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Ukraine 21: On the Attack with a Giant Phallic Spear


DireWolfSpirit

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On the subject of Crimea, it's also worth noting they have the only still-functioning, out-of-fire-control rail connection into Ukraine pretty much at all at the moment, which is the only route in for heavy resupply.

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13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

On the subject of Crimea, it's also worth noting they have the only still-functioning, out-of-fire-control rail connection into Ukraine pretty much at all at the moment, which is the only route in for heavy resupply.

Sounds like time to hit it again.

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Odd rumour doing the round inside Ukraine that the US and Russia held top-secret talks in August in which the US reiterated that Russia must withdraw to 23 February lines as an absolute minimum for discussions, and apparently Russia was willing to discuss that and even withdrawing LPR and DPR recognition (although possibly suggesting a federated arrangement instead) if the US would encourage Ukraine to recognise Crimea as Russian. Then the Izyum offensive took place and the US decided to table discussions to see what Ukraine could further achieve on the battlefield, and Putin was so incensed because he was effectively offering the Americans what seemed like a dream deal to end the conflict that he moved to escalation and annexation.

Trying to find a better source on that because it does sound barmy, and why would the US withdraw from such talks when their hand was strengthened by the Ukrainian successes on the ground, not weakened?

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If they wanted to do the give everything but recognize Crimea hasn’t that been on the offering table from Turkey for months? Sure Ukraine right now possibly thinks it can get better but still all the other territories and a referendum in Crimea is reasonable start for negotiations.

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9 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

If they wanted to do the give everything but recognize Crimea hasn’t that been on the offering table from Turkey for months? Sure Ukraine right now possibly thinks it can get better but still all the other territories and a referendum in Crimea is reasonable start for negotiations.

I think Ukraine's position right now is that it isn't interested in negotiations at all and sees it has a reasonable chance of winning everything on the battlefield, including maybe Crimea. However, that will take time and in the meantime Ukraine continues to be at the mercy of Russian attacks, civilians continue to suffer etc. If Russia was offering effectively a return to the status quo and even maybe regaining Donbas, why wouldn't they at least get back in the room? I know the anger in Ukraine over what's happened is very real and very understandable, but ending the war on favourable terms with its territory almost intact or even enlarged without the need for more pain, deaths etc seems reasonable, given Russia will definitely be walking away from the conflict as the very clear loser, no matter how they try to spin it.

That's why I don't really buy the story, but I have a couple of contacts in Ukraine who've repeated that in the last day or two.

ETA: Apparently elements in the Russian defence ministry have blamed the FSB for a massive intelligence failure which led to the attack on the bridge. The FSB, who've been the whipping boys for months for all the war's failures, have been complaining internally that neither the military nor the political leadership has been listening to their intelligence on what's going on in Ukraine, leading to the current mess. Sounds like a bit of a major turf war going on, with the FSB, Wagner, and the army all taking somewhat different positions.

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Well there is also the question in why would Ukraine ever trust anything Russia says or signs? They broke every treaty they had with Ukraine going back to the 90s. Heck them giving over their nukes was supposed to guarantee their independence. Then 2014 and then now. Russia clearly can not be trusted to honour their word. If they let them go now I am guessing most in UAF are just thinking it’s just going to happen again down the line.

For anyone who has read Weber and Honorverse it sort of reminds me of the Solarian league. Only way things are safe for their neighbors is for the nation to be broken up. Like the recent article I read with one of the Polish generals said Russia is always at war. They’re imperialistic by default and if they’re not invading you and taking your stuff they’re just building up to invade you and take your stuff.

https://www.pism.pl/publications/the-russian-aggression-against-ukraine-is-a-classic-great-european-war

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4 minutes ago, Arakasi said:

Well there is also the question in why would Ukraine ever trust anything Russia says or signs? They broke every treaty they had with Ukraine going back to the 90s. Heck them giving over their nukes was supposed to guarantee their independence. Then 2014 and then now. Russia clearly can not be trusted to honour their word. If they let them go now I am guessing most in UAF are just thinking it’s just going to happen again down the line.

For anyone who has read Weber and Honorverse it sort of reminds me of the Solarian league. Only way things are safe for their neighbors is for the nation to be broken up. Like the recent article I read with one of the Polish generals said Russia is always at war. They’re imperialistic by default and if they’re not invading you and taking your stuff they’re just building up to invade you and take your stuff.

https://www.pism.pl/publications/the-russian-aggression-against-ukraine-is-a-classic-great-european-war

Agreed, but it is not a given that Russia will break up and collapse (although a lot of Russian experts, some of them Russian themselves, saying there's a much bigger chance of it happening than most realise, it's still not likely).

So short of that you need a resolution that gives Ukraine and Europe some security. Russia having smashed its army into a million pieces, lost thousands of vehicles, fired off hundreds of its most expensive and best weapons and having its economy shrunk significantly, dramatically extending any future timeline for rebuilding its forces, and Ukraine coming out of the conflict with enhanced alliances, a much larger and stronger army and hugely upgraded weapons capabilities, is probably about as good as you are going to get. Not peace forever, but peace for the next 15-20 years, and who the fuck knows what will happen in that time. When Putin dies, maybe the hardliners take each other out and someone who's even vaguely sane gets in and carries out some reforms which stick this time.

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A consistent set of ideas about the Kherson front is that Ukraine has prepared the battlefield in such a way that Russia will be forced to either i) cross rivers offensively or ii) cross rivers defensively, where all such rivers lack bridges due to HIMARS, if the Russian want to preserve the forces that are currently stuck in the various boxes in Kherson Oblast.

