The Economics of Warfare

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

and why Daenerys can defeat the forces of Westeros.

I have read the two threads debating the effectiveness of Daenerys Targaryen's armed forces against the forces of Westeros.  Now, it is obvious to me that the Anti-Daenerys folks are not going to be convinced, so this thread may not be for them. They have dug themselves into a position and will stay there.  But for those who are already on Team Daenerys or who possess a reasonable level of objectivity, read on. 

The armed of forces of Westeros are composed of peasants, farm workers, craftsmen, fishermen, and builders.  Soldiering is not their livelihoods.  Most of them have never been in battle.  A wealthy family like the Lannisters might be able to equip most of their soldiers with decent quality weapon but they are the exception.  The economy of Westeros cannot support a large, standing army.  What it has is a small number of knights.  Some are very good, most are going to be mediocre, and a significant number are there for show.  They would make Oznak look like a pro.  You see, in Westeros, the people who will be called to fight are the economic engine.  They produce the goods needed for the population to eat, have shelter, and maintain livable conditions.  Any lengthy war will be devastating because the leaders will send their labor force to go to battle.  Just about everything needed by the people will stop being produced.  Social order will break down.  They will definitely run to hide inside their castles.  But as you can see from Roose's dilema in Winterfell, supplies will run out very quickly.  Battle horses will become food after the mice and vermin have been consumed.  There will be desertion where soldiers will sneak out at night. Men will turn to cannibalism.  Are mothers psychologically prepared to see their farmboy sons die?  I don't think so.  Farmboys are not supposed to die in battle.  Most have never experienced battle. 

The Dothraki, The Unsullied, and the mercenaries are all professional fighting forces.  To the Dothraki, warfare IS the economy.  The culture they come from are accustomed to casualties and the hardships of war.  The Unsullied are even better.  The dragons are not needed as long as Daenerys can bring a number that is sufficiently close to the number of the enemy.  So if Westeros can squeeze 50K able-bodies from their farms, Daenerys will need close to that.  And all of hers will be able-bodied, armed, trained, and by then, experienced.  Of the 50K from the Westeros side, maybe 5K will be annointed knights.  They won't all have good quality armor.  It depends on their finances.  Daenerys will need the advantage she has because it is usually harder to be on the offense.  The attacking force need the advantage in most cases. 

If Team Daenerys can build war machines out of boat timber, like they did, they can surely build effective equipment to lay siege to any castle in Westeros.  They have no need to batter the gates or the walls.  Just the belief can put stress on the army hiding inside.  Food, arrows, weapons, and horses can always be resupplied from Essos and the Free Cities.  Daenerys will have Essos to support her campaign.  The men whom she rescued from slavery will be bringing important skills.  Crafts people, healers, carpenters, farmers, and herders.  They will provide the army with what is needed. 

George Martin can do what he wants.  He can make Patchface the most formidable warrior ever to carry a sword.  But we are making this evaluation based on what we have read from the text.  And when a man like Robert fear the Dothraki, there is a good reason to believe that they will be very effective in Westeros.  The addition of the Unsullied provides a magnificent synergy. 

 

[astarkchoice]

Actualy  they are mostly full time professionals! Knights train from birth in various types of combat and they and every lord brings with them their professional soilders. Now in some cases yes the forces are bulked up with conscripts and or volunteers but  most mid to late medieval forces would be professional troops.

 

The westeros infantry will be stronger than unsullied ,better armoured and with a wider variety of weapons...not as well trained as  they have lives outside of training yes but far from.pushovers

[Craving Peaches]

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The economy of Westeros cannot support a large, standing army.

It can't but neither can anyone else. No one has industrialised.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

What it has is a small number of knights.  Some are very good, most are going to be mediocre, and a significant number are there for show.  They would make Oznak look like a pro.

No they wouldn't given that they have been training to fight in real battles their entire lives and not just whatever Oznak was doing.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

They would make Oznak look like a pro.  You see, in Westeros, the people who will be called to fight are the economic engine.  They produce the goods needed for the population to eat, have shelter, and maintain livable conditions.  Any lengthy war will be devastating because the leaders will send their labor force to go to battle.  Just about everything needed by the people will stop being produced.

This is true for Daenerys as well. She will be relying on these people to produce food for her and her army.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Social order will break down.  They will definitely run to hide inside their castles.  But as you can see from Roose's dilema in Winterfell, supplies will run out very quickly.

