NZers and Aussies: Switching it up

[The Marquis de Leech]

On the leadership, it really hinges on whether Chris Hipkins can get the 2/3 of Labour MPs necessary. I personally do not like Hipkins, who has the persona of a smug bureaucrat, and all of Ardern's reluctance to engage with concrete policy without her fundamental good nature. The Right consider him competent, but he excites exactly no-one.

If Hipkins does not get 2/3, it goes to the membership. I think they are more likely to go for Michael Wood, who is more focused on traditional economic Leftism than Ardern's more social liberal stances.

[The Anti-Targ]

Some of the commentariat think Labour needs to install a Maori PM. But the only real possibilities there at the moment are Kiri Allen and Nanaia Mahuta. I think Mahuta is a bit wounded from recent events, and might be a bit suspect on playing favourites with friends and family and govt contracts. True or false that sort of shit sticks. Kiri Allen never came across to me as being interested in being PM, but I don't know enough about her to know whether she'd be a good option. I like what I've seen of her, but I haven't seen enough to be able to form an opinion. Probably a perspective most of the gen pop share when it comes to her. But at least she doesn't have baggage like Nanaia Mahuta.

The other option for a Maori PM is Kelvin Davis current deputy leader of the party, but he has firmly taken himself out of the running, and there seems to be no one seriously contemplating that he will flip flop on that decision.

Some people think Grant Robertson is playing a bit of a game and perhaps expecting the caucus to arm twist him into accepting the PMship despite his public protestations. That would not be dissimilar to how Ardern got the leadership in 2017, though I think in Ardern's case she was genuinely reluctant, and maybe surprised at how it changed Labour's fortunes in that election.

I think Mahuta as PM would be a sign that Labour expect to lose, but they want the claim to be the party that gave the country its first Maori PM and first Maori woman PM.

Two white dudes (albeit at least one of them gay) as PM and deputy PM is not the best diversity look heading to an election. If Hipkins or Wood get the top job then Robertson should do a deal to stay in finance and hand over deputy PM to someone not white and / or not male. Better for the demographic of the electorate that is motivated by such things, and of no real consequence for the demographics who 1) don't care about that sort of thing AND 2) actually contemplate voting Labour. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

The polls only have National/ACT about five points ahead of Labour/Green. That's not 2008, much less a 1990 apocalypse. Labour are weak right now, but a win in October is not unthinkable.

So far as diversity goes... one would hope that policy would actually still matter more than gender or skin colour. The portion of the population who would be excited by such things are already voting Green anyway.

[The Anti-Targ]

Yes, one would hope policy is all that matters. But that's the ideal world, and we're far away from that. Anyway Labour certainly doesn't want the Greens to prosper at its expense. Certainly people of a mind to vote National or NZ First but also could be convinced to vote Labour don't give a fig about race or gender, or if they do they prefer white and male over anything while claiming to be purely meritocratic. And some people who care about race in particular may be of a mind to vote for Te Pati Maori if they think Maori are being sidelined in Labour.

[The Marquis de Leech]

It's Hipkins, of course. *Cue snark about gingers having no soul, especially this one.*

[The Anti-Targ]

He was basically anointed by the media, and because Labour couldn't afford to have a scrap to choose the new PM his ascent became an inevitably. He could be the best person for the job among all the viable options, but that's not entirely why he was chosen, IMO.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Media currently cooing about Hipkins' lack of wokeness. As though the only meaningful quality for a PM is Culture War nonsense.

[The Anti-Targ]

One of the bits of commentary I've seen is that Hipkins wants to focus the rest of the term on economy and trying to get crime off the front pages of the newspaper. He and Labour strategists likely, and probably correctly, see economy and crime being the weak points that can lose them the election. And that's part of the whole problem with politics as we know it, the swing middle can mostly only hold a few things in their brain at a time, and for the most part they are clueless and if orant about the the complexities for almost every issue of national significance. So they figure out how they feel about the 2 issues of the day and decide the govt is mostly to blame of those issues are going bad. If they care about those issues enough that influences their vote.

[Paxter]

Although crime in Alice Spings (population 25k) seems to be top of the pollies' pops right now, there is another problem looming for Albo:

Quote

Support for the Voice has slipped, the latest Resolve Political Monitor found.

When asked if they support altering the Constitution to establish an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, 47 per cent of survey respondents said ‘yes’, 30 per cent said ‘no’ and 23 per cent were undecided.

When the Resolve Political Monitor asked voters last September if they supported The Voice, 53 per cent said ‘yes’, while 29 per cent said ‘no’ and 19 per cent were undecided.

Published in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, the poll found 63 per cent of voters have heard of the Voice, but don’t understand it and would struggle to explain it.

23% undecided would seem to be enough to get the referendum over the line...but things aren't trending the right way. 

