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Internation Events X - Why such a long break...?


TheLastWolf
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9 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

And it's official Lula won.

I just saw that too.  Well. Better than the other one, who lives in rtup's and putin's pockets.  Though our Haitian friends don't particularly like Lula, they REALLY don't like Bolsonaro.  Three days ago Haitians held rallies outside the Brasilian embassy in Port-au-Prince to show support for Lula.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/10/28/haitian-peasants-declare-support-for-lulas-candidacy-for-president-of-brazil/

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It's only officially official when the new president is safely established in the President's office and been sworn in. If USA 2020 has taught us anything it's that democracy some time hangs on one or two individuals making the choice to do the right thing in the face of overwhelming pressure to do the wrong thing.

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Lula wins by less than 2%, and now we're in the worst case scenario.

I'll explain: a comfortable Lula win would mean Bolsonaro would have no leg to stand on and would be relegated to the dust bin of history. Without a Republican party like Trump has in the US with a massive presence in nearly every state, he'd still have followers, but would be mostly a fringe one and the right and center-right would begin to move away from him.

Meanwhile, if Lula lost, even if by little, then he would be the one relegated forced to call it quits. With his age, it's unlikely he would run again, and the left would be forced to find new leaders- something Lula always avoided by moving to quash every new name that rose and could be a challenger- and new ideas (Lula has mostly the fame since the 70's and 80's).

In this scenario, it means Lula is in power, but Bolsonaro is not going anywhere, with enough support to become the main voice of opposition and enough institutional support to cause trouble. He'll also be able much more easily to claim fraud (even though it's non-sense) or political bias against him and persecution in the electoral court and the Supreme Court (which as I pointed out, he does have some arguments, as it's not just him or conservatives complaining about overreach or abuse of power).

Hell, the new governor of Brazil's largest state (bigger than California, with about 20% of Brazil's population) didn't even live there and was elected entirely on Bolsonaro's say so.

Don't expect him to go away, or for the situation in Brazil to cool any time soon.

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15 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

now we're in the worst case scenario

Just speaking internationally alone, the worst case scenario would be for Putin-and-rump submissive Bolsonaro to have been elected by any margin at all. It would also be lighting additional fires under the US fascists.

Edited by Zorral
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Terrible weekend generally when you look at South Korea, India and Somalia but the world does need to see the politics of people like Bolsonaro lose more often.  Lula depresses me too but the rest of the world needed him to win, if only from a climate change perspective.

I suppose Bolsonaro will stick around but it will be interesting to see what comes to light now that he is the defeated Brazilian President.

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Oh, and I forgot to mention perhaps the most hilarious story of this election:

The election for the government of Bahia (Brazil's 4th largest state) seemed like it would be easy- for well over a year before, the comfortable frontunner with about 60-70% of the votes was Antonio Carlos Magalhães Neto, or ACM Neto, whose grandfather ACM (Neto means grandson for those of you who don't speak Portuguese) was governor 3 times, senator for more than 20 years, including being president of the Senate, José Sarney's Minister of Energy (and probably his closest ally), and who was the most influential figure of the state in the 20th century (his uncle, ACM's son,  was also speaker of the House before dying of an heart attack at 40 years old).

To top that, he was mayor of the capital and largest city Salvador for 8 years, despite the fact his family usually had problems to win there before, and made his successor. Many speculated he would even run for president in 2026.

But Bahia is a state that has around 80% of the population of black or mixed-race heritage, so ACM Neto had a great idea: to say he was black. (To clarify, here's an image of what he looks like) He declared this in his forms to register to run, and even when the press found out, decided to double down on it, despite the fact he always declared as white before, and since he comes from THE traditional family in the state, everyone knows exactly how everyone in his family looks like.

To make a long story short, he lost all momentum and ended up being defeated today by a guy that never run for office before...and who really happens to be black.

While of course this isn't the only reason for in his defeat, the fact that he managed to lose only by 5% makes clear it was a decisive factor and he would probably win otherwise (in no small part because Lula and PT before the incident didn't invest all that much in that governor race because they saw as a lost one, but afterwards jumped full steam into it).

 

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Well, maybe Boçalnaro should have staged another faux attempt on his life… it seems to have helped the first time. 
And sadly I agree w/ others, he won’t go away, and probably won’t concede either. He’s not called Tropical Trump for nothing. 

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Well, maybe Boçalnaro should have staged another faux attempt on his life… it seems to have helped the first time. 
And sadly I agree w/ others, he won’t go away, and probably won’t concede either. He’s not called Tropical Trump for nothing. 

Trump fled on a jet airplaine like the coward he is.

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On 10/26/2022 at 9:42 AM, Mindwalker said:

China Has Opened Up Secret Police Stations in These Countries

Beijing's law enforcement tactics beyond its borders are under scrutiny after a report revealed dozens of cities—including New York—were hosting Chinese overseas police stations.

A pilot program run by the public security bureaus of Fuzhou and Qingtian counties—of coastal Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, respectively—had established 54 "overseas police service centers" across five continents, 25 cities and 21 countries as of June 21, according to Spain-based NGO Safeguard Defenders.

...

In the United States, the report's open-source data indicated one such service center in New York City. In Canada, three were established in Toronto.

In South America, there was one each in Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador; Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, Brazil; Buenos Aires, Argentina; and Viña del Mar, Chile.

Most of the Chinese overseas police stations were located in Europe, including nine in Spain, the most of any country on the list: three in Madrid, three in Barcelona, two in Valencia and one in Santiago de Compostela.

Italy was hosting the second-most stations in Europe with four: Rome, Milan, Florence and Prato.

In France, three service centers were operating out of Paris. Portugal also hosted one each in Porto, Lisbon and Madeira. In United Kingdom, the report found two in London and one in Glasgow.

The Netherlands was hosting two such centers in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, respectively, while the Czech Republic had two in Prague. Budapest, Hungary, also had two, one for each of the Fuzhou and Qingtian police bureaus—a common phenomenon across Europe.

European countries each hosting only one Chinese police station included Dublin, Ireland; Bratislava, Slovakia; Frankfurt, Germany; Athens, Greece; Stockholm, Sweden; Vienna, Austria; Odessa, Ukraine; and Belgrade, Serbia.

In Africa, Benin City, Nigeria; Maseru, Lesotho; and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, each hosted one.

In Asia, at least one police center was operating out of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; Sirdaryo, Uzbekistan; Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei; Tokyo, Japan; and Phnom Penh, Cambodia...

https://www.newsweek.com/china-overseas-police-service-center-new-york-city-crime-1753242

How is a foreign police force able to operate in the United States?  Pray tell?

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11 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Also, regarding a possible Bolsonaro January 6th, attempt to challenge the election, etc, should be noticed most of his closest allies seem to have acknowledge his defeat already, though he himself hasn't said anything.

Good news… so far.  How quickly is the Brazilian President inaugurated?  It took a few weeks for the Trumpanistas to really get ramped up in the US… then 1/6/2021.

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45 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s a long time compared to most Nation-states…

To be fair, Brasil is bigger than most nation-states, and it's actually less time than the US if the election finishes in the 2nd round.

Anyway, sickest burn of the night was by Bolsonaro's former Health minister, Henrique Mandetta, who after the confirmation, just posted this More than anyone else in the country he can say that if Bolsonaro listened to him, he would have been reelected.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

To be fair, Brasil is bigger than most nation-states, and it's actually less time than the US if the election finishes in the 2nd round.

Anyway, sickest burn of the night was by Bolsonaro's former Health minister, Henrique Mandetta, who after the confirmation, just posted this More than anyone else in the country he can say that if Bolsonaro listened to him, he would have been reelected.

 

 

 

The interregnum in the US between the election, certification, and inauguration, is nuts.

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