Not if the castle is well provisioned they won't.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The Dothraki, The Unsullied, and the mercenaries are all professional fighting forces.  To the Dothraki, warfare IS the economy.  The culture they come from are accustomed to casualties and the hardships of war.  The Unsullied are even better.  The dragons are not needed as long as Daenerys can bring a number that is sufficiently close to the number of the enemy.  So if Westeros can squeeze 50K able-bodies from their farms, Daenerys will need close to that.  And all of hers will be able-bodied, armed, trained, and by then, experienced.  Of the 50K from the Westeros side, maybe 5K will be annointed knights.  They won't all have good quality armor.  It depends on their finances.  Daenerys will need the advantage she has because it is usually harder to be on the offense.  The attacking force need the advantage in most cases. 

And how is she going to feed all these troops?

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Food, arrows, weapons, and horses can always be resupplied from Essos and the Free Cities.  Daenerys will have Essos to support her campaign.  The men whom she rescued from slavery will be bringing important skills.  Crafts people, healers, carpenters, farmers, and herders.  They will provide the army with what is needed. 

Transporting food over is not that simple. Also, remember what happened last time when she left Astapor unattended with a 'wise council' in her place? They went right back to the old ways. And she can have as many craftsmen as she wants, if the resources aren't there it makes no matter.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

And when a man like Robert fear the Dothraki, there is a good reason to believe that they will be very effective in Westeros.

He doesn't fear the Dothraki specifically, he fears Targaryen loyalists rising up with the Dothraki.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The addition of the Unsullied provides a magnificent synergy. 

The Unsullied may have the best training in the world but they have bronze age equipment and tactics going up against late medieval style armies.

Finally, if Daenerys and her forces just steamroll over everyone with no fight, it will be boring. It would not be good writing. I want to see conflict. Daenerys vs Aegon. Dragon vs Kraken. Not everyone in Westeros suddenly losing all spine and morale and just bowing down or waiting for the Dothraki to kill them.

[Aldarion]

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The armed of forces of Westeros are composed of peasants, farm workers, craftsmen, fishermen, and builders. 

No they are not:

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2020/08/21/proof-that-westerosi-armies-are-professionals/

And with that alone I could just dismiss the rest of your post, but well...

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Soldiering is not their livelihoods.  Most of them have never been in battle.  A wealthy family like the Lannisters might be able to equip most of their soldiers with decent quality weapon but they are the exception.  The economy of Westeros cannot support a large, standing army.  What it has is a small number of knights.  Some are very good, most are going to be mediocre, and a significant number are there for show.  They would make Oznak look like a pro.

Except large number of well-disciplined troops is precisely what we see. They may not be full-time professionals, but as I pointed out in other thread, part-time professionals such as feudal troops are very effective when defending their own land. They are only problematic in wars of conquest, because they simply don't care about those.

Standing army is not automatically superior simply because it is a standing army.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

You see, in Westeros, the people who will be called to fight are the economic engine.  They produce the goods needed for the population to eat, have shelter, and maintain livable conditions.  Any lengthy war will be devastating because the leaders will send their labor force to go to battle.  Just about everything needed by the people will stop being produced.  Social order will break down. 

Nope, nope and nope. Westerosi armies are not a "draft of everything that can walk", because otherwise we wouldn't see large-scale maneuvers and deployments that we, you know, actually see. Nor would we see disciplined maneuvers we see in the few battles actually described. We also don't hear of mass desertions that plagued such armies. And actual description of troops also shows that most of them are either professionals or well-drilled militia: pikemen and longbowmen are not something you can draft from untrained peasants.

Also, Westeros has some 400 000 troops. Assuming levee en masse that you are assuming here would result in population being untenably small.

So no, "people who will be called to fight" are not the economic engine, and while they are part of the labor force, they are not such a significant part that would seriously affect the economy by their absence. Certainly not to the point that "social order will break down".

Sorry, that is just fantasy.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

They will definitely run to hide inside their castles.  But as you can see from Roose's dilema in Winterfell, supplies will run out very quickly.  Battle horses will become food after the mice and vermin have been consumed.  There will be desertion where soldiers will sneak out at night. Men will turn to cannibalism.  Are mothers psychologically prepared to see their farmboy sons die?  I don't think so.  Farmboys are not supposed to die in battle.  Most have never experienced battle. 