[Skyrazer]

Honestly, wavering support for the voice was pretty much an inevitability. Any constitutional change is going to invite doubt and suspicion once it's on the table. Also with the Libs/Dutton acting exactly how I was expecting them to with their gaslighting the whole thing would be feeding people's doubts as well.

Quote

Published in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, the poll found 63 per cent of voters have heard of the Voice, but don’t understand it and would struggle to explain it.

Above is a real issue too that is going to be difficult to overcome because, to be honest, most people probably don't fully understand how parliament works in general....

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Skyrazer said:

Honestly, wavering support for the voice was pretty much an inevitability.

I don’t completely agree with that. I think if the Coalition had come out with bipartisan support, then voters would have fallen into line a bit more. 

But yeah, The Voice is certainly harder to explain than say, the decision to count Aboriginal people as part of the census (‘67 referendum). The model for the republic was also a bit hard to explain…not a good omen.

Edited January 24 by Paxter

[Stubby]

20 hours ago, Paxter said:

I don’t completely agree with that. I think if the Coalition had come out with bipartisan support, then voters would have fallen into line a bit more. 

But yeah, The Voice is certainly harder to explain than say, the decision to count Aboriginal people as part of the census (‘67 referendum). The model for the republic was also a bit hard to explain…not a good omen.

And we are not very good at making constitutional change. Whether that is due to the requirements that need to be met or just stubborn refusal to engage is the question. 

[Paxter]

Inflation coming in hot again for both Aus and NZ.

You’d think our friends on Martin Pl will have to do another 50 points of tightening after that print. There are a few signs that the economy is slowing, but not that many. 

Edited January 25 by Paxter

[Paxter]

Pretty serious flooding in Auckland and surrounding area - hoping all of our boarders are safe and well.

Tough start for the new PM too.

[The Anti-Targ]

Commentary on inflation here is that while it's remained up, the cause of it remaining up is different and less about everyday spending. A lot of economists on this side of the ditch would like to see the RBNZ take a deep breath rather than continue to dogmatically run the country into a recessionary wall. They think inflation will mostly come right of its own accord now, which a supply driven inflation will once supply issues get resolved.

Re Auckland floods, I was visiting family up there and left two days before it all went to shit, the dinner the night before I left was at an outside restaurant that was bloody hot and sunny. But I left my wife behind as she had a weekend thing to attend. Her parent's house got very minor flooding on the ground floor / quasi basement which is where the spare bedroom is that we sleep in when we visit. Carpet very smelly but otherwise no significant damage. Flooding at their house should be very unusual since they live on a hill, but I think the problem was the ground got so waterlogged it started seeping through the walls, rather than it being a proper flood. My nephew lived right next to a small swamp about 2 or so metres below his house, his small deck overlooking the swamp almost got flooded.

More heavy rain supposed to come in today, and Northland (region north of Auckland, in case anyone couldn't guess) just declared a state of emergency. I hope my wife's flight out of Auckland this arvo gets away.

We had a fair share of flooding events around the country last year, I don't recall any deaths being reported. So 4 (at least) deaths from the Auckland flooding is pretty tragic.

Personally I partly blame the shitty upkeep of storm water infrastructure. No doubt there are no storm water systems that can totally prevent flooding, but as with a lot of public infrastructure investment there have been decades of under-investment and the chooks are coming home to roost. Things would not have been as bad if optimal storm water drainage had been in place, and some deaths might not have happened. No one govt or party has been to blame, but from today on govts need to pull finger and get on with improving those systems, and have their feet put to the fire if they are not doing what needs to be done.

[Impmk2]

Rejoice! The radioactive capsule has been found.

[Paxter]

On 2/1/2023 at 3:40 AM, Impmk2 said:

Rejoice! The radioactive capsule has been found.

Not quite the same as finding Cleo, but still a pretty good effort!

[Stubby]

On 2/1/2023 at 4:40 PM, Impmk2 said:

Rejoice! The radioactive capsule has been found.

I have a number of observations on this story.

1. The memes have been spectacular.

2. Someone screwed up.

3. The glee on the faces of the team that found it was pure nerdy fun.

4. As a direct result of this story, I know about caesium.

That is all.

[Varysblackfyre321]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/03/britain-relaxed-about-australia-omitting-king-charles-from-new-5-banknote-high-commissioner-says
This is nice.

[horangi]

7 hours ago, Stubby said:

I have a number of observations on this story.

1. The memes have been spectacular.

2. Someone screwed up.

3. The glee on the faces of the team that found it was pure nerdy fun.

4. As a direct result of this story, I know about caesium.

That is all.

I do enjoy the comment from BBC "A serial number enabled them to verify they had found the right capsule."  I mean it would be quite an embarrassment if they found someone else's lost cesium capsule.