NZers and Aussies: Switching it up

[Paxter]

On 11/18/2022 at 1:15 AM, Stubby said:

So the Victorian election campaign is throwing up some good stuff.

The LNP sledging of Dan Andrews is woefully inept. It's like the ads are written by parody accounts.

And while they are universally failing to score any hits, the LNP is itself being investigated by the Electoral Commission for irregularities in its campaign.

Good times.

I haven't paid close attention to this election but things aren't looking great for the Vic Libs (surprise, surprise). Most of the TPP polling has Labor in the mid 50s, so even with the usual 3% margin for error they are looking set for yet another term.

One would think though that the VIC ALP could benefit from some succession planning. 

ETA: Would it be fair to say that we are at "Peak Labor" across the country? Very mature governments in QLD and VIC can't last forever (presumably!) and they are also in power in WA, SA, the ACT and NT. 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Paxter

[Skyrazer]

10 hours ago, Paxter said:

I haven't paid close attention to this election but things aren't looking great for the Vic Libs (surprise, surprise). Most of the TPP polling has Labor in the mid 50s, so even with the usual 3% margin for error they are looking set for yet another term.

One would think though that the VIC ALP could benefit from some succession planning. 

ETA: Would it be fair to say that we are at "Peak Labor" across the country? Very mature governments in QLD and VIC can't last forever (presumably!) and they are also in power in WA, SA, the ACT and NT. 

The Vic libs are absolutely worthless. Don't think I've seen an opposition this hopeless. Matt Guy is so devoid of any kind of appeal, sometimes I wonder if he's even human. The fact that he's apparently their best candidate for leader even after their thumping 4 years ago when he was also leader speaks volumes to the party's severe lack of talent.

Just seems that every time they try to get an attack in on Dan Andrews (and it's always about Dan), it gets drowned out by whatever new scandal crops up within their own party. First the IBAC referral over the 100k payment and then all the toxic shit coming out about many LNP candidates and how the party seems to be overrun by religious fundamentalists is all not helping. If they were actually somewhat decent, they'd have a pretty good chance of ousting Labor as many are somewhat over Daniel Andrews.

Victoria is a fairly left-leaning state and with the way things are going here, the Greens are eventually going to become the main opposition if the Libs don't get their shit together.

If NSW goes Labor at next year's election, we'll probably hit peak Labor I reckon.

[Stubby]

Off the top of my head, I think there was one time when all the States were Labor and the Feds were the LNP, but I can't be sure.  It certainly seems to be peak Labor at the moment.

3 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

and then all the toxic shit coming out about many LNP candidates and how the party seems to be overrun by religious fundamentalists is all not helping.

After the smashing they got in WA at the last vote, they commissioned a review.  They found a systematic interfering by a bunch of Lib high flyers that all but guaranteed that the candidates would be religious conservatives.  But they still blame McGowan's performance during Covid for the results.  There is serious cognitive dissonance on display in the LNP nationally IMO.  The business-focussed moderates of my parents' day are gone, and the fundies are leading the downfall.

[Skyrazer]

SA Libs are dealing with the infiltration as well. Was only last year they had to purge a bunch of dodgy pentecostals from its ranks and then they wound up getting hammered at this year's state election.

It's quite alarming seeing what's happening to the Libs nation wide. If I was a moderate Lib in what was once a blue-ribbon city seat, I'd seriously consider becoming a "teal" independent.

[Paxter]

It does look pretty dire for the LNP.

But you don't have to wind back the clock too far to when Labor were a complete rabble in Canberra (Craig Thompson etc), as well as in QLD, WA and NSW. So there is probably a cyclical as well as structural element at play. 

[The Anti-Targ]

NZ reserve bank has incresed interest rates by the biggest singe hike ever, 0.75%, to 4.75%. At the same time it is forecasting a recession. Gee I wonder why? The best way to squash inflation is to drive the country into recession. Complete bollocks! 

[Skyrazer]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

NZ reserve bank has incresed interest rates by the biggest singe hike ever, 0.75%, to 4.75%. At the same time it is forecasting a recession. Gee I wonder why? The best way to squash inflation is to drive the country into recession. Complete bollocks! 

Oof, that's gotta sting.

What's the current inflation rate in NZ?

[The Anti-Targ]

Current inflation rate, last time I recall it being reported a month or two back was 7.2%.

[Paxter]

15 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Oof, that's gotta sting.

What's the current inflation rate in NZ?

NZ and Aus have a similar inflation story. They both pumped their economies and markets with stimulus and liquidity during a time of constrained supply and high international commodity prices. 