Except Westerosi soldiers are not farmboys, Mr. Mormont. And how will "supplies run out very quickly" when you have society that regularly survives ten year winter? Makes absolutely no sense.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The Dothraki, The Unsullied, and the mercenaries are all professional fighting forces.  To the Dothraki, warfare IS the economy.  The culture they come from are accustomed to casualties and the hardships of war.  The Unsullied are even better.  The dragons are not needed as long as Daenerys can bring a number that is sufficiently close to the number of the enemy.  So if Westeros can squeeze 50K able-bodies from their farms, Daenerys will need close to that.  And all of hers will be able-bodied, armed, trained, and by then, experienced.  Of the 50K from the Westeros side, maybe 5K will be annointed knights.  They won't all have good quality armor.  It depends on their finances.  Daenerys will need the advantage she has because it is usually harder to be on the offense.  The attacking force need the advantage in most cases. 

 

That means nothing. Dothraki are just mentally retarded version of Plains Indians - they have no similarity to Mongols at all, and the best they did recently was beating up Lhazareen. Unsullied meanwhile are discount Spartans, and I wouldn't expect them to win even if Westerosi troops really were a horde of peasants, considering whole castration business and the manner in which they are trained.

If anything, Dothraki and Unsullied will need a massive numerical advantage to win against any Westerosi army.

Annointed knights are not the only soldiers in Westerosi armies. Vast majority of Westerosi troops have steel armor of some sort - be it plate or mail - yet you, for some reason, believe that annointed knights - elite of the elite - won't have good quality armor? Get a grip.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

If Team Daenerys can build war machines out of boat timber, like they did, they can surely build effective equipment to lay siege to any castle in Westeros.  They have no need to batter the gates or the walls.  Just the belief can put stress on the army hiding inside.  Food, arrows, weapons, and horses can always be resupplied from Essos and the Free Cities.  Daenerys will have Essos to support her campaign.  The men whom she rescued from slavery will be bringing important skills.  Crafts people, healers, carpenters, farmers, and herders.  They will provide the army with what is needed. 

 

Essos is too far away to be good logistical base. Most of the supplies will have to be locally sourced, unless you believe Daenerys will acquire services of the US Navy Expeditionary Logistics Support Group. And yeah, belief "I am on a massive wall, these guys are idiots" is an excellent morale builder.

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

George Martin can do what he wants.  He can make Patchface the most formidable warrior ever to carry a sword.  But we are making this evaluation based on what we have read from the text.  And when a man like Robert fear the Dothraki, there is a good reason to believe that they will be very effective in Westeros.  The addition of the Unsullied provides a magnificent synergy. 

 

Indeed he can. But if he has any sense at all, Daenerys' army will either a) be mostly Westerosi and/or from Free Cities or b) will not be a major threat.

[The Commentator]

Westeros will lose this war. The combined strength of the Dothraki Khalasars and the Unsullied infantry will be too overwhelming.   The men in the iron suits will make a lot of noise before they go down though. Clang, clang, clang. While being dragged behind the Dothraki horses. 

[Craving Peaches]

59 minutes ago, The Commentator said:

Westeros will lose this war. The combined strength of the Dothraki Khalasars and the Unsullied infantry will be too overwhelming.

No it won't...

59 minutes ago, The Commentator said:

The men in the iron suits will make a lot of noise before they go down though. Clang, clang, clang. While being dragged behind the Dothraki horses. 

That's how to ensure no one ever kneels to Daenerys and fights to the death rather than surrender to her barbarians.

Daenerys wants to be Queen of Westeros, so presumably she doesn't want to kill or turn everyone against her...

[SeanF]

I can’t see Dany receiving supplies from overseas any further than Pentos.  And a vast army from overseas means 30,000 at the maximum.  An army that size would also require thousands of horses and draft animals, thousands of servants and camp followers, and hundreds of transport ships, with warships to guard them.

That all points to Dany needing allies domestically.

 

[Darth Sidious]

The only Westerosi adults left alive will be widows. The Dothraki will mop up the levies and the knights leading them. The Eyrie will hold out the longest but they too will succumb. 
 

The knight class will put up a good fight but there are not enough of them. And this war is not a duel. The discipline and training of Dany’s Unsullied will prevail over the knights.
 

Strong Belwas will be cleaning his back side on these dead knights. The battle fields will be filled by the aroma of dead Onioned Knights. 

The castles are not large enough to shelter the population. Only the lord of the castle, his family, and his few knights. The food they can gather and store will not last long. Surrender will be the smart choice. 

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Darth Sidious said:

The only Westerosi adults left alive will be widows

Then so much for Daenerys being Queen of anything.

1 minute ago, Darth Sidious said:

The Dothraki will mop up the levies and the knights leading them.

Unlikely for multiple reasons.

1 minute ago, Darth Sidious said:

And this war is not a duel. The discipline and training of Dany’s Unsullied will prevail over the knights

Doesn't matter how disciplined and trained they are if they fight with bronze age weapons and tactics against knights.

2 minutes ago, Darth Sidious said:

Strong Belwas will be cleaning his back side on these dead knights. The battle fields will be filled by the aroma of dead Onioned Knights. 

Not really because the knights won't be acting like the idiot Meereenese champion.

2 minutes ago, Darth Sidious said:

The food they can gather and store will not last long. Surrender will be the smart choice. 

If it is well provisioned it can last a very long time. And people might choose to die rather than surrender to the barbarians who are slaughtering their people en masse.

 

[Jaenara Belarys]

20 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Now, it is obvious to me that the Church of Daenerys folks are not going to be convinced

FTFY.

No, we probably won't be convinced because we can use common sense to figure out that Macedonian phalanxes, or whatever formation the Unsullied use and half naked discount Mongols won't do too much against a semi-professional army that the likes of the north could muster for the WOT5K. 

It's not that we have a bias against Dany. I like her, she's my favorite character, I want her to win, but I also can think realistically. 

The main point against Westeros is the logistical problem, but let's face it, that'll be an even larger problem for Dany. Even with a wildly optimistic assessment of Essosi support (lower Free Cities and Pentos), there'll have to be a massive organization structure to handle the food and fodder alone, not to mention spare parts, weapons, armor, more troops, etc. 

Let's not pretend that Dany has the administrative and shipping functions of the entire US military.  

[The Lord of the Crossing]

The majority of men in Westeros are not soldiers.  Even the ones who are men at arms are mostly household guards.  Think of Fat Tommard.  That is the average soldier in Westeros.  That is what will go to battle against a very professional army of The Unsullied.  And that is what will lose to The Unsullied.  Most of the trained knights will go down heroically though. 

[astarkchoice]

Already covered the stremgths and weakness of her forces so wel cover other factors

 

Pros:

1)westeros has and is going through major open warfare and invasion. Many factions have lost a lot of manpower to resist dany and we know there will be further huge losses before things are done (reach vs ironborn, red wedding 2.0, battle in the north etc)

2) danys war to free all slaves may land her control of many of the free cities should they rise up , this also may gain her the support of the faceless men given their foundations in anti slavery.

3) victorian is an idiot and hates euron..it seems highly likely he may bring the iron fleet to her side and capture  many of the huge slave manned volantis fleet (whos slaves may turn on their masters anyway)

4)she may have many allies in westeros already , we know from briennes pov many around the crownlands are targ loyalists, the reach may have many defections esp given the growing tyrell lannister rift

 

Cons: 

1)winter is comming in an already battle scarred country making logistics very hard even for her robotic unsullied and hardy dothraki  not to mention the not so  small matter of the army of the dead to deal with!

2) magic is rising and euron may very well take one of her dragons given his horn and the warlocks help, hell house celtigar may rise to power too if they know how to use their krakken horn.

3)dany is now the messiah to the fire cult thus is to be opposed as an infidel by the growing sparrows armies.

4)the slavers from slavers bay ,new ghis, quarth to the free cities will not abandon one of the main staples of their economies without a fight , rich powerful lords and merchants are not  to be made enemies of lightly

 

X factors:

1) iron bank is calling in debts everywhere, given the masses of sellswords and assasins all over essos they may chose to help or hinder dany , we know theyl lose money to the loss of the slave trade unless they have invested heavily in the fall of slavery ( possible esp given their anti slavery roots.)

2) dorne: once a definite ally and one of the few westeros regions with its military intact and highly defenable due to its geography but now word may come that the prince was openly mocked and/or burned alive by danys dragons!

3)disease : does dany have the pale mare, does her army ? Has the golden company brought greyscale back to westeros?

4) the anti slavery movement all over the free cities and the maesters may  have reservations about her dragons, while they may back her for now  the threat of dragons being back + possibly breeding represents a danger to all mankind or at least the possibility of a select few utterly dominating it as the valarians of old did...the faceless men or maesters (who may have finished them off in westeros)  may take action to ensure danys dragons dont outlive her campaign or before it ends.

 

5) jon friggin snow! If he comes back from the dead as many feel he will he not only has a better claim but also has the old valyrian blood AND the stark warg gifts in one thus he could very likely take one or all of her dragons.

 

6)red.wedding and upcomming red wedding 2.0 ...invincible on dragonback yes but  shes vunerable on the ground and the old traditions of being safe at dinner under someones roof  are out the window now!

[Craving Peaches]

43 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

2) magic is rising and euron may very well take one of her dragons given his horn and the warlocks help, hell house celtigar may rise to power too if they know how to use their krakken horn.

I, for one, cannot wait to see a dragon vs kraken battle.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I, for one, cannot wait to see a dragon vs kraken battle.

As long as the red wedding 2.0 doesnt disapoint like the tv shows did il be happy

[The Commentator]

22 hours ago, SeanF said:

I can’t see Dany receiving supplies from overseas any further than Pentos.  And a vast army from overseas means 30,000 at the maximum.  An army that size would also require thousands of horses and draft animals, thousands of servants and camp followers, and hundreds of transport ships, with warships to guard them.

That all points to Dany needing allies domestically.

 

Dany already has allies who will give her as much provisions as her formidable armies will require. The Widow and the slaves of Volantis will win their freedom and make available the city’s resources to The Mother. Benerro and his church will support her. I am almost certain Braavos will transport her troops and provisions. The Braavosi have been protecting Dany and Viserys from the very beginning. They are not about to stop now.  
 

I’m not claiming her troops will be living in luxury or plenty but they will be better provisioned than Westeros. Food insecurity has already began in Westeros. Hoarding a large quantity behind the walls will be very, very difficult. Renegades like the Brotherhood without banners will not willingly hand over their grain to the nobles.  Only the Vale has a large store of grains. It will not last long as there will be people raiding the supply.  

[The Commentator]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I, for one, cannot wait to see a dragon vs kraken battle.

I cannot wait to see a battle of the dire wolves. 

[SeanF]

7 minutes ago, The Commentator said:

Dany already has allies who will give her as much provisions as her formidable armies will require. The Widow and the slaves of Volantis will win their freedom and make available the city’s resources to The Mother. Benerro and his church will support her. I am almost certain Braavos will transport her troops and provisions. The Braavosi have been protecting Dany and Viserys from the very beginning. They are not about to stop now.  
 

I’m not claiming her troops will be living in luxury or plenty but they will be better provisioned than Westeros. Food insecurity has already began in Westeros. Hoarding a large quantity behind the walls will be very, very difficult. Renegades like the Brotherhood without banners will not willingly hand over their grain to the nobles.  Only the Vale has a large store of grains. It will not last long as there will be people raiding the supply.  

The thing is that pre-railways, and pre-refrigeration, it was always hard to supply armies, other than by having them live off the land.  Logistics in this tale are ropey (Renly's 100,000 strong army would have starved to death for example) so Martin may ignore the issue.

Armies on the coast, or marching upriver, can be supplied by boats, but that's not an option when armies are marching inland, without a navigable river nearby. 

I'm sure Volantis will supply a lot of ships, but it's too far to be supplying food. Braavos and Pentos probably can supply food, but not to those forces that are marching inland.  The East may well supply money for the campaign, so that Dany can buy food locally, rather than pillaging it. 

[Craving Peaches]

32 minutes ago, The Commentator said:

I cannot wait to see a battle of the dire wolves. 

What direwolves are going to be fighting each other?

[Aebram]

7 hours ago, The Commentator said:

The Braavosi have been protecting Dany and Viserys from the very beginning. They are not about to stop now.  

Aren't they? 

It's true that the Sealord witnessed that pact between Targ and Martell; and Dany and Viserys lived in Braavos for a time (possibly) ... but all of that was at a time when there had been no living dragons in the world for a century or more.  Given their history, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if the Braavosi have a change of heart, now that Dany has three dragons.

Also, what's Red Wedding 2.0?  Sorry, I must have missed that thread.

[Ring3r]

Economics enter into it only slightly, IMO.  Dany has dragons, and thousands of soldiers who are loyal to her because they literally owe her their lives and freedom.

There will be some houses in Westeros who remain Targ loyal, and they'll be split between her and Faegon.....but Faegon does not have dragons.

It'll be a hard fight, but if she can gain the loyalty of Dorne and the North (the two areas most likely to support her in the first place), she will force whomever claims king's landing to fight a two front war, without dragons, and she will win.

I'd wager that geography and "technology" is more important than economics when it comes to war.  Dany is going to have both.