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MLB 2024: The Reign of Shohei


Myshkin
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The Correa contract has four separate vesting options for $25m, $20m, $15m, and $10m respectively. So after the first six years the Twins will get to see how he holds up on a yearly basis. Correa has no opt outs.

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1 hour ago, Myshkin said:

The Correa contract has four separate vesting options for $25m, $20m, $15m, and $10m respectively. So after the first six years the Twins will get to see how he holds up on a yearly basis. Correa has no opt outs.

So what you're saying is that the Twins a.) spent money and b). gave themselves a fuck ton of outs. 

I'm back on board baby! 

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  • 2 weeks later...
54 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

My ignorant take is this a dumb move by the Twins to save some money. 

You mean the Arraez deal?  I dunno, sounds pretty fair to me.  Pablo Lopez is a pretty damn good young starter.  There were those rumors during the deadline that the Yanks were gonna trade Torres for him, which I woulda been fine with.  Now, Arraez certainly had a better year than Torres, but they're pretty comparable players - albeit Arraez has one more year of control which is significant.  Arraez may have won the batting title, but his OPS doesn't exactly knock your socks off.

Plus, sounds like the Twins got two good prospects from the Marlins in addition.  Too lazy to check if they're really that promising, but if they are, I'd be happy with the deal if I were you.

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47 minutes ago, DMC said:

You mean the Arraez deal?  I dunno, sounds pretty fair to me.  Pablo Lopez is a pretty damn good young starter.  There were those rumors during the deadline that the Yanks were gonna trade Torres for him, which I woulda been fine with.  Now, Arraez certainly had a better year than Torres, but they're pretty comparable players - albeit Arraez has one more year of control which is significant.  Arraez may have won the batting title, but his OPS doesn't exactly knock your socks off.

Plus, sounds like the Twins got two good prospects from the Marlins in addition.  Too lazy to check if they're really that promising, but if they are, I'd be happy with the deal if I were you.

He's about to turn 27, so not that young, and has a sub .500 record and had a 4 ERA this year. Not exactly something to be excited about. And the prospects are not highly regarded. This should excite no one:

Quote

Salas, 19, is a borderline top-100 prospect, signed out of Venezuela for $2.8 million in 2019 after growing up in the Orlando area. He finished last season in High-A and is likely to start there again this year.

Chourio, 17, is a center fielder who hit .344/.429/.410 for the Marlins' Dominican Summer League team last season.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35491193/sources-marlins-acquire-all-star-luis-arraez-trade-twins

We traded an all-star for beans. It was a salary dump, clear as day. They didn't want to pay him when he was up in two years. 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

He's about to turn 27, so not that young, and has a sub .500 record and had a 4 ERA this year. Not exactly something to be excited about. And the prospects are not highly regarded. This should excite no one

LOL, dude had a 3.75 ERA, about a 1.1 whip, and 23.6% K rate in 180 innings.  That's a valuable starter with two years (counting this year) of control.  Who gives a shit about his win-loss record?

As for the prospects, "a borderline top-100 prospect" is a pretty fucking good prospect.  I dunno about the other prospect, but just Lopez and Salas are objectively not beans.  You're either extremely overvaluing Arraez or extremely undervaluing Lopez and at least the first prospect.

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Fangraphs article on the trade

Personally I take Lopez over Arraez.  Both are good players.  But I'd rather have a talented pitcher over a contact hitter who doesn't have much power or speed.

Arraez has an extra year of control, though, so I guess that balances things out to some degree.

Until you add in the fact that Miami also gave up two high upside prospects.

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Eh, I don't follow the sport nearly as close as the two of you, but it feels like we gave up a legit all-star who could be a reliable hitter for years for a mid rotation pitcher on a team where all our starters are just that, mid, and two prospects that will probably become nothing. Especially with this team's recent history. This really seems like it came down to not wanting to pay him long term.

Edited by Tywin et al.
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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

we gave up a legit all-star who could be a reliable hitter

As the fangraphs article Whiskeyjack linked notes, with the Correa signing Arraez would probably have spent most of his time at first base again this year.  Arraez is a subpar hitter at first base -- even while winning the batting title.  This wasn't a salary dump.

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I guess it's true that they don't want to pay him, but I don't think it's for the reason you're thinking.  It's not as if they think he's a $200 million player who they can't afford.  It's because they probably don't place a very high value on a 2B/1B who doesn't ever reach double digit HR.

I mean...my guess is that Lopez will probably get a bigger free agent contract than Arraez, if they both stay healthy.  Twins might not sign him long term either, but my point is I think this was more about them setting up their team for the upcoming season and the future than it was about dumping a super valuable asset for less valuable assets.

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

As the fangraphs article Whiskeyjack linked notes, with the Correa signing Arraez would probably have spent most of his time at first base again this year.  Arraez is a subpar hitter at first base -- even while winning the batting title.  This wasn't a salary dump.

He won the fucking batting title. I get you want your guy at first base to mash, but that's not a skillset you let go for cheap. And it's not like the players he'd replace at other positions were people you couldn't move on from. Just seems like a move that if it goes as good as possible we'll call it lateral.

6 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

but my point is I think this was more about them setting up their team for the upcoming season and the future than it was about dumping a super valuable asset for less valuable assets.

And you may ultimately be right about how the front office is thinking. But again, it's not a clear net improvement at all unless you really value prospects. Personally I'd rather have one of the best hitters in the game, even if he doesn't hit for power, over a pitcher that's being included in what could be a six man rotation and two prospects that we both know probably won't contribute at all for the team over the next five years. 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He won the fucking batting title. I get you want your guy at first base to mash, but that's not a skillset you let go for cheap. And it's not like the players he'd replace at other positions were people you couldn't move on from. Just seems like a move that if it goes as good as possible we'll call it lateral.

He won the batting title hitting .316.  That's not that impressive.  Especially when you consider his average-at-best walk rate and the fact he only hit 8 home runs.  If he was also a great defender at the keystone that would be one thing, but he's not. 

Unless there is vast and unforeseen improvement based on his career numbers, he's a solid contributor that has a decidedly mid-level market value once he hits free agency -- just like Lopez.  So yes, a one-for-one deal between the two would be a "lateral move," but including the prospects clearly makes it a win for the Twins (or at least accounts for his extra year of control).

It seems like you're vastly overrating Arraez because he won the batting title and made the all-star team.

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

It seems like you're vastly overrating Arraez because he won the batting title and made the all-star team.

Compared to the return, yeah. I don't think we got anything back that's promising, just a middle rotation guy and some prospects that more likely than not will never play on the team. Yay?

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31 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

MLB HoF voters need to get over themselves. Put Manny and A-Rod in and just have a needle sticking out of their busts. 

While I agree, it should start with Bonds and Clemens before we even get to Manny and A-Rod.

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Needs to start with Pete, no matter how much of a piece of shit he is.

Fair point, though obviously a different issue.  Rose probably would be in already if he wasn't such a douche.  Bet he's put in after he dies.

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  • 1 month later...

Team USA playing tonight at 9. Apparently some people in Great Britain actually play baseball. 

USA’s lineup is absolutely stacked and is a 8.5 run favorite tonight. Pitching is kinda iffy though, especially with Kershaw and Nestor having to bail out. We’ll see how it goes. Baseball is back, kind of!

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