By eliminating the bridges in Kherson Oblast, Ukraine chopped the area up into a bunch of boxes, each of which contain Russian troop formations and equipment.  The borders are the rivers, sans bridges.  Russia has already demonstrated that they are poor at river crossings, and Ukraine has demonstrated that they are good at attacking river crossings.

So Russia is in a cleft stick when it comes to the troops and equipment in each of the Kherson boxes.  And Ukraine has a variety of options when it comes to the Russian troops and equipment in each box.

Opportunity in Operational Command South - Patrick Fox (substack.com)

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Odd rumour doing the round inside Ukraine that the US and Russia held top-secret talks in August in which the US reiterated that Russia must withdraw to 23 February lines as an absolute minimum for discussions, and apparently Russia was willing to discuss that and even withdrawing LPR and DPR recognition (although possibly suggesting a federated arrangement instead) if the US would encourage Ukraine to recognise Crimea as Russian

I wonder how Ukraine joining NATO (or not) factors into any discussions.

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-crimea-e63a8ca18062413f627beaa99058c28e?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_01

Quote

The Russian Defense Ministry said two men opened fire at volunteer soldiers during a target practice session in western Russia, killing 11 of them and wounding 15 others before being killed themselves. The ministry called it a terror attack.

And on the subject of the FSB. https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/the-insider-kremlin-linked-officers-seek-asylum-in-france

Quote

A member of Russia’s Security Service (FSB) and a member of the Russian mercenary organization Wagner have requested asylum in France, reports The Insider. Testimonies provided by both individuals will reportedly shed light on Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine.

 

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3 hours ago, Padraig said:

I wonder how Ukraine joining NATO (or not) factors into any discussions.

Yeah if I were Ukraine this would be the thing that I'd be wanting to get me to agree to the deal Wert was discussing above. Given Russia's being untrustworthy to honour any agreement you need to let Ukraine into NATO for them to be the guarantor of the peace essentially.

Everything I've seen in here indicates that would still be a huge issue as far as Russia is concerned.

Regardless of the eventual outcome of Ukraine I don't see how Russia can possibly put the toothpaste back in the tube for what turned out to be the illusion of their military power. Between their massive equipment loses and the tanked economy they're not going to get to play the regional bully to anywhere near the extent they could before. They still have their nukes of course but that's the only thing their neighbours need to really fear. And in the absence of fear, those neighbours will go ahead making other arrangements to keep them secure - like Kazakhstan moving closer to China.

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I don't know the answer to these questions:
The oft-quoted $20M pcm figure - is that cost, or "would cost on the open market"?
Is it "Musk / SpaceX are spending $20M pcm" or "Musk / SpaceX have provided $20M pcm of services, mostly paid for by the US, UK and EU governments"?

Even if it's $20M pcm from Musk personally - he "earns" $13,000M per month - so it's the equivalent of someone earning £26k (more or less average wage in the UK) per year making a monthly donation of £3.33

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If Starlink is still losing money, it's not because they are providing internet to Ukraine. Providing internet to Ukraine might mean they are losing more money than otherwise. But if Starlink is a money losing venture so far without Ukraine, then one solution is to not take the global good will that was generated by providing Starlink to Ukraine and piss it up a wall by appearing to cosy up to Putin and soon after pull the plug on Ukraine's access to Starlink. People who can pay >cost for Starlink were possibly more inclined to sign up for it a month ago. Who knows how many of those people are now deciding to stick with their current ISP?

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Russia is grabbing men off the street to fight in Ukraine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/16/russia-mobilization-men/

Quote

 

Police and military officers swooped down on a Moscow business center this past week unannounced. They were looking for men to fight in Ukraine — and they seized nearly every one they saw. Some musicians, rehearsing. A courier there to deliver a parcel. A man from a Moscow service agency, very drunk, in his mid-50s, with a walking disability.

“I have no idea why they took him,” said Alexei, who, like dozens of others in the office complex, was rounded up and taken to the nearest military enlistment office, part of a harsh new phase in the Russian drive.

In cities and towns across Russia, men of fighting age are going into hiding to avoid the officials who are seizing them and sending them to fight in Ukraine.

Police and military press-gangs in recent days have snatched men off the streets and outside Metro stations. They’ve lurked in apartment building lobbies to hand out military summonses. They’ve raided office blocks and hostels. They’ve invaded cafes and restaurants, blocking the exits.

At a predawn sweep on the Mipstroy1 construction company dormitories on Thursday, they took more than 200 men. On Oct. 9, they rounded up dozens at a Moscow shelter for the homeless.

Officials raided the Mipstroy1 construction company dormitories on Oct. 13, taking more than 200 men. 

The press-gangs appear to descend at random. It is terrifying — and, at times, comically haphazard. Alexei, a 30-something pacifist, lives with his cat and, until Russia’s he was hauled off, enjoyed hanging out with friends in bars, cafes and parks, going to concerts and planning his next holiday in Europe. (He and others in this report spoke on the condition that his last name be withheld out of concern for his safety. The Washington Post has confirmed the raid, but could not independently verify the details he provided.)

An official barged into Alexei’s office on Tuesday. Two police officers and several plainclothes military officials arrived and demanded his identification. They ordered him to go with them quietly “or we will use force,” he said.  ....

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Russia is grabbing men off the street to fight in Ukraine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/16/russia-mobilization-men/

 

Press gangs wandering the streets of major Russian cities to grab men of fighting age… and beyond it… off the street.  ^Clearly things are going well for the Russians.^

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17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Press gangs wandering the streets of major Russian cities to grab men of fighting age… and beyond it… off the street.  ^Clearly things are going well for the Russians.^

Duh - winning 

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