NZers and Aussies: Switching it up

[Paxter]

6 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Sigh, the one I read didn't include that. Fuck them all.

Haha. To be fair he didn’t completely endorse the bigotry. But it would have been nice to see him stand alongside the majority, who probably have zero issues with the whole thing (gay representation included).

[The Anti-Targ]

I wonder how many people (esp farmers) at the groundswell protests (anti emissions charging for agriculture) yesterday are climate change deniers? I bet it was a far larger proportion than average, even among farmers.

I saw one placard among the photos in various articles that asked "Is this the future you want for your children?" Meaning, I presume, a future with fewer farmers and more expensive food, because of farmers having to pay for their emissions. It is an absolutely nonsense question to ask in support of not charging farmers for GHG emissions for someone who accepts climate change and its human causes. The future for our children is much bleaker than just more expensive food if GHGs don't get brought under control very soon.

And NZ is not going to run out of food even if half the farmers disappear. We'd still be exporting more than we consume.

Edited October 21, 2022 by The Anti-Targ

[Paxter]

Another hot inflation print for the Reserve (we even beat NZ this time!):

Quote

The annual CPI movement of 7.3 per cent is the highest since 1990. The past four quarters have seen strong quarterly rises off the back of higher prices for new dwelling construction, automotive fuel and food. Trimmed mean annual inflation, which excludes large price rises and falls, increased to 6.1 per cent, the highest since the ABS first published the series in 2003.

This quarter, food and housing were the main drivers, as well as household goods like furniture and consumer non-durables. Petrol prices actually fell this quarter (though I doubt that will persist after the recent OPEC decision). 

With core inflation running so hot and interest rates still at historical lows (though admittedly a lot of tightening has been done), the real interest rate is still negative. Hopefully it has risen enough to slow the economy down without breaking anything, but only time will tell.

I think we're probably looking at another two 0.25% rate increases before this year is out. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Paxter

[Jeor]

Yes, definitely more rate rises on the way. I don't think the RBA will go back to 0.5 rate increases, but you'd have to think they're going to keep raising consistently by 0.25 for a few months yet and into 2023.

The federal budget was a bit of a damp squib. After a lot of doomsday warnings, Jim Chalmers has essentially delivered a "steady as she goes" budget with no major policy changes or ideas. I actually hoped he might have had a bit more reform in there but I guess in the circumstances he might want to see how things are going a bit longer before delivering the full budget in May.

I hope someone at the state or federal level starts looking at drought mitigation initiatives again. It may seem absurd when we're going through a third La Nina with more flooding, but I reckon it's only a matter of time until it switches and we get the more traditional El Nino's and droughts again.

[Paxter]

6 hours ago, Jeor said:

The federal budget was a bit of a damp squib. After a lot of doomsday warnings, Jim Chalmers has essentially delivered a "steady as she goes" budget with no major policy changes or ideas. I actually hoped he might have had a bit more reform in there but I guess in the circumstances he might want to see how things are going a bit longer before delivering the full budget in May.

I’d expect more of the same from this highly uninspiring Albanese government.

ETA: Unfortunate ending to the Higgins trial. Misconduct by juror.

Edited October 26, 2022 by Paxter

[Skyrazer]

37 minutes ago, Paxter said:

ETA: Unfortunate ending to the Higgins trial. Misconduct by juror.

With how much publicity there is around the case and the amount of public furore it's brought in its wake, the case was always going to be highly susceptible to mistrial.

The fact it had to be delayed after the Wilkinson fiasco as well shows how difficult it will be keep the trial as fair and objective as possible.

[Jeor]

1 hour ago, Skyrazer said:

With how much publicity there is around the case and the amount of public furore it's brought in its wake, the case was always going to be highly susceptible to mistrial.

The fact it had to be delayed after the Wilkinson fiasco as well shows how difficult it will be keep the trial as fair and objective as possible.

Yes, unfortunately a mistrial was always going to be a possibility here. I don't know what the legal rules and precedents are, but given the massive media attention, I wouldn't be surprised if they had a judge-only trial second time around (and maybe they should have already done that the first time). I feel for Higgins who now has an agonising wait and for this to be dragged out another 6 months. I've never been a juror so I don't know what it's like, but they should have known not to do their own research on a case.