While we would expect both the RBNZ and RBA to tighten in response to this macro situation, there are a few reasons I can think of why the RBNZ might be more hawkish and wanting to protect their currency via higher interest rates:

• NZ debt is likely denominated in foreign currencies (unlike Australia's), so that debt will be more expensive to service as the NZ dollar falls
• NZ imports will become more expensive as people continue to flee for the safety of the USD (and other important currencies)
• NZ has an overall lower debt burden than Australia, so NZ households will not suffer as much pain via interest rate rises as Aussie households

[Skyrazer]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

NZ and Aus have a similar inflation story. They both pumped their economies and markets with stimulus and liquidity during a time of constrained supply and high international commodity prices. 

While we would expect both the RBNZ and RBA to tighten in response to this macro situation, there are a few reasons I can think of why the RBNZ might be more hawkish and wanting to protect their currency via higher interest rates:

• NZ debt is likely denominated in foreign currencies (unlike Australia's), so that debt will be more expensive to service as the NZ dollar falls
• NZ imports will become more expensive as people continue to flee for the safety of the USD (and other important currencies)

Yeah fair points. AUD is heavily anchored to resource prices (especially iron ore). NZD wouldn't have such an anchor so would be more impacted my global currency fluctuations.

Quote

NZ has an overall lower debt burden than Australia, so NZ households will not suffer as much pain via interest rate rises as Aussie households

Would NZ's households be that much less indebted then aussie households? Their house prices are similarly unaffordable to ours and I don't imagine their consumer habits would be too dissimilar at all to ours.

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Yeah fair points. AUD is heavily anchored to resource prices (especially iron ore). NZD wouldn't have such an anchor so would be more impacted my global currency fluctuations.

Would NZ's households be that much less indebted then aussie households? Their house prices are similarly unaffordable to ours and I don't imagine their consumer habits would be too dissimilar at all to ours.

You’d be surprised how much more mortgage and personal debt Australia has. Household debt is roughly 120% of GDP for Aus and just under 100% for NZ - not completely dissimilar but definitely an inferior position for Australia.

ETA: Others will correct me but I also believe Auckland is the main issue with house prices / high LVR loans in NZ. Australia is more across the board.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Paxter

[The Anti-Targ]

Auckland is definitely the worst, a decent family house in a middle-income part of town is over $1 million. Though maybe not any more, house prices have been falling for a bit, but don't know if it's fallen below $1M. Some other places are very expensive compared to median income, but there are towns and smaller cities with affordable houses. We still have an overall housing shortage.

An Auckland University macro-economics professor is very scathing about the 0.75% hike (I made a mistake, before, it took the interest rate up to 4.25%, not 4.75%). He thinks the hike was cynically performative by the RBNZ to try to regain its reputation for being serious about inflation when the actual economic conditions on the ground only demanded a 0.25% rise.

My Ministry's analysis on the ag, forestry, fibre and food sectors indicated that global food fibre and forestry prices are dropping and while still high compared to 2021 demand and price around the world is going down.

Petrol has also dropped ~50c/litre from its peak. We've had probably a full quarter of fuel price deflation. So really the inflation bugbear might be a tad overstated. The RBNZ is deliberately pushing us into a full year of recession starting second half of next year. I find that to be outrageous. With inflation at the level it is it should not be necessary to deliberately cause a recession for a full year, it should not be necessary to deliberately cause any recession. That's the cure being worse than the disease.

[Paxter]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

With inflation at the level it is it should not be necessary to deliberately cause a recession for a full year, it should not be necessary to deliberately cause any recession. That's the cure being worse than the disease.

Let's not forget that current interest rates are still slightly negative in real terms. That is not overly restrictive and will not necessarily lead to a full-year or deep recession. A lot of the tightening we have seen so far is simply a normalization of extreme pandemic-era policy, which was fueling a debt bubble. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by Paxter

[Skyrazer]

Just voted.

The number of dumb candidates running for the senate is bloody annoying. Idiots still can't get over the lockdowns and since we still run with group voting tickets here in Vic, a couple of them could end up on the senate.

[Skyrazer]

Well it's pretty much a wrap for a majority Vic Labor govt which was pretty much expected. Looks like it's mirrored the fed election in that we see swings against Lab/Lib towards Greens/indis, but Libs are coming off such a small base, it's a bad result for them.

[karaddin]

If the Libs keep this up the teals will become a genuine chance to party up and displace them 

[Skyrazer]

8 hours ago, karaddin said:

If the Libs keep this up the teals will become a genuine chance to party up and displace them 

That's what I've been saying since the Libs have been getting shitted on these past couple years at Fed and state elections.

