What was Stannis Supposed to do if his Assassination of Renly Failed?

[Craving Peaches]

So imagine for whatever reason the Shadow Assassin doesn't work. Either it fails to materialise, kills the wrong target etc.

What is Stannis supposed to do now? He was not in a great position - in fact he was in a very bad one. He was outnumbered 4-1, his opponent had better quality troops, he had a hostile fortress to his back, a large portion of his army was composed of fickle sellswords, he had limited options to retreat...There is also no mention of Stannis having any defensive fieldworks set up (looks like he was really banking on that assassination...)

And what was he supposed to do other than retreat? People bring up comparisons to battles like Cannae and Austerlitz but apart from being in different time periods with different technology, strategy etc. the terrains and other aspects of these battles were quite different, so I really don't think they are comparable. I don't see how Stannis could win at all. It seems to be set up to be a battle impossible for him to 'win' conventionally. At best I can see him retreating with a much diminished portion of his army like after the Blackwater...

The only advantage Stannis has is the sun which really isn't that good when you think about it, because apart from being rendered instantly useless if there are any clouds, it also makes Renly's job of a cavalry charge easier, because the horses are less likely to shy away from charging.

[Daenerysthegreat]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

So imagine for whatever reason the Shadow Assassin doesn't work. Either it fails to materialise, kills the wrong target etc.

What is Stannis supposed to do now? He was not in a great position - in fact he was in a very bad one. He was outnumbered 4-1, his opponent had better quality troops, he had a hostile fortress to his back, a large portion of his army was composed of fickle sellswords, he had limited options to retreat...There is also no mention of Stannis having any defensive fieldworks set up (looks like he was really banking on that assassination...)

And what was he supposed to do other than retreat? People bring up comparisons to battles like Cannae and Austerlitz but apart from being in different time periods with different technology, strategy etc. the terrains and other aspects of these battles were quite different, so I really don't think they are comparable. I don't see how Stannis could win at all. It seems to be set up to be a battle impossible for him to 'win' conventionally. At best I can see him retreating with a much diminished portion of his army like after the Blackwater...

The only advantage Stannis has is the sun which really isn't that good when you think about it, because apart from being rendered instantly useless if there are any clouds, it also makes Renly's job of a cavalry charge easier, because the horses are less likely to shy away from charging.

His options are

1) Retreating, which is kind of difficult and may end up in his death

2) Commiting suicide

3) Giving all up in a last stand

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

His options are

1) Retreating, which is kind of difficult and may end up in his death

2) Commiting suicide

3) Giving all up in a last stand

That's what I was thinking. He doesn't have many options. He's not in a good spot.

[Canon Claude]

And then instead it would be Renly who has to deal with being a kinslayer. Though I doubt it would have bothered him much.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

And then instead it would be Renly who has to deal with being a kinslayer. Though I doubt it would have bothered him much.

I think it wouldn't bother him as much as it bothered Stannis because firstly he considered Stannis the aggressor in the situation and secondly it would be a lesser degree of kinslaying if any, Stannis being killed by Renly's troops after refusing to surrender is arguably not as bad as whatever Stannis was involved in to produce the Shadow Assassin.

[Stenkarazine]

If Stannis doe not manage to kill Renly with black magic (and is then utterly smashed between Renly's host and Storm's end), what does it mean for the course of the war ?

It seems to me the war would be over almost as soon as it began: Renly marches on KL with a huge host (Reach + Stormlands + eventual defectors from Stannis' side, depending if Stannis is dead or not), and takes the city.

Would Tywin even dare to march south and risk battle against such a powerful host ? 

It probably does not matter: if he does, he faces overwhelming odds (but I guess he still has a faint chance of victory, if he manages to take Renly unaware). If he does not and stays idle in the Riverlands, he is doomed, soon to be trapped between Renly and the Northmen. Best he can hope is negotiate terms with Renly, disown his own daughter and retreat back to the Westerlands, a thoroughly defeated man. 

 

 

[Loose Bolt]

 

Tywin is rich enough to hire assassins. So he almost certainly would hire some and try to win the game by that way.

[Arthur Peres]

Renly had quality and quantity advantage, Renly could attack Stannis from the castle and with his army, Stannis can do nothing, just wait to die or be captured.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Loose Bolt said:

Tywin is rich enough to hire assassins. So he almost certainly would hire some and try to win the game by that way.

But then why hasn't he done so before at any point in the book? I'm not denying he has wealth but he's never used it in that way. The Red Wedding, I believe, involved bribing the Frey's with lands and honours, not gold, and that was after Tywin was clearly in the stronger position than Robb with the Tyrells on his side. I think he'd have a harder job convincing people if the odds were against him. No one really likes Tywin, they just respect/fear him, and if he looks weak the motive to obey/listen to him would probably dwindle.

[Canon Claude]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think it wouldn't bother him as much as it bothered Stannis because firstly he considered Stannis the aggressor in the situation and secondly it would be a lesser degree of kinslaying if any, Stannis being killed by Renly's troops after refusing to surrender is arguably not as bad as whatever Stannis was involved in to produce the Shadow Assassin.

I mean, in terms of succession, Renly was absolutely the aggressor. He forsook duty and family for the sake of his own ambition, as most Baratheons are wont to do.  

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Canon Claude said:

I mean, in terms of succession, Renly was absolutely the aggressor. He forsook duty and family for the sake of his own ambition, as most Baratheons are wont to do.  

From Renly's point of view though Stannis attacked him with basically no provocation. He thought Stannis would see he had no support and give up, or at least attack the Lannisters first.

It's not like Renly knew that Stannis was the rightful heir/king when he was crowned because he didn't know about the incest and Stannis neglected to tell anyone for months even after things heated up. Renly wasn't even aware of Stannis'claim until much later. His choices at the time were to swear fealty to Joffrey, try to remain neutral somehow or crown himself. Obviously ambition played a part but I think self-preservation was also a factor. Marrying Margaery and becoming king gave him a much larger army that would allow him to try and remove the Lannisters, whom he thought were trying to kill him.

[Daenerysthegreat]

16 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

I mean, in terms of succession, Renly was absolutely the aggressor. He forsook duty and family for the sake of his own ambition, as most Baratheons are wont to do.  

Well the succession was smashed the moment rhaegar fell/Aerys was killed by Jaime. Renly is just following his family tradition 

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Daenerysthegreat said:

Well the succession was smashed the moment rhaegar fell/Aerys was killed by Jaime. Renly is just following his family tradition 

He's pretty blunt about it too. He wants to be king because he thinks he's the best for the job.

[Bobby B. VIII]

Based on the type of man Stannis is, unbending like iron with a strong sense of duty and loyalty, he would have continued forward with whatever the next-best option was in his eyes. If the shadow had failed I think Stannis may have done away with Melisandre and R'Hallor, he had no opposition to tossing aside his previous gods before when he burned the carvings of the seven after all. The shadows failure would only reaffirm his previous views on the gods he had followed his whole life before Melisandre came along. Surely a new god would be much easier to stop putting faith into. If he did cast them aside though he would quickly see that the only real ally he has left is Davos. He would lead his armies into a hopeless battle because he felt duty compelled him and been killed fairly shortly after. Thankfully the assassin worked.

[Frances Bean Corbray]

Without the success of the shadowbaby, Stannis dies in battle, Renly's Stormland/Reach coalition remains together and largely intact and besieges the capital.  Tywin has no choice but to surrender to save Cersei and Tommen's (and Tyrion's and Jaime's) lives [Joffrey's goose is probably cooked regardless].  He could maybe beg Balon to save his ass, but Balon would only (correctly) read that as a sign of weakness and start raiding the Westerland Coast instead of/in addition to the North.

If Cersei doesn't do anything stupid with Sansa's life while besieged it might even work.  But she might.  And losing Arya might screw her anyway.  House Lannister gets ground to dust between Robb & Renly with Tyrion probably being the only survivor.  Bolton and Frey don't dare double cross Robb without Tywin providing insurance, thus a Northern reconquest of Winterfell and re-expulsion of the Ironborn becomes inevitable

And then it's just Robb and Renly haggling over how independent the North gets to be.

[Frances Bean Corbray]

boy, that shadowbaby really fucked things up didn't it?

[sifth]

8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

But then why hasn't he done so before at any point in the book? I'm not denying he has wealth but he's never used it in that way. The Red Wedding, I believe, involved bribing the Frey's with lands and honours, not gold, and that was after Tywin was clearly in the stronger position than Robb with the Tyrells on his side. I think he'd have a harder job convincing people if the odds were against him. No one really likes Tywin, they just respect/fear him, and if he looks weak the motive to obey/listen to him would probably dwindle.

I do find it strange that Tywin never used a Faceless Man. He has the money to afford one.

[Minsc]

9 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

I mean, in terms of succession, Renly was absolutely the aggressor. He forsook duty and family for the sake of his own ambition, as most Baratheons are wont to do.  

In terms of succession, both should have supported Joffrey.

[Craving Peaches]

5 hours ago, sifth said:

I do find it strange that Tywin never used a Faceless Man. He has the money to afford one.

Maybe it would just be too expensive to have them kill who he wanted? They go on about how pricey it would be to kill Daenerys when she was just a princess, and the people Tywin might want to assassinate, e.g. Robb and Renly, are kings after all. And I always got the impression that it wasn't just gold you have to pay, but also something of personal value you have to give up to the Faceless Men. I don't know if the gold is running low but I think a few assassinations of monarchs would start to put a strain on the supply of already mined gold they had.

[Ring3r]

This is actually an awesome observation, IMO.

What was Stannis going to do if he didn't have a witch-queen by his side?

Well.....nothing.  Stannis has a long history of punching above his weight, he's a military genius...but he's been sniffing a bit too much of his own brand. He's been completely dependent on Mellisandre since they met, and his previous success was likely key to him falling for her. He thinks he's special and along comes a woman to whisper in his ear just how special he is.

Stannis has put himself in multiple impossible positions, and he's been burnt when Mel wasn't there.  She's manipulating him, to the point of breaking his honor to his wife. I'm not sure if Mel did that on purpose or not, but it was clearly the key to control him.  Subvert his honor, and he belongs to her.