[Skyrazer]

40 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Yes, unfortunately a mistrial was always going to be a possibility here. I don't know what the legal rules and precedents are, but given the massive media attention, I wouldn't be surprised if they had a judge-only trial second time around (and maybe they should have already done that the first time). I feel for Higgins who now has an agonising wait and for this to be dragged out another 6 months. I've never been a juror so I don't know what it's like, but they should have known not to do their own research on a case.

My knowledge on legal proceedings is rather limited, but I believe the decision to hold a non-jury trial is up to the accused? If correct, I somewhat doubt Lehrmann will opt for a non-jury trial.

I work in a court (but not in any kind of legal capacity) and a colleague told me that accused parties pretty much never opt for Judge-only trials.

[Paxter]

12 minutes ago, Skyrazer said:

My knowledge on legal proceedings is rather limited, but I believe the decision to hold a non-jury trial is up to the accused? If correct, I somewhat doubt Lehrmann will opt for a non-jury trial.

I work in a court (but not in any kind of legal capacity) and a colleague told me that accused parties pretty much never opt for Judge-only trials.

100% correct. It’s up to the accused.

Choosing judge alone isn’t that unusual though. Happens very frequently in domestic violence cases (jurors are often not fond of the accused in those situations). 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Paxter

[The Anti-Targ]

I was on a jury in a father-toddler child molestation case. That was pretty traumatic. We were unable to reach a verdict. I am fairly certain ours was the second time the case went to trial because one of the jurors said they overheard the prosecutor say something like "another hung jury". I thought the guy was possibly guilty, but I could not say so beyond reasonable doubt. 10 out of the 12 also couldn't convict beyond reasonable doubt, 2 were convinced he was guilty, and they both revealed they had been subject to physical abuse as kids, though not sexual abuse. I dwelt on the possibility that the guy is an abuser and would do it again. But my sister told me that for child protection orders, rather than a criminal trial, there only has to be a reasonable probability that the guy abused his daughter and the court would restrict his access to supervised visits only. That would be hard on the guy if he wasn't a molester but it was damned hard not to believe he could have done it, so I was relieved to know that there would be almost no chance of further abuse.

[Paxter]

Got to love Dutton. He never changes:

Quote

“What is needed is a focus on making the basics a priority – reading, writing and maths, fostering a love of country and pride in our history and democracy, without sugar coating the past,” he said.

He later says: 

Quote

“Where the teachers lead the instruction and are supported to have orderly classrooms, where students learn respect, discipline, and ‘how to think’ not ‘what to think’.”

Isn't "love of country and pride in history" what to think? Not how to think?

[The Anti-Targ]

6 hours ago, Paxter said:

Got to love Dutton. He never changes:

Quote

“What is needed is a focus on making the basics a priority – reading, writing and maths, fostering a love of country and pride in our history and democracy, without sugar coating the past,” he said.

Aren't these somewhat mutually exclusive, for both NZ and Aus? It seems it should go more like "pride in our history through sugar-coating our past."

[Paxter]

34 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Aren't these somewhat mutually exclusive, for both NZ and Aus? It seems it should go more like "pride in our history through sugar-coating our past."

I think he’s referring to the theory that some teachers “sugar coat” the pre-colonial period and criticize British colonizers.

Who knows though with Dutton. He has all sorts of subtle ways of pandering to ScoMo’s “quiet Australians”.

[The Anti-Targ]

So he's like the Australian equivalent of the people who say colonisation of New Zealand was a good thing because Maori never invented the wheel. Not realising of course that wherever Maori originally came from the wheel had been invented possibly as long as 2000 years before they set sail for the far flung pacific islands.

[karaddin]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Aren't these somewhat mutually exclusive, for both NZ and Aus? It seems it should go more like "pride in our history through sugar-coating our past."

He's the #1 cheerleader for sugar coating the past, he's in the group that absolutely lose their shit if you mention that "colonization" was actually an invasion. It's just what Pax has said above

[The Anti-Targ]

730-ish earthquakes since May, but things seems to be calming down.

I'm not sure if "chance of an eruption in the next three months is very low" is meant to be encouraging or not. On the bright side, I think while a big eruption might de-populate quite a bit of the North Island, there is a good chance it would cause a bit of global cooling and buy the world a bit more time to get its climate change shit together. Not that I'm personally keen to make that sort of sacrifice, especially since it more than likely would be squandered.