Yes, the major parties have suffered severe defeats before and eventually bounce back, but this new low for the Libs feels more than just a cyclical thing. Before, they always had their core constituents in wealthy inner-city electorates which they could rely upon to keep the party in contention. Blue ribbon seats that have produced leaders and prominent members for the party and they're starting to lose them. Even in this latest election, Labor has flipped or further consolidated in many of the eastern metro electorates and this used to be Liberal heartland and I don't see them getting these seats back anytime soon with the way they are going.

Without these blue-ribbon seats producing the leaders and prominent members for the party, they have been getting hollowed out and you can see it with how bereft of talent the party is. Looking at the libs at both federal and state level, I don't know wtf they stand for anymore. Everywhere, they're flailing around looking for a reason to exist and with the continued encroachment of hard line religious conservative fundies, they seem to be producing more and more absolute stinkers of candidates lately.

Not to mention the fact that we are moving away from a 2 party system which means them being a major force is no longer a guarantee like it was before.

I'm not saying their extinction is a certainty, but they look increasingly on the nose with the way the county and the party itself is heading. I feel the libs completely need to overhaul themselves from top to bottom if they want to remain as the second major party to Labor because right now, they are not offering themselves as a viable alternative.

[karaddin]

11 minutes ago, Skyrazer said:

Yes, the major parties have suffered severe defeats before and eventually bounce back, but this new low for the Libs feels more than just a cyclical thing. Before, they always had their core constituents in wealthy inner-city electorates which they could rely upon to keep the party in contention. Blue ribbon seats that have produced leaders and prominent members for the party and they're starting to lose them. Even in this latest election, Labor has flipped or further consolidated in many of the eastern metro electorates and this used to be Liberal heartland and I don't see them getting these seats back anytime soon with the way they are going.

Without these blue-ribbon seats producing the leaders and prominent members for the party, they have been getting hollowed out and you can see it with how bereft of talent the party is. Looking at the libs at both federal and state level, I don't know wtf they stand for anymore. Everywhere, they're flailing around looking for a reason to exist and with the continued encroachment of hard line religious conservative fundies, they seem to be producing more and more absolute stinkers of candidates lately.

Yeah, losing those heartland seats feels like a new problem they haven't had to tackle before. When they get wiped out like this it leaves the party more heavily skewed to the hard right types who take that power and drag the party even further right, which just makes it even harder to try get some talent back into the parliamentary party.

They said a few times on the ABCs coverage that you would never expect to win the next election after a wipe out like the last one, but that they hadn't even recovered any ground. It's actually even worse when you consider the liberals rather than the coalition, the numbers last night were the nats gaining 3 seats but losing 5 from the libs, they lost basically 20% of their seats. They were supposed to recover some of the seats that produce somewhat talented performers so they can truly recover next election but instead they lost more.

If Matthew Guy was already the best they had after getting mauled in 2018, how are things going to be looking in another 4 years. Hell, he didn't even resign on election night after these two atrocious election results...

[Skyrazer]

Matt Guy has since stood down as leader, but I honestly don't see anyone among their ranks to step up and be an effective leader. They have absolutely nobody palatable.

I hear many say they should turn to outer metro electorates, but nothing to me indicates they are really doing anything to appeal to these areas. These electorates are hungry for infrastructure and amenities and Labor is generally the party that delivers these things (while Libs are generally seen as cutters and privatisation). Many outer metro suburbs are also immigration havens and we all know Liberal's track record with immigrants is hardly flattering.

They'll need to produce candidates like Dai Le to win over many of these electorates - highly active and representative of the local community. Kinda ironic that she used to be a Lib member herself before the party kicked her out .

[Jeor]

The teals are taking over a growing section of otherwise-Liberal voters, the well-off social/environmental progressives. It's hard to see how they win them back until they make some serious concessions on environmental policy, which the Nationals will never take, so the Coalition arrangement itself is going to come under some stress unless they can find a way to cut the Gordian knot.

In a way it's not surprising that the religious right and social conservative wing of the party is the dominant one; it's the only issue they can mostly agree on. Even then, there are some moderates but those members aren't so moderate that you'd confuse them with Labor. I for one think that there are a lot of "moderate conservatives" out there in the electorate - people who hold some religious beliefs or conservative values, but who are also fairly sensible and not pushy about it - but these people aren't typically the ones who get involved in politics.

In many ways, Malcolm Turnbull was ahead of his time. The teals would never have gained a foothold if Turnbull was leading the Liberal party, as he was in effect wrote the playbook for the whole teal movement. It remains to be seen if the Liberals can field a party leader who can traverse the line between being a bit more socially/environmentally progressive and yet keep the party faithful (pun intended) happy.