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Ukraine 21: On the Attack with a Giant Phallic Spear


DireWolfSpirit

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Drone (Swarm) Warfare -- this is the most fascinating aspect of how warfare is evolving, with Ukraine being the most important test case thus far. There's an interesting connection between the manned WWI bomber biplanes et al., as just one example, and what's been (or will) be used unmanned nowmaybe now, and inevitably.

Notable is how Iran, by way of Russia (and most likely due to its failure to achieve air superiority / supremacy), is finding alternative means of waging war more efficiently / effectively. Russia may not be able to capitalize on it much as it should, but another subordinate state will, eventually.

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59 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

Can’t someone just do that to Putin after one of his tirades? Save us some grief.

I have a hard time seeing this situation being completely resolved with Putin still in power. Perhaps those around him are starting to feel the same way.

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I have a hard time seeing this situation being completely resolved with Putin still in power. Perhaps those around him are starting to feel the same way.

Some of those around him are also bigger hardliners than Putin. The one benefit I see to Putin continuing to run this operation is just how badly he is bleeding Russia's military dry for whoever comes after him. 

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4 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Some of those around him are also bigger hardliners than Putin. The one benefit I see to Putin continuing to run this operation is just how badly he is bleeding Russia's military dry for whoever comes after him. 

Doesn't make sense to me to wish for the seventy year old cancer riddled dictator dead (unless we execute him ourselves, but that's a whole different thing). All of the energy he has left probably goes entirely towards maintaining his web of loyalists to keep him in power. No time for duct taping his military back together or finding plausible manpower solutions or even negotiating himself one of those OffRamps y'all were all ejaculating over six months ago.

That is good for Ukraine. Better for America. Best for Russia.

The status quo is, all things considered, approaching ideal. 

Even this long rumored economic iceberg that we should be striking has upsides. Won't impact security situation, could allow for more radical/reactionary approaches to domestic crises. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Some of those around him are also bigger hardliners than Putin. The one benefit I see to Putin continuing to run this operation is just how badly he is bleeding Russia's military dry for whoever comes after him. 

Any hardliner could still blame this as "Putin's war" and pivot to projecting Russian power in the Caucasus, where the West is sadly less likely to care. And I don't think Turkey alone could fully arm any of those countries. 

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Apparently D-1 howitzers have been deployed in Luhansk Oblast to replace the heavy artillery losses the Russians have been suffering. The D-1 was a hugely formidable howitzer...right up until it was discontinued in 1949.

A tank repair factory in Chita, Siberia has also apparently received 800 T-62s from deep storage that are not remotely fit for battlefield service. They have proudly proclaimed they will have all 800 back in working order by the end of 2025.

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58 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Apparently D-1 howitzers have been deployed in Luhansk Oblast to replace the heavy artillery losses the Russians have been suffering. The D-1 was a hugely formidable howitzer...right up until it was discontinued in 1949.

A tank repair factory in Chita, Siberia has also apparently received 800 T-62s from deep storage that are not remotely fit for battlefield service. They have proudly proclaimed they will have all 800 back in working order by the end of 2025.

Eventually, the Russians are going to get to emptying the warehouse with the Ark of the Covenant inside, and then we'll be in trouble.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll just send in soldiers a squad at a time to lift the lid and get their souls vaporized.

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4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Wild Turkeys can and do fly.  I nearly hit a flying turkey driving from Beaufort to Hilton Head back in 2001.

And so a new family tradition was born. From that year on, only Turkey brought down by the car of a family member would be served on Thanksgiving. 

 

Spoiler

Vegan Thanksgiving sucks, Scot!

 

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Russia has launched just over 3k missiles into Ukraine since the war began.  It is impossible to know exactly how many conventional ballistic missiles Russia had at the beginning of the war, but one of the most credible estimates was ~ 3800.  If that is correct, then Russia is down to barely 20% of its prewar stockpile, and the recent bridge reprisal bombing campaign (~200 missiles in two days) represented a meaningful portion of their remaining missiles. 

Those NASAMS and other anti air/missile defenses really cannot arrive fast enough.  I have never understood why providing air and missile defense systems would be at all controversial from an "escalation" perspective.  Once it was clear in early March that the Ukrainians weren't going to collapse, the US should be been laying the groundwork to hand over these types of systems.  It would have saved a lot of lives (civilian and military). 

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Russia has launched just over 3k missiles into Ukraine since the war began.  It is impossible to know exactly how many conventional ballistic missiles Russia had at the beginning of the war, but one of the most credible estimates was ~ 3800.  If that is correct, then Russia is down to barely 20% of its prewar stockpile, and the recent bridge reprisal bombing campaign (~200 missiles in two days) represented a meaningful portion of their remaining missiles. 

Worth noting this was not a "bridge reprisal bombing campaign." Russia gave the go order for the attack on 2 October, some days before the attack, and Ukraine was aware of that. In fact, I've seen speculation that the operation had been in the planning for some time and may have been launched specifically so that Russia's reprisal might be limited to just the attack they were planning anyway (instead of the missile attack, then the bridge attack, and then a further reprisal attack). They gave Russia an excuse, possibly to avoid further escalation later on.

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Yes, it was an already planned set of attacks that was then repackaged into a reprisal attack for the bridge.  But that feels like a bit of a distinction without a difference, since it's not like "reprisal" missiles are any different from planned strikes. 

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11 minutes ago, Gorn said:

First wartime drone-on-drone dogfight in history (at least, the first recorded on video), Ukrainian DJI Mavic vs. Russian DJI Mavic:

 

 

Was this from the Ukrainian's drone camera and the approaching one is the Russian one?

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12 minutes ago, Gorn said:

First wartime drone-on-drone dogfight in history (at least, the first recorded on video), Ukrainian DJI Mavic vs. Russian DJI Mavic:

Gorn -- phenomenal, evolution in action.

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Russia has been forcibly putting up Ukrainian kids for adoption, lying about their relatives being dead and converting them to Russian. That is literally one of the definitions of genocide.

 

 

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FT article on the Battle for Kherson.

Quote

Western military officials estimate Ukraine could take Kherson up to the Dnipro as soon as next week.

In response to the Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian occupiers in Kherson are ramping up the kidnap/extradition of Russian friendly citizens (and presumably, Ukrainian children). 

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