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MLB 2024: The Reign of Shohei


Myshkin
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On 12/7/2022 at 4:41 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I've asked this before, but why don't teams push harder for shorter, more lucrative deals and then design them so they can still pay out over time? Judge probably has 2-3 great years left and after that it's anyone's guess. That's a lot of money late for a guy with a body that may not be able to hold up.

Judge is making 40 mil per year on his new deal.  How much would you pay him on a shorter deal?  Would have to be astronomical to get him to even consider it, and even moreso if you're also going to defer money (which reduces the present value of the offer).

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18 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Judge is making 40 mil per year on his new deal.  How much would you pay him on a shorter deal?  Would have to be astronomical to get him to even consider it, and even moreso if you're also going to defer money (which reduces the present value of the offer).

$300m over 6 years with around $50m of it differed over five more years afterwards regardless of any future deal he signs? Would a player like Judge consider that fair?

Edited by Tywin et al.
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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

$300m over 6 years with around $50m of it differed over five more years afterwards regardless of any future deal he signs? Would a player like Judge consider that fair?

Thought you were going to say something unrealistic.  But have to admit that there would probably be some debate over that one, at least if the deferrals were removed.

Ultimately, though, in that specific scenario, I think he would pass on the higher AAV and take the longer deal with the extra guaranteed money.

Basically comes down to what he would expect to earn as a 37 year old (at the end of your proposed 6 year contract).  The difference between 360/9 and 300/6 is 60 million over 3 years.  And while Jose Abreu did almost sign for that going into his age 36 season, doubt anybody would want to count on beating that number.  Too much of a risk (for the same reasons that you are trying to avoid paying him for those seasons).

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7 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Thought you were going to say something unrealistic.  But have to admit that there would probably be some debate over that one, at least if the deferrals were removed.

Are deferrals really that big of a deal, especially if interest was offered?
 

Quote

Ultimately, though, in that specific scenario, I think he would pass on the higher AAV and take the longer deal with the extra guaranteed money.

Basically comes down to what he would expect to earn as a 37 year old (at the end of your proposed 6 year contract).  The difference between 360/9 and 300/6 is 60 million over 3 years.  And while Jose Abreu did almost sign for that going into his age 36 season, doubt anybody would want to count on beating that number.  Too much of a risk (for the same reasons that you are trying to avoid paying him for those seasons).

So what AAV would have to be offered to make a player like Judge take the deal that ends when he's entering his late 30's, not ending them? Would upping it to $325 over seven with no deferrals do it?

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15 minutes ago, DMC said:

Interesting with all three of the big shortstop deals they appear to be longer than expected to lower the AAV.

I heard MLB was ready to kill a proposed 14yr Judge/Padres deal precisely to combat this kind of AAV manipulation 

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Anything past like a 6 year contract is super weird to me. I'm 100% about player retention on one team - I mean last year's entire Cardinals season wasn't about winning in the playoffs but more to celebrate Yadi and Waino being buddies for 15 years and all of us faithful clapping along.

13 years? What the heck? Ridiculous. I'd be 100% supportive of some crazy career-spanning deal for a homegrown passionate talent, but Correa is just some guy, and the Giants are just cutting some check. What the heck, again?

edited to lighten some of my midnight confusion and anger. 

Edited by Argonath Diver
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Red Sox DFA Jeter Downs. Ugh. 

Trading Mookie was the beginning of the end for the Sox. The deal keeps looking worse and they continue to make bad decisions.

Here's to hoping Marcelo Mayer is for real.

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