U.S. Politics: Rs Stand Around While Ds Try to Rescue Them

[DMC]

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Fetterman's lead has slowly been whittling down in PA, and Warnock still maintains a tenuous lead in GA, but thats really the best chance for the Dems to hold their 50/50 position.

It's silly to write off Nevada.  That's about as tossup as you can get.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

It's silly to write off Nevada.  That's about as tossup as you can get.

How “unexpected” is the turn out due to Dobbs going to be?  Can you hazard a guess after the unexpected results in Kansas, the Alaska House race, and the New York House Race in a “safe” Republican district?

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How “unexpected” is the turn out due to Dobbs going to be?  Can you hazard a guess after the unexpected results in Kansas, the Alaska House race, and the New York House Race in a “safe” Republican district?

I do think turnout is going to be very high, perhaps even top 2018, but I don't think that will necessarily lead to Dem victories.  The current "peaked too soon" talk is a little overwrought - it was always going to tighten/go the opposition party's way at the end and people seemed to be overestimating the Dems' chances for a while there anyway - but the true part about that is the economy is reclaiming its predominate place on voters' minds.  Which is not good for the Dems.  I do think Dobbs will help in certain races, but I'm not particularly bullish on it making up for the economy and the other classic countervailing environmental factors.

[Zorral]

Testing.

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

It's silly to write off Nevada.  That's about as tossup as you can get.

If you look at the last 8 polls out of GA and NV, 6 have Warnock up and 6 have Laxalt up. Assuming polls are quite representative of the electorate (not a given for NV IMO), I'd put the most probabilistic outcome at Warnock/Laxalt win. I know in the past Reid outperformed his polls, but I think this time (just a gut feeling), it may be Laxalt who imay end up doing better.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I'd put the most probabilistic outcome at Warnock/Laxalt win.

I mean, I guess - and certainly both Fetterman and Warnock are safer bets than Cortez Masto, but I just get the impression you're writing off Nevada when the probabilities there are the closest to, and just about, 50/50 of any Senate race.

Your Warnock/Laxalt polling comparison is terrible.  First of all, in those 8 polls Warnock is averaging a 2.4% lead while Laxalt is averaging exactly 1%.  Second, all of Georgia's last 8 polls have taken place in October, four of Nevada's 8 polls were conducted in mid to late September.  And third, two of the four most recent polls have Cortes Masto leading, whereas Walker is only leading in a poll he sponsored.

[LongRider]

Just tryin’ to help out, 

 

[Fez]

I think the thing to remember about Dobbs is that it, along with lingering memories of 1/6 and the ongoing fascist talk, is all that's keeping Democrats in this election at all. If Republicans still acted even the way they did circa 2015 and SCOTUS had gone Roberts' way of mostly gutting Roe but keeping it in place in name, Democrats would on pace for a truly historic loss. Certainly on par with 2010, but maybe even worse; inflation is a political killer.

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Fez said:

I think the thing to remember about Dobbs is that it, along with lingering memories of 1/6 and the ongoing fascist talk, is all that's keeping Democrats in this election at all.

Yeah I think this will certainly stem the tide in the House - mitigating the type of shellacking received in 2010 (although we should keep in mind, in terms of that comparison, the amount of seats lost was also due to the Dems overperforming in the House for two straight cycles, whereas here they actually lost seats last cycle).  I'm not sure how much impact they'll have in the competitive Senate and gubernatorial races though.  Like, if Dobbs went Roberts' way, I suspect most races would still look like they do now more or less.

[LongRider]

Very interesting in Alaska.

 

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Very interesting in Alaska.

Yeah I saw the other day that politico now considers her the favorite.  Cook has the race as a tossup.

[ThinkerX]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

Yeah I saw the other day that politico now considers her the favorite.  Cook has the race as a tossup.

I figure Peltola has a fair shot at winning, mostly because the R camp is divided. Peltola campaign adds do pop up on my Facebook. The comments on those are mostly positive; and the not-so-positive comments tend towards incoherence. (Best I can figure those posters are either on a really bad drug trip or didn't make it past the 4th grade education wise)

[DMC]

18 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Best I can figure those posters are either on a really bad drug trip or didn't make it past the 4th grade education wise

So, Republicans.

