Jump to content

Internation Events X - Why such a long break...?


TheLastWolf
 Share

Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

The fact you believe it was a fake attempt shows how the left is just as capable of delusion and fake news as the right.

You are right, I should have added ‘alleged’ in my previous post. I don’t believe it exactly, but I do have several questions about many weird things surrounding that event. But what matters now is that he’s been voted out, and I’m happy and very relieved. For the record, I don’t particularly like Lula, but there’s just no comparison between the two. Actually, it’s hard to compare Bolsonaro to anyone… The hatred, the divisiveness, the lies… he’s irredeemably disgusting and grotesque. And the cruelty, holy shit, the cruelty. I will never forget when he made fun of people struggling to breathe b/c of Covid on TV, repeatedly. 
I also think it was very important to reject Bolsonaro and his authoritarian style… I think it’s important globally to have a popular rejection of this deranged far right Christian nationalist tide that we see in so many places. Bolsonaro’s diehard fans are exactly like the diehard magas, and they scare the living daylights out of me. 
 

Lula’s first speech hit the right notes, he talked about uniting the country, about social justice, equality, the environment, etc.
As I said before, I’m not especially fond of him, so we’ll see.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looking at the toplines of Brazil's election results, it doesn't seem like Bolsonaro lost much support the past 4 years; in fact he even gained about 400,000 raw votes. The difference is that Lula gained 13 million votes from Haddad. In fact, going back aways it seems like there's a lot of leftwing voters that will only vote for Lula and no one else. Here's the leftwing candidate's presidential vote total going back to Lula's previous win:

2022 (Lula): 60.3 million

2018: 47 million

2014: 54.5 million

2010: 55.7 million

2006 (Lula): 58.3 million

So, despite his issues, perhaps Lula was the only who could've won?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Just looking at the toplines of Brazil's election results, it doesn't seem like Bolsonaro lost much support the past 4 years; in fact he even gained about 400,000 raw votes. The difference is that Lula gained 13 million votes from Haddad. In fact, going back aways it seems like there's a lot of leftwing voters that will only vote for Lula and no one else. Here's the leftwing candidate's presidential vote total going back to Lula's previous win:

2022 (Lula): 60.3 million

2018: 47 million

2014: 54.5 million

2010: 55.7 million

2006 (Lula): 58.3 million

So, despite his issues, perhaps Lula was the only who could've won?

Yeah, Bolsonaro got more votes than in ‘18 - same as Trump, right? Not the amount, just the fact that both got more votes the 2nd time. That’s also scary af… that there are millions and millions of people who love these individuals and are ready to vote for them again and again. 

There’s been reports of voter intimidation and attempts at suppression, mostly in areas where Lula had more support. And apparently w/ the eager support of the police, who are for the most part enthusiastic supporters of Bolsonaro. I have no idea whether this had any impact on the final numbers… my guess would be it didn’t, but no idea really.  :dunno:

And now the deranged base is blocking all major roads in and out of major cities in protest, claiming the election was stolen. Because of course they are. 

And yes, I think Lula was the only one who could defeat Bolsonaro. I’ve heard people say they actually hate Lula but would vote for him b/c 4 more years w/ Bolsonaro in charge would be devastating to an unimaginable degree. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't believe it's been twelve years since I lived in Argentina. We weren't allowed to go to Brazil, so all I have is a picture of me giving the country the bird from the other side of the rio in Iguazu. 

I'm ecstatic that Bolsonaro was defeated, but I'll wait until he's out of power to dance on his grave. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's only officially official when the new president is safely established in the President's office and been sworn in.

It may seem pedantic, but I think it's important to state that Lula officially won the election as declared by the TSE.  It remains to be seen whether Bolsonaro et al. will accept that result and Lula is properly installed/inaugurated, of course, but he was duly elected as the next president of Brazil.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Just looking at the toplines of Brazil's election results, it doesn't seem like Bolsonaro lost much support the past 4 years; in fact he even gained about 400,000 raw votes. The difference is that Lula gained 13 million votes from Haddad. In fact, going back aways it seems like there's a lot of leftwing voters that will only vote for Lula and no one else. Here's the leftwing candidate's presidential vote total going back to Lula's previous win:

2022 (Lula): 60.3 million

2018: 47 million

2014: 54.5 million

2010: 55.7 million

2006 (Lula): 58.3 million

So, despite his issues, perhaps Lula was the only who could've won?

