Ukraine 21: On the Attack with a Giant Phallic Spear

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

True. But also the people of Crimea are apparently genuinely interested in being part of Russia (maybe less so now than they were), and Crimea is not a historical part of Ukrainian territory (unlike the Donbas). Ukraine basically saying "fuck that," forcing the Russian-favouring population out and claiming the land because they want to or they find it strategically necessary, is essentially what Russia has done with the rest of Ukraine, which everyone objects to. I don't think it's a sustainable idea. The terrain in Crimea also does not favour the kind of offensives that Ukraine has carried out until now.

Putin also has a seriously irrational historical hard-on for Crimea, and that might really be the thing that pushes him to hitting the button (retaking Crimea also means retaking Sevastapol and probably destroying the naval base there, and either sinking the Black Sea Fleet or denying it a home base, which threatens Russia's entire naval geopolitical standing). Crimea is also highly divisive for Ukraine's support: just about everyone agrees Ukraine should retake its borders up until 23 February lines, most agree retaking the Donbas as well back to 2014 lines, but Crimea is a much bigger sticking point.

Retaking Crimea also adds a very large, pro-Russian voting pool to Ukraine's demographic again, possibly with a negative impact on the country's long-term prospects.

Ideally, yes, Ukraine should retake Crimea and address any democratic debate about what its people want to do after the war through a properly-monitored referendum afterwards.

Again, there's this thing called the UN charter, which guarantees the inviolability of borders of sovereign countries. Plus all those other treaties that Russia signed, recognizing Crimea as part of Ukraine.

Any Crimean Russians who would rather live in Russia than in Ukraine are welcome to do so. They have all of Russia to choose from as their new home, from St. Peterburg to Vladivostok. But the only parts of Ukrainian land that they are entitled to take with them are whatever gets stuck on their shoes and car tires.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Okay German boarders… is this woman actually in trouble?

 

[Maithanet]

Potentially interesting if that means Russia is ready to negotiate again.  Those terms are obviously a joke, but the Ukrainians are not fools. 

 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Potentially interesting if that means Russia is ready to negotiate again.  Those terms are obviously a joke, but the Ukrainians are not fools. 

 

When Russia says its open for negotiations, it means that it wants more time to reload their guns behind their back. 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Again, there's this thing called the UN charter, which guarantees the inviolability of borders of sovereign countries. Plus all those other treaties that Russia signed, recognizing Crimea as part of Ukraine.

Any Crimean Russians who would rather live in Russia than in Ukraine are welcome to do so. They have all of Russia to choose from as their new home, from St. Peterburg to Vladivostok. But the only parts of Ukrainian land that they are entitled to take with them are whatever gets stuck on their shoes and car tires.

I would agree with those points.

19 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Potentially interesting if that means Russia is ready to negotiate again.  Those terms are obviously a joke, but the Ukrainians are not fools. 

Ah, so the "Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are forever Russia and Ukraine is never getting them back," line is now revealed to be pure bullshit, and Putin may trade them for recognition of Crimea and the Donbas.

Clearly not a goer as an idea but a sign that Putin 1) often talks BS and 2) is looking for an end to the war on terms that at least some international partners will think is reasonable (though the Ukrainians will not). Also an excuse for further escalation if Ukraine turns down more "reasonable" discussion points.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I would agree with those points.

Ah, so the "Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are forever Russia and Ukraine is never getting them back," line is now revealed to be pure bullshit, and Putin may trade them for recognition of Crimea and the Donbas.

Clearly not a goer as an idea but a sign that Putin 1) often talks BS and 2) is looking for an end to the war on terms that at least some international partners will think is reasonable (though the Ukrainians will not). Also an excuse for further escalation if Ukraine turns down more "reasonable" discussion points.

Putin acknowledging the reality that Kherson and Zaporizhzia are not part of Russia is a good sign.  Obviously it will require a lot more concessions than that, but it's good when there are signals that Putin is still aware of the facts on the ground, rather than just the bullshit propaganda he's spouting. 

It remains quite possible (likely?) that after further setbacks Putin escalates again.  That has been the pattern of this war.  But Putin is running out of cards to play, and the situation only continues to deteriorate for him. 

[a free shadow]

12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ah, so the "Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are forever Russia and Ukraine is never getting them back," line is now revealed to be pure bullshit, and Putin may trade them for recognition of Crimea and the Donbas.

Brief take on the former soviet and now Russian negotiating tactics by the Estonian prime minister.

[Kalbear]

Honestly the whole idea that Crimea is a dagger pointed at Ukraine is overblown. Ukraine is incredibly vulnerable to Russia regardless of Crimea, both from their shared border with Russia and with the shared border with Belarus, which as we've seen is significantly more threatening to striking major important parts of Ukraine. I don't think that Ukraine is going to be that caring about Crimea for a variety of reasons, but the security implications are the least of them. The West Bank this ain't. 

I did appreciate Putin also saying that there's no need for more missile strikes at this time. This is a great example of how everything is spun to his advantage. It's not that they've used like all but 10% of their PGM capacity or anything like that, no - it's him being magnanimous and choosing not to do it.

 

 

[Corvinus85]

7 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Honestly the whole idea that Crimea is a dagger pointed at Ukraine is overblown. Ukraine is incredibly vulnerable to Russia regardless of Crimea, both from their shared border with Russia and with the shared border with Belarus, which as we've seen is significantly more threatening to striking major important parts of Ukraine. I don't think that Ukraine is going to be that caring about Crimea for a variety of reasons, but the security implications are the least of them. The West Bank this ain't. 

It's still a danger to Ukraine's commercial capabilities. Ukraine's ability to conduct sea trade will remain vulnerable as long as there is a Russian naval/air base in Crimea.

[Kalbear]

8 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

It's still a danger to Ukraine's commercial capabilities. Ukraine's ability to conduct sea trade will remain vulnerable as long as there is a Russian naval/air base in Crimea.

That's true regardless though. It's worse, but it's not so much worse that it's untenable. 

[karaddin]

When considering the value of Crimea I would have thought being able to stop the bridge being rebuilt would count as a consideration - it's clearly been pretty important for Russia to keep supplies into the south of the country, taking that out of the equation changes where they can attack.

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is the Russian dictator offering Musk a principality or something?

One of the things that we as a population needs to do is understand that rich people often do not have grandiose designs or 4d chess plans. Elon Musk is doing this because Elon Musk is pissed off that Zelensky told him to fuck off. It is as simple as that. 

[Ran]

I'm baffled that Zelesnky and co. would actually manage something of an own-goal by being petty over irrelevant tweets from Musk. He's not a politician or diplomat, his random musings about the war are as consequential as his opinions on marijuana legalization (people really need to deeply imbibe the knowledge that Twitter is not real life), but he has clearly been doing Ukraine a lot of good out of SpaceX's own pocket (paying 70% of the internet connectivity and at least some portion of the terminal outlays) and I'm not terribly shocked that he's retorted with equal pettiness.

This could have been avoided if they shrugged and treated it as the irrelevancy that it is. It's not like the rest of the world hasnt' had people critiquing him, and it's not like Ukraine is in a position to pick and choose where they get help from. You have to make some compromises when you accept ongoing help from someone, like not telling them to fuck off and keep their nose out of your business when the only reason you care about them is because, well, you invited them to stick their nose into your business.

All very odd. I imagine it will blow over, or alternatively the US and other governments will take over paying the costs SpaceX has been footing out of the goodness of its corporate, PR-loving heart.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

It's still a danger to Ukraine's commercial capabilities. Ukraine's ability to conduct sea trade will remain vulnerable as long as there is a Russian naval/air base in Crimea.

If we are lucky enough to reach the stage where invading Crimea is a real question, I assume we are also thinking about what the end game is.  Is Ukraine joining NATO (that would certainly reduce Ukraine's security concerns)?   Is Russia willing to make a peace?  How easy will it be for Ukraine to occupy Crimea?

It seems very difficult to make a call on Crimea when we don't know all the other factors at play.  A lot has to happen first.

[Maithanet]

Good update on the war.  He expects most of the Kherson region north of the Dnipro to fall in the next 1-2 weeks (but not the city itself).  Says that the supply problems from the Crimean bridge attack have not yet peaked, as it will take a little time to exhaust the supplies that were already in Crimea.  The supply situation in Kherson oblast will get steadily worse for Russia. 

 

[Kalbear]

Russia now starting to crack down on Ukraine war critics. Notably to me Grey Zone is a Wagner-specific mouthpiece, which may indicate further divisions in Russian power circles and them getting a bit pushed under the bus.

 

 

[Jace, Extat]

Why can't I like Kal's posts?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Because, ran is jelly of Kal's warning points and in his role as the Elon Musk of this board he is taken away your ability to like kal's post, because it was not sustainable. 

+1 For staying in character ran.

I can't react to kal's post either btw.

[Ran]

Hmm, that's the second report I've had of this problem. Thought it was isolated.

Going to take the board down for a couple of minutes to run a check through the database, as it looks like something's not right.

ETA: Think it's fixed, but as an admin I always saw the like button, so let me know if it is not in fact fixed.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

 

25 minutes ago, Ran said:

Hmm, that's the second report I've had of this problem. Thought it was isolated.

Going to take the board down for a couple of minutes to run a check through the database, as it looks like something's not right.

ETA: Think it's fixed, but as an admin I always saw the like button, so let me know if it is not in fact fixed.

Fixed, Elon.