Jump to content

The Economics of Warfare


Recommended Posts

I made a comment on the subject of Essos that the scale went up when George Martin took his readers to the vast Dothraki Sea, Vaes Tolorro, and Slaver's Bay.  It is not just the scale of the places that increased but the population and size of the armies as well.  Volantis and Meeren are enormous compared to King's Landing.  The military capability and the destructive forces increased proportionally to the size of the population and the more advanced war science in Essos.  That is before we even talk about Drogon and his brothers.  Here we are only entering the Unsullied and the Dothraki into the formula.  They are scary enough on their own.  The Targaryen army will be further bolstered by the freedmen who are undergoing military training.  Dany should be able to win a hard fought campaign with her Dothraki and Unsullied.  If she chooses to do it that way.  I am not so sure she will.  We know she cares for her soldiers.  We know she has a good feel for which of her assets to risk and which to save for later.  She will want to lessen the casualties on her side.  For that, she will employ mercenaries.  Mercenaries will be at the front.  Promises of land and titles will be made.  She will have allies in Westeros and they too will be given promises.  The so called Second Houses from each kingdom will be waiting in line for their turn to upset the Great Houses and they will support her claim.  An example is Lady Dustin in the north, Walder in the riverlands, and the Hightowers in the Reach.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, James West said:

It is not just the scale of the places that increased but the population and size of the armies as well. 

6 minutes ago, James West said:

The military capability and the destructive forces increased proportionally to the size of the population

The issue is that...

7 minutes ago, James West said:

the more advanced war science in Essos.

They do not have more advanced war science. Take the unsullied for example. Bronze age equipment and tactics. And these are supposed to be the finest Essosi soldiers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The issue is that...

They do not have more advanced war science. Take the unsullied for example. Bronze age equipment and tactics. And these are supposed to be the finest Essosi soldiers.

That is what they trained in.  Do you judge the knights because they train with wooden swords?  No.  Do you judge the quality of a Braavosi swordmaster because they train with wooden swords?  The Unsullied are provided with those weapons upon their purchase.  The buyer is under no restrictions to limit them to those.  She can equip them with armor and if they can afford it, Valyrian Steel weapons.  

Their tactics are actually very advanced.  The only development to make those tactics dated is gunpowder.  Absent gunpowder, those tactics are effective.  They were good enough to force Valyria to fight hard before beating Ghis.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Dany is going to show up with an army full of foreigners, most of whom have a well-deserved reputation for brutality and destruction.  One that has to use ships, since armies don't walk on water very well.  And we know how much the Dothraki like being on ships.  And transporting horses aboard ship is not easy from what I recall.  I sense a serious fight brewing.

Westeros just finished fighting a big war.  Yes, they are a bit tired and bedraggled.  They also have recent fighting experience and training, not to mention lots of leftover weaponry they're already familiar with.  And the peasantry will be fighting for their homes, families, and livelihoods.  You don't want to fight these people under those circumstances.

If she has local support, well and good.  She can base her troops there and use their supplies.  But that sort of thing requires prearrangement, which is not yet in evidence. On the other hand, if she has to make contested landings and rely on her own supply chain, she's going to be in big trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, James West said:

Do you judge the knights because they train with wooden swords? 

Knights do not train with wooden swords. They train with steel.

2 hours ago, James West said:

The buyer is under no restrictions to limit them to those.  She can equip them with armor and if they can afford it

They haven't been trained to use armour though.

2 hours ago, James West said:

Their tactics are actually very advanced.  The only development to make those tactics dated is gunpowder.  Absent gunpowder, those tactics are effective.  They were good enough to force Valyria to fight hard before beating Ghis. 

Many others have discussed why this is not the case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Westeros is already in disarray because of bad leadership from the Baratheons, Lannisters, and Starks. The supposed defense, the Watch,  against the existential threat, the Others, is in chaos because of their crazed commander Jon Snow. No more loans are coming from the Iron Bank, because of Cersei and Arya. Westeros is in no shape to fight.  Daenerys should be able to defeat them even if she chooses to not use her dragons.  Food and weapons will be coming from Essos to support the Targaryen restoration.  Westeros will fall in less than a year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, James West said:

Their tactics are actually very advanced.  The only development to make those tactics dated is gunpowder.  Absent gunpowder, those tactics are effective.  They were good enough to force Valyria to fight hard before beating Ghis.  