I doubt it. A poll indicated that around half of Bolsonaro's voters said they only or mainly voted for him because Lula was the opponent (among Lula voters, it was around 45% of people saying their main or only reason was to remove Bolsonaro) so it's very plausible another left/center-left candidate could have beaten Bolsonaro in the 2nd round. The rejections rates of the two were similar (of course they vary, but usually were around 50% for Bolsonaro and 45% for Lula), so someone with a smaller one would have more of a chance.

The issue is that Lula would never allow another name in the left that wasn't controlled by him to run, even if that means the opposition victory (in 2018, polls indicated that Ciro Gomes had a better chance than Haddad due to lower rejection, but Lula refused any alliance that didn't had a candidate of his party at the top), and sabotaged people that had independent support and appeal. Dilma Rousseff and Haddad were allowed to run because she never ran for office before and Haddad had just come from flaming out spectacularly in his reelection bid for mayor for São Paulo in 2016 (he only got 16% of the vote), so he would always be the candidate, or someone controlled by him.

The circumstances also in each vote have to be considered- in 2014, Brazil was already beginning it's worst economic crisis since the Great Depression- if the election was 3 months later, Dilma Rousseff would have lost. In 2018, it was still reeling from this and the corruption scandals of the PT administration.

Also, Lula won by less than 2%, and that despite Bolsonaro's pandemic handling, economic crisis and political/corruption scandals, which were not a factor in 2018; it's just not plausible he would have won then if he was allowed to run, despite what the left in Brazil has been saying since then.

 

Edited by Winterfell is Burning
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How is a foreign police force able to operate in the United States?  Pray tell?

Easy, by signing a lease and then operating.

Don't forget, they aren't trying to enforce local laws. They are trying to intimidate their citizens who live abroad, probably by using their families back home as leverage in some way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Also, Lula won by less than 2%, and that despite Bolsonaro's pandemic handling, economic crisis and political/corruption scandals, which were not a factor in 2018; it's just not plausible he would have won then if he was allowed to run, despite what the left in Brazil has been saying since then.

But Bolsonaro has engrained his views on society after 4 years in power?  4 years ago, he didn't have a lot of traction in Congress or at State level (IIRC).  Now he has dragged a large portion of Brazilian society with him.  His passionate supporters (and detractors) have grown accordingly.  While has has used his growing influence to throw more mud at Lula (knowing he would be his biggest threat).

I remember reading over 4 years ago that Lula was a major threat and when he was removed, only Bolsonaro seemed to remain.

I wonder will a credible alternative to both emerge over the next 4 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Padraig said:

But Bolsonaro has engrained his views on society after 4 years in power?  4 years ago, he didn't have a lot of traction in Congress or at State level (IIRC).  Now he has dragged a large portion of Brazilian society with him.  His passionate supporters (and detractors) have grown accordingly.  While has has used his growing influence to throw more mud at Lula (knowing he would be his biggest threat).

I remember reading over 4 years ago that Lula was a major threat and when he was removed, only Bolsonaro seemed to remain.

I wonder will a credible alternative to both emerge over the next 4 years.

The 2nd round is ultimately a game of rejection, and four years ago, Lula's rejection was at least as big, if not bigger, while Bolsonaro was smaller.

Take for example the re-election of Eduardo Leite in Rio Grande do Sul, which I mentioned yesterday. He finished 11 points behind Bolsonaro's candidate in the first round, and just 2,000 votes ahead of the one that finished 3rd place. Yet he won comfortably in the 2nd round, by more than 10 points, because the other guy had a much bigger rejection.

The main issues that caused Bolsonaro's defeat- handling of the pandemic, abandoning his anti-corruption speech and promises, corruption scandals involving him and his children, poor handing of the economy, etc, were all absent, while Lula and the Workers Party were blamed for the mess the country was in.