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by The Anti-Targ

[The Anti-Targ]

Interesting new wage and employment stats released today. The average ordinary hourly rate of pay has increased YoY to September this year by 7.4%. Not long ago the annual inflation figure for basically the same time period was announced as 7.3%. This means that on average people's purchasing power has not really eroded. It's a pity that this period of wage growth has not allowed the lower income workers to get out ahead of inflation a bit and improve quality of life, but at least it seems they are not drowning. A different index, the all salary and wage rates (including overtime) rose by 3.7 per cent, the second highest annual increase since the series began in 1993.

The labour market remains tight with unemployment at 3.3%, which is helping to increase wages. Things would be so much worse for the lower income workers if unemployment was above 5%. Low immigration and low population growth have been cited as major factors in the low unemployment and high wage growth. They are being framed as problems, but I can't see workers who's pay packets have increased to help manage through this inflation period complaining.

The danger to the economy is falling house prices, which is going to start making mortgage holders start to feel less financially secure, especially if substantial numbers of people get into a negative equity situation. Continuing to jack up interest rates is going to contribute to that tipping point being reached. I think the interest rate response to inflation might end up being a cure is worse than the disease situation if it keeps going for much longer. Interest rates are high enough that people's behaviour has changed. Yet, low unemployment is tends to make the reserve bank more likely to increase interest rates, l because they are afraid of the inflation effect of wage growth. But wages typically grow in response to inflation, not the other way around. Further indicators that are mostly good for workers.

Quote

Feelings of job security rose in the September 2022 quarter, with 52.8 per cent of employed people - who were able to assess their job security - saying there was almost no chance they’d involuntarily lose their job or business in the next 12 months. This time last year, only 45.6 per cent of people felt that secure.

“Strong feelings of job security coincided with increasing numbers of people working in permanent roles,” Collett said. Over the year, there were 46,100 more permanent employees and 12,400 fewer fixed-term employees (not seasonally adjusted) in the labour force.

Highest-ever labour force participation: The labour force participation rate rose to 71.7 per cent and the employment rate rose to 69.3 per cent.

 

[Paxter]

Yup, that’s the issue with real rates. They haven’t actually moved as much as you think because inflation is high and wages are going up. 

Even house prices won’t really start to slide until the real rate is high enough to deter borrowers.

Now that we are getting to 3% nominal rates and beyond, we should actually start seeing a slowing of the economy. That’s particularly the case in countries like Australia that have a lot of floating rate debt and hence a fast monetary transmission mechanism. The Fed is in a tough spot in part because most mortgages haven’t yet re-priced. That will start happening in ‘23.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Paxter

[Paxter]

Bit late in posting this... but I have to sadly take us back to my beloved Perth, to the suburb of Midland, where I spent a large proportion of my childhood. Midland is a dusty, visually unappealing and (in the summer) blazingly hot part of metro Perth, established in the 1890s and now sitting at the terminus of various highways and railway lines. It has had its booms and busts over the years and enjoys a mixed reputation (at best) amongst Perth people. To me, Midland will always be special as it was the location of my grandparents' home, countless amazing childhood memories and one of Perth's most vibrant immigrant communities. Weird though it is to say it, I really love Midland and it's part of my identity. 

Unfortunately, in this part of Perth, it is normal for non-Aboriginal people to look down on Aboriginal people, a decent number of whom are struggling with issues around employment, substance abuse, housing and/or mental health. It is also not uncommon to see non-Aboriginal people hurl abuse or use racial slurs in relation to Aboriginal people. This racism is just the norm in Midland. It always has been and I don't know if it will ever change.

But the recent death of Cassius Turvey should be a call to action. This 15 year-old kid was bashed to death last month with (what is believed to be) a shopping trolley handle, for no apparent reason. It appears to be a spur-of-the-moment and likely racially-motivated attack (though WA Police are not commenting on that - right at the time when it would be most powerful). I'm hoping that this is a wake-up call for the entire country but being so far away it is hard to tell. In the meantime, I am nowhere near as proud of my roots as I would like to be. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Paxter

[The Anti-Targ]

Sorry to hear that your home turf got the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Depressingly, there will be people who think some races are so inferior that they regard them as primates rather than humans, and killing a useless primate that is a drag on society is a righteous act, and a mercy to that individual. They think declaring Australia to be terra nullius way back when was objectively true, there were no humans on the continent before the Europeans landed. I'm sure it's just the tiniest of minorities who think that. But when they violently act on that attitude it creates a lot of misery.