Unsullied tactics are literally tactics for idiots. They are based on Spartans, in large part, and Spartans were morons. Unsullied, if anything, are even worse.

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/tactical-overview-the-unsullied/

In fact, Unsullied copy the worst aspects of the Spartan society. I will drop ACOUP links below for more detailed reading, but fact is that rather than producing absolute badasses, Unsullied training - dehumanization, deindividualization and breaking down of human spirit and dignity - will have produced broken automatons incapable of acting without guidance from above, without actually giving them any superior combat skills in exchange. It literally ruined people for absolutely no gain: we have no reason to believe that an Unsullied is in any way a better soldier - not a better fighter, but a better soldier - than your average Westerosi levy infantryman. Despite the brutality of the agoge system - which Unsullied training replicates - Spartiates were not, in fact, better hoplites than citizen militiamen which most other poleis relied on. They were decidedly average.

https://acoup.blog/2019/08/16/collections-this-isnt-sparta-part-i-spartan-school/

And Unsullied tactics are also similar to Spartans - form a shield wall, hold the line. That's it, that is what the Unsullied do. There is literally nothing advanced about these tactics, they are in fact tactics for dummies, something you don't actually need any training for. All you need is fear of disappointing your comrades, and that is something any army provides. In other words, excessive Unsullied training is completely wasted, because they use tactics that are perfectly usable by militia. Hell, 15th century European militias used pike block tactics which were far more sophisticated than phalanx tactics. In fact, Spartan phalanx was - despite their "Spartan training" which the Unsullied emulate - completely incapable of complex maneuvers - which, I should note, Macedonian professional phalangites, Roman landowning legionaries and Byzantine and later European landowning troops did with regularity.

https://acoup.blog/2019/09/20/collections-this-isnt-sparta-part-vi-spartan-battle/

So yeah: Unsullied tactics are not advanced even by the standards of antiquity. Compared to tactics we actually see utilized by Westerosi armies, Unsullied tactics are basically child's game. Hell, wildlings utilize more complex tactics than what we see Unsullied do, and these are just armed civilians and hunters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/13/2022 at 12:56 PM, SeanF said:

The thing is that pre-railways, and pre-refrigeration, it was always hard to supply armies, other than by having them live off the land.  Logistics in this tale are ropey (Renly's 100,000 strong army would have starved to death for example) so Martin may ignore the issue.

Armies on the coast, or marching upriver, can be supplied by boats, but that's not an option when armies are marching inland, without a navigable river nearby. 

I'm sure Volantis will supply a lot of ships, but it's too far to be supplying food. Braavos and Pentos probably can supply food, but not to those forces that are marching inland.  The East may well supply money for the campaign, so that Dany can buy food locally, rather than pillaging it. 

Surprised that Martin would ignore logistics like that given his emphasis on realism.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Unsullied tactics are literally tactics for idiots. They are based on Spartans, in large part, and Spartans were morons. Unsullied, if anything, are even worse.

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/tactical-overview-the-unsullied/

In fact, Unsullied copy the worst aspects of the Spartan society. I will drop ACOUP links below for more detailed reading, but fact is that rather than producing absolute badasses, Unsullied training - dehumanization, deindividualization and breaking down of human spirit and dignity - will have produced broken automatons incapable of acting without guidance from above, without actually giving them any superior combat skills in exchange. It literally ruined people for absolutely no gain: we have no reason to believe that an Unsullied is in any way a better soldier - not a better fighter, but a better soldier - than your average Westerosi levy infantryman. Despite the brutality of the agoge system - which Unsullied training replicates - Spartiates were not, in fact, better hoplites than citizen militiamen which most other poleis relied on. They were decidedly average.

https://acoup.blog/2019/08/16/collections-this-isnt-sparta-part-i-spartan-school/

