UK Politics: who's in charge today?

[A wilding]

35 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I'm even starting to think that BJ winning might be what's best for the country. He'll be subject to a by-election within 6 weeks anyway, during which time he wouldn't be able to get anything done in parliament anyway, with all the rebels / abstentions.

Johnson would almost certainly try to end the Parliamentary Standards Committee investigation into his conduct in one way or another, knowing how fatal it would likely be for him - and possibly more to the point, how humiliating. Which will probably lead to a very interesting vote in parliament. Chaos indeed.

But I am also starting think it might be best in the long term for the Tories to be as thoroughly discredited as possible.

[DaveSumm]

I could see anyone except Boris standing aside if they came second to avoid the membership vote. Boggles the mind how we’ve come to this. Imagine if he comes back, then is forced to leave, yet another leadership election takes place and the clamour for a general election becomes too great to ignore. How many seats do they get then? That could be an extinction level event for them.

Seems like parties just get complacent after about this much time in office. Tories have been in for 12 years, Labour before that 13, Tories before that 18.

I just can’t wrap my head around anyone backing Johnson when the exact problem he had to leave over hasn’t even concluded. Astounding arrogance.

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, DaveSumm said:

I just can’t wrap my head around anyone backing Johnson when the exact problem he had to leave over hasn’t even concluded. Astounding arrogance.

When i see Boris supporters talking about him they use phrases like ‘ he’s a winner’ and ‘fired for cake’. Neither of which are true or make sense.

My guess is they are so utterly desperate to survive they are clinging on to 2019 as some golden era in Tory politics. Worth remembering that Boris won that landslide off the back of getting Brexit done and not being Corbyn. He doesn’t have any of that now and instead has a record of dishonesty and utter chaos within government. So he can’t be considered a winner.

And he wasn’t fired for cake, he was booted out because of his continual inability to control his government as well as all the lying and bullshit. 
 

Yes I want Boris to win because it will mean the Tories will hit absolute rock bottom and be out by next year. There is some possibility Sunak steadies the boat with a series of boring policies and no controversy, half the party hate him though so unlikely 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

3 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

Fuck me, listing his stepping down as an attribute and therefore, we need him back. 

Reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Sideshow Bob runs for mayor; “Mayor Quimby supports revolving door prisons. Mayor Quimby even released Sideshow Bob, a man twice convicted of attempted murder. 

Vote Sideshow Bob for Mayor.”

Boris first address to the British people:

 

[Tywin et al.]

2 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

Seems like parties just get complacent after about this much time in office. Tories have been in for 12 years, Labour before that 13, Tories before that 18.

Hence why I asked yesterday if people think over/under 25% of elected officials prioritize the public good over their own interests. First time candidates probably believe they're a champion of their constituents, but after a few years that tends to go away and the top priority becomes keeping one's job. 

[karaddin]

Clearly I'm more pessimistic than all of you, I'm half expecting born again Boris to display dignity and contrition for 2 interviews, and inexplicably get another honeymoon period as a bunch of people spontaneously forget so much of this mess is his fault. He might even be competitive in the next election and it will make as much sense as Palpatine somehow returning to life

[williamjm]

Boris seems to be having problems with getting support from leading Brexiters, he does have Rees-Mogg on his side but Suella Braverman, Steve Baker, David Davis and his former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost are all backing Sunak.

3 hours ago, A wilding said:

Johnson would almost certainly try to end the Parliamentary Standards Committee investigation into his conduct in one way or another, knowing how fatal it would likely be for him - and possibly more to the point, how humiliating. Which will probably lead to a very interesting vote in parliament. Chaos indeed.

I do almost wonder if Boris became PM if he might call a snap General Election to try to pre-empt the committee. I can't see other Tory MPs being keen on that but Boris might believe he can defy the polls.