[ThinkerX]

The R's lose another legal challenge to Bidens student loan forgiveness package. Alas, there are plenty of other lawsuits.

 

Judge dismisses Republican states' challenge to block student loan forgiveness plan (msn.com)

 

U.S. District Judge Henry Edward Autrey, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, wrote in a 19-page decision that states did not make clear enough the type of harm that is required to have their lawsuit heard in court.

 

“While Plaintiffs present important and significant challenges to the debt relief plan, the current Plaintiffs are unable to proceed to the resolution of these challenges,” Autrey wrote.

Autrey made clear that his ruling was centered on the states' lack of standing and was not a statement about the legality of Biden's plan. Republican state attorneys general from Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina were part of the lawsuit.

[IheartIheartTesla]

18 hours ago, DMC said:

 And third, two of the four most recent polls have Cortes Masto leading, whereas Walker is only leading in a poll he sponsored.

Not in the ones 538 uses in its models (which is filtered for recency, sample size etc.) : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/nevada/ which brings Laxalt up slightly more to +1.5. In the case of GA they do still consider the Walker funded poll which is the only one that shows him up ... so I guess that still bolsters my point if you want to ignore it. At any rate I already said it was a gut feeling based in part that Nevada is hard to poll and Ralston has been ringing the alarm bells about D registration falling behind, so I'm comfortable with asserting the polls are underestimating laxalt strength.

 

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Not in the ones 538 uses in its models (which is filtered for recency, sample size etc.) : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/nevada/ which brings Laxalt up slightly more to +1.5.

Yes, in the ones 538 uses for their models.  That list is just the polls that have the "biggest impact."  Click on the "See all Nevada Senate polls" and you'll get the page I previously linked to.

[Martell Spy]

Steve Bannon Sentenced To 4 Months In Prison For Defying House Jan. 6 Subpoena

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/10/21/steve-bannon-sentenced-to-4-months-in-prison-for-defying-house-jan-6-subpoena/?sh=2a36bc614b84

Quote

 

U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols sentenced Bannon to four months in prison for contempt of Congress, along with a $6,500 fine, multiple outlets report.

He also stayed the sentence while Bannon appeals his ruling, however—meaning he won’t go to prison before the appeal plays out—though Politico reports Nichols stressed that appeal must be “timely.”

 

 

[Mindwalker]

TFG has finally been officially subpoenaed by the Jan6 committee.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

That an elected Representative can openly declare themselves a fascist is just insane…

 

[ThinkerX]

Couple things caught my eye on the news feeds today...

First up, militant extremists in the US are having a really bad week. 

 

Patriot Front sued; New Mexico Civil Guard shut down: The week in extremism (msn.com)

 

It was a bad week in court for extremist groups. The Texas-headquartered white supremacist organization Patriot Front has been hit with a lawsuit from the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. Meanwhile, in New Mexico, a militia group has been ordered to disband and slapped with a fine, and the Oath Keepers Jan. 6 trial continues.

 

Second, some sort of minor furor over voting machines in an eastern state.

 

Pennsylvania alleges Fulton County breached security of voting machines for second time (msn.com)

Reuters) - A rural Pennsylvania county violated a court order when it allowed a forensics company to examine voting equipment in July, marking the county's second security breach of the machines, the state's top election official alleged in a court filing.

The latest alleged breach came to light last month when Fulton County filed a lawsuit against election equipment maker Dominion Voting Systems, citing purported issues discovered in an examination of the equipment by Speckin Forensics LLC.

In a Pennsylvania Supreme Court filing on Tuesday, lawyers for the Secretary of the Commonwealth said the county's move to grant access to the equipment violated the court's Jan. 27 injunction prohibiting third-party access to the machines.

"What is certain is that, in allowing Speckin to access and image the electronic voting machines in July 2022, Petitioners openly thumbed their noses at a clear and direct order of this Court," the lawyers wrote.