And Unsullied tactics are also similar to Spartans - form a shield wall, hold the line. That's it, that is what the Unsullied do. There is literally nothing advanced about these tactics, they are in fact tactics for dummies, something you don't actually need any training for. All you need is fear of disappointing your comrades, and that is something any army provides. In other words, excessive Unsullied training is completely wasted, because they use tactics that are perfectly usable by militia. Hell, 15th century European militias used pike block tactics which were far more sophisticated than phalanx tactics. In fact, Spartan phalanx was - despite their "Spartan training" which the Unsullied emulate - completely incapable of complex maneuvers - which, I should note, Macedonian professional phalangites, Roman landowning legionaries and Byzantine and later European landowning troops did with regularity.

https://acoup.blog/2019/09/20/collections-this-isnt-sparta-part-vi-spartan-battle/

So yeah: Unsullied tactics are not advanced even by the standards of antiquity. Compared to tactics we actually see utilized by Westerosi armies, Unsullied tactics are basically child's game. Hell, wildlings utilize more complex tactics than what we see Unsullied do, and these are just armed civilians and hunters.

Well, hopefully Unsullied tactics will work better than running light cavalry into the equivalent of a brick wall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, The Commentator said:

Westeros is already in disarray because of bad leadership from the Baratheons, Lannisters, and Starks. The supposed defense, the Watch,  against the existential threat, the Others, is in chaos because of their crazed commander Jon Snow. No more loans are coming from the Iron Bank, because of Cersei and Arya. Westeros is in no shape to fight.  Daenerys should be able to defeat them even if she chooses to not use her dragons.  Food and weapons will be coming from Essos to support the Targaryen restoration.  Westeros will fall in less than a year. 

Why would Essos support her? She has support among the masses, but not from those with the means.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well, hopefully Unsullied tactics will work better than running light cavalry into the equivalent of a brick wall.

Yeah, it would be difficult for them to do worse.

7 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Why would Essos support her? She has support among the masses, but not from those with the means.

I think he assumes she will conquer cities and install her own puppet rulers. Also, Braavos is against slavery... but it is also against dragons and magic, so...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Why would Essos support her? She has support among the masses, but not from those with the means.

Each free city (other than Braavos) is 75-85% slave, so that’s a gigantic fifth column for Daenerys.  Stir them into revolt, and the rich can be asset-stripped.

Now if (Spartan If) the Masters have sense (the Ghiscari are morons but the elites of the free cities may be more canny) they’ll treat their slave soldiers as an elite, so they remain loyal against external enemies. They may start to sell their support to the highest bidder among the masters, like the Janissaries, but they’ll still fight foreigners.

But overall, the masters are just one bad defeat (like the Spartans actually) away from disaster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/13/2022 at 12:43 PM, The Commentator said:

Dany already has allies who will give her as much provisions as her formidable armies will require. The Widow and the slaves of Volantis will win their freedom and make available the city’s resources to The Mother. Benerro and his church will support her. I am almost certain Braavos will transport her troops and provisions. The Braavosi have been protecting Dany and Viserys from the very beginning. They are not about to stop now.  
 

Have they now? So where were they after Viserys and Daenerys were turfed out and wandered the continent for a decade? Doran supposedly had them in his pocket (along with the Archon of Tyrosh but that's another matter) yet neither of them lifts a finger to help the exiled royals (and made Viserys an uncontrollable spanner).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/12/2022 at 5:10 PM, Darth Sidious said:

The castles are not large enough to shelter the population. Only the lord of the castle, his family, and his few knights. The food they can gather and store will not last long. Surrender will be the smart choice. 

Neither will the food supplied by Essos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Surprised that Martin would ignore logistics like that given his emphasis on realism.

Most fantasy writers do.  Tolkien was one who didn’t, due to his military background.

Valuable stuff for the army can be brought in from overseas, spices, sugar, salt, olive oil, wine and spirits, which can travel and be preserved.  Livestock too.

But, what the army and its horses and draft animals need above all, are grain, fodder, and grass, which must be obtained locally.   The third of those should not be hard to obtain, but getting the first two is going to be a massive undertaking.  You’re looking at about  1 kilo per day per soldier, and 2 per horse.  Once you get to 30,000 soldiers, a similar number of horses, and perhaps 20,000 camp followers, well, that’s one hell of a load of grain and fodder you need to procure every week.

That’s where Eastern money, confiscated from the wealthy, is so important.  Buying the grain and fodder keeps the locals much happier than pillaging it, even if you are leaving the locals no choice but to sell.  That works especially well if your local rivals are dependent on pillage. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/11/2022 at 11:04 PM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

and why Daenerys can defeat the forces of Westeros.

I have read the two threads debating the effectiveness of Daenerys Targaryen's armed forces against the forces of Westeros.  Now, it is obvious to me that the Anti-Daenerys folks are not going to be convinced, so this thread may not be for them. They have dug themselves into a position and will stay there.  But for those who are already on Team Daenerys or who possess a reasonable level of objectivity, read on. 

The armed of forces of Westeros are composed of peasants, farm workers, craftsmen, fishermen, and builders.  Soldiering is not their livelihoods.  Most of them have never been in battle.  A wealthy family like the Lannisters might be able to equip most of their soldiers with decent quality weapon but they are the exception.  The economy of Westeros cannot support a large, standing army.  What it has is a small number of knights.  Some are very good, most are going to be mediocre, and a significant number are there for show.  They would make Oznak look like a pro.  You see, in Westeros, the people who will be called to fight are the economic engine.  They produce the goods needed for the population to eat, have shelter, and maintain livable conditions.  Any lengthy war will be devastating because the leaders will send their labor force to go to battle.  Just about everything needed by the people will stop being produced.  Social order will break down.  They will definitely run to hide inside their castles.  But as you can see from Roose's dilema in Winterfell, supplies will run out very quickly.  Battle horses will become food after the mice and vermin have been consumed.  There will be desertion where soldiers will sneak out at night. Men will turn to cannibalism.  Are mothers psychologically prepared to see their farmboy sons die?  I don't think so.  Farmboys are not supposed to die in battle.  Most have never experienced battle. 

The Dothraki, The Unsullied, and the mercenaries are all professional fighting forces.  To the Dothraki, warfare IS the economy.  The culture they come from are accustomed to casualties and the hardships of war.  The Unsullied are even better.  The dragons are not needed as long as Daenerys can bring a number that is sufficiently close to the number of the enemy.  So if Westeros can squeeze 50K able-bodies from their farms, Daenerys will need close to that.  And all of hers will be able-bodied, armed, trained, and by then, experienced.  Of the 50K from the Westeros side, maybe 5K will be annointed knights.  They won't all have good quality armor.  It depends on their finances.  Daenerys will need the advantage she has because it is usually harder to be on the offense.  The attacking force need the advantage in most cases. 

If Team Daenerys can build war machines out of boat timber, like they did, they can surely build effective equipment to lay siege to any castle in Westeros.  They have no need to batter the gates or the walls.  Just the belief can put stress on the army hiding inside.  Food, arrows, weapons, and horses can always be resupplied from Essos and the Free Cities.  Daenerys will have Essos to support her campaign.  The men whom she rescued from slavery will be bringing important skills.  Crafts people, healers, carpenters, farmers, and herders.  They will provide the army with what is needed. 

George Martin can do what he wants.  He can make Patchface the most formidable warrior ever to carry a sword.  But we are making this evaluation based on what we have read from the text.  And when a man like Robert fear the Dothraki, there is a good reason to believe that they will be very effective in Westeros.  The addition of the Unsullied provides a magnificent synergy. 

 

It's the quality of the training that gives her Unsullied the greatest advantage over any other army in Westeros.  A decade of training and hardening made the Unsullied what they are.  Occasional training that the small folk of Westeros are put through just cannot compare.  The Dothraki will serve as the cavalry.  Westeros will be taken by force if the lords decide to be stubborn about it and you know some will be.  

Westeros economy is already in terrible shape.  Robert's leadership brought down the economy.  Robb and the Greyjoys made the situation many times worse.  Cersei is not helping at all.  The lords do not have the stomach for more war.  I think most of them will negotiate for peace.  The holdout will be the north.  I expect the north to be turned to wights and Dany will have to burn them at the Trident.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...