is, not that his family is any less stupid. Doran has forced himself to a corner that leaves him with no other choice but to declare war on toddlers.

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

Robert and Tywin reigned and died with Dorne paying its taxes in time, even the Vale showed more teeth and  told Tywin to fuck off.  

Doran is every bit as useless and his family believes he is, not that his family is any less stupid. Doran has forced himself to a corner that leaves him with no other choice but to declare war on toddlers.

I agree, to a point.

I think it's incredibly important to remember what happened during and after Aegon's Conquest.  Dorn held out through multiple Targaryen monarchs, never bending the knee.  Their location and the terrain make them nearly impossible to conquer.  The more I think about it, the more I think Dany simply has to start there when she lands.  I think Blacklightning is right and there will be a major naval battle on the stepstones and Dany will have to occupy Dorne.  But Doran is clueless.  Whomever offers Dany asylum in Dorne, I think Doran will die first.

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5 hours ago, Ring3r said:

I agree, to a point.

I think it's incredibly important to remember what happened during and after Aegon's Conquest.  Dorn held out through multiple Targaryen monarchs, never bending the knee.  Their location and the terrain make them nearly impossible to conquer.  The more I think about it, the more I think Dany simply has to start there when she lands.  I think Blacklightning is right and there will be a major naval battle on the stepstones and Dany will have to occupy Dorne.  But Doran is clueless.  Whomever offers Dany asylum in Dorne, I think Doran will die first.

The Young Dragon proved that Dorne is very much beatable, neither Doran nor Barristan had any illusions of Dorne and the Martells surviving Robert's wrath.

Fact is, Dorne has no business in these wars the second Tywin died but Doran cannot back down now, he's being  forced to fight a pointless war and he's going to send his people to die for no good reason really.

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7 hours ago, frenin said:

Robert and Tywin reigned and died with Dorne paying its taxes in time, even the Vale showed more teeth and  told Tywin to fuck off.  

Doran is every bit as useless and his family believes he is, not that his family is any less stupid. Doran has forced himself to a corner that leaves him with no other choice but to declare war on toddlers.

It's stupid. I mean if he was really bothered he could have declared independence. If the Targaryens with dragons couldn't conquer an independent Dorne then....Yes some innocents may have died but far less than the casualties coming with his impending conflict with whoever. Independence war would be defensive and they'd have a home terrain advantage. Whatever he does now will be offensive. And he has to do something now because of his previous inaction, everyone is chomping at the bit to attack.

I used to think his family's claims were just an exaggeration but now I think they're right - not that it makes them any better or smarter.

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