And of course he already had a lot of support of the Brazilian society with him in 2018- that's how he won. His eldest son was elected Senator comfortably, his youngest was the most voted Congressman, the vast majority of governors supported him either in the first round or the 2nd, etc. I mean, some guy that was just a family friend that appeared on TV with Bolsonaro because they wanted a black guy and was allowed to run using his name (as Hélio Bolsonaro) was the most voted Congressman in Rio without ever running for office before, the party he was him came from obscurity to become the 2nd biggest in the House, etc.

Meanwhile, Haddad only had a failed term as mayor of São Paulo and managed more than 40% of the votes in the 2nd round with only Lula's support as argument and running as a stand-in- hard to believe there would be too many people that voted on Bolsonaro that would have voted for Lula in 2018 had he run instead, certainly not enough to make a 10.757.000  votes difference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

So I find it interesting that if Bolsonaro does plan on challenging the results, he's employing a decidedly different tack than Trump.  Namely, he's remained virtually silent since Lula was declared the winner.  Still, his supporters are blocking highways, so maybe this is a better strategy, at least for the time being.  :dunno:

I heard a report on NPR this morning that Bolosarno would concede but will not congratulate Lula?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I heard a report on NPR this morning that Bolosarno would concede but will not congratulate Lula?

The reporting I've read strongly suggests that with his allies abandoning him it's very unlikely he will mount a credible challenge, but at the same time he will still refuse to concede or congratulate.  I'd take that with a grain of salt though as it just seems to be assumptions from outside observers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Israel has its 5th election in 4 years today. Continued gridlock is the most likely result, but from the polls it does seem possible that Netanyahu will be able to put together an uncompromising far-right government. The big question seems to be which smaller parties don't make the cutoff to get Knesset seats and how those seats get distributed by the electoral formula, rather than any changes in voter trends.

Reports are that turnout is actually very high, rather than there being the anticipated voter fatigue. But it remains to be seen whether that extends to Arab Israelis as well. There were stories last week that the Arab parties were concerned that they'd miss the cutoff because their voters were giving up on voting after not seeing any improvements for years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, DMC said:

The reporting I've read strongly suggests that with his allies abandoning him it's very unlikely he will mount a credible challenge, but at the same time he will still refuse to concede or congratulate.  I'd take that with a grain of salt though as it just seems to be assumptions from outside observers.

Yeah, seems he won’t be able to do much. Of course key word is ‘seems’. I don’t know… saw a couple of legal experts saying his idea is to sit and wait to see what happens w/ the blockades. There are credible reports that the PRF (highway police) are not doing what they should be. I saw a couple of videos where prf officers are clearly saying to protesters things like, ‘we’re here for you’, ‘you’re in charge’. They held a news conference where they were acting a bit defensive. At the same time, they’ve just released an official statement saying that Bolsonaro’s lack of action in acknowledging the facts makes it very difficult for them to do their jobs. :dunno:
Some Bolsonaro supporters caught in the middle of this are not too happy. People trying to get home after a long day’s work who were trapped in buses for hours; some for 12+ hours - no food, water, loo, nothing. 
Rio and São Paulo (the cities, not the states) have deployed shock troops. 

There’s also now increasing talk of the MST (landless workers’ movement) calling for their supporters to gather and go to the hundreds of blockade sites and take matters into their own hands. And that would be a really, really bad idea, b/c it’s just the type of thing Bolsonaro could try to use to invoke some type of constitutional response, according to legal experts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

There’s also now increasing talk of the MST (landless workers’ movement) calling for their supporters to gather and go to the hundreds of blockade sites and take matters into their own hands. And that would be a really, really bad idea, b/c it’s just the type of thing Bolsonaro could try to use to invoke some type of constitutional response, according to legal experts. 

Yeah that'd be exactly the worst thing to do from a political standpoint.  It will be interesting to see how the PRF responds after this from the link above:

Quote

A Supreme Court judge on Monday night ordered the "immediate clearing of highways and public roads," in a statement.

The court ordered the PRF to take "all measures" needed to free the roads, threatening to fine or imprison its director for "disobedience" if the order was not carried out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...