Ukraine 21: On the Attack with a Giant Phallic Spear

[Which Tyler]

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-october-2-3

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The situation unfolds faster than I can comfortably verify information, so much of what I will say will be couched in this reality. In short, the Russian defensive line collapses in Kharkiv Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, and Kherson Oblast. There is little action in Zaporizhzhia oblast, and Donetsk oblast has had few changes.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

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ARTICLE CONTINUES

Same thing as a tweet thread, for those who prefer that

ETA:
Looks like this (and a few others) video confirm that the Kupyansk and Borova advances have met since AP posted that round-up (or confirmation came after his round-up):

Would pretty much confirm that Russia have withdrawn to the East side of the Zherebets - probably the rally point at Svatove

In Kherson, the Anrkhangelsk troops have expanded their area of control bother Eastwards and Southwards - again indicating that the Russian withdrawal to Mylove (or possibly yet Dudchany - I can't see why Russia would abandon that one - at least, not yet) is real, not misinformation.

 

[Which Tyler]

Davidy Brid's been liberated

 

Which makes the retreat along the Dnipro all the way to Mylove most realistic then (or even Beryslav - as suggested by Wert and queried by me yesterday) - no particular need to waste lives in Dudchany/Mylove if it's a supply route to... nowhere.

You'd think they'd still be good choke points to kill Ukrainians, but Russian morale I guess (of course, it would only be a holding action given that they've walked away from Davydiv Brid now).

 

So the next stop would be Beryslav - which looks essential, but not a naturally assisted defensive position - the next of those would be the Inhulets, just East of Kherson!
Break the line at Stanislav &/ Kyselivka, and that's got to be game over for the Russians in Kherson.

[Gorn]

Huge success for Ukraine, they basically liberated the entire northern third of the Russian-occupied area on that side of Dnipro. And they have a good chance to keep going - retreating to a new line of defense sounds easy on paper, but for that to succeed, you need to have reserves who will prepare the new defensive lines. Also, it is not easy to regroup and reorganize fleeing and demoralized soldiers who have the enemy right behind them.

[Corvinus85]

13 hours ago, KalVsWade said:

Oh good, I found this again. This is a long-form video that talks about the combined arms Ukraine was using, but the really amazing thing to me is how their commander used drone spotting to guide tanks absurdly precisely, in a way that reminded me eerily of playing command and conquer or starcraft.

Given the apparent youth of that commander, I would not be surprised if he played those games, too. Greatly popular in that part of the world, especially Starcraft.

[Maithanet]

My understanding is that if the Ukrainians take the east side of the Inhulets and the Nova Khokovka hydro crossing that the Russian position on the west side of the Inhulets (including Kherson) is basically cut off anyway.  They would be relying entirely on helicopters for resupply of over ten thousand of troops, as any other method would be under direct fire. 

Now, this comes with the caveat that taking Nova Khokovka will be hard, it can't really be outflanked and the Ukrainians are still a ways away anyway.  But the situation in Kherson is definitely showing progress. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

20 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

Given the apparent youth of that commander, I would not be surprised if he played those games, too. Greatly popular in that part of the world, especially Starcraft.

Pres. Zelensky: And what is this strategy called? 

Gen X-Millenial Commander: A 'zerg rush,' sir. 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Pres. Zelensky: And what is this strategy called? 

Gen X-Millenial Commander: A 'zerg rush,' sir. 

The Russians are the ones playing zerg.  The Ukrainians prefer blink stalker/dark templar.  Fewer losses and death by 1,000 cuts.  

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Russians are the ones playing zerg.  The Ukrainians prefer blink stalker/dark templar.  Fewer losses and death by 1,000 cuts.  

Pres. Zelensky: We must construct additional pylons. 

[Kalbear]

If we're talking starcraft Ukraine is either protoss with their reavers and carriers or Terran with siege tanks.

[Corvinus85]

4 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

If we're talking starcraft Ukraine is either protoss with their reavers and carriers or Terran with siege tanks.

They're protoss, as they're busy liberating their homeland, Aiur. But they got supplies from the Terrans (NATO) in the form of siege tanks (HIMARS). 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Wow… no Geeks (you know I’m in that set) here… 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

With the northern Kherson front collapsing - with new critical updates coming in nearly every hour - I'm curious about (a) whether Russia decides to withdraw forces back across the Dnipro and (b) what Ukraine's next step may be once they claim the territory north of the Dnipro. 

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

With the northern Kherson front collapsing - with new critical updates coming in nearly every hour - I'm curious about (a) whether Russia decides to withdraw forces back across the Dnipro and (b) what Ukraine's next step may be once they claim the territory north of the Dnipro. 

Crossing the Dnipro under fire is very difficult, so the logical thing to do is to dig in along the Dnipro and then switch the primary attack axis to the other side of the Dnipro in Zaporizhzhia and attack south-westwards to cut off the nuclear plant and S/SE towards Melitopol, where heavy insurgency activity is underway.

That puts the forces in Kherson Oblast under pressure from the NE and threatens them with being attacked from two fronts unless they retreat to Crimea.

If Kherson City falls, Putin will blow a gasket and I suspect that'll be when he tries something else to escalate.

[karaddin]

Given the way they've been handling things recently I wouldn't be surprised if they're already moving into position to do exactly that and hit those defensive lines while Russia is scrambling to reestablish their defensive line in Khearson oblast. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

46 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Pres. Zelensky: We must construct additional pylons. 

All the Ukrainians need to do is build an ungodly amount of Photon Cannons.

And jokes aside, recently I saw a prototype the U.S. military put out that kind of looked like a Protoss Carrier. The future is now!

[Werthead]

Peskov has publicly slapped down Kadyrov for urging the use of WMD in Ukraine, which I'm sure Kadyrov loved.

The Times has picked up the "nuclear train" story and tapped a source who has said that Russia may be considering a test firing of a tactical nuclear warhead in the Black Sea, whilst the Poseidon drone is test-fired in the Kara Sea. However, they do not believe an actual use in Ukraine is imminent. It does appear the mood music has changed since last week, when the reports were of Russia test-firing a missile onto Ukrainian soil or a direct conventional attack on a logistics hub in Europe, so, weirdly, it seems that this might be a climbdown from the previous positions, and would not necessarily trigger the kind of overwhelming conventional response that NATO members had been impressing on their Russian counterparts.

[Maithanet]

700k men is a huge number.  Even assuming that many of them will come back once they run out of money or get lonely (as happened back in February), that is still quite a shock to the Russian economy and society.  Presumably most of those men have some means, and thus are likely to be employed.  700k workers leaving in a couple weeks is a disaster. 

[Jace, Extat]

7 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Yeah, none of the examples listed are examples of what you're claiming.

 

Churchill lost because he ran a shit campaign - but Churchill was the war hero (from both world wars), and Atlee was a military nothingness. pre-war Churchill was pretty much the precise opposite of pre-war Zelenskyi

 

Truman didn't lose to Eisenhower.

 

Pompey lost battles to Caesar; but he wasn't the leader of Rome, whilst Caesar wasn't elected to replace him - his was a military coup, and Pompey the general brought out of retirement to face him.

Yeah man I already said I fucked that one up, not sure what else you want from me. 

I generally meant powerful generals = gain more power, not to imply that Caesar came back from Gaul to defeat Pompey at the ballot box. 

But I've long since punted on this issue

[Maithanet]

Thread about the how the Russian position north of the Dnipro is collapsing and why they're in so much trouble.  TLDR is that this is open country, once the Russians are routed (which they are right now), there is very little natural obstacles to help reestablish a defensive line.  If they're smart they'll abandon the whole area (which Russian generals have been urging for weeks).  If they don't do that, then they must hold Nova Khakovkha at all costs.  Without that, the position is completely impossible and they'll be doing everything (supply, retreat) with helicopters, which the Russians don't have nearly enough of. 

The ultimate disaster would be if the Russians were to lose Nova Khakovkha and allow the Ukrainians to cross there.  But surely even Putin isn't a stupid enough to allow that to happen. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

You left out the best line from that thread: 

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"Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it."