[A wilding]

34 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Clearly I'm more pessimistic than all of you, I'm half expecting born again Boris to display dignity and contrition for 2 interviews, and inexplicably get another honeymoon period as a bunch of people spontaneously forget so much of this mess is his fault. He might even be competitive in the next election and it will make as much sense as Palpatine somehow returning to life

The brief fake contrition thing is of course a no brainer, being something Johnson has done many times before. From the BBC:

 

Quote

 

Johnson-backing MP for Buckingham Greg Smith has told the BBC's Politics South programme he has had two calls with the former PM and has been assured he will run a very different Downing Street administration.

"I think all of us lost our patience over the Partygate issue. But I think he has genuinely learned from those mistakes. He is pledging a very different, tighter Downing Street if he’s prime minister again," Smith says.

 

... but anyone who still believes that sort of thing from Johnson by now, even for a moment, is a complete idiot (or perhaps just desperate).

[Varysblackfyre321]

 

[dog-days]

3 hours ago, karaddin said:

Clearly I'm more pessimistic than all of you, I'm half expecting born again Boris to display dignity and contrition for 2 interviews, and inexplicably get another honeymoon period as a bunch of people spontaneously forget so much of this mess is his fault. He might even be competitive in the next election and it will make as much sense as Palpatine somehow returning to life

Depressingly, yes, I think you're probably right. My nightmare's nightmare future is Boris winning the next GE. 

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, dog-days said:

Depressingly, yes, I think you're probably right. My nightmare's nightmare future is Boris winning the next GE. 

But isn't this situation suppose to be generationally damaging for the Tories?

...

[mormont]

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-pulls-out-of-conservative-leadership-race-12728576

I totally could have won and absolutely had all the nominations I needed, but obviously I won't now be telling you their names because of party unity, will this do.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So after Mordaunt refused to drop out and back him (despite him not needing her votes) he drops out.

PM Sunak it is. Mordaunt's campaign has a feel of going nowhere, and that's all she wrote.

[mormont]

It was very public spirited of Boris Johnson to cut short his holiday and rush home to explain to his supporters how he wasn't going to stand for the leadership after all, wasn't it?

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yep, indeed it was.

[dog-days]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

But isn't this situation suppose to be generationally damaging for the Tories?

...

Wavering voters would switch to remain in 2016, various people hastened to tell me that Trump couldn't possibly win later that year, we've had swings to the far right or to champions of 'tradition' across Europe - also, put bluntly, a large part of the English electorate is extremely fucking stupid, and will believe whatever Rupert Murdoch's arsewipe press tells them to believe. 

ETA: Johnson's pulled out! Phew. Were an iron maiden and thumbscrews required?  Big question now is whether Mordaunt can get her 100 nominations. It wasn't looking good earlier today. This might be a coronation for Sunak. 

Listened to the first part of this clip of a Tory party member calling in to Sangita Myska and got sourer than usual. Yes, the Tory membership are, thank god, not representative of the country, at the same time their views can be found in diluted form among a significant swathe of the public.

 

[mormont]

Timing is everything.

ETA - maybe if I get this in really quick?

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

23 minutes ago, dog-days said:

Wavering voters would switch to remain in 2016, various people hastened to tell me that Trump couldn't possibly win later that year, we've had swings to the far right or to champions of 'tradition' across Europe - also, put bluntly, a large part of the English electorate is extremely fucking stupid, and will believe whatever Rupert Murdoch's arsewipe press tells them to believe. 

Listened to the first part of this clip of a Tory party member calling in to Sangita Myska and got sourer than usual. Yes, the Tory membership are, thank god, not representative of the country, at the same time their views can be found in diluted form among a significant swathe of the public.

 

She ripped “Jerry” a new one and “Jerry” all but admitted his problem is that Sunak has brown skin.  Well done that was a neat bit of conversation to get Jerry to admit that.

[DaveSumm]

So is there any chance Mordaunt has the 100 votes? How does she poll with the membership? Or does she pull out tomorrow, Sunak is sworn in and it’s a four day turnaround on PM’s?

[williamjm]

19 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

So is there any chance Mordaunt has the 100 votes? How does she poll with the membership? Or does she pull out tomorrow, Sunak is sworn in and it’s a four day turnaround on PM’s?

It would probably require most of Boris' backers to switch to her and then finding some other supporters from somewhere, it